Skip to content

Met Office’s Jet Stream Deception

March 7, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

 

The latest, shall we say “more than a bit misleading” press release from the Met Office!

 image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/2020-winter-february-stats

 

 

What I particularly object to is this:

 

image

Notice how they have managed link movements in the jet stream to climate change, with no evidence to back it up whatsoever.

However, the UK rainfall figures are heavily skewed by Scotland rainfall, which for whatever reason, has increased markedly since the 1980s:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

 

Bearing in mind that the stormy weather, floods and jet stream movement being discussed have only affected England and Wales, you might have thought the Met Office would call on rainfall data for these two countries, instead of relying on Scotland to bump up the figures.

And when we do that, we find a totally different picture to the one painted by the Met Office:

 

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_qc.txt

 

Far from six out of ten years since 1998, we find that two years make it into the top ten – 2000 and 2012.

The wettest year was 1872, followed by 1768. And there is also evidence of clustering, such as 1848 & 1852, and 1872, 1877 & 1882. These prove that there is nothing unusual about the inclusion of two recent years, 2000 and 2012.

If annual rainfall totals are evidence of stormier weather, it is self evident that the recent wet and stormy weather has nothing at all to do with climate change.

It is a shame that the Met Office prefer to put their own alarmist spin on these matters, rather than give the public the facts.

25 Comments
  1. March 7, 2020 6:28 pm

    It’s equivalent to a butcher using a thumb on the scales.

  2. Pancho Plail permalink
    March 7, 2020 7:04 pm

    If you look at England rainfall for last February you would see one of the lowest on record. What a difference a year makes. Did the MO draw any conclusions from that?

  3. Tonyb permalink
    March 7, 2020 7:07 pm

    My interest is in English weather back to the domesday book.

    we have had some epic periods of rainfall that put the recorded figures graphed above into the shade. Several times there are well documented periods of virtually two years of continuous rain which caused famines and also numerous winter and summer events of catastrophic, landscape changing, rainfall and storms.

  4. Teaef permalink
    March 7, 2020 7:32 pm

    If it hadn’t been a leap year then wouldn’t much of storm Jorge rain would have been in March?

    • March 7, 2020 8:53 pm

      Exactly

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      March 7, 2020 9:10 pm

      That’s why all these records are pretty meaningless. Months etc. are just a human notion. If every month started a week later you would have an entirely different pattern of records. When the months don’t give the ‘right’ level of climate change narrative support, the BBC and MO resort to number crunching bingo, the hottest 7 day period, the wettest 14 days etc. With so many possible metrics and timescales, you have a near infinite number of possible combinations to declare record breaking.

  5. Harry Passfield permalink
    March 7, 2020 7:36 pm

    Maybe the SNP have overdone it and declared independence of weather: they can have as much rainfall/global warming as they like, but it won’t effect the rest of the UK. It’s just that the MO missed this. 🙂

  6. March 7, 2020 8:28 pm

    “Is this due to Climate Change …”.
    That rhetorical question they pose is self-referencing nonsense, of course any change in the climate is due to climate change.
    If there is a GHG trend signal at all in the data since 1860 it is very weak.
    The point is: on balance will a zero CO2 emissions policy make any difference and at what cost compared to normal adaption measures.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      March 7, 2020 8:42 pm

      Betteridge’s law of headlines. Betteridge’s law of headlines is an adage that states: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no”. It is named after Ian Betteridge, a British technology journalist who wrote about it in 2009, although the principle is much older.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

  7. March 7, 2020 9:21 pm

    Low solar activity during the 11 year solar cycle minimum causes wobbly jet streams.

    Paper suggests solar magnetic influence on Earth’s atmospheric pressure (2013)

    The North Atlantic jet stream correlates with Solar output over a millennium (2014)

    The solar cycle is at bottom again, with very low solar activity.

    Similar weather patterns occurred in 2010 during the last solar minimum, with the UK entirely covered by snow in winter of that year and the combined great Moscow heat wave and devastating Pakistan floods in the summer. Jet stream blocking caused both events.

    This solar activity link is inconvenient to the Met Office because they want to blame CO2 for everything. If the Sun causes it due to induced cyclic terrestrial magnetic field changes, then someone might notice the Sun does the same thing to global temperature via the Svensmark mechanism.

  8. Mark permalink
    March 7, 2020 10:27 pm

    ” World cooling is now locked in says Piers Corbyn, citing the decrease in average solar activity and a jet stream that is often further south than normal, resulting in extreme weather events. So what heats the Earth? Not man. Just 2 minutes of sunlight on earth is greater than all the energy we produce in one year. So that means it would take 262,800 years of current fossil energy use to equal one year of sunlight.
    Maniacs like Bill Gates who want to blot the sun out could wipe out our specie.

  9. dennisambler permalink
    March 7, 2020 11:55 pm

    “Far from six out of ten years since 1998, we find that two years make it into the top ten – 2000 and 2012.”

    The Met Office agrees with you:
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_seasonal/HadEWP_ranked_ssn.dat

  10. March 8, 2020 12:16 am

    Paul, You might like this story about CSIRO in Australia being caught ‘at it again’ in leaving important parts of reports out of what they tell the government
    https://www.advanceaustralia.org.au/csiro_caught_fudging_to_boost_climate_conspiracy

    • Mack permalink
      March 8, 2020 8:00 am

      Indeed. Jo Nova has the video. Excruciating viewing, if you are a true believer. As a skeptic, It’s actually quite entertaining watching the boffin squirm as he admits that he has no empirical evidence to support his agency’s claims that climate change is impacting bushfires. As Senator Ted Cruz regularly used to say to alarmist scientists at congressional hearings in the US, ‘show me the data’. The Australian CSIRO seem to have diddly squat to justify their wild assertions.

  11. Matt Dalby permalink
    March 8, 2020 12:26 am

    I’m not aware of any predictions that state climate change will lead to the jet stream moving south. Most predictions are for it weakening or moving north, as increased warming in the arctic reduces the temperature difference between the polar and temperate regions which is the main driver of the jet stream. This would mean that the last month has once again proved the models/predictions wrong.

    • Stonyground permalink
      March 8, 2020 7:51 am

      This has been my thought too. I seem to recall predictions of the UK having a Mediterranean climate and that droughts would become a regular problem. The fact that we are seeing the precise opposite of what was predicted doesn’t seem to bother the climate alarmists in the slightest. Massive government spending due to the prognostications of people who self evidently don’t have a clue what they are talking about.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      March 8, 2020 9:32 am

      As ever with the “science” there are studies afterwards that claim it’s all consistent. I do not recall any modelling that suggested the jet stream coming south, but the models and the science are so flexible that once it happens, it becomes part of the theory.

      Ot reminds me of the ongoing fat and heart disease idiocy – high cholesterol causes problems until you show people with low cholesterol suffer too, so just reduce the level you call high. Now everybody us high and everybody should be on stations. Don’t adjust the theory, adjust the data.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        March 8, 2020 10:58 am

        The adjustocene.

  12. Ariane permalink
    March 8, 2020 9:13 am

    Apart from human-designed computer models, there is no way to show that any ‘global warming’ is caused by humans, but the constant insinuation behind MO and BBC et al’s mention of ‘climate change’ is that it’s caused by us! So, the insinuation becomes a blame game and human progress is blamed for anything and everything that’s bad or different. That governments have passed ‘climate’ legislation based on insinuations and blame games is the biggest problem.

  13. Phoenix44 permalink
    March 8, 2020 9:27 am

    At least it’s a forecast we can test – if we don’t get wetter winters in the future, the theory fails.

    Pin it, and lets see what happens.

  14. David permalink
    March 9, 2020 10:49 pm

    The Met Office are definitely playing games with the figures. You can clearly see this because when one observes their time series graphs of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years, you will note that they have eliminated almost 200 years of temperature data to disguise the fact that between 1700 and 1735 the rate of warming was twice what has been observed in the last 50 years. I find this slight of hand disgusting because in it’s blatancy. It treats everyone with absolute contempt because the Met office have a 350 year continuous CET temperature record, which is the longest of it’s type anywhere in the world. It is obvious that by eliminating the early years of temperature data as they have chosen to do, this specifically shores up their pretence.

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: