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Press & Bookies Work “Hottest July Evah” Scam Again

July 24, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

 The same thing happens very year. Out comes the sun for a couple of days and the press and bookmakers start their “hottest month evah” scam:

 

 

This was the Mirror on June 30th, before the month had even started:

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Bookmakers have slashed the odds on it being the hottest July on record as UK temperatures are set to soar again.

The odds have been cut from 5/1 to 5/2 on it being a record-breaking July.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-bookmakers-slash-odds-22275679

 

And the Express on July 13th:

 

image

HOT weather could be making a return to the UK this weekend, as some parts of Europe could see temperatures as high as 38C. Here are the latest weather forecasts, maps and charts…..

June was a record month for UK weather, with many regions seeing heatwave conditions….

For the UK, this month could prove to be the hottest July on record according to bookmakers Ladbrokes.

Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes said: "July’s forecast is looking joyful and it looks like the mercury is going up and up for the rest of the month."

Ladbrokes have cut their odds to 13/8 that July 2020 sets a new record as the hottest ever.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1308803/UK-hot-weather-map-heatwave-Met-Office-forecast-Europe-latest

 

Certainly by mid-month there was no chance at all of a record, given that temperatures were already below average:

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

And the idea that there was a 5/2 chance even before the month started is absurd, given that no year has got within 0.6C of the July record set in 2006:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

 

I sometimes wonder whether the newspapers and bookies are in league. The papers get their click-bait and Ladbrokes get punters throwing their money away on no hope bets. (I wonder what odds they were offering that July would not be the hottest!)

 

Of course, bookies are preying on the sad naivety of people who have fallen hook, line and sinker for the global warming scam. They seem genuinely to believe that the world is burning up, that heatwaves are increasing, and all of the other lies thrown at them.

Throw in a forecast of a few sunny days, and the fools and their money are easily parted.

40 Comments
  1. Up2snuff permalink
    July 24, 2020 7:17 pm

    Can’t be. 😉 Not enough CO2 thanks to the UK Lockdown. 😉 😉

    • Broadlands permalink
      July 24, 2020 9:40 pm

      Actually, the covid-19 lockdown had no effect on global CO2 which still made a new record at Mauna Loa. The effect was on the reduction of emissions of exhaust aerosols. Any reduction in CO2 emissions was too small to make a difference overall.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        July 25, 2020 9:40 am

        What exhaust aerosols? Drive a petrol car down Oxford St and it will clean the air.

  2. Joe Public permalink
    July 24, 2020 8:00 pm

    Here’s the evidence that the bullshitters are spouting bollox:

    In GB, gas demand is *broadly* inversely proportional to external temperature. Consequently, a reasonable proxy for lower external temperatures is increased gas demand.

    So how has demand for gas fared so far this month? Fortunately, we have the data – from https://datacommunity.nationalgridgas.com

    The green line is ‘normal’ demand, the black line is physical supply, and the yellow line was ‘forecast’ demand that is pretty accurate and heavily weather-forecast dependent. Note that physical supply will be affected by storage into & withdrawal from storage (Linepack)

    July 2020 has been colder than ‘average’.

    • Paul H permalink
      July 25, 2020 12:23 am

      I’ve been mulling over recently if anyone would come up with ‘Is this the coolest July ever?’ To me, in the North West, it’s been Harry Taters all month. I’ve rarely shed the woolens and on a couple of occasions looked wistfully at the CH thermostat.

      • john, uk permalink
        July 25, 2020 8:51 am

        Can you explain “Harry Taters” Paul H? Is it a N West saying? M missus is from Lancashire and she’s never heard the phrase. Ta.

      • Paul H permalink
        July 25, 2020 11:28 am

        Hello john, uk. HT is a military expression, maybe not used so much nowadays. It referred to being cold, as in It’s HarryTaters, ie flipping freezin’!
        It goes back to the ’50s & 60’s, perhaps further. My Lancashire missuss says ‘it’s cowd’. These Lankyshire girls are quite quaint aren’t they. Anyone else out there who wishes to embellish on this answer, feel free. (I’ve posted in the right box this time, sorry for the duplication)

      • Paul H permalink
        July 25, 2020 11:24 am

        Hello john, uk. HT is a military expression, maybe not used so much nowadays. It referred to being cold, as in It’s HarryTaters, ie flipping freezin’!
        It goes back to the ’50s & 60’s, perhaps further. My Lancashire missuss says ‘it’s cowd’. These Lankyshire girls are quite quaint aren’t they. Anyone else out there who wishes to embellish on this answer, feel free.

      • Eoin Mc permalink
        July 25, 2020 12:07 pm

        Been noticing more of this lately where once April is out of the way its even more of “Uk hotter than Athens…this coming weekend will have hottest day of 2020” etc in newspapers and Sky News. The mirror splash headlines, once the winter gets going underway and after the following Christmas is out of the way, are glaringly absent about the coming weekend will have the ‘coldest day of’ the year.

      • Aaron Halliwell permalink
        July 25, 2020 2:59 pm

        Hear, hear. Mostly wet and cold!

      • C Lynch permalink
        July 26, 2020 8:53 am

        Agree a hundred percent. I live in Ireland and it’s been a terrible July – cool and wet. We’ve had widespread nighttime temperatures below 7°c on several nights and daytime temperatures struggling to get into the high teens and often well below. I can’t remember a day that broke 20°c.

      • Up2snuff permalink
        July 26, 2020 2:17 pm

        Haven’t used the heating this month so far but used it a couple of times in June and I’m in the south east!

        (Harry) Taters is Cockney Rhyming Slang – ‘taters’ as in potatoes – ‘taters in the mould’ ie. cold. ‘Peas in the pot’ is what HorrorBeen and McGrath faithfully promised us in autumn 2018 for UK summers ever after.

        Can we sue?

  3. MrGrimNasty permalink
    July 24, 2020 8:16 pm

    As I mentioned elsewhere, BBC weather man said July 2020 looks like being the first July since 2011 that won’t hit the 30C mark anywhere in the UK.

    • Mad Mike permalink
      July 24, 2020 8:44 pm

      Well, I’ve been in Snowdonia for the last 2 weeks and, apart from about 3-4 reasonable days, its been crap. The temperature has barely got above 19C according to my car which is not that accurate but it will do. Plenty of low cloud and rain. Yippee! So last year confirmed global warming or whatever but this year proves what? Its weather that’s all.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        July 25, 2020 9:42 am

        Clue: Snowdonia. But yes, it’s effin cold for July.

  4. SirClive permalink
    July 24, 2020 8:51 pm

    I’m not sure about the rest of the UK but here in Cheshire this July has to be one of the least warmest in years if not decades!. I am expecting the average to be way,way down the list of July temperatures.

  5. LeedsChris permalink
    July 24, 2020 8:59 pm

    Checking data for my local reporting stations in West Yorkshire (Bingley and Leeds Bradford Airport) the daytime temperatures of July so far has been the coldest for the last twenty years. Combined with that it has been dull (with only 22% of possible sunshine so far this month) and wet. We’ve only had two days of 20C or more (one of those was today) since 26 June..

    • Paul H permalink
      July 26, 2020 1:30 am

      Just think how cold it would be without Global warming!

  6. Broadlands permalink
    July 24, 2020 9:50 pm

    There seems to be more media memory loss when climate change is discussed? July 1921 in the UK and Europe…

     BRITISH ISLES: London, July 10. England is sweltering and suffering the worst drought in a century. Today was the seventy-eighth virtually rainless day. For the third successive day temperatures have exceeded 100. The rainfall for the year is less than one-third normal to date.

     FRANCE: Paris July 12. The Senate yesterday… cancelled the usual July 14 military review in Longchamps owing to the extreme heat.

     GERMANY: Berlin, July 27. The potato crop has been the hardest hit of any in Germany by the prolonged dry weather..

     RUSSIA: July 17. Twenty million persons are on the verge of starvation in drought-stricken sections of Russia, subsisting mainly on moss, grass and the bark of trees, according to the Vossische Zeitung, which quotes information from “reliable Russian sources.” The parched earth, it is asserted, is opening up great crevices, and wells and rivers are drying up. Foliage is asserted to have withered on the trees, and a number of villages are reported on fire.

     SWITZERLAND: Zermatt: July 26. The heat has not greatly abated. On the summit of the Wellenkuppe, above Zermatt, and 12,830 feet high, the temperature at 10 o’clock in the morning has exceeded 100°F., and this despite the summit’s being perpetually snow-clad… never do Alpinists remember such a variety of bright-colored butterflies in the high mountains as this year.

     ITALY: July 30. The principal phenomenon…was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in its length and duration.

     ITALY: Venice, July 30. The principal phenomena which prevailed [this week] was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in length of its duration. For several weeks the heat has increased until the past week the temperature has been up in the high nineties for day after day, and unofficial reports of over 100° have been frequent. The extremely high humidity has practically brought active business to a standstill, and has caused many deaths and heat exhaustions. The principal damage caused by the heat wave is the protracted period of drought which accompanies it. Agriculture is the chief sufferer from the heat and drought and no alleviation appears in sight. Weeks of cloudless scorching days have played havoc with the crops which were in progress when the heat wave began.

  7. July 24, 2020 10:44 pm

    Climate obsessives just keep schtum and wait for a hot day or two somewhere, anywhere. Met Office forecaster today was reduced to telling us we had a hot day or two last year 🤣

    • July 25, 2020 9:33 am

      Last day of July could reach 26-27C in the forecast but nothing else worth a mention.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        July 25, 2020 2:47 pm

        Still nudging up, could squeeze a Heathrow 30C on the last day of July.

      • Joe Public permalink
        July 25, 2020 11:05 pm

        @ MrGrimNasty

        “Still nudging up, could squeeze a Heathrow 30C on the last day of July.”

        Especially as this corona-virus mullarky has considerably reduced flight numbers!

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        July 26, 2020 9:34 pm

        Assuming Heathrow isn’t ice bound through lack of aircraft movements, it’s up to 31C now for the 31st now!

  8. Mack permalink
    July 24, 2020 10:44 pm

    Despite all the hype Paul, I nipped into my local bookies at the end of May and asked for the odds that June/July/August average temps in the U.K. would not exceed the official Met Office forecast or produce a temperature record. The young girl behind the counter wouldn’t take my bet telling me that, off the record, the Met Office’s forecasts were so unreliable that her company couldn’t calculate short term odds based on their calculations. If the bookies think the current temperature record is crap, you know it is! After all, the bookies have something to lose, unlike the civil servants who promote the doomsday scenarios.

  9. Broadlands permalink
    July 25, 2020 12:40 am

    Mack…”After all, the bookies have something to lose, unlike the civil servants who promote the doomsday scenarios.” Yes…but not just your average civil servant, but those who receive massive funding to design and adjust climate models that promote those existential climate emergencies. It is their dismal forecasts that climate activists and most politicians rely on.

  10. July 25, 2020 1:32 am

    If there is no claim of an attribution to AGW it’s just a weather report and not AGW hype.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      July 25, 2020 2:53 pm

      It’s a point you keep making, and whilst inherently true, as you aren’t in the UK (I assume) – you won’t understand the context. It is part of the relentless media campaign of constant warming propaganda/messaging reinforcement in the UK.

      • July 25, 2020 3:19 pm

        Thank you for that succinct explanation. I will heed your advice and stay out of those discussions.

  11. StephenP permalink
    July 25, 2020 8:26 am

    The BBC have just announced a series of 15 minute programmes starting next Monday at 13.45 called ‘How they made us doubt everything;
    .
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000l7q1/episodes/guide

    Looking at the schedules it looks as if they are conflating smoking & cancer with global warming.
    It gives the appearance of a run-up to their output for the next COP.
    It will be interesting to see what they have top say.

    • Ariane permalink
      July 25, 2020 11:12 am

      One could wonder how much of Peter Pomerantsev’s career has been built on the propagation of conspiracy theories.

  12. Nordisch geo-climber permalink
    July 25, 2020 10:09 am

    Can confirm UK Lake District has already had a relatively cold July. Fact! From a perennial weather-watcher. Anyone who does not realise that is living in a fantasy world.

  13. July 25, 2020 11:56 am

    I live as far north on the UK mainland as you can get without falling off and am still waiting to get my T shirts out of the wardrobe. First summer that’s happened. Because I’m near the coast it’s usually warmer than inland. There are some hardy native souls who have managed sleeveless but I’m sitting with a rug on my knees as usual.

  14. Gamecock permalink
    July 25, 2020 2:16 pm

    I betcha bookmakers’ forecasts are more accurate than climate scientists.

  15. Athelstan. permalink
    July 25, 2020 4:14 pm

    I simply refuse to acknowledge some, indeed any Temperature ave’s /anomalies since 1981, the major data sets have been grossly fiddled and even then – there is and as Mr Homewood so professionally points out: FA to see!

    Weather in the UK varies and sometimes but selfdom, it gets quite hot, usually it is pleasant, sunny, warmish and wettish, coolish at times too – but nothing of real note. All alarmunists and varied eeits do note; it’s our position see at +52º N we are on the ‘edge’ Hadly cells and coriolis where tropical winds and polar air masses meet – THAT MEAN’S VARIATION AND MODEST WARM AND COLD.

    The other thing, very luckily the jet stream and NA drift – splendid stuff!

    Yes indeed, any there any snowflake gamblers who need climate advice, pleased to help you save your money at the bookies, global cooling – who’d not bet on it?

  16. Vernon E permalink
    July 25, 2020 5:21 pm

    I am a dog-owner in Oxfordshire and this is the most miserable July I can remember. Fortunately we have a garden and on the occasional decent days we have enjoyed it.
    As I posted earlier compared with the glorious July days on the sea front at Rhyl in the 1950s featured in a clip in the TV film Ruth Ellis its crap.

  17. Ben Vorlich permalink
    July 25, 2020 6:03 pm

    Here in Limousin it’s been dry but not particularly warm for the last three months, before that it was wet and not particularly warm.

  18. July 25, 2020 6:35 pm

    Since what records began? We are facing the coldest warm maximum of the cyclic range of 2 deg plus and minus variation every 1,000 years this interglacial, and the coldest interglacial of the last 5, etc. Utter bollocks on the clear facts of natural cycles, which are proceeding as they have for 10,000 years with no detectable influence from humans. But only on the facts. Plucking 150 years, or a fortire 50, out of a 1,000 year cycle and claiming this shows warming humans caused when its perfectly normal cyclic variability as s. observed over 10,000 years of such cycles is people being stupid, or deceitful, for fame and/or a fast buck, etc.

    Presentational evidence on this based on GISP2:
    Unnarrated: https://www.dropbox.com/s/5y6xaju4tuk6eo9/GISP2%20REality%20%284%29.pptx?dl=0
    Narrated:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/5y6xaju4tuk6eo9/GISP2%20REality%20%284%29.pptx?dl=0

    Images of key data analysis slides:

  19. 2hmp permalink
    July 26, 2020 9:05 am

    “Fools and their money are soon parted” Does that include Boris and money to support renewables ?

    • Ariane permalink
      July 26, 2020 11:23 am

      If the current Leaver Conservative government could repeal Remainer Theresa May and her government’s Zero Carbon by 2050 legislation, then Boris might get away with spending less on renewables. Depends on contracts etc.about which I know little. Some letters to MPs could help.

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