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Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Steady Upward Trend

December 4, 2019

By Paul Homewood


Carbon Tracker have calculated some provisional data for global carbon dioxide emissions this year. They show a rise of 0.6%, slightly slower than the last two years, but this is largely due to a slowdown in economic growth.

From Voice of America:



Carbon dioxide emissions rose in 2019 for the third straight year, according to the latest Global Carbon Project estimate, and do not look set to fall before the end of the next decade.

This is more bad news for United Nations negotiators in Madrid to consider as they aim to hammer out rules for implementing the 2015 Paris international agreement on limiting climate change.

This year’s 0.6% growth in CO2 emissions is slower than the previous two years. Steep declines in coal use in the United States and Europe, combined with weaker global economic growth, were behind the slowdown, the report says.

But slowing growth is not enough. A recent United Nations report said emissions must decline by at least 2.7% per year to keep the planet from overheating.

Emissions look likely to continue in the wrong direction for years to come, according to Stanford University Earth scientist Rob Jackson, chair of the Global Carbon Project, the international research consortium that published the findings Tuesday in Earth System Science Data.

"I am, I have to confess, not very optimistic that in a five-to-year timescale, we’ll see a peak in emissions," he said. "I hope I’m wrong. I really hope I’m wrong."


The figure of 2.7% pa relates to the 2C warming target. In reality, empirical data suggests that global temperatures won’t go beyond that level by 2100 anyway, even if emissions do not fall.

But, according to the UN, to keep temperature rise below 1.5C (measured from pre-industrial), emissions would need to be 55% lower than in 2018 by 2030. Clearly a drop of 5.5% a year is pie in the sky, even if emissions stopped increasing now.

  1. Alec Gwynn permalink
    December 4, 2019 7:20 pm

    Paul..many thanks for continuing to post some reality on the subject of , ‘so called’, ‘climate change’…I 100% agree with you

  2. Broadlands permalink
    December 4, 2019 7:33 pm

    “But slowing growth is not enough. A recent United Nations report said emissions must decline by at least 2.7% per year to keep the planet from overheating.”

    When will these UN people (and other policy-makers) learn that lowering carbon fuel emissions will NOT lower the emissions already added to the atmosphere? When will they learn that rapid lowering of our use of carbon fuels must mean the rapid reduction in the production of oil and gas and its availability to the general public world-wide. Costs will rise steeply and long distance transportation would come to a halt…. waiting on the global availability of PV vehicles? That would be a problem much more serious than “global warming” ever could be.

  3. December 4, 2019 7:38 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate-

  4. Washington 76 permalink
    December 4, 2019 7:54 pm

    Apr 26, 2016 Rising CO2 Levels Greening Earth

    From a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States.

  5. I_am_not_a_robot permalink
    December 4, 2019 8:06 pm

    A glance at a graphic of their ambitious aims shows ‘slowing growth is not enough’ is an understatement, they want to collapse the World economy as if that were preferable to the planet “overheating”, whatever that means:

    Ross McKitrick’s update of surface models vs. surface observations shows that, even assuming all the current warming is due to increased GHGs, the trend is below even the RCP4.5 scenario — data ‘adjustments’ notwithstanding:

    Click to access model_obs_comp_nov_2019.pdf

    • Broadlands permalink
      December 4, 2019 8:29 pm

      Lowering 40 gigatons of fossil fuel emissions a year in the next 30 years is more than a billion tons a year to remove and safely store. An ambitious goal is an understatement simply because there is no current technology that could do it. The CCS industry says that ~1.5 million tons a year is the current level, and it would take 2500 new facilities globally over 20 years to remove 3750 million tons…less than one part-per-million.

  6. December 4, 2019 8:28 pm

    Is there anyone in the whole world of commentary on the ecology of the planet who actually understands the truth of how and why we find ourselves where we do AND who is also prepared to declare in public the glaringly obvious facts to the rest of the world?

    The simple honest truth shines out of every news broadcast, on every motorway every day in this country, at every railway station in the land and across the world no matter where you look.

    The problems affecting the planet are not insoluble, the difficulties we have been seeing getting worse for the last 50 years or so have not just arrived, the issue has been there for all to see going back to my early days as a boy in the 1950s.

    Planet Earth is simply overrun with people.

    There is no point telling people to change their lifestyles now (less flying, less meat eating), it’s way too late for that.

    Sadly, what is needed is a great many fewer people. Medicine and better diplomacy has increased human life expectancy significantly. That seems like a good thing, until you come face to face with the generational consequences of ideas that seemed so welcome at the time.

    I am not seeking permission to wipe out half the planet’s population but I would be astonished and very pleasantly surprised to hear anyone in the vanguard of the ecology movement beginning to address the real underlying problem that the Earth faces.

    Too many people – nothing else matters.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      December 4, 2019 9:12 pm

      Can I suggest you read Hans Rosling’s “Factfulness”. Learn why the neo-Malthusians are wrong and always have been.

      Every person currently alive could be given one-quarter acre of land in Australia and have Tasmania and the rest of the planet left over. Population is not, per se, a problem. There is more than sufficient usable land to feed a population twice the current nine billion which will in any case start to decline by this stage of next century.

      Always provided, that is, that we can put an end to this idiocy before we really do find ourselves back in the pre-industrial era!

    • Crowcatcher permalink
      December 5, 2019 7:15 am

      You are quite right.
      We have come to our current position because fossil fuel use has allowed to increase food production hugely, but, what many posting on here forget is that all Earth’s resources are finite.
      One day we will exhaust extractable supplies of them – what then?
      We have to think about how great-a-population can be sustained without them (fossil fuels) – certainly NOT 15 billion.
      Incidentally, I don’t believe one word of the rubbish about “Global Warming”, goodness help us after this election with all of them spouting climate change crap!!!!!

  7. December 4, 2019 8:51 pm


    The Gaia Hypothesis postulates that the world is a self-regulating system that maintains the climate conditions necessary for life via the Carbon Cycle. The increased greening with rising CO2, if correct, could be strong evidence in support of Lovelock’s 1979 speculations about the ‘role of biota in maintaining a climatic homeostasis’.

  8. December 4, 2019 10:01 pm

    Read Dr Patrick Moore Environmentalist.He claims C02 levels are almost to low and has no effect on temperature. Then read Tony Heller at least 5 or up to ten of his short videos on you Tube. He goes back and gets historical data and proves the alarmists are recreating data to show warming.

  9. December 5, 2019 12:19 am

    These predictions rely totally on us using the same technology for the next hundred years surely, what are the chances of that? If we could deflect green subsidies to our university researchers perhaps the answer to what ails us will come in pretty short order. We did mobile phones from nothing and got to the moon on a statement of will power. There is are fortunes to be made out of the next generation of power provision, if we could finance the ‘Manhattan Project’ with no outcome but destruction then the UN for one could circle the wagons around nuclear fusion.

  10. December 5, 2019 10:11 am

    The CO2 scare is just a peg to hang political agendas on. Real atmospheric science is of no interest to its promoters.

    • Gamecock permalink
      December 5, 2019 11:36 am

      True. They are interested in ‘weaker global economic growth.’

      Weather is just a hammer to get people to accept it. One of our earliest learnings as children is that Man can’t control the weather. A lesson world leaders seem not to have gotten.

  11. dennisambler permalink
    December 5, 2019 12:12 pm

    It’s all about the money, money, money….
    “Countries can unlock new economic opportunities and jobs through climate action.
    Investing in resilient infrastructure in developing countries could deliver $4.2 trillion over the lifetime of new infrastructure. An investment of $1, on average, yields $4 in benefits.

    The financing required for an orderly transition to a low carbon, resilient global economy must be counted in the trillions, not billions.

    Significant investment in infrastructure is needed over the next 15 years – around US$90 trillion by 2030 – but it does not need to cost much more to ensure that this new infrastructure is compatible with climate goals.”
    The global climate finance architecture is complex and always evolving. Funds flow through multilateral channels – both within and outside of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement financial mechanisms – and increasingly through bilateral, as well as through regional and national climate change channels and funds.

    Monitoring the flows of climate finance is difficult, as there is no agreed definition of what constitutes climate finance or consistent accounting rules. The wide range of climate finance mechanisms continues to challenge coordination. But efforts to increase inclusiveness and complementarity as well as to simplify access continue.

  12. AR Clapham permalink
    December 5, 2019 12:48 pm

    It is the increase in CO2 that has produced huge tonnage increases in cereals,root crops and all agricultural produce,without it starvation will become a serious problem!

  13. December 5, 2019 3:03 pm

    I wonder what the trend is in that most important of all “greenhouse gases” – water vapour? We should be cutting down on our emissions of water.

  14. December 6, 2019 1:01 am

    All this fancy sciency talk about atmos CO2 concentration and emissions without the evidence that the two are related!

  15. December 12, 2019 2:09 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

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