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Canada Wildfires At Lowest Level For Years

September 27, 2020

By Paul Homewood


h/t Ben Vorlich


According to the Met Office, global warming is leading to record breaking fires in North America.

Canada, of course, is a large part of North America, so surely fires should be getting worse there too.

In fact wildfires this year are running at just 8% of the 10-year average:





All provinces are well below average:



This suggests that meteorological conditions have been responsible for both the glut of fires in the US west and the dearth in Canada.

More significant though is the long term trend in Canada:


1994, 1995 and 1998 recorded the biggest wildfire acreages. But over the full period, there is no obvious trend at all.

Which all rather makes of a nonsense of the Met Office’s claim that hot dry weather conditions promoting wildfires are becoming more severe and widespread due to climate change.

  1. Keith Harrison permalink
    September 27, 2020 6:11 pm

    If climate change causes wildfires, what causes their decline in number and area burned?

    Climate change?

  2. Francis permalink
    September 27, 2020 7:04 pm

    Comment from a fellow-meteorologist who provides weather forecasts for the NWT (Northwest Territories) forestry people during fire season: “In the NWT, the last 4 of 5 years have been far below average for both number and area burned. This year was one of the lowest.”

  3. bluecat57 permalink
    September 27, 2020 7:06 pm

    That’s because they don’t have BLM and Antigua setting them. There is a wildfire map that shows they stop at the border.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 28, 2020 7:52 am

      Antigua! Presumably the neofascists of Antifa?

      • bluecat57 permalink
        September 28, 2020 1:01 pm

        Damn autocorrect. Funny but annoying.

  4. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 27, 2020 7:17 pm

    Elsewhere I’ve seen mentioned that the wildfires have been strangely targeting state more than private controlled land. Fickle beast, this revenging climate god.

    And yet another ‘green lung’ has been excised from London, no doubt the alarmists will be complaining about more record city heat and pollution shortly………

    • CheshireRed permalink
      September 27, 2020 9:13 pm

      That’s a rather interesting snippet. Would be most illuminating if true.
      May well be worth further investigation by our host?

    • September 28, 2020 2:57 pm

      St James Park was a 230 year old cemetery with 60,000 graves. The cometary was featured on the BBC program The Big Dig

  5. Colin permalink
    September 27, 2020 7:47 pm

    Given that people have been restricted to travel etc, it might well be that the fires set by humans has been limited this year. Which, if true, is a horrifying thought that policy will be set based on human error!

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      September 27, 2020 9:16 pm

      I’m not really following your train of thought there?

      Anyway, certainly in the UK a lot MORE people than normal have gone into the countryside whilst bored not working, and trying to exercise etc. Wild-swimming, camping/fires, and BBQs have been all the rage. Caused quite a spate of fires.

      Dozens and dozens of reports all year.

      Google ‘uk 2020 disposable BBQ fire’ !

      • dearieme permalink
        September 28, 2020 9:20 pm

        The Beeb calls it a “forest fire”. The local rag is more accurate: “a huge blaze which ravaged heath and gorse at Puddletown Forest”. Fires on heaths are commonplace and bear no resemblance to an American forest fire. Our nearest approximation would be if someone set a conifer planation alight.

    • MJB permalink
      September 29, 2020 12:27 pm

      I live in Northern Ontario, roughly 8 hours north of Toronto. All summer we have had an influx of people “from the south”. Provincial parks have been booked solid months in advance as people who normally travel to the US have filled Canadian parks and resorts. Even on the lake superior coastal trail, normally a quiet back country experience, campsites were over-run with buffoons leaving garbage and blasting portable speakers – not your usual fare. If anything this increase in people, and particularly inconsiderate people, would have created more fires. Meteorologically speaking we had a wet summer, which has been a weak trend over the last ~15 years (i.e. generally wetter but quite variable year to year).

  6. MaxD permalink
    September 27, 2020 8:06 pm

    I do the wild land fire weather forecasting for the Northwest Territories in Canada. This year (2020) has been one of the quietest on record in terms of both number of fires and area burned.

  7. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 28, 2020 7:49 am

    Canada has a leader acceptable to the Greens/neofascists the US does not, so oddly, in an election year, there’s lots of fires in the US.

  8. September 28, 2020 9:56 am

    Hi Paul
    Have you seen this WMO State of the Climate report?

    • September 28, 2020 11:05 pm

      Hi chaamjamal

      from your blog link –
      “The UN chief also addressed the ongoing spread of COVID-19, in response to a question on its likely effect on the climate, given the resulting drop in economic activity and, consequently, emissions. Mr. Guterres firmly responded that “both require a determined response. Both must be defeated”. Although emissions have been reduced, Mr. Guterres noted that “we will not fight climate change with a virus“. In addition, he underlined the importance of not allowing the fight against the virus to distract from the need to defeat climate change, inequality and the many other problems the world is facing. Whilst the disease is expected to be temporary, climate change, added the Secretary-General, has been a phenomenon for many years, and and will “remain with us for decades and require constant action”

      so now we “need to defeat climate change” !!!

      WTF – you have to wonder if UN chief Mr Guterres has a clue or just spouts rubbish soundbites all the time.

      • September 29, 2020 12:48 am

        should add your response to all this BS are worth a read 🙂

      • September 29, 2020 12:53 am

        Great comment. Thanks. These guys are bureaucrats. Oh so self important taxpayer supported morons who couldn’t get a real job in the real world.

  9. September 28, 2020 10:17 am

    Which all rather makes of a nonsense of the Met Office’s claim

    We should all be well used to seeing ‘Met Office’ and ‘nonsense’ in the same phrase in the climate propaganda game.

  10. Tim Spence permalink
    September 28, 2020 12:43 pm

    I thought that climate didn’t understand borders?

  11. Fred from Canuckistan permalink
    September 28, 2020 2:00 pm

    Also this . . .

    • September 28, 2020 5:09 pm

      Clearly shows that large fires are episodic and therefore have no relevance to trends. However, this will not stop the AGW fearmongers.

    • September 29, 2020 1:34 am

      Canuckistan? Lol.

  12. Gamecock permalink
    September 28, 2020 10:53 pm

    Boreal forests are adapted to fire.

    ‘Canada Wildfires At Lowest Level For Years’

    Do not assume this is good.

    • M E permalink
      September 28, 2020 11:44 pm

      Quite right! I was taught this at Edinburgh University way back in the dark ages when climate studies for prehistorians were of wild changes in climate zones as we came out of the Glacial and Post Glacial eras . I’m sure these have been accounted for by the global warming people who inhabit the newsrooms of the world.

  13. September 30, 2020 2:21 am

    What I like about this blog is its data orientation. Thank you sir and keep up the good work.

  14. patk morrison permalink
    October 1, 2020 4:16 pm

    Perhaps some information about forest management comparison between countrys would help

  15. October 1, 2020 6:42 pm

    You completely ignored the long-term increase in precipitation in Canada.

    • Den Blacksmith permalink
      October 2, 2020 1:30 am

      5 years ago and for the preceeding 10 years, when the water level in the great lakes was very low, it was climate change. The levels are back up as high as I’ve seen them since 1975 when I was a kid. All the climate alarmists shut up. Rainfall in my area was lower than normal for almost 10 years and the climate alarmists chirped off. For the past 5 years it’s been above normal. The forests were burning due to climate change. Remove idiots from the bush, and they’re 5% of the 10 year average. I’m sure the climate alarmists will abandon this one too now that they’ve been proved wrong. Everything goes in cycles and there are cycles within cycles. That’s just the way it is. Ok…time to pile on the next bunch of garbage science.

    • Dennis Greer permalink
      October 2, 2020 5:35 am

      It didn’t rain THAT much this year.

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