Skip to content

A Wet Autumn For South Yorkshire

December 6, 2019

By Paul Homewood

 

The Met Office have now published their data for last month, and it confirms what I was saying weeks ago about the South Yorkshire floods:

 

2019_15_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps

 

While most of the country has only had a moderately wet autumn (and Scotland has been drier than usual), a relatively small area encompassing South Yorkshire and the East Midlands has seen close to double the normal rainfall.

This rainfall excess has been a constant feature in that area throughout the autumn, exacerbating the heavy rain which fell on 7th November:

 

2019_9_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010

2019_10_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010

2019_11_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010

 

 

By contrast, across the UK as a whole autumn rainfall has only been slightly above average, ranking only 23rd wettest.

There is no indication that autumns are getting any wetter over the longer term:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

 

 

You will recall claims made by so-called experts that the floods were made much worse because of global warming. In fact, the autumn as a whole has been a cold one in the UK:

 

 

 

It is abundantly clear that the South Yorkshire and East Midland floods had nothing whatsoever to do with climate change, they were simply the result of unusual weather patterns, which brought several weeks of wet weather to that particular area.

45 Comments
  1. Pancho Plail permalink
    December 6, 2019 3:46 pm

    Not a lot of global anything in that.

  2. December 6, 2019 3:47 pm

    At a guess, the dry Scotland and wet Yorkshire are not unconnected.

    • Saighdear permalink
      December 6, 2019 11:04 pm

      Dry Scotland, eh? Depends where Scotland begins and finishes! Inner MorayFirth is, repeat IS, much wetter than shown: I have never seen so much rain and heavy precipitation ( Rate of accumulation) for a long time, locally around Sea-level. We must have had 20- 24″ since beginning October. Fields are underwater where they never used to be. Amazingly there was a sudden drying / drainage of water around 10 days ago – related to phases of Moon? overnight the water was gone. Now we’re swimming again….

  3. The Man at the Back permalink
    December 6, 2019 3:55 pm

    Yes Paul – much as you said as usual.

    While anyone with a reasonable knowledge of maths understands what a “normal” is (even then it can have more than one meaning, as in perpendicular to) – often defined as “average” etc. It is one of those words whose meaning can be taken another way.

    What am I rambling about? – Well if the rainfall wasn’t normal – it MUST be abnormal.

    I always describe temperature and rainfall data as related to “averages” as you more often than not do Paul. I avoid “normal” if possible

    As George Carlin reminded us – when you consider how stupid the average person is, you do well to remember that half of them are more stupid than that.

  4. December 6, 2019 4:03 pm

    It just goes to show how varied the weather is across the UK. That’s what you get from being between a continent and an ocean and being at mid-latitude.

    • Up2snuff permalink
      December 6, 2019 4:30 pm

      And how it can change within year and also from year to year.

      Am a bit surprised at that MetOffice rainfall map. I know the Swale and Canterbury area. There was a drought there from mid-February to mid-September 2019. Am not sure the residents would describe the recent rainfall there since then as ‘average or just above/below average’ but it is shown as that according to the MetOffice map.

      The other thing that that rainfall map does is create just a teeny doubt in my mind about the wisdom of the MetOffice relying on Central England Temperature (CET temp) to declare that a particular day, month or year has been “the hottest ever”.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        December 7, 2019 9:07 am

        They may well not be trying to be wise with their claims since the Met O are signed up to deliver the global warming myth.

        For my area of the corner of East Surrey it has been very wet the last two months. And how do we know the reference time period of 1981-2010 is normal anyway?

    • December 7, 2019 11:51 am

      Phill you know that BBC item you did about that noisy anaerobic digester in Tiverton
      I was talking to Melvin the other day about low frequency noise from a straw bale power plant. But when I checked there is almost zero about that Tiverton noise problem on the internet.
      It was noise that stopped locals sleeping wasn’t it ?

  5. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 6, 2019 4:42 pm

    With Autumns 2016/17/18 essentially identical, you could say Autumn has been cooling for 5 years, the longest cooling trend in the entire record? The story you can tell just depends on how hard you want to spin it doesn’t it!

    I was looking at the yearly CET the other day. Assuming nothing astonishing happens for the rest of December, the value for 2019 will be unremarkable (+0.75 to +0.85C). How far back could you go and say the CET has had a cooling trend, 2 decades?

  6. bobn permalink
    December 6, 2019 7:47 pm

    The cool wet English autumn has been because the Jetstream (ITCZ) has sunk to lower latitudes leaving Scotland on the north side and thus dryer. Usually the Jetstream (where the rain is generated would be over Scotland. To sink lower there has to be LESS heat at the azores and equator. Thus this is classic GLOBAL COOLING.

  7. Dan permalink
    December 6, 2019 8:02 pm

    Still there is an apparent increase. One of those years where the jet steam is just a tad lower? Ireland would be interesting to see.

    What sort of extrapolation are we looking at from measuring sites?

  8. December 6, 2019 8:26 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.

  9. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 6, 2019 9:14 pm

    O/T misleadingly titled but interesting link not hiding facts about glaciers and forests:-

    “When the Vikings came to this remote island in the North Atlantic Ocean the land was extensively forested. Around 1100 years ago the climate was warmer than it is now, and the glaciers were smaller than they are at the present time, even though there has been accelerating melting of the Icelandic glaciers for many decades.”

    https://adventures.is/blog/why-are-there-no-trees-in-iceland/

    https://www.icelandreview.com/news/3000-year-old-trees-excavated-under-glacier/

    How well the warm periods correspond to Minoan and Medieval warm periods indicated in Greenland’s GISP2 data?

    The GISP2 data is of course rubbished as one location, not reliable, not widespread etc. by the alarmists. Well it seems the warmth indicated was at least felt in Iceland.

    The ‘problem’ for alarmists is that GISP2 indicates how rapidly the warm spells came and went, that the modern warming is not unprecedented, and that each warm period has been cooler than the last – Minoan/Roman/Medieval/Modern, and despite these, we are in a 10k year cooling trend.

  10. Washington 76 permalink
    December 6, 2019 9:54 pm

    Aug 28, 2019 CLIMATE FORCING | Our Future is Cold

    Climate Change, Solar Forcing, Ice Age | From volcanic cooling born beneath our feet to the most seemingly distant reaches of both space time, we lay out Climate Forcing: the problems, path forward, and character of the finish line.

  11. john cooknell permalink
    December 7, 2019 12:08 am

    I am right in the centre of the Map, right under the dark blue bits on the Warwickshire Avon.

    The Avon river level has been “notably high” according to the CEH, and I can confirm that, the fields the back of my bungalow are flooded, a magnificent sight. Some houses at known risk got flooded it is quite miserable for them

    I can further confirm the Environment Agency flood maps are exact to the mm, spot on!

    But it is strange the reaction you get from people, some see it as perfectly normal (which it is) but others see it as a sign of the “end of days” and reckon if we all were nicer to one another everything would be OK.

  12. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    December 7, 2019 12:46 am

    Official agencies express “Climate Normals” of atmospheric variables based on a definition using a 30 year interval. The time frame begins with a year ending in ‘1’ and ends with a year ending in ‘0’.
    Current “normals” are for 1981 through 2010. After 2020 the set of “Climate Normals” will shift to 1991 through 2020.
    This definition was agreed on in the mid-1930s so that newspapers and others would be reporting a daily reading that could be compared to what a young-adult would/could relate to. This system was not set up to study global warming or anything else.
    I have noticed many comments over the years that “no climate is normal” or some such derogatory statement without the person knowing about the meaning and purpose of the definition. Also, this was selected before modern digital computers. Readings were sent around from place to place on paper. That’s a charmingly odd concept!

    This way of doing things provides an expectation of how things will be. The concept of “climate” is helpful.
    Weather is what you get.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 7, 2019 9:58 am

      There is the WMO normal definition, but then the official data manglers often switch and use which ever 30 year period best exaggerates the propaganda they want to push.

      • Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
        December 7, 2019 6:09 pm

        Non- official data manglers make a graph and then pick just the section that supports the argument. These folks are activists.

    • Up2snuff permalink
      December 7, 2019 7:25 pm

      Nancy & John, thanks for that information. That is what really adds to sites like this; a chance to learn stuff from each other.

  13. RICHARD JARMAN permalink
    December 7, 2019 9:41 am

    Yorkshire may be God’s own country but I don’t think it can claim to have a climate change emergency all of its own

  14. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 7, 2019 10:04 am

    We’re a bit off the edge of the world in the map here, but UK is shown as been pretty ‘normal’ temperature wise this year.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/06/2019-the-third-least-chilly-in-the-satellite-temperature-record/

  15. December 7, 2019 11:22 am

    Slightly off topic, I have sent in a complaint re: the bbc’s latest travesty of journalism: “Climate change: Oceans running out of oxygen as temperatures rise”

    Read it if you can bear to…

    • dave permalink
      December 7, 2019 6:48 pm

      Apparently, the ocean is venting oxygen at a worryingly high rate but – curiously enough – NOT venting carbon dioxide, despite the same physical laws applying.

      Ain’t climate “”””””science””””” wunnerful?

    • Up2snuff permalink
      December 7, 2019 7:29 pm

      Jit, since you are here any chance of an answer to my question from earlier in the week:

      “Jit, from the above you appear to be claiming that no other parts of our atmosphere have any effect whatsoever on keeping our planet warm and inhabitable. And only CO2 does it.

      Is that right? Do I have that right?”

      [ Sort of my Cathy Newman moment. 😉 ]

      • December 7, 2019 9:08 pm

        If a gas absorbs IR photons it is a “greenhouse” gas. That means H2O, CO2, CH4, CO. The others, N2, O2, Ar, Ne are not.

        You can play with MODTRAN to see the effect of increasing CO2 concentrations on outgoing energy (absent surface temperature rise). You can then tweak the surface temp to balance the outgoing. For a clear sky in the tropics, it gives a 0.75 K rise to balance out doubling CO2. Not very frightening. (Of course this is absent the infamous “feedbacks”.)

        If you mean does air pressure affect things, i.e. would an Earth atmosphere of pure nitrogen reach 288 K, no. The back of my envelope says 257 K for an Earth with no atmosphere and as far as I can see that also applies to an Earth with a pure N2 atmosphere too.

      • December 7, 2019 9:11 pm

        Of course I should have added that H2O is strongly limited to the lower atmosphere because it condenses and falls back to earth, etc.

      • Up2snuff permalink
        December 14, 2019 9:36 pm

        Jit, thanks for that. That does turn the science I was taught – a long time ago – on its head. Back then, the atmosphere as a whole, with the help of gravity, was understood to make this planet habitable ie. warm enough, for animal, insect, marine and human life.

        There is then the contradiction, of course, with H²O in that it can only rise if it, too, is warmed by IR radiation before it falls back to earth

  16. John189 permalink
    December 7, 2019 6:42 pm

    Thanks to Jit I have managed to read the BBC’s article on oceans running out of oxygen. Actually, I find myself in agreement with one of the authors of the study. She said: “If we run out of oxygen, that will mean habitat loss”. But to be serious, I am aghast that our public broadcaster can promote such drivel.

    Back on topic, a belated comment from me…. it is weather, not climate, that causes phenomena to be concentrated or polonged in a small area, and it is nothing new. Keighley in Yorkshire had fifteen hours of near continuous thunderstorms in early September 1961, and my own weather diary recorded thunderstroms (same area) every day from 7 to 14 August inclusive in 1967. How, I wonder, can we get this over to journalists who want a quick shock-horror worst evah story? And shame on any scientist who jumps on teh bandwaggon.

    • dave permalink
      December 7, 2019 7:20 pm

      “…shock-horror…”

      Which get hoi polloi all hot and bothered.

      The real difficulty is that despite – or because of – many years spent studying Science at school, and lapping up babyish TV programmes, still not one in a hundred people has the beginnings of the foggiest of a vague idea of how the Universe actually works.

      • john cooknell permalink
        December 7, 2019 8:00 pm

        For once, I have raised a complaint with the BBC about this article by their award winning journalist Matt McGrath.

        In my view he has crossed the editorial line in publishing this without reference to any independent science peer review or might I suggest any scrutiny by anybody who has common sense.

        I can put up with the BBC editorial position of Climate Change science not being challenged, but this is not Climate Change science and not even worthy of a description of garbage.

        However worse garbage has been accepted by the PNAS so lets see what happens.

      • john cooknell permalink
        December 7, 2019 8:02 pm

        By the way, how did Matt get to Madrid, on a donkey maybe?

  17. Steve permalink
    December 7, 2019 11:09 pm

    It looks like the effect of hills and low level saturated air has been instrumental. Where I live in Brighton it was unuually wet but in Essex, where I escape to, it was dry. Buxton and Prickville in the Peak District and the Socalist Republic of West Yorkshire were in the middle of pissitdown. It would be good to hear the dollies reading the computer forecasts on the telly using truthful language as well as hearing nice dresses.

  18. December 8, 2019 7:34 am

    Eco Mosque item coming up on R4 Cambridge
    Then 8am Radio Lincolnshire will trail tonights Countryfile , as they did at 7am.

    • December 8, 2019 8:09 am

      It’s a bit strange that the BBC did an item today cos the Mosque has been open since April.
      The actual news it the Erdogan opening, which is now cos he’s in the country for the NATO summit. but they didn’t mention that.

      Cambridge has a high Kurdish population
      so they aren’t using an Erdogan mosque
      thread

      “President Erdogan has been in the UK for the annual NATO leaders conference in London and was invited to the ceremony last month by Mosque patron Yusuf Islam otherwise known as Cat Stevens”

      The BBC didn’t mention Erdogan funded it
      \\ This is the Cambridge central mosque Eco friendly mosque in the UK which is designed using sophisticated technology with poles resembling forests from natural materials.
      Very beautiful & amazing Mosque construction funded by Turkish Islamic organizations & inaugurated by Turkish President Erdogan //
      Video tweet in English from Turkish TV

  19. December 8, 2019 7:36 am

    Oh dear, tonight’s Countryfile will have a special item the Changing Weather Patterns due to Climate Change and their impact on farming.
    Adam Henson visits the Barlings Eau and talks about the farmer maybe converting his entire farm into a wetland reserve.
    It’s still got 1m of water on and the bank breach wasn’t yet fixed on Thursday..they were still putting new pilings in.

    Now we know weather patterns may well change like over 1,000 years rivers change course.
    But that alarmists get carried away.
    So when they assume floods will happen in this years places every year now, and actually that won’t happen.
    So far Fish Lake wasn’t mentioned just Lincolnshire.

    Radio Lincolnshire trails it twice at 7am and then after 8am interview with Adam Henson.

    • December 8, 2019 8:18 am

      The farmer wants a Lincolnshire Rivers body to take over from the EA
      “like the did in Somserset levels, where tge local body took over and restarted dredging”

      EA just tweeted this

    • December 8, 2019 8:31 am

      Adam Henson didn’t bang on about Climate
      He just said that if areas are prone to flooding
      then the EA are better off setting it aside, instead of having to clean it up each time.

      Farmland 3 miles from me is still 1ft deep
      cos the River Ancholme sluice gate hasn’t been able to drain all the excess rain yet, so flooded land upstream hasn’t drained yet.

  20. December 8, 2019 8:35 am

    YahooNews pushing this long green election politics item that originates from TheConversation
    (the university based libmob Guardianlike propaganda site )
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/energy-expert-heres-where-boris-152247945.html

  21. Tim Spence permalink
    December 8, 2019 10:11 am

    It’s my understanding that the prevailing winds in most of England are westerlies, which means that much of the rain is deposited on the western side and the slopes of the Pennines. When this doesn’t happen it would suggest to me a change of wind patterns and those easterly winds are usually colder. Hence Yorkshire has a colder and wetter period, now and again.

    So to me this is what is known as ‘weather’ although a part of me wonders if God is actually a Man United fan who is angry that Sheffield United are doing well in the top flight.;)

  22. Coeur de Lion permalink
    December 8, 2019 8:16 pm

    Off thread but I’m in email contact with BBC’s Harrabin who says it’s settled, I riposted with sensitivity 1.5C for CO2 doubling, he referred me to Tim Lenton’s recent paper – is this about tipping points? Anyone help me?

    • Stuart Brown permalink
      December 8, 2019 9:27 pm

      This guy? He does seem to be concerned over tipping points – this links to his publications…

      http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/staff/?web_id=Timothy_Lenton#publications

      • dave permalink
        December 9, 2019 9:29 am

        In the final analysis, matters can only progress at the rate the Ocean warms.
        The Ocean has 1,600 times the heat capacity of the Atmosphere. There is no possibility of “runaway” warming of such a vast heat sink, and so there can be no issue of a general “tipping point.”

        The result of the 150 years* of vigorous global warming of recent history** is merely that the top fifth of the Ocean has increased in temperature by about 0.75 C. The only real “feedback” – and it is a doosy – is the negative one that this increase has resulted in an intensification of infrared radiation from the sea surface, leaking heat energy into outer space. This cooling effect happens to the fourth power of the absolute temperature increase.

        * Conveniently, since the voyages of the Challenger.

        **The most magnetically active Sun of the entire Holocene has ruled in this period.

      • dave permalink
        December 9, 2019 9:39 am

        We can tip over into cooling episodes but not into warming ones. You can fall off a cliff, but not up one.

        Of course, a geologist can legitimately have a different viewpoint of what constitutes a “sudden” change. But all practical geologists that I have known laughed at “climate science.”

  23. Athelstan. permalink
    December 9, 2019 2:11 pm

    Fascinating.

    If we could just drop the idiot alarmist politics.

    These rainfall figures are so very interesting a stream of North, North easterly, easterly winds making the east drip.

    See, if you look at the MO Nov graphic. From the Firth of Forth down to the Wash, we see an almost reverse of the rainfall figures for ‘most years’, ie the prevailing winds usually mean the WEST receives the greater proportion of rainfall and the EAST is in the ‘rainshadow’ of the highland; ‘mainly Southern Uplands and Cheviots/Pennines, paradoxically the rainfall figures are somewhat nigh totally reversed – very unusual..

    I can almost hear the headlines “global warming affects the coriolis and SW prevailing westerlies!”

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: