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Dry, hot summers could become ‘common’ in Scotland-Or maybe not!

February 4, 2020
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Joe Public

The latest junk science courtesy of the Met Office and BBC:

 

 

 image

Scotland should prepare for more dry, hot summers with temperatures of about 30C, according to researchers.

They say that unless CO2 emissions are cut "very drastically" across the world, record-breaking summers such as 2018 could become "quite common".

That summer was unusually hot, with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton in Renfrewshire.

Academics say the country should plan how to deal with more frequent high temperatures caused by climate change.

The report by researchers from Edinburgh and Oxford universities and Met Office staff analyses UK climate projections.

They suggest there is a substantial increase in the likelihood of temperatures reaching 2018’s levels between now and 2050.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51347881

 

Back in the real world, the summer of 2018 was only the 7th hottest since 1885, and it was not even as hot as in 1933 and 1955:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series 

 

Such summers are still very rare events, and show no sign of becoming more common.

 

The “near record” temperature of 31.9C set at Bishopton in 2018 is actually nothing of the sort, or indicative of a warming trend.

Temperatures above 32C have been recorded in every month between June and September, in 1893, 1908, 1901, 2003 and 1906:

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-extremes

 

And at Eskdalemuir, peak summer temperatures have been dropping since 1976:

 

time series

http://climexp.knmi.nl/gdcntmax.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=UK000003162&STATION=ESKDALEMUIR&extraargs= 

 

Finally we should look at summer rainfall in Scotland. As we can see, even the summer of 2018 was not unusually dry, unlike several earlier in the record.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

 

And they have the nerve to call themselves scientists!

47 Comments
  1. Athelstan. permalink
    February 4, 2020 5:34 pm

    “dry hot summers” and Scotland in the same sentence……………..

    Strewth!

    what are these dingbats suppin’?

    yikes, it must be far more potent than even Tennant’s super and multiple shots of Torabhaig.

    • February 4, 2020 10:41 pm

      ‘That summer was unusually hot, with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton in Renfrewshire.’

      Er…that’s a hot day – for Scotland – not a hot summer.

  2. Luc Ozade permalink
    February 4, 2020 5:38 pm

    I call them activists, they most certainly are not scientists.

  3. Broadlands permalink
    February 4, 2020 5:43 pm

    “They say…. that unless CO2 emissions are cut “very drastically” across the world, record-breaking summers such as 2018 could become “quite common”.

    Cutting CO2 emissions just keeps carbon in the ground. It does nothing to lower what is already in the atmosphere and supposedly creating these temperatures. Values also commonly seen in the past. When will “they” understand that?

    • chaswarnertoo permalink
      February 5, 2020 1:44 pm

      As CO2 has minimal effect on temperature and that effect is mostly positive I fail to see any need for action of any sort. Except to educate the warmists.

  4. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    February 4, 2020 5:48 pm

    Current weather ==> complain
    Better weather ==> complain

  5. bobn permalink
    February 4, 2020 5:50 pm

    Ah but these are analysed extrapolations from ‘projections’ based on computer models derived from theories and assumptions prognosticated by hypotheses of rumoured assertions!
    What could be more scientific than that!
    Oh, data, no, universities no longer use data, they’ve got assumptions instead.

    • dave permalink
      February 4, 2020 6:29 pm

      “…assumptions…”

      The kids who invest your pension pot are chronically infected with them – it is an aspect of ‘Climate Derangement Syndrome*:’

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/tesla-stock-surging-yet-again-tsla-jumps-past-800-in-early-trading.html

      *Sometimes co-morbid with ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome.’

    • Athelstan. permalink
      February 4, 2020 6:47 pm

      Excellent! the sarcasm drips like concentrated acid etched, well said indeed……erm

      “Ah but these are analysed extrapolations from ‘projections’ based on computer models derived from theories and assumptions prognosticated by hypotheses of rumoured assertions!”

      can I pinch that?

      • bobn permalink
        February 5, 2020 12:12 am

        Certainly. I think i was having a Monty Python dead parrot moment. Just talk jibberish and they wont notice its dead.

    • chaswarnertoo permalink
      February 5, 2020 1:45 pm

      GIGO.

  6. February 4, 2020 6:15 pm

    Jaime Jessop has a good post on this. Rather than look at any actual data, like you’ve done here, the so-called “scientists” have used the new generation CMIP6 models, which are known to have a warming rate about twice that of the observations, and combined that with the discredited RCP8.5 emissions scenario.

    https://cliscep.com/2020/02/03/met-office-study-rejoice-scorching-scottish-summers-to-become-the-norm-by-2050/

    • Athelstan. permalink
      February 4, 2020 6:50 pm

      “the new generation CMIP6 models”

      even more gigo than the previous dice rolling ah – climate models.

  7. David permalink
    February 4, 2020 6:20 pm

    Just how are these “academics” proposing that people in Scotland should prepare for hotter summers? Maybe all Scots should install CO2 producing A.C. units just in case…

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      February 4, 2020 6:27 pm

      Maybe these ‘academics’ should ponder why it is that many (pensioners) from the north plan to live in Spain for much of the year – and expect to survive the ‘catastrophic’ rise in temps of 10 Dec plus.

      • Adrian, East Anglia permalink
        February 5, 2020 10:21 am

        Harry, you make an extremely interesting and valid point!
        I know of several retirees, my late brother included, who have done exactly that.
        (For the avoidance of doubt, my brother died from smoking related disease, NOT the change of climate!)

  8. dearieme permalink
    February 4, 2020 6:39 pm

    No more headlines of “Edinburgh sizzles in the seventies” then? Good-oh. But what Scotland really needs is shorter winters. What can the gods of global warming arrange?

  9. Ben Vorlich permalink
    February 4, 2020 6:50 pm

    Hotter drier summers for Scotland? What’s not to like? Aberdour Silver Sands on a warm August day.

  10. Gray permalink
    February 4, 2020 7:09 pm

    Can somebody, anybody, explain comprehensively how an increase of a trace gas that is less than 500 parts per million, can cause such an apparently catastrophic change in climate? (Outside a vacuum chamber. )

    We have two massive chaotic systems, the atmosphere and the oceans, both are almost impossible to understand.

    Also there is a carbon cycle that absorbs CO2, and in addition there Is natural output of carbon dioxide which makes made made CO2 look insignificant.

    Are we about to be taxed to the hilt to counter something that has not been categorically proved?

  11. February 4, 2020 7:44 pm

    It’s a pity Scotland has ruined its landscape with thousands of wind turbines, because they will put off all the tourists who would otherwise flock north to enjoy the warm weather.

    • Pancho Plail permalink
      February 4, 2020 11:57 pm

      The obvious solution to keep Scotland cool in these temperatures is to power up the turbines and run them as fans.

      • chaswarnertoo permalink
        February 5, 2020 1:47 pm

        Don’t give the stupids ideas!

  12. Tim Spence permalink
    February 4, 2020 7:52 pm

    Urgent … how will this affect the whisky ?

  13. Derek Reynolds permalink
    February 4, 2020 9:13 pm

    We moved to the Scottish Highlands (close to Kincraig) in Nov. 2003, and the locals reported summer temperatures reaching 34°C. We lived there for 16 months, and glorious weather was seen, but mostly absent. Lowest temps were -14°C (winter of course).Summer Midgies the size of sparrows. (Ok, just big).

  14. Ian Miller permalink
    February 4, 2020 9:36 pm

    Without any public debate allowed, while dissenters summarily are silenced by the media; electric cars imposed on us without the element of ‘freedom of choice’, under Boris’s Government we are so regrettably on a daily basis, – fast becoming a Climate Change, David Attenburgh inspired dictatorship.

    The situation is fast becoming DESPERATE.

    • dearieme permalink
      February 5, 2020 3:09 pm

      “fast becoming a … dictatorship.” It ill becomes you to be as hysterical as a Greenie.

  15. Douglas Brodie permalink
    February 4, 2020 10:20 pm

    The shameless scientists of the Met Office know full well that the 2018 UK heat wave was caused by a blocking high due to unusually cool temperatures in the west Atlantic, perhaps a harbinger of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 30-year cooling phase.

  16. C Lynch permalink
    February 4, 2020 10:33 pm

    “Near record high”. That would not be a record then even with all the fiddling and “adjusting” of temperature data.

  17. roger permalink
    February 4, 2020 10:57 pm

    Most record highs in Mrs. Sturgeon’s Scotland happen in the central belt where a large proportion of her knuckle draggers allegedly use class A drugs.
    Another hot spot can be found on the Moray Firth where the phone effect will get you a personal delivery.

  18. February 5, 2020 12:03 am

    Given the solar minimum caused jet stream loops I suspect Scotland is going to be a miserable place for about the next thirty years.

    I’m glad my Scots grandfather migrated to Australia!

    No tartan though, we lowlanders have to put pants on.

  19. February 5, 2020 2:41 am

    Hot dry summers in Scotland? and then what? Australian bushfires? OMG OMG

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/02/tbgyozfire/

  20. Stephen Burchell permalink
    February 5, 2020 6:34 am

    Yes please

  21. mjr permalink
    February 5, 2020 7:29 am

    “They suggest there is a substantial increase in the likelihood of temperatures reaching 2018’s levels between now and 2050.”
    Suggest……..substantial …… likelihood….. .. all weasel words
    so basically they there is no factual substantiation for this claim. just the usual scaremongering

  22. mjr permalink
    February 5, 2020 7:36 am

    Also meant to mention. Just listened to BBC R4 “infinite monkey cage” about fire. It commented how fire was important to early man in reducing time spent eating as fire could “pre-digest food” .. But not a single mention of cooking meat. Is this a sign that BBC will no longer knowingly accept meat eating? Also it did not mention fire and it being pre-requisite for the industrial revolution.
    Interestingly what it did mention in a segment about animals using fire… they said that there was an Australian Falcon that would pick up a burning twig from the edge of a bush fire and use it to start a new fire on virgin bush … to drive out the mammals to eat. Funny how that was never mentioned by the BBC as a contributor to the recent Australian fires ,, which were of course all due to climate emergency

  23. Phoenix44 permalink
    February 5, 2020 8:45 am

    Typical BBC sleight of hand. A model done by scientists is not “science”, any more than their texts to their husbands and wives are science.

    It’s just relentless, unlike real science, which is done slowly, methodically and usually over years. And of course this “science” was only ever going to come to the pre-ordained conclusion.

  24. George Lawson permalink
    February 5, 2020 10:27 am

    February 5, 2020 9:35 am

    “with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton”
    What was the record high and in what year?

    • February 5, 2020 2:12 pm

      32.9C in 2003

      • George Lawson permalink
        February 5, 2020 2:24 pm

        So it was hotter seventeen years ago, which means that it has been cooler over the past seventeen years, including last year. So perhaps the Met Office researchers can tell us what they are talking about!

  25. saparonia permalink
    February 5, 2020 11:14 am

    A build up of CO2 from volcanoes and sea emmissions preceeds Ice Ages. I learnt this in the 1990’s in an environmantal archaeology lecture while studying for my degree in archaeology and prehistory and I doubt anything’s changed since then.

    • saparonia permalink
      February 5, 2020 11:16 am

      oops, that should read as environmental sorry

  26. jack broughton permalink
    February 5, 2020 1:33 pm

    I usually go to Edinburgh for a week in august (festival time). It is a few years since there was a warm week, they could really benefit from a couple of degrees of warming…… maybe after Nicola separates them from the UK’s weather!!!

  27. john cooknell permalink
    February 5, 2020 9:06 pm

    COP 26 in Glasgow in November, well that should sort out the climate change denial brigade.

    My advice, take your coat!

  28. Michael Perry permalink
    February 5, 2020 11:24 pm

    CO2 increases happen AFTER temperature rises! So it is not the major factor t play. Get the ‘unadjusted’ data and plot both COa=2 and temperature on the same graph gong over at least forty years. You’ll soon see what I mean.

  29. February 8, 2020 12:04 am

    I’m not bothered about summers. It’s warmer winters I want!
    Looking at the Met Office graph raises more questions than answers.
    How were these data points arrived at?
    What adjustments were made? Urban heat effect?
    How were outliers dealt with?
    Why have they stuck a line on showing the mean between 1981 and 2010?
    How reliable is the coverage from 1890?
    There is no doubt that ‘average’ temperatures have increased from the previous downward trend. I prefer to call this recovery! Long may it continue.

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