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EIA Projects Fossil Fuel Consumption Will Continue To Rise

September 24, 2019
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By Paul Homewood

  

The US Energy Information Administration has published its latest annual International Energy Outlook.

The key projection is that world energy consumption will rise by nearly 50% up to 2050:

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https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41433

 

But the killer punchline is that, although renewables will more than double in output, oil, gas and coal will all grow as well:

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Greta won’t be happy!

32 Comments
  1. September 24, 2019 7:11 pm

    This should come as no surprise to anybody with any sense. Mind you I don’t believe renewables will increase to anywhere near the extent shown.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 25, 2019 1:42 pm

      Agreed. I don’t think it will survive reality.

  2. Broadlands permalink
    September 24, 2019 8:24 pm

    It should not be overlooked that “renewables” are really “replaceables” …they wear out. More importantly, they do not take CO2 out of the atmosphere. In the absence of carbon, they are supposed to provide the energy to do that job. Not a well-planned future for those concerned about CO2.

  3. September 24, 2019 8:35 pm

    Nightmare news for the Nordic numpty.

    • Malcolm Oliver permalink
      September 24, 2019 9:47 pm

      The child is ill. The parents are the numpties, but nightmare news nevertheless.

  4. Joe Public permalink
    September 24, 2019 10:36 pm

    Gotta love the way the USA blatantly culturally appropriates our Thermal Units. 😉

    • Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
      September 25, 2019 4:24 am

      I recall the Brits gave up on ‘pounds’ and Fahrenheit temps.
      However, British thermal unit sounds so sophisticated and Royal. Insofar as y’all didn’t want it – don’t complain.

      • September 25, 2019 6:46 am

        Hey, we managed to save the ‘pound’, the stone and the mile and we still drive on the correct side of the road. It is the evil EU which has been trying to get rid of all British units, but we continue to resist and still use lots of the good old British units.

      • dave permalink
        September 25, 2019 7:33 am

        A BTU is the amount of energy required to raise one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit. Since Mr Fahrenheit was in fact HERR Fahrenheit, the British have appropriated the BTU from the Germans! But Britain has had German Monarchs for three hundred years, and so…

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 25, 2019 1:43 pm

        Hedgelaying competitions require two rods of hedge to be laid.

      • dave permalink
        September 26, 2019 12:39 pm

        “two rods of hedge…”

        Is exactly eleven yards, which is half a cricket pitch.

        Four rods is a cricket pitch, which is as far as I can sprint – at my age – before collapsing.

        Ten cricket pitches is a furlong, which is as far as I can trot before collapsing.

        Eight furlongs is a mile, which is as far as I can walk before collapsing.

        All natural measures based on human experience.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 26, 2019 1:47 pm

        4 rods make a chain. If you travel by train there are distance signs on bridges in miles and chains.

    • September 25, 2019 12:38 pm

      Now lookie here. We had this little spat from 1776 until 1781. One of the Commemorative pins I wear on my official DAR (Daughters of the American Revolution) ribbons is “Victory at Yorktown.”

      When Cornwallis cited illness and refused to attend the surrender ceremony, General O’Hara led the British army to the surrender. His first attempt was to surrender to Rochambeau (nice try), but he declined and and pointed to Washington. O’Hara then offered his sword to Washington, who also refused and motioned to Benjamin Lincoln. The surrender finally took place when Washington’s second-in-command accepted the sword of Cornwallis’ deputy. BTW, the DAR Chapter in France is the Rochambeau Chapter. AND there are 2 in the United Kingdom (St. James and the one I am an associate member of: Walter Hines Page Chapter of London).

      As the victors, we got to set our own standards however we pleased…..and we have. After listening to President Trump’s speech, delivered in a deliberately measured and firm demeanor, to the UN yesterday (twice), I do believe that he and George Washington would have gotten along very well.

      • Micky Redmire permalink
        September 26, 2019 6:35 am

        It’s a bizarre world where Trump – with all his faults – appears to be far more competent than the current crop of Britain’s leading politicians.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 26, 2019 1:49 pm

        To be fair Micky, it is not much of a challenge to be more capable than the bawling children that inhabit our parliament. Boris was doing us a favour by closing it down for 5 weeks.

      • September 27, 2019 12:39 pm

        People seem to find fault with Donald Trump over things I see as strengths. He is an “outsider” who has not been a part of the political club. He went to the Wharton School of Business of The University of Pennsylvania (also Ivy League) instead of Harvard or Yale (big whoop). They don’t like that he is very plain spoken. As a developer and builder, you have to be. He learned a lot with his father from a very young age about the business of building. He is honest and he listens to others, especially those with boots on the ground. All of these things drive the elitist East Coast-West Coast crowd nuts–but I always say it IS a short trip.

        As for what many men experience at a stage in their life, he dealt with it some years ago. He felt that his behavior was “sowing the seeds of my own destruction.” He wanted a stable marriage and to focus on his children. He had already sworn off ever smoking, drinking or using drugs after watching his older brother, Fred, die from alcoholism. In 1998 he made the decision to get the rest of his life in order. It was that year he first met Melania. They were engaged in 2004 and married the next year. I believe that his stable marriage to our lovely First Lady and the success of his children are evident.

        People who get to know him, all say how kind and personable he is. He engages with people and has a devastating sense of humor. We see that humor is some of his tweets. He is comfortable with who he is and what his task is. The Lord has blessed him with the much needed backbone of steel.

  5. September 24, 2019 10:51 pm

    hmm, all the renewables built up today are responsible for 1% of total energy needs. With total energy needs increasing 2% per year they will only ever be a marginal provider.

  6. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 25, 2019 11:05 am

    See the BP.com website for massive detail. At 2.9% 2018’s energy consumption was double the 2007-2017 average. Hooray for the poor of the planet and the children! Thunberg is delighted, I expect.

    • September 25, 2019 12:37 pm

      It’s war…

      GRETA THUNBERG IS ‘LIKELY TO ANTAGONISE SOCIETIES’ EMMANUEL MACRON WARNS
      Date: 25/09/19 Daily Mail

      French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Greta Thunberg is ‘radical’ and will likely ‘antagonise societies’ after she filed a lawsuit against France and four other countries over their greenhouse gas emissions.

      https://www.thegwpf.com/greta-thunberg-is-likely-to-antagonise-societies-emmanuel-macron-warns/

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 25, 2019 1:51 pm

        I think her constant whining antagonises most people. Nice tweet by Donald after her speech.

  7. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 25, 2019 11:07 am

    Increase

  8. Michael Adams permalink
    September 25, 2019 11:25 am

    It’s actually very scary. Scary people are getting in to positions of power and influence. If these predictions are anywhere near correct what on earth is in store for us as the Climate Emergency Brigade realise that they cannot reach their objectives without even more draconian methods of making our life uncomfortable. When will the backlash occur? We seem to be indulging these lunatics so far but it must come to and end. What then?

  9. Ivan permalink
    September 25, 2019 12:21 pm

    Old British units are only good old British units if you consider obfuscation to be a good thing. Metric units are far easier to use and understand. Fake news is more difficult to get away with in metric units.

    When I see something expressed in BTUs I have to google a conversion to kWh. Only then I can do some sums to understand what it means. Mboe – millions of barrels of oil equivalent – is another obfuscatory energy unit still sadly much used in published statistics. Again you can’t do any sums with it until you google a conversion to a sensible unit.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      September 25, 2019 4:18 pm

      The UK government had invented a new very flexible energy unit. It’s the “home powered”. It has totally different meanings according to context, and is regularly redefined.

      I don’t think that using metric units is entirely the way to go, and it still leaves lots of room for confusion about what the data really represent, particularly when you are looking at so called energy equivalent data. There are plenty of other inconsistencies in metric data use. Some prefer to use Joules while others use Watt-hours. In the end you need to learn quite a bit about the nuances of energy measurement whatever units it may be quoted in. Some units relate to pricing as well as industry practice in measuring quantities. Some of the industry units make for much easier conversions that can be done in your head for first approximations.

      • dave permalink
        September 26, 2019 12:53 pm

        “…easier conversions…”

        Which, once known, are always remembered. For instance, a gallon of water weighs 10 pounds, or 160 ounces, whence “add a pint of water” in a recipe means add 20 ounces by weight.

  10. A C Osborn permalink
    September 25, 2019 12:56 pm

    I just cannot believe that renewables will hit that level by 250Quadrillian BTUs by 2050 for one simple reason.
    The 2018 value of 50Quadrillian BTUs includes Biomass and Hydro, Biomass includes wood & dung in the 3rd world countries, how is that going to increase?
    Do they really think that Hydro, which as Cour de Lion says above BP show is 2/3rds of Renewables is going to increase 5 fold by 2050.
    So therefore they are predicting that Wind & Solar are not only going to replace 3rd world Biomass but increase from 3.6% to over 25% of global use, a 6 fold increase.
    In light of recent depressed new Renewable investment in Europe I just can’t see it happening.

    • Sobaken permalink
      September 25, 2019 1:09 pm

      https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/ieo2019.pdf
      Page 46
      Yes, they really believe that wind and solar are going to grow to that extent.

      • A C Osborn permalink
        September 25, 2019 2:23 pm

        Sorry, I do not see it on page 46, it is on page 89 onwards.
        Methinks that is cloud cuckoo land thinking.
        They don’t seem to be aware of any of the problems involving Renewable Penetration on Grids, or back up requirements.
        It is a shame most of us will not still be around to see how close they are, if it is anything like Climate Predictions it will be no where near, especially as they have almost ignored Nuclear completely.

    • Russ Wood permalink
      September 25, 2019 3:10 pm

      Well, if biomass increases that much, then bye-bye to all of the world’s forests!

  11. It doesn't add up... permalink
    September 25, 2019 2:09 pm

    Interestingly, 3 out of 4 of BP’s scenarios this year show rising fossil fuel consumption through 2040 (which is their time horizon).

    https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2019.pdf

  12. September 26, 2019 1:10 am

    Ruinable Energy is a…

    Wasteful

    Destructive

    Criminal Conspiracy

    Pipe Dream

    Bottom line, the corruption is the only “renewable” in this equation.

    It’s to make the wealthy richer, the poor poorer, and keep the politicians in power who will enable the scam.

  13. Crowcatcher permalink
    September 27, 2019 6:23 am

    All this talk about Btus v kWhrs, wasn’t Watt Scottish?
    1 Watt = 1Amp x 1Volt – nothing metric there!

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