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Demand For Natural Gas In 2050

November 7, 2019

By Paul Homewood

Pleased to see my letter in today’s Telegraph, along with another appropriate response to the ban on fracking:

image

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/11/07/lettersthe-one-priority-election-leaving-eu-liberal-establishment/

 

 

Just to recap on the CCC’s projections, gas power generation (with CCS) is planned to be 151 TWh. This is an increase on last year’s figure of 119 TWh:

 18_thumb.jpg https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/06/16/net-zero-power-scenarios/

Projected hydrogen demand is less certain, given the uncertainties around the deployment of heat pumps, but could vary between 53-225 TWh.

Natural gas used for domestic heating is currently 309 TWh. However, the steam reforming process will waste some of the energy used, and more where CCS is involved. Therefore, at the top end of the range, demand for gas for hydrogen production will almost certainly be much higher than now.

image_thumb-125

 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/08/26/is-hydrogen-a-solution/

31 Comments leave one →
  1. Phillip Bratby permalink
    November 7, 2019 7:33 pm

    Well done Paul. Of course you would never be allowed to tell the truth like this on the BBC or Channel 4. The likes of Harrabin ensure that the truth never appears on the BBC.

  2. jack broughton permalink
    November 7, 2019 8:07 pm

    What is especially concerning in the CCCs report is that they assume technologies can be developed that are as yet totally unproven at scale.

    Woeldwide hydrogen production and storage is on a much smaller scale than is needed to replace natural gas. CCS has a recent history as a failed technology (even before the storage side is considered) and the actual capital cost and efficiency of the process is not known at an acceptable accuracy. As a complex chemical plant, it is very unlikely that CCS will be suitable for peaking plants as in present CCGT usage on either cost or performance terms.

    But hey, what do facts matter when one is saving the world.

  3. Man at the Back permalink
    November 7, 2019 8:18 pm

    O/T – Sorry.

    It appears that the No Tricks Zone website is being diverted at the moment. My setup (BT Virus Protect etc). is blocking that diversion as a malicious site.

    I am not sure how to make Pierre Gosselin aware of the fact?!

    • November 7, 2019 8:28 pm

      I get the same message

      I’ll email Pierre

      • Man at the Back permalink
        November 7, 2019 8:36 pm

        Thanks Paul.

      • Mike Jackson permalink
        November 8, 2019 10:55 am

        And me. From yesterday evening and ongoing.

      • mikewaite permalink
        November 8, 2019 11:29 am

        No problem using Firefox and Kaspersky Security. Off topic slightly, but there is an important discussion there, using recent literature, on the expected North Atlantic SST which will impact our weather here in the UK and make Govt decisions on natural gas critical for our future comfort (and wallets).

  4. Harry Passfield permalink
    November 7, 2019 8:31 pm

    What on earth is the point of taking a natural fuel, which works well enough for heating purposes in a well-established network – and converting it to another, which has huge costs in conversion of transport medium and network management – not to mention it’s power-factor due to NG to H conversion?

    • Mack permalink
      November 7, 2019 9:19 pm

      In a sane world Harry, there isn’t one. Welcome to the ‘Climate Emergency’, where virtue signalling insanity, with regards to energy policy, reigns supreme. Well, it does in the West anyway. Our Eastern friends are laughing their socks off at our suicidal desire to cripple our economies, livelihoods and, ultimately, our way of lives on the cradle of putting a sticking plaster on the planet. A planet that doesn’t give a s**t what we think anyway as history and geology have demonstrated time after time.

    • mwhite permalink
      November 8, 2019 4:47 pm

      “not to mention it’s power-factor due to NG to H conversion?” and not to mention the potency of the greenhouse gas, water vapour

      https://image.slidesharecdn.com/greenhousegasesandtheireffect-140501022243-phpapp01/95/greenhouse-gases-and-their-effect-5-638.jpg?cb=1398911058

    • Steve permalink
      November 9, 2019 11:13 am

      They are planning to run HGVs, shipping, industry, some backup generation, buses and heatpumps by linking a fuel cell to them. These cost about £14k at present.

  5. Phoenix44 permalink
    November 8, 2019 8:55 am

    I have often wondered what would end your hugely successful Western civilisation, and now we know – childish m, self-important Millenarinism driven by entitled, ignorant elites who cannot conceive of what their lives will be like when their policies are enacted.

    • Man at the Back permalink
      November 8, 2019 9:43 am

      Yes Phoenix, there you have it in a nutshell – except of course the Elites will be exempt from the effects of their policies for the masses, just like Soviet Russia or China in Mao’s days.

  6. Stonyground permalink
    November 8, 2019 10:13 am

    According to the radio ads, electricity demand is due to double by 2050. Fortunately if we all get a smart meter that will sort it without us having to build any extra capacity.

    • A man of no rank permalink
      November 8, 2019 4:51 pm

      In the near future, so I read, our electric cars will store all the energy required for peak demand – fed backwards through our (very) smart meters.
      Our cars store the excess electricity from the grid – perhaps from even more windmills – and the perenial peak demand problem has been solved. Two of the major benefits from smart meters.
      Taken from a four page advert in this weeks Daily Mail – so it must be true!

  7. November 8, 2019 11:36 am

    While libmob go on about right wing conspiracy, that non-lefty orgs know each other and have overlap .. I see Harra and Hickman, Carbon pants have each other on speedial

    • styleyd permalink
      November 8, 2019 12:53 pm

      I rate the environment quite important particularly wildlife and litter, because these are things I see on a daily basis. But not Climate Change which I’m still waiting to spot after 36 years. Roger Harrabin seems to conflate the two.

      • styleyd permalink
        November 8, 2019 12:57 pm

        Also goes to show how public opinion is swayed by the MSM. I wonder if Avian Flu pandemics and Antibiotic resistance were given a headline scare-story each day how much higher the Health category would be.

      • November 9, 2019 11:22 am

        Quite. The unfortunate side effect of obsessing about CO2 is that the actual environment gets forgotten about.

    • Athelstan. permalink
      November 8, 2019 2:05 pm

      horrorbin and hickboy, are, two Socialist one track polarized visioned mental spas’s though, and empty headed gullible beyond all reason.

      i can’t ever recall anyone coming up to me in the pub and saying ‘ooh it’s terrible about them thar polar bears…………innit?’

  8. Vernon E permalink
    November 8, 2019 12:03 pm

    Lucky you Paul – the Telegraph did NOT publish my letter on the same subject. Fracking in the UK is over. Nothing to do with politics or protests or any of those things, just simple geology. Shale gas production depends upon the permeability of the shale which varies widely and as Cuadrilla’s first test results clearly showed, the gas didn’t flow. They even fracked up to a 2.9 Richter disturbance and it still didn’t flow so now they have demobilised the site. Its over – nature won.

    • JerryC permalink
      November 8, 2019 12:44 pm

      If permeability varies widely, one test well can’t determine whether fracking is feasible across the entire country.

    • Kevan Daly permalink
      November 8, 2019 3:16 pm

      “It’s over – nature won”.

      Vernon, you need to read the notice lodged by Cuadrilla’s parent, A. J. Lucas, with the Australian Stock Exchange on the 4’th of November. Keep in mind the seriousness of misleading investors with such a notice.

      Flow rates at PNR2 are still being evaluated..

      Reading this notice I’d suggest that “fracking” has merely been kicked into touch until after Brexit.

    • saparonia permalink
      November 8, 2019 7:13 pm

      I have to say that I’m relieved about fracking but we should really open the pits as soon as possible. There’s going to be colossal maintenance needed the longer it’s left, not to mention that the experienced miners are ageing, and we only have nuclear as the other alternative.
      As for that, the pit beneath where I sit was filled with Sellerfield and the radon will filter out indefinitely..

  9. Coeur de Lion permalink
    November 8, 2019 2:22 pm

    In The Times today is a depressing letter by Myles Allen, Oxford U, Joanna Haigh FRS, Gabriele Hegerl FRS, Michael Maslin FRGS, Martin Siegert FRSE saying that the world is once again looking to the UK for leadership at next year’s ‘critical’ summit and that we must be demonstrably on track for net-zero emissions and focus relentlessly on brokering a summit agreement that finally turns the tide against rising global emissions thus providing a material example of climate leadership on a world that badly needs it. Unquote.
    How can these people go on like this? From where comes their appalling ignorance of the facts? Do they ever take a look at the world beyond Dover? Or check out BP’s energy source forecasts? That UK can ‘lead’ anything in this field is grotesque uneducated drivelling hubris. Wake up and grow up, you dreadful nincompoops.

  10. November 8, 2019 6:55 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.

  11. November 9, 2019 8:43 am

    I disagree with Paul on this one. So far fracking on land in the UK has not provided lots of gas as promised. Despite the predictions of lots of gas that could be delivered. They have had to stop due to earth tremors that reach the limits that the Fracking industry have agreed on. So a ban will make no difference to imports.
    I think most of the UK is to populated for fracking to work on land. There are areas that have been mined heavily. Also the amount of water required for fracking during summer can be a problem. Plus the geology and risk of earth tremors damaging buildings . There is the risk to polluting water aquifers. Fracking offshore though should work. There has been a lot of gas and oil found off the Welsh coast that has yet to be exploited.

  12. Steve permalink
    November 9, 2019 11:08 am

    The CCC estimates the cost of gas in 2050 at roughly the same as at present. They don’t say whether this is with the carbon tax taken into account. They will need to replace it by taxing something else if this is their game. The whole thing is full of holes. When is the GWPF detailed assessment coming?

  13. Vernon E permalink
    November 9, 2019 4:10 pm

    m white: some confusion. hydraulic fracture of conventional oil and gas fields is a long practiced tertiary recovery technique, nothing to see there. the current controversy relates to fracking shale strata, whole different story.

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