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A global context for megadroughts in monsoon Asia during the past millennium

May 24, 2020
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By Paul Homewood

This paper appeared in my inbox, for some reason! It is from 2010, but is still highly relevant, since it finds evidence of megadroughts in India, China and Vietnam during the 14th and 15thC, directly linked to the onset of the Little Ice Age.

The authors make it clear these megadroughts have no match in the current era:

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https://www.academia.edu/25345390/A_global_context_for_megadroughts_in_monsoon_Asia_during_the_past_millennium

 

These megadroughts are consistent with HH Lamb’s findings, that an expanding Arctic squeezes the tropical rain belts more tightly around the equator. In other words, while the tropics get wetter, the monsoon in India and elsewhere does not tend to go as far north.

This paper also provides yet more evidence that the Little Ice Age truly was a global phenomenon.

16 Comments
  1. May 24, 2020 10:37 pm

    It was always hard to see how a long-lasting climate phenomenon such as the LIA could be confined to a limited portion of a spinning planet.

    • dearieme permalink
      May 24, 2020 11:00 pm

      Because the LIA was racist of course.

  2. David Vaughey permalink
    May 24, 2020 10:49 pm

    Seen this yet?

    UNNWO.ORG

    On Sun 24 May 2020, 22:12 NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT, wrote:

    > Paul Homewood posted: “By Paul Homewood This paper appeared in my inbox, > for some reason! It is from 2010, but is still highly relevant, since it > finds evidence of megadroughts in India, China and Vietnam during the 14th > and 15thC, directly linked to the onset of the Littl” >

  3. Jackington permalink
    May 24, 2020 10:55 pm

    Very interesting – your inbox seems to have almost magical powers to attact relative info. Thanks for sharing it.

  4. May 24, 2020 11:09 pm

    Can anyone tell me if the Ice Age also increased the size of Antarctica? Did the Southern ice coverage increase as well?

    • dave permalink
      May 25, 2020 8:48 am

      “…increased the size of Antarctica…?”

      For the ice sheet – yes:

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379114002522

      Clearly, this reconstruction of history is a ‘work in progress.’

      For the true seasonal ‘sea-ice’ (beyond the ‘grounding line’) – unknowable, I would think.

      • dave permalink
        May 25, 2020 9:12 am

        Sorry, that was the wrong link.

        This is more relevant:

        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027737910100083X

      • May 25, 2020 10:52 am

        Apologies I did mean the ice sheet. Also we only seem to hear about the reduction in sea levels during the Ice Age? What did that do to places like the Himalayas, S E Asia and Australia and NZ?

      • Mad Mike permalink
        May 25, 2020 12:28 pm

        If I’ve read the article correctly, and that’s a big if for me, the Western Antarctic region lost more ice than the East. Isn’t the Western region where they found all those undersea volcanos? They might not be a new feature.

      • dave permalink
        May 25, 2020 12:48 pm

        Every place was four hundred feet higher relative to sea level. The atmosphere was the same body, but lowered four hundred feet relative to any place on the land. Temperatures, therefore, would have been generally a little lower over most of our present land, because of the lapse rate. There were other factors, of course.

        Extra land was exposed at the coasts. Perhaps civilization started there, but any record is lost.

  5. May 25, 2020 2:12 am

    So now that Covid has taught them that fear does work if it is at high enough level what I really fear is that their fear machine will be in high gear and Rafe Champion in Australia writes in his blog

    https://catallaxyfiles.com/

    that it already is down undah where they now have a program in place to identify climate change as the cause of death when writing death certificates.

  6. May 25, 2020 2:48 am

    Dendrochronological studies specifically of past droughts make more sense and are more credible than their use to reconstruct past global temperatures particularly when dodgy statistical methods like sample selection on the dependent variable are employed to arrive at a predetermined result.

    • May 25, 2020 12:24 pm

      You mean like the 20 trees from the 250 data base on the Yamal Peninsula used by UEA’s “motley CRU”? Of course one fellow really broke ranks and used THREE trees. Now there’s data you can trust……

      • Gerry, England permalink
        May 25, 2020 12:56 pm

        And then sticking on a completely different dataset at the end because the tree rings showed a decline in temperature at that point….

      • May 26, 2020 11:56 am

        Gerry, England: Dendrochronology is useless for CO2 as there is just too much “noise” with the data. Temperature and precipitation is much more useful information from tree rings.

        I remember going to Mesa Verde, Colorado in the 1960’s. They had used the technique to date the cliff-dwellings by overlapping the rings from the dwellings down to the present and coming up with the 1200’s. They also solved the mystery of the rather sudden abandonment of the communities. Tree rings showed a drought of many years causing the corn crops grown on top of the mesas to fail.

        But it ain’t no good for CO2. Even if UEA’s Motley CRU says so.

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