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Climate Crisis Update–England As Warm As 1736 Last Month!

February 13, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

 HadCET_act_graphEX

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

 

It’s been a mild start to the year here in England. In fact, according to the CET, it’s been the 14th warmest January since the start of records in 1659.

No doubt fingers will be pointed at global warming, but as the above chart shows, we have simply had mild weather of the commonly seen before. The difference is that it lasted virtually all month.

 

Moreover we have had warmer Januaries way back in the past. The warmest was in 1916, followed by 1921, 1796 and 1834.

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

 

Meanwhile UK rainfall has been pretty much average:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

 

I suppose you could say, the more things change, the more they stay the same!

15 Comments
  1. Pancho Plail permalink
    February 13, 2020 12:42 pm

    Since coming out of the little ice age temperatures have risen slowly but steadily. At no time has there been any sustained uptick in temperatures, and there appears to be absolutely no correlation with CO2 concentrations. In this scenario I would expect high temperature records to be broken occasionally. What I find surprising is how infrequently this happens.

    • Broadlands permalink
      February 13, 2020 1:29 pm

      Yes, but there is an anti-correlation with CO2. It started in 1938 and ended in 1975. Guy Callendar got it wrong in his paper on the greenhouse effect published in 1938.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      February 13, 2020 1:57 pm

      Yes, I agree. I was a bit more than surprised to see that a Thickipedia page for highs and lows in the US states only had TWO highs post 2000. There were – at that time – FOUR lows set post 2000 and of course we all know of the global warming bias at that site.

      • Broadlands permalink
        February 13, 2020 2:46 pm

        It is interesting that in the US, 1917 was the coldest year on record (and still is) but it was followed just four years later by the warmest year on record. That was true until NOAA lowered the US Weather Bureau’s value for 1921 by 1.8°F to the seventh warmest to make 2012 the warmest. Good luck doing historical studies.

    • Not-in-my-name permalink
      February 14, 2020 4:16 pm

      I recommend you look up Darko Butina on the internet. Here is a link to one of his papers http://l4patterns.com/uploads/usa-tmax.pdf. He has applied statistical analysis to temperature records and as expected most temperatures are within two standard deviations with some extremes.

  2. John189 permalink
    February 13, 2020 1:20 pm

    January 2020 as warm as January 1736…I look forwrad to January 2024 being as cold as January 1740!

  3. A C Osborn permalink
    February 13, 2020 2:07 pm

    Paul, you are being extremely unfair to the CAGW brigade we all know that they think climate history started in 1979.

  4. Phoenix44 permalink
    February 13, 2020 2:08 pm

    Really does appear to be a Little Ice Age in those January data though, There were a few really very cold Januaries back then, if they were averaging minus 4!

  5. MrGrimNasty permalink
    February 13, 2020 2:19 pm

  6. dennisambler permalink
    February 13, 2020 3:02 pm

    Check out the regional climates at the Met Office link:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/regional-climates/southern-england_-climate—met-office.pdf

    “…there is an urban heat-island effect associated with London, caused by the fabric of the buildings retaining heat from day time insolation.

    This is most conspicuous overnight in cold spells with light winds from late autumn to early spring, when temperatures in central London can be over 5 °C higher than in the outer suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The heat-island is also evident in summer heat-waves.”

  7. Thomas Carr permalink
    February 13, 2020 11:33 pm

    So it would appear the Met office is publishing details of weather ‘sensations’ that its own records show to be otherwise. Do you , Paul, send them the evidence and ask for explanations as to their apparent partiality?

    I note Dennis Ambler’s remarks about the London microclimate. It is not just the retention of daytime heat by the fabric of the building which is the cause. It is the heat within
    the building itself. We have all seen those infra red images showing poor insulation, especially of older glazed elevations. . >

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      February 14, 2020 9:32 am

      TBH I hadn’t noticed a great deal of drama in the MSM or by MO over how mild the Winter has been (SO FAR!), too much else going on world wide and with storms/flooding which is far more apocalyptic.

      The CET is supposed to be as scientifically rigorous/consistent as possible and free of/compensated for UHI pollution, so in theory that is not an issue.

  8. February 14, 2020 10:28 am

    Drove from Shropshire to London a few years back in late November. At midnight, when I departed, temperature was -4c. Arriving in London at 3.30 am, car thermometer showed a temperature of +9 c. A thirteen degree Celsius difference in 150 miles! I would guess given its size and population that London has the greatest UHI effect in the world. Maybe why so many people down there believe in global warming.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      February 14, 2020 2:46 pm

      UHI can be mahooosive under some conditions but I expect your journey took you through a front, from one air mass to another – largely accounting for the temperature difference. We often get half the country very cold, half very mild, sometimes it’s even upside down and warmest up north!

  9. February 15, 2020 1:51 pm

    Graph of monthly seasonal CET temps 2000-2019 show flatlining. Spring trend: zero. Summer: zero. Autumn: minus 0.2 deg C. Winter: plus 0.1 deg C. Maybe not significant over 20 years, but curious, surely?

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