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Provisional US Tornado Stats–Another Year Without An EF-5

December 27, 2019

By Paul Homewood



Climate scientists love to blame every bad weather event on global warming. Yet we never hear them cite climate change for the relative absence of bad weather!

One such example are tornadoes in the US, where we now have several decades of carefully collated data.

With the year near an end, we know that the number of tornadoes has been above average this year, though well below 2008 and 2011. Primarily this is due to several outbreaks in February and April:


Data since September is still provisional, so it is too soon to do a full analysis. But what we can safely say is that there have been no EF-5 tornadoes this year, the strongest category. This now extends the period without an EF-5 to six years, the last one being the Moore, Oklahoma tornado in May 2013.

There has only been one longer period without an EF-5, the seven years from 2000 to 2006:




It is also abundantly clear that powerful tornadoes were much more common in the 1970s.

The small numbers of EF-5 make estimation of trends difficult, but such trends are clearer with EF-4s. Provisionally there have been three this year, a figure now unlikely to change:




This is a continuation of low numbers in recent years, in stark contrast to the 1970s:



None of this is rocket science. Meteorologists fully understand that tornadoes, and the thunderstorms from which they form, depend on the clash of warm and cold air. Typically the warm moist air comes from the Gulf, whilst the cold air arrives from Canada. (More info here.)

According to global warming theory, the poles should warm faster than the tropics, which means that the type of thunderstorms we are talking about here would tend to be less powerful. In turn tornadoes should be less frequent and weaker.

I look forward to the BBC/Guardian reporting this good news.

  1. charles wardrop permalink
    December 27, 2019 1:46 pm

    Those polticos formulating policy and analyses so as to meet their ideologies and preconceptions, i.e., the majority, are thinking politically, not scientifically
    Real problems, arise when they choose scientific advisers with the same flaw, e.g., Prof. Sir David King and others, perhaps subconsciously, seking to gain grants for their Depts and/or proteges..

    • Broadlands permalink
      December 27, 2019 2:16 pm

      Indeed, Charles. It has never been about the extreme weather or even CO2. It has always been about controlling people…an extreme ideological goal. Some even admit it.

  2. SirClive permalink
    December 27, 2019 2:34 pm

    So ironically this is one of the few areas where data corresponds with a warming world? But they can’t be magnanimous to accept the beneficial aspects of their
    apocalyptic world.

    • Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
      December 27, 2019 4:41 pm

      I think weather researchers recognize this situation. However, it doesn’t fit the notion that all is bad with the world and needs to be corrected, so the Klimate Kids have a cognitive dissonance issue. I wonder if, in their minds more tornadoes are better.
      Anyway, there is always next year, and we no longer live where tornadoes roam.

  3. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 27, 2019 2:44 pm

    A week or so ago most of the BBC UK weather forecast was given over to reporting US Tornadoes. You can guess how it went. News presenter starts the handover with – “I hear there were some tornado fatalities in the US yesterday, what on earth is happening, it isn’t even the tornado season.”

    On the plus side, the reports about the ‘Worzel Gummidge’ reboot being a climate change brainwashing vehicle were off the mark I think (so far). It was more a reminder that the weather has always been extremely variable, with a bit of mystical hogwash thrown in.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 27, 2019 7:59 pm

      I take it back, BBC usual trick, ram-it-down-your throat lecture in the last few minutes.


  4. December 27, 2019 2:47 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate-

  5. December 27, 2019 4:29 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  6. Scott permalink
    December 27, 2019 6:49 pm

    How come 2016,17, and18 are not on the tornado chart?

    • December 27, 2019 7:08 pm

      They are Scott, they are all zero years

      I probably should have run the x-axis up to 2020 to make it clear

  7. Joe Public permalink
    December 27, 2019 8:39 pm

    On Twitter, Chris Martz Weather @ChrisMartzWX asks a logical question:

    “Can someone tell me which tornado was caused by global warming?”

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