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India’s Rice Harvest May Hit Record High After Above Average Monsoon Season

July 13, 2020
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood



Indian farmers have planted 12 million hectares with summer-sown rice, preliminary farm ministry data for this year showed, up 25% from last year as robust monsoon rains encouraged the expansion of acreage.

Buoyed by the plentiful rains, rice farmers are likely to harvest a record crop and step up overseas sales from the world’s biggest exporter of the grain.

Farmers start planting rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts among other crops from June 1, when monsoon rains reach India. Nearly half of India’s farmland lacks irrigation and planting usually lasts through July.

The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare issued preliminary figures for planting from June 1-July 10, which are subject to revision as it gathers more information from state governments.

The area planted with cotton was at 10.5 million hectares, up from 7.8 million hectares at the same time last year.

Sowing of oilseeds was at 13.9 million hectares, compared with 7.5 million hectares at the same time in 2019.

Planting of pulses touched 6.4 million hectares, sharply higher than 2.4 million hectares in the previous year.

India has received 14% higher than average rain since the monsoon season began on June 1.

Full story


 daily evolution of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall, 2020

daily evolution of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall, cumulative, 2020

All India Rainfall 2020


This summer looks like following last year’s, which also had well above average rainfall.

The Indian Monsoon is heavily influenced by ENSO, with recent droughts all coinciding with El Ninos.


All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall based on IITM/IMD homogenous Indian monthly rainfall data


Over the longer timeframe, there is little or no trend at all in Monsoon Rainfall.

  1. Broadlands permalink
    July 13, 2020 5:47 pm

    As stated earlier… Monsoons are “A fact of life”. Like the related ENSO, the monsoons are natural events that pay little attention to an addition of CO2 by concerned and alarmed humans.

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      July 13, 2020 6:28 pm

      CO2 fertilises the rice. It’s a good thing.

  2. July 13, 2020 6:46 pm

    8:30pm Radio4 Humans vs the Planet
    “How to think radically about the environment without being an eco-fascist.”

    Balsa Lubarda @LubardaB
    “Very excited to be on @BBCRadio4 tonight to speak about #FarRightEcologism
    and radical environments.”

    Angela Joy Allison @anjijoy
    ‘whites’ make up 12% of the world’s population, yet cause over 75% of the environmental harms.
    If ‘humans are the virus’, the solution doesn’t rest with wiping out ‘non-whites’

    • July 14, 2020 11:15 am

      “Stewgreen” These people are sick. I’m so ill informed, I wasn’t even aware we were contemplating the genocide of any race

  3. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    July 13, 2020 6:49 pm

    In the middle of the last century, textbooks explained the South Asia monsoons in a very simple – and wrong – manner. The seasons are now better understood, and make fascinating reading. Fix a drink and get some popcorn.
    Search with some of these words:

    – Indian Monsoon Mechanism: Jet Stream
    – subtropical jet stream Himalayas monsoon
    – role of tropical easterly jet

    If interested in history and trade, consider the reversal of winds along the East African coast and to India.
    – The East African monsoon system
    – dhows Indian Ocean

  4. July 13, 2020 7:58 pm

    If it does indeed achieve a record anyone betting on the odds against the BBC and their besties in the Gruaniad publishing it?

  5. ellyssen permalink
    July 13, 2020 8:24 pm

    Hi Paul,
    FYI, 3 years ago, you put out an article on a journal report from “Nature” was claiming that 3 more years would block the ability to save the world, I.E. dooming the world if we did not reduce temperatue. Just a reminder in case you wanted to do another story on it.

  6. July 13, 2020 9:29 pm

    “India’s rice harvest may hit record high after above average rainfall”

    Are climate alarmism language and methods so cool that they are worth mimicking?

  7. July 13, 2020 10:32 pm

    That looks backbreaking.
    More mechanised harvesting will improve yields and rural well-being.

    Another factor in agricultural productivity is the availability of power.
    “Power availability per hectare is a common indicator of mechanization. A strong linear relationship between power available and agricultural productivity was observed in case of India”.

    • ianprsy permalink
      July 13, 2020 10:48 pm

      There’s been a flurry of “Save the Donkey” charity adverts on TV recently, and pitiful specimens they are. If only the people abusing the animals had access to this quality of resource. Of course, it’s too much to expect our animal rights and green charities to join the dots.

    • Broadlands permalink
      July 14, 2020 1:07 am

      Robot… And not just in agricultural productivity, but in all productivity. After all, if a producer cannot get products delivered to markets more than a battery’s worth of distance away, they will do no good. Power availability for transportation should make those with serious attempts at urgently lowering CO2 emissions reevaluate their position. But, it’s likely that it will not. There is too much invested in climate alarm?

    • JCalvertN permalink
      July 15, 2020 10:21 am

      The “backbreaking” work in the picture in rice planting not harvesting.
      Planting rice is never fun
      Bent from morn till the set of sun,
      Cannot stand and cannot sit,
      Cannot rest for a little bit. (Song from the Philippines)

    • JCalvertN permalink
      July 17, 2020 4:18 pm

      Mechanised rice planter

  8. It doesn't add up... permalink
    July 14, 2020 1:48 am

    This looks like several vested interested having a go at setting the agenda for BEIS:

    It looks like a case of “La, la la, we’re not listening unless you are an ultra green”

    The following participants have been invited to deliver a ‘pitch’:
    (1) The decarbonisation of heating: Dr Jan Rosenow, Principal and European
    Programme Director, Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)
    (2) The future of hydrogen: Carbon Capture and Storage Association (CCSA)
    (3) Industrial decarbonisation and consumption emissions: Energy Intensive Users
    Group (EIUG)
    (4) Carbon pricing: Zero Carbon Campaign
    (5) Negative emissions technologies: WWF, Ember and researchers from Chatham
    House’s Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
    (6) Net Zero and a ‘Just Transition’: Grantham Research Institute, London School
    of Economics (LSE)
    (7) Fuel poverty strategy: National Energy Action (NEA)
    (8) Net zero consumer protections: Citizens Advice
    (9) Role of local government in delivering net zero: London Councils
    (10) Institutional arrangements to meet net zero: Professor Paul Ekins, Director;
    Professor of Resources and Environmental Policy, University College London
    (UCL) Institute for Sustainable Resources
    (11) Digitalising the economy: Aldersgate Group

    more details here:

    any sensible proposals have been ignored.

  9. AZ1971 permalink
    July 14, 2020 6:56 am

    Looking at the record since 1870, the anomaly in rainfall follows a sine wave pattern. I’d like to know whether that oscillating pattern is more the result of the Indian Ocean (IO) periodic warming/cooling—or some other cyclical, normal climatic function.

    • July 14, 2020 10:04 am

      Looks a good match for the PDO

      El Ninos usually mean drought and La Ninas flood

      • JCalvertN permalink
        July 17, 2020 4:13 pm

        I think it’s the other way round in California.

  10. July 14, 2020 10:00 am

    The Indian Monsoon is heavily influenced by ENSO, with recent droughts all coinciding with El Ninos.

    No El Nino since 2016, and there’s unlikely to be one this year either with NOAA issuing a La Nina watch.

  11. Mad Mike permalink
    July 14, 2020 6:51 pm

    I’ve been trying to find out if an increase in CO2 would lead to crops maturing quicker but all I can find is that they grow faster and get bigger. Anybody got any info?

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