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Atlantic Hurricane Season Update

September 18, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 2020 Atlantic hurricane season summary map.png

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Tracks 2020

 

  

There has been a load of nonsense written about how busy this year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been, with Greek letters having to be used if we run out of normal ones.

In reality, the vast majority have been weak Tropical Storms, spinning around  aimlessly in the middle of the ocean. Very few of these would even have been spotted in the pre-satellite era.

To date, there have just been eight Atlantic hurricanes, including two major ones, Laura and Teddy. While the season has not quite ended yet, it seems unlikely that the total number will be unusually high, while the number of major hurricanes looks like being relatively low.

image

image

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#tcs-to-1930

 

 

While the Accumulated Cyclone Energy is running 28% above average in the Atlantic, globally it is well below, at 64%.

Global hurricane numbers are also lower this year, as are the number of major hurricanes. There is no evidence of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity, despite the BBC’s attempts to mislead otherwise.

 image

 global_major_freq

http://climatlas.com/tropical/

13 Comments
  1. September 18, 2020 7:53 pm

    “Very few of these would even have been spotted in the pre-satellite era.”

    As Chris Landsea prepped us yrs ago *as you very well know.)

    • ThinkingScientist permalink
      September 18, 2020 8:39 pm

      Great image, thanks garyh845

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      September 19, 2020 8:14 am

      More testing, more false positives….

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      September 19, 2020 1:11 pm

      In WW2 there was “The Gap” or “The Black Pit” where land based aircraft couldn’t reach to patrol and get home again. This was only closed in 1943. Even then I suppose tracking hurricanes wasn’t a high priority

      • Gamecock permalink
        September 19, 2020 7:35 pm

        This was on the convoy routes in the North Atantic, from Halifax/St. Johns to England. Way north of hurricane waters.

  2. Broadlands permalink
    September 18, 2020 9:16 pm

    “There has been a load of nonsense written about how busy this year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been, with Greek letters having to be used if we run out of normal ones. In reality, the vast majority have been weak Tropical Storms, spinning around aimlessly in the middle of the ocean. Very few of these would even have been spotted in the pre-satellite era.”

    But of course.The more named weather, the scarier. Just more evidence that we must all act quickly to put a stop to all this climate change mayhem. Lower emissions ASAP and that will do the trick? Yes, a load of nonsense.

  3. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    September 18, 2020 10:39 pm

    Peak hurricane season in the N. Atlantic** was September 10. Link has a nice graph.
    INFO: https://www.noaa.gov/stories/peak-of-hurricane-season-why-now

    ** _ _ _ _ for the S. Atlantic, see:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Catarina

  4. September 19, 2020 1:32 am

    The bigger issue here is that the north atlantic tropical cyclone basin, where tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, is just one of six cyclone basins and not a particularly important one.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/14/hurricane-obsession/

  5. Gene Farr permalink
    September 19, 2020 4:36 am

    >

  6. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 19, 2020 6:53 pm

    Our Met Office has named storms in order to be able to use the word ‘storm’ more often- as in “… both Storm Clara and Storm Dennis reached da da da…. “ Instead of a mild depression centred over the Irish Sea or us yotties remarking ‘another dartboard coming up Channel’. All to garner more taxpayer funding by scaring us.

  7. Philip Mulholland permalink
    September 22, 2020 12:46 am

    To include short lived mid-ocean storms such as Tropical Storm Vicky is bad enough (TS Vicky is the one to the east of Hurricane Teddy), but when cold cored cyclones forming off the NE coast such as Kyle get included as “Tropical Storms” then this is very clear evidence of padding the naming system.
    .

    • Philip Mulholland permalink
      September 23, 2020 9:06 am

      The issue here is not – “Oh it formed in the tropics and therefore is a tropical storm” that is just geography. The issue is meteorological, tropical storms form on the equator-ward side of the high-pressure cells of the Horse Latitudes. These storms transport angular momentum pole-ward and so can be very dangerous. Their mechanism of formation involves a warm core and this also is crucial.

      If a storm forms on the pole-ward side of a Horse Latitude anticyclone and involves a cold air mass in its vortex core, then this is evidence not of the tropics becoming warmer and expanding away from the equator. Rather it is evidence of colder air in the Ferrel cell advecting south into the tropics – a meridional circulation process.
      Climate change? “Yes Jim, but not as we know it.”

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