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1979-2017 Warming Can Be Explained By Natural Forcing

October 30, 2019

By Paul Homewood

From No Tricks Zone:



The last 40 years of global temperature changes can be radiatively explained by a natural reduction in cloud cover.

From 1979 to 2011, satellite data provide documentation of a reduction in cloud cover and aerosol depth that allowed an additional 2.3 W/m² of positive shortwave energy to be absorbed by the Earth’s surface rather than reflected to space.

This change in absorbed solar radiation can account for the energy imbalance and warming during this period far better than the much smaller 0.2 W/m² forcing associated with a +22 ppm CO2 change over 10 years (representing just 10% of the overall trend in downwelling longwave).


Full post here.

  1. john cooknell permalink
    October 30, 2019 12:43 pm

    “How dare you” this isn’t what Greta told us so it must wrong!

    Look the “hockey stick” MBH 98 is the truth, how many times do I have to tell you.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      October 30, 2019 2:02 pm

      Even the alarmists have abandoned the ‘hookey stick’ and the crook who created it.

      • Emrys Jones permalink
        October 30, 2019 6:24 pm

        But not the 97%, that still gets quoted, even by people employed as Climate Scientists.

    • Luc Ozade permalink
      October 31, 2019 4:58 am

      “If you don’t take any notice of what I’m saying, I will stamp my foot. Then you’ll be sorry!”

  2. Douglas Brodie permalink
    October 30, 2019 2:17 pm

    I made exactly the same case in my recent correspondence with BEIS on the pointlessness of their outrageously expensive and damaging net zero emissions policy. All it needed was some easy-to-access public data and a bit of common sense. See the Commentary section of this multi-part correspondence posted at:

  3. October 30, 2019 4:11 pm

    But, of course, the reduction in Cloud cover is because the extra CO2 ate the clouds.

  4. October 30, 2019 4:12 pm

    Any other start year except 1979, the coldest year, shows a lot less warming and often shows cooling. Thus no cloud cover theory required.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      October 30, 2019 4:49 pm

      Except of course something stopped it getting colder after 79 and conversely something made it get colder up to 79.
      Got a better answer?

      • NeilC permalink
        October 30, 2019 5:08 pm

        CO2 and 2OC?

  5. NeilC permalink
    October 30, 2019 4:19 pm

    It has never been about doubling of the well-mixed atmospheric CO2 and dangerous temperature rise. The hypothesis has always been wrong.

    For the last 21 years the correlation between the CET and CO2 is negative, meaning it is impossible for CO2 to increase temperature, at least in the UK/sarc

  6. Emrys Jones permalink
    October 30, 2019 6:31 pm

    The Democrats will pay no attention at all to cooling in Russia, no attention to cold summers in South America, or the advancing cold in China, but …

    Looks like they are going to have another very cold winter in the northern US – that matters. Sooner or later they will have to acknowledge it because their base will demand it. My guess is that being ignorant politicians, when they change their minds it will be sudden and they will get nasty with the GW crowd.

    Then we will discover how stupid the world has been to conned by these Republican Warmists inflicting their scam on the brave working people of the US etc etc, but the Democrats knew all along it was rubbish, but what could they do?

  7. October 30, 2019 9:14 pm

    Hopefully these articles can get to our government in Canada .We are about to get hammered with a larger carbon tax. We live in a cold climate.Home heating bills are going to go up

    • john cooknell permalink
      October 30, 2019 9:31 pm

      I wouldn’t get your hopes up, the political urge to leap into the Abyss is very strong, especially when you are “saving the planet”.

      Good Luck!

  8. Gamecock permalink
    October 30, 2019 9:37 pm

    I cringe when I hear the word ‘forcing.’

    Nothing is being forced.

    • dave permalink
      October 31, 2019 9:21 am

      “Forcing” has a sensible, non-emotional, meaning in the mathematical analysis of certain, simple, engineering systems:

      Click to access 250bookSec3.6.pdf

      Trouble comes – inevitably – when the (now-technical) word is carelessly used in the pretended analysis of a different – and harder – class of problem.

  9. Athelstan. permalink
    October 30, 2019 10:17 pm

    “natural” not forced – just NATURAL..

    that’s the word, all else is: just political mythologizing of a non existent effect and forced fed chimera.

  10. Luc Ozade permalink
    October 31, 2019 4:52 am

    As very many of us have said all along: “It’s the sun, stupid!”

    • dave permalink
      October 31, 2019 9:28 am

      ‘…the sun…’

      Which is still spotless. The amount of (cloud-seeding?) cosmic rays reaching earth, has risen 20% since 2015.

  11. October 31, 2019 5:44 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  12. Michael Adams permalink
    October 31, 2019 2:05 pm

    Science is not my strong point as will now be demonstrated but, whilst I get the correlation between lack of cloud and higher temperature, I don’t see what is causing the lack of cloud. I always thought that higher sea temperatures produced more cloud just like heating a saucepan full of water producing water vapour.

    Also, I thought that the GW boys were putting the lack of cloud cover down to increases in CO2 so they were acknowledging the correlation.

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