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Analysis Of Latest Coronavirus Death Tolls

April 21, 2020

By Paul Homewood

Sorry if you’re all fed up with coronavirus stories, but I thought it worth presenting this analysis of the latest weekly deaths data from ONS for W/E 10th April.

 

 

 

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https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

In headline terms, 6213 deaths were registered in England & Wales during w/e 10th April, where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. Note that this does not necessarily mean a positive test – according to ONS:

A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020

There are of course lags, with some deaths not being registered for several days, so ONS helpfully also give data for deaths by date of death, as registered by 18th April.

This indicates that the actual death toll for w/e 10th April was 6146, slightly less than the headline figure:

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ONS also provide numbers for the whole of the UK, amounting to 6887:

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This compares with the daily totals published by the government, which only reflect deaths in hospitals, amounting to 5353, a difference of 1534:

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

Effectively, the difference is made up of deaths outside hospitals, which in England & Wales totalled 1256:

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One of the things which has shocked statisticians is the dramatic increase in excess deaths in the last fortnight. That is the numbers of deaths over the normally expected.

The latest figures show excess deaths of 8000 during w/e 10th April, much greater than COVID-19 toll. But what is a bigger mystery is that deaths from respiratory disease are only a few hundred more than usual. It is after all generally understood that COVID-19 is primarily a killer because it leads to pneumonia.

[It must be pointed out here that the respiratory disease line below INCLUDES deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned. In other words, the same deaths can appear in both numbers].

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It may be that many COVID-19 deaths have underlying causes such as lung cancer, which would not appear as “respiratory disease”, and as such may only have shortened lives by a few weeks or months in most cases. We would need to wait for the ONS analysis by cause of death to judge this.

But there is one more clue.

If we compare care home deaths, we see that total deaths (not just COVID-19) have increased by 2438 since w/e 27th March. Yet COVID-19 only accounts for 806 of this increase:

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The suspicion is that many died in care homes after falling ill with coronavirus, just in the same way as happens with flu, gastro enteritis, bad colds and so on.

That does not mean that COVID-19 killed them any more than the bad cold did to others.

It is sad when anybody dies, but, without wanting to appear heartless, my guess is that when the year is over these excess deaths in care homes will be no more than a blip, and that mortality in care homes will be little different to an average year.

54 Comments
  1. Thomas Carr permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:03 pm

    Yes, we need perspective as to : age distribution, historic mortality ,geographic dispersal and other determinants of probability. And so will the government before long. So thanks for the effort.

  2. MrGrimNasty permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:12 pm

    Jo Nova seems to be convinced CV19 is the end of the world satan bug.

    It worries me when I see people with a view I largely respect on one topic (climate and energy) lose the plot. Heller does it with JFK and politics. It makes me think they sound verging on nuts and I begin to doubt my own judgement.

    I’ve been trying to be a voice of reason. I posted this on an open thread.

    More perspective on the hype of CV19 versus reality and the crazy unwarranted economic suicidal response.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

    The BBC “Number dying hits 20-year high”, so you only have to go back 20 years to find worse? Really not that serious then is it!

    Well really the ‘hype’ is worse than even that suggest.

    For very similar weekly mortality rates you only need go back to the influenza A(H3N2) subtype (which also predominantly affected older people), which was circulating from about 2014/15. There were sequences of at least 3 weeks each with England and Wales deaths in the 15,000-16,500 per week range.

    So CV19 really is no worse than a bad flu season.

    You’ll still get people saying oh well if it wasn’t for the lockdown it would have ‘exploded’, yet all the evidence from Sweden is that that isn’t the case, modest measures v. economic suicide and Sweden is better off all round.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      April 21, 2020 12:20 pm

      Source – Page 8 Weekly Deaths Since 2011

      Click to access CBP-8281.pdf

      • A C Osborn permalink
        April 21, 2020 2:16 pm

        Funny you should have a go at Jo.
        She was right at the beginning castigating her government for not reacting quickly enough as 80% of their early cases were all incoming flyers.
        When her government got their act together they now have one of the very best performances against COVID19.
        New Zealand who adopted the correct procedures from day one has a world class performance against COVID19 and shows up Sweden’s response for what it is with only 13 deaths.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        April 21, 2020 4:42 pm

        Jo is very much convinced shutting everything down tight and destroying the economy is sensible and that this is a really dangerous disease but it has not infected a high proportion of people who were asymptomatic.

        It’s obvious it’s made little difference what policies have been adopted, and that population density etc. and other factors dominate.

        It’s also obvious the casualty figures are not that bad.

      • April 21, 2020 7:26 pm

        Oz gets little mention in the MSM, but it is an extreme outlier, the opposite end to Sweden, they have draconian lockdown, absurd rules such as no surfing, very very low levels of infection and death … and no signs of lockdown being eased. Sky Australia via youtube is a good way to monitor lockdown exasperation in Oz, but not of course shared by the lefty ABC and similar.

      • April 22, 2020 7:59 am

        ACO. NZ did not adopt correct procedures or do them early. Until very recently, people could still enter without quarantine. All that kept the toll low was us being 2000km from anywhere. Australia has comparable cases and deaths to us, and they haven’t collapsed the economy anywhere near as much.

      • nessimmersion permalink
        April 22, 2020 11:59 pm

        I’ll defer to your local knowledge of Portsea island.
        Assuming that is the case, does it have the highest incidence of Covid 19?

    • Russ Wood permalink
      April 21, 2020 1:33 pm

      In South Africa’s lockdown, we have people saying that they’d rather take the chance of dying from Covid, than the very real possibility of starving to death, with no money to buy food. A very large proportion of the population are very poor, and live hand-to-mouth on the money they earn from small jobs each day. No work, no pay, no food! SA is stony broke, and there’s almost no money left to supply the really poor. And to add to that, when there IS enough for food parcel handouts, some local councillors steal the parcels!

    • Dave Ward permalink
      April 21, 2020 1:42 pm

      “Jo Nova seems to be convinced CV19 is the end of the world Satan bug”

      Yes, it’s rather sad that such a well respected blogger should go completely over the top like that. I haven’t looked at her site for weeks now.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      April 21, 2020 2:07 pm

      There is no way that you should compare Sweden with the UK due to many differences, but the main one is Population/populatio density.
      When correctly compare Sweden with other low population Nordic countries you get a much more correct picture.
      Number of Cases depends totally on number tested.
      But not Deaths.
      Sweden 156/M population
      Norway 33/M population
      Denmark 63/M population
      Finland 18/M population
      or
      The Swedish System allowed them to become infected and they died.
      Norway 181 dead
      Denmark 64 dead
      Finland 98 dead
      Total 343 dead
      Sweden 1580 dead
      The Swedish system caused 1237 excess deaths compared to the other 3 nordic countries, or if you compare to each country separately it is even worse..

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        April 21, 2020 5:32 pm

        NZ esp. and Oz had much more time to react and are completely different. The claim that the NZ’s policy of kindness and love helped, shows how nuts the commentary has become.

        Sweden has a higher population density than Norway or Finland, but the crucial factor is the very densely housed immigrant population.

        “2.6 million of a total population of 10.2 million – is of recent non-Swedish descent. The share is even higher in the Stockholm region. Immigrants from Somalia, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan are highly over-represented among COVID-19 deaths. This has been attributed partly to a lack of information in immigrants’ languages. But a more important factor seems to be the housing density in some immigrant-heavy suburbs, enhanced by closer physical proximity between generations.”

        As you effectively admit yourself, quoting raw stats is essentially irrelevant when there are so many unknown and known complicated different factors affecting the outcome in each situation.

        What you (and Jo) are failing to consider is the cost/benefit ratio and the FINAL outcome. You are not saving fit healthy people with decades to live, merely people that will be taken out by something else next week or nest month.

        The logic of a lockdown is inescapable if you suggest it has worked, because you risk a resurgence (taking the lives that you claimed to have saved), so it has to remain in place, waiting for a vaccine that will never come in a reasonable time, if ever. Best let the virus rip and get it over with. You are also failing to consider the thousands of lost and shortened lives in an impoverished future.

        Sweden has done well. It has not destroyed its economy. Absolute deaths are not unacceptably high. There is a much lower risk of a second wave.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

      • April 21, 2020 6:42 pm

        Scotland has roughly half the population of Sweden yet has a higher case fatality rate and more deaths per capita. However Scotland has been under lockdown since March 24th, and the First Minister has hinted that lockdown will continue for as long as she sees fit.

    • saparonia permalink
      April 23, 2020 12:18 am


      This is a video of a Swedish specialist, an advisor to WHO, and his observations. It’s due to the panic reaction of our governments to advice from WHO that the economy, our autonomy and education are all but ruined. He is quite open, and demonstrates a sensible approach to our current mess.
      Another thing is that we have to take into account that Gates stirred things up from the start. He’s going to have a monopoly on the payments for any vaccination – and future vaccinations as flu virus’s only survive by mutating. A new unlimited tax paid to him personally.

  3. Pancho Plail permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:15 pm

    Thanks Paul, it was well the effort to pull all these figures together and extract some real meaning from them. everyone seems to be playing the statistics game at the moment, and presenting just the figures that suit the point they are trying to make. I think it is clear from the above that there has been a lot of exaggeration going on, especially the specious classification of many deaths as resulting from CV when a reading of the explanatory notes shows clearly that CV was simply present and contributed by an unspecified proportion (anywhere between zero and 100 per cent) to the death.

  4. JimW permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:23 pm

    Please inspect the ‘all ages’ excess deaths graphs on Euro Momo. http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
    The only reasoon the deaths are ‘excess’ in these weeks is because its happening outside the normal seasonal flu season ( mid-winter). The amplitude, duration and shape of the current excess deaths due to covid -19 is exactly the same as that of 2018 influenza.
    There has been no excess deaths from influenza in 2019/20, so the covid-19 virus has caused the deaths of patients who would normally have died 4 months EARLIER.
    There is no difference between Sweden with no lockdown and UK, France, Spain, Italy ets with lockdow; the excess deaths curve is exactly the same. This virus kills exactly the same older and infirm patients who die from seasonal flu. Lockdown just locked up the healthy.
    The morbidity stats are not manipulated etc, which all the others are. It is the only one that you can use to formulate policy.
    And the trend is firmly DOWN, everywhere.
    This is a coronavirus not the spanish flu, there will be no ‘2nd wave’, its just fearmongering.

  5. john cooknell permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:24 pm

    History tells us what happens next. 1918 flu pandemic was initially contained by closing churches, schools, meeting houses, pubs etc.

    Under pressure from Church, schools, etc the government relaxed closedown, and the 2nd wave of infection killed more than the first.

    So the kids will go back to school all equipped with their re-usable drinking bottles, all topped up from the same source tap. I just hope the infection stays away from children. I still witness this going on in hospitals and have tried to point out the obvious infection route, but nobody is listening to me as single use plastic is unthinkable!

    At times like this single use plastic is your friend, I don’t buy any food that is not wrapped in plastic.

    Strangely the advice from Food Standards Agency is Covid 19 infection is unlikely from food, and I thought that is how it first transferred from animals to humans.I looked and asked for the science behind the FSA advice and found like most things with Covid 19 there is none, the FSA sort of made it up!

    • JimW permalink
      April 21, 2020 12:57 pm

      CV-19 is a coronavirus, not influenza, there will be no 2nd wave, this just fearmongering.
      It is not ‘spanish flu’ or ‘the plague’ its a nastly cold bug that attacks the lung cells of the infirm and old and stops the blood getting oxygen. There will be no vaccine, there will be no magic cure. CV-19 will become one of many coronaviruses that humans have learned to live with.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        April 21, 2020 5:36 pm

        Well if the lockdown strategy did ‘work’, there will almost certainly be a second wave, that’s why it was a stupid strategy too late in the day.

        But CV19 is’t the big one, all fear and hype.

      • john cooknell permalink
        April 21, 2020 7:45 pm

        So in 1918 they could differentiate coronavirus from influenza?

        With so many armchair epidemiologists around I cannot understand why this hasn’t all been solved long ago.

        The truth is nobody knows, and that is the point. Until we know how many of us have had the virus, all this debate is pointless.

  6. It doesn't add up... permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:33 pm

    Incidentally, I find it helpful to download the latest data from the PHE dashboard and the NHS which now attribute cases to date of test sample and deaths to true date. Then run a 7 day centred moving average to get rid of weekly artefacts in the data (care is less at weekends, with consequences for daily data). It’s clear that we ate now well past the peak, which for deaths was 8th April. The interesting question is how much in advance of deaths and notified cases were patients being infected, and how does that relate to the social distancing and hygiene regime and the lockdown.

    More insight can be gained by looking at the data by local authority, especially when adjusted for population. There are variations in timing of epidemic peaks, with London starting earlier and peaking earlier, and some areas suffering a much more recent upsurge. Newport, Cardiff and London have seen the highest case rates, an order of magnitude higher than say the Isle of Wight and Rutland.

    The excess non virus deaths are clearly an important factor. Delayed treatments are going to make that much worse in the coming months. Perhaps specialists in oncology and hematology etc. may be able to provide forecasts. They should be asked.

  7. Harry Passfield permalink
    April 21, 2020 12:50 pm

    A story coming out of the US (ok, it was the DM) had an ER doctor claim that Covid19 should not be treated as a pneumonia but more as altitude sickness. He claimed that 80% of patients on ventilators died, many as a result of the ventilator itself. He preferred high doses of oxygen therapy as it was the body’s inability to absorb enough of it that was the problem.

    • Broadlands permalink
      April 21, 2020 1:26 pm

      The story in the US back in January from the CDC leadership was the virus is probably only the flu…

      (1) https://www.idse.net/Respiratory-Tract-Infections—Influenza/Article/01-20/It’s-Probably-the-Flu-Not-Coronavirus/57157

      And the media is all over Trump for not acting sooner?

    • Dave Ward permalink
      April 21, 2020 1:51 pm

      Here’s a link to a 22 minute video (with subtitles) produced by a German doctor and the clinic he works at:

      He is saying much the same as the American ER doctor, although (from my understanding of the detailed explanation) it’s not just “altitude sickness”, but related to the haemoglobin levels in the blood. He says this is why simply putting patients on a ventilator is NOT the one-stop answer, and can actually make their condition worse.

      • dave permalink
        April 22, 2020 10:17 am

        “…haemoglobin…”

        This is the hypothesis that covid-19 virus happens to inactivate haemoglobin in the red blood cells; and the lungs and heart must then labour to counter what is (effectively) suffocation. A tell-tale sign is said to be that covid-19 patients often have double pneumonia (in both lungs). An infection simply coming from outside would normally cause single pneumonia.

    • Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
      April 21, 2020 3:04 pm

      Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) machines are claimed to enhance people with respiratory challenges — and much less invasive.

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        April 21, 2020 7:04 pm

        (re CPAP) Mainly, as I understand it, the patient does not need to be sedated. If I go into ICU with the aim of going on a ventilator, being sedated would mean end of life for me, as far as I am concerned.

  8. April 21, 2020 12:58 pm

    Have been wondering a lot recently, among all the hysteria, false reporting, fudged figures, actual causes of death etc,etc, what will the actual figures look like, when most of the dust has settled ? Thanks so much, Paul, for kicking us off in the right direction.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      April 21, 2020 7:06 pm

      IMHO it will depend whether the dust that settles is red or blue (‘tother way round for the USA).

  9. mjr permalink
    April 21, 2020 1:27 pm

    and of course, what is still missing from the only “numbers” situation is the number of people that have had covid but either asymptomatically or unreported self medication. so we dont know what percentage have been infected and so what death rates are . just looking at absolute deaths is meaningless. i think i had the bug three weeks ago. but i dont know.. and until i get tested for antibodies the stats wont know. the few stats we have for testing in a controlled limited population seem to indicate that this is not a highly contagious nor particularly deadly bug. the old adage – “lies, damned lies, the BBC, and statistics ” seems to apply. no one has the data and basically nobody in authority knows what the **** is happening .

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      April 21, 2020 3:34 pm

      I certainly had “something” in mid-January which manifested itself as short of breath and a bit light-headed first thing in the morning and a low-level “I’ve been better” feeling for the rest of the day. I was thinking of contacting my GP but it passed.

      I don’t have a clue what it was but since none of my neighbours seem to have caught anything serious (including the two very elderly ladies we take to church every week) I assume it was nothing. My point is that I don’t know and the symptoms, insofar as I had any, were consistent with those described as characteristic of a very mild case of Corvid-19. Nobody I know — and we’re none of us more or less hypochondriac than the next man — would trouble their GP for those symptoms unless they persisted beyond the normal duration of a winter cold.

      So how many millions with similar symptoms have contracted this virus, thought nothing about it and gone about their daily lives without anyone being any the wiser? We are drowning in a muddy pond of dubious statistics. The death rate is, agreed, horrendous. At first sight. But if the figures of those admitted to hospital (care homes are slightly different) are only the tip of an iceberg then we are seeing not 16,500 deaths from 125,000 cases (which frankly seems unlikely) but 16,500 deaths from at least 1.25 million cases which in itself is probably itself an overstatement of the actual death rate.

      Let’s not downplay the seriousness of this virus. I think Jim W is being over-optimistic about the second wave, simply because it’s not a flu virus and is not likely to be as seasonal. But likewise let’s not over-hype it. Somewhere along the line we will have to live with this new member of the coronavirus family and some of us will die with it. Or if not of that, something else, sooner or later!

      • Bertie permalink
        April 21, 2020 9:46 pm

        I heartily concur with this. I,too, underwent a strange type of flu at the end of January characterised exactly by the described symptoms of this type of flu. After 2 weeks of a severe cough which meant I was unable to sleep other than briefly sitting in a chair, I eventually went to my Doctor (driven by my lady friend!) as it was taking so long to clear up.
        This was, of course before the Corona Virus became ‘fashionable’. My blood test showed a severe drop in my white blood cell count which corrected itself over the next week without medication.
        I found it extraordinary that a Doctor was lauded for coming up with the ‘novel’ idea of turning patients on to their fronts which apparently led to lives being saved. The Nurse at my Prep School Sanatorium advised this during the Asian flu epidemic of 1957, which I believe killed some 200,00 – a much greater percentage of the then population. It was not then found necessary to impose a lockdown on the entire country and its economy. Indeed I doubt if the more stoical people of that generation would have so obligingly acquiesced to such an obviation of normalcy as today’s crop appear to – even, apparently, to the extent of shopping their neighbours!
        For the record I am 72 years-old and have a slight case of emphysema which was aggravated by this flu.

  10. Richard permalink
    April 21, 2020 2:27 pm

    “In Italy, it has been established that only around 12% of the people listed as having died of the coronavirus were killed by it. The other 88% almost certainly died of something else. (The Italian Government’s scientific advisor reported that anyone who dies in Italy and who has the coronavirus will be listed as having died of the coronavirus. The National Institute of Health revaluated the death certificates and concluded that only 12% showed a direct causality from the coronavirus. )”

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      April 21, 2020 5:40 pm

      Hardly surprising, that area of Italy hardest hit has one of the highest death tolls every year, it’s one of the most air polluted (unlike most of the usual pollution hype it’s pretty real there) places in Europe and has an elderly population.

  11. andrewgreen1234 permalink
    April 21, 2020 2:58 pm

    Useful info, Paul, as always!

    One point which it would be useful to have your (and other readers’) view/opinions/insights on is the situation with missing recovery figures. The UK appears to be the only country in the world not showing recovery figures!

    For about 10 days in March, it was showing as 135, then it increased to (from memory) 288 for a few days, then suddenly it became ‘N/A’. Prior to the disappearance, we could see that our recovery rate was abysmal – again, from memory, I think it was either 2% or 4%.

  12. andrewgreen1234 permalink
    April 21, 2020 3:09 pm

    My worry is that the NHS has such a monolithic top-down structure, with everyone living in fear of setting foot outside the box of ‘acceptable’ treatments, that we are not trying anything except the standard ventilation protocol for ARDS (Acute Respiratory Disease Syndrome). This amount to a protocol of using the ‘standard’ respiratory disease ventilation protocol and just alternating crossing their fingers and wringing their hands, until people either die or stage a ‘miraculous’ recovery.

    It is certainly possible that, due to the combined factors of the NHS becoming even more of a quasi-religious cult, combined with the heavily politicised nature of the beast, we might well have ended up with one of the worst healthcare systems in the world, in terms of actually using the best treatments from a very wide range of possibilities (including non-standard protocols and ‘alternative’ medicine treatments) to actually cure a person of a disease, rather than equating ‘cure’ with (often temporary) masking/removal of obvious disease symptoms.

  13. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    April 21, 2020 3:10 pm

    Also in the news from Washington State, but likely all over:
    “People accidentally poisoned by household cleaners spike since stay-home order”

    One issue has been wiping one’s mask with Chlorine bleach.
    Another: wiping produce with hand sanitizer.

  14. Teaef permalink
    April 21, 2020 4:12 pm

    BBC says 20 year high for deaths.
    So, what happened 20 years ago?

  15. nessimmersion permalink
    April 21, 2020 4:47 pm

    Question about population density and relevance of national comparisons for Coronavirus infections.
    When people say Sweden is less densely populated than the UK do they mean the conurbations in Sweden are more spread out, that urban Malmo is less densely populated that N Yorkshire for example?
    If population density made that much difference, the most densely populated islands of the UK – Jersey and Guernsey- would have the highest infection rates – No?

    • gosportmike permalink
      April 22, 2020 9:23 pm

      The most densely populated island in the UK is Portsmouth.

  16. Jason permalink
    April 21, 2020 7:16 pm

    Couldn’t some people in care homes be dying prematurely because of increased stress from fear and loneliness as visits are banned a staff wear masks?

    Among the general population, could fatalities not have increased because lots of ill people who ought to be getting hospital treatment aren’t at the moment. The predicted tsunami of covid patients did not materialise and most hospitals are underworked at the moment.

  17. April 21, 2020 7:41 pm

    As per note 5 in section 3 on the ONS week 15 link you reference, if death certificates are marked with both Covid and Pneumonia they have only been counted in the Covid category… so this point in you article, and the argument it underpins is not right.

    • April 21, 2020 10:08 pm

      No, your’elooking at the wrong link.

      The reference you need is on the spreadsheet here:

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

      see the Weekly Figures tab, line 16- quote:

      “Note: Deaths could possibly be counted in both causes presented. If a death had an underlying respiratory cause and a mention of COVID-19 then it would appear in both counts.”

      Your reference relates to the graph in a separate ONS analysis, here:

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020#deaths-registered-by-week

      rather than the actual data

      • April 22, 2020 1:22 am

        Well if you look at the actual data it strikes me that both you (and the ONS!) have it wrong.

        The spreadsheet for week 15 contains respiratory numbers of:
        wk14 1965
        wk15 1810

        The xls for the plot with comment I referred to to:
        wk14 2367
        wk15 2003

        So I think the ONS have their notes the wrong way round and the sheet that you refer to in the article is NOT double counting, but the plot is. This would explain why I’ve always thought the lines in that plot looked too high for the numbers in the sheet.

        Further evidence for this is that In the week 14 spreadsheet week 14 respiratory numbers were 2016, and in the corresponding plot xls at 2367, but in the spreadsheet for week 15 you’ll note they’ve revised down the week 14 number to 1965, clearly to correct some sort of partial double counting error they initially overlooked.

        So the sheet numbers look like non-Covid pneumonia to me which would mean my point stands, but this would need confirming with the ONS, and given this number is still at the average and trending about 300 higher that it had been up to week 13 it does not look like Covid has lowered non-Covid respiratory deaths, if anything there is an increase due to a mixture of untested Covid and untreated lockdown fear-induced mortality.

        The good news is they are getting a better handle on true fear-induced mortality as there has been a reduction between week 14 and 15 of this overtrend in respiratory numbers (1965 -> 1810), likely due to an increase in in-community testing meaning Covid is being more accurately added to death certificates.

  18. John Warren permalink
    April 21, 2020 8:42 pm

    In 2019 6,000 persons died in UK from Influenza. Most likely the majority of these would have been in the period January – March. I would like to know how many have died from Influenza in first quarter 2020. I have a feeling that many had influenza, caught Covid 19 and died attributed to Covid 19. Could we get some figures ?

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      April 22, 2020 9:40 am

      As I posted above, look at flu 2015, 16500 deaths in the worst week, only 2000 less than CV19.

      CV19 has not even returned the death rate to the ‘norm’ just 20-40 years ago when it was higher.

  19. It doesn't add up... permalink
    April 21, 2020 9:50 pm

    Looking at the numbers in England in a different way:

    https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OvtCA/1/

  20. April 22, 2020 1:27 am

    Thanks for the very clear breakdown. You may be interested in the approach I have taken to put the latest numbers in context. http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

  21. donald penman permalink
    April 22, 2020 2:58 am

    sign the petition to end lockdown
    http://chng.it/Q429tGhx2b

  22. MrGrimNasty permalink
    April 22, 2020 9:44 am

    As other experts have found/suspected, CV19 appears self-limiting, runs a course of a few weeks, lockdowns not responsible for apparent decrease in transmission.

    https://infekt.ch/2020/04/sind-wir-tatsaechlich-im-blindflug/

    (Need to use translate!)

    • A C Osborn permalink
      April 22, 2020 5:22 pm

      I suggest that you try telling that to the Chinese.
      They allowed COVID19 to run unfettered for 1 month in Wuhan and then had to introduce a total lockdown and I do mean lockdown.
      The majority of people were not allowed out for nay purpose, many were actually locked in and others put in camps.
      It took a further 76 days of lockdown to get it under control.
      Of course they did all that because after 1 month it had run it’s course.

  23. Ben Vorlich permalink
    April 22, 2020 5:57 pm

    England and Wales week 1 to 15 deaths, work out the average for the year so far
    2018 2020
    12,723 12,254
    15,050 14,058
    14,256 12,990
    13,935 11,856
    13,285 11,612
    12,495 10,986
    12,246 10,944
    12,142 10,841
    10,854 10,816
    12,997 10,895
    12,788 11,019
    11,913 10,645
    9,941 11,141
    10,794 16,387
    12,301 18,516

  24. matelot65 permalink
    April 23, 2020 8:47 am

    Is it true that having the “flu jab” in the past few years will give a positive reading for C19? If so, there is something very strange going on!

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