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Snow Could Become A Thing Of The Past–Now Where Did I Hear That Before?

December 7, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

The Met Office get hundreds of millions from the taxpayer, and what do we get in return? Garbage like this!

 image

Snowy winters could become a thing of the past as climate change affects the UK, Met Office analysis suggests.

It is one of a series of projections about how UK’s climate could change, shared with BBC Panorama.

It suggests by the 2040s most of southern England could no longer see sub-zero days. By the 2060s only high ground and northern Scotland are still likely to experience such cold days.

The projections are based on global emissions accelerating.

It could mean the end of sledging, snowmen and snowball fights, says Dr Lizzie Kendon, a senior Met Office scientist who worked on the climate projections.

"We’re saying by the end of the century much of the lying snow will have disappeared entirely except over the highest ground," she told Panorama.

If the world reduces emissions significantly the changes will be less dramatic, the Met Office says.

The average coldest day in the UK over the past three decades was -4.3 Celsius.

If emissions continue to accelerate, leading to a global temperature rise of 4C, then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter.

Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C, the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55179603 

 

So if global temperatures rise by 4C, the UK’s will too! No s**t Sherlock.

Except of course they won’t.

Temperatures in England have risen by less than a degree in the last fifty years, and they actually stopped rising two decades ago:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif

Quite simply there is no evidence that they will start increasing again, never mind by 4C or even 2C.

Summer temperatures still refuse to go above those of 1976 or 1995:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

 

And daytime temperatures in winter have also plateaued:

 

We are of course still waiting for that Mediterranean climate we were promised fifteen years ago:

image

 

 

The absurd Lizzie Kendon also raises the spectre of wetter winters and drier summers. But again, the actual data shows she is talking complete and utter rot:

 

 

Quite disgracefully, the BBC includes a video regarding the floods in South Yorkshire last year, which had nothing whatsoever to do with global warming:

 

image

 

 

Shame on both the BBC and Met Office for peddling this rubbish.

48 Comments
  1. fretslider permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:11 pm

    Not every summer will be hotter than the last, the Met Office says, but the long-term trend is steadily upwards, particularly if emissions remain unabated.

    That high-emissions scenario shows peak summer temperatures could rise by between 3.7 C and 6.8 C by the 2070s, compared with the period 1981 to 2000.

    If the world succeeds in reducing emissions, these temperature rises will be considerably smaller.

    The level of detail in the models mean it is possible to see how the climate might change in neighbourhoods across the country.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55179603

    level of detail in the models

    They’ve still got that hubris at the Met Office.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      December 7, 2020 9:30 pm

      SUrprised they have gone with that gambit. It provides lots of falsifiable points. Of course, it will take 20 years fr an answer. Will we still have the BBC then?

  2. subseaeng permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:13 pm

    I totally agree with you Paul, but just think of the upside to this, all those Air Source Heat Pumps won’t have to work so hard with correspondingly less power used. Oh, and Santa is real as well!

  3. Malcolm Johnson permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:18 pm

    HOW DO WE FIGHT THIS BRAINWASHING, INDOCTRINATION, or whatever you want to call it?

    The lunatics really have taken over the asylum !

  4. December 7, 2020 4:20 pm

    I remember this from first time round 20 years ago, it like deja vu? This is the same Met Office who had their lucrative contract with the BBC not renewed because their forecasts were wrong because they factored in imaginary global warming in their computer programming. The irony of this is there for all to see.
    Of course this story started with remarks by David Viner from the Climate Research Department whose infamous “Children will see snow as a rare and exciting event” They didn’t , haven’t and wont! It’s as fictitious now as it was 20 years about!

  5. ThinkingScientist permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:23 pm

    I think the situation with the BBC and the Met Office is actually very worrying – they have effectively joined forces. They are trailing the Met Office “projections” for the BBC program tonight – but the Met Office do not appear to have actually published the latest projections on their own website. The last full report appears to be 2018.

    So the BBC decided 2007 to stop all sceptical view being broadcast, in direct contradiction of its Charter. The Met Office continue to make unsupported projections and without any challenge or oversight.

    We now have the Met Office making unsupported (and untestable) projections up to 80 years in the future with the BBC having a monopoly on publicising this nonsense. So the Met Office is now able to manufacture whatever future nonsense it wants and has effectively its TV and Radio network on which to broadcast it.

    A proper news agency would be asking the Met Office for (a) its past track record in making 5, 10 , 15 year predictions and (b) what are its specific and measurable predictions for the next 5, 10 and 15 years. Not coloured in charts but actual tabulated numerical data.

    Anyone noticed how its becoming more and more difficult to get at raw data, and especially going back to the start of records, from the Met Office? Everything is presented as lovely charts and “infographics” but hard numbers are getting difficult to find. In other words, the Met Office is getting canny about not leaving about actual numbers which they can be held to account on.

    All of this smells a bit like the BBC News turning up at Cliff Richard’s house with the Police raid. Far too cozy. What happened to independent investigation? Why do Green issues get a free pass?

    The public is starting to wake up, partly because the sheer lunacy of the path on which Government and the BBC have already embarked on can’t be kept hidden for much longer. I think the Poll Tax backlash on Tory politicians is going to look pretty mild by comparison with what’s coming – as I have already warned our own Conservative MP Desmond Swayne.

    • Tim Leeney permalink
      December 7, 2020 5:30 pm

      I warned ours, Charles Hendry, 20 years ago.

    • mjr permalink
      December 7, 2020 6:08 pm

      but this the BBC. no investigation of lockdown/covid – they act as government propaganda outlet and promulgate scare stories and mistruths (and especially via the 140 BBC reporters embedded with local newspapers). Also following the woke agenda re BLM, gender etc .
      Question. What have the BBC and journalism got in common
      Answer . Absolutely nothing

  6. Douglas Brodie permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:23 pm

    “Children Just Won’t Know What An Honest Scientist Is”, Tony Heller, see https://realclimatescience.com/2018/02/children-just-wont-know-what-an-honest-scientist-is/

  7. Lez permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:31 pm

    The same rubbish was repeated in the Telegraph today. I thought for a moment I was reading the Grauniad.
    Looking at the on line comments, the DT should be in no doubt that its readers are not nearly as gullible as it’s editorial staff.

  8. Tom Livingston permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:32 pm

    Also pushed out as “news” on the one o’clock lunchtime bulletin today and spoken of as fact. This was followed by an advert for “Britains Wild Weather”‘ with pictures of floods and wildfires for our further delectation. I’ve lived here for 89 years and I haven’t noticed a lot of change myself, must be missing something…

  9. Penda100 permalink
    December 7, 2020 4:33 pm

    Why does the BBC think that slightly warmer winters would be a bad thing? I’m sure that those who lived through the really long, cold and snowy winters of the past , such as 1963, would be only too happy not to see another one. But whether or not one comes it has got nothing to do with CO2 emissions.

  10. Martin Burlin permalink
    December 7, 2020 5:02 pm

    On his show today Jeremy Vine asked, How fearful are you that you will no longer be able to play in the snow, with your children & grand children?

    He then introduced a BBC correspondent, who rammed home the usual “doom laden facts.” He also announced that, “Together,with the Met Office, the BBC has developed an App, that allows you to log onto your post code & see how it will be effected by climate change in fifty years time.

    He also pushed tonight’s Panorama Show on how climate change is creating massive weather fluctuations. He actually begged people to watch this eye opening & frightening program.

    • December 7, 2020 5:25 pm

      Personally cold and hypothermia do not turn me on. I would not lose one moment’s sleep if you told me there would be no more snow. Do these zealots not know cold kills? Do they not know snow and ice on roads KILL and maim? Do these climatefascists EVER consider what they say before they say it?

      Also as I have written below the shear cold blooded nastiness of these “ever so caring” people is manifest. They do not care about upsetting children because they do not care who gets hurt on the journey they are bullying us along on to their marxist Nirnava. Indeed I am sure they see such opportunities to upset children as being “useful mental scars” and weapons for the future…..

      This is the same nastiness as the deluded idiot indoctrinator masquerading as a teacher of the Maid of Stockholm making her cry with stories of starving polar bears. These are not nice people!

      • December 7, 2020 5:32 pm

        Vine did point out that cold weather kills. The correspondent agreed but warned that the extreme summer heat waves were also killers!

      • NeilC permalink
        December 8, 2020 1:53 pm

        I would like to know where all these deaths caused by extreme heat are coming from. It is nothing but a huge lie.

        Some analysis of deaths in the UK for the last 10 years include in this link;

        https://www.weather-research.com/articles/sars-cov-2-virus-in-perspective

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      December 8, 2020 9:22 am

      Anybody who think that any model of a complex, non-linear semi-chaotic system like climate can be accurately predicted on a postcode sized scale out for ten minutes, let alone 10 years, is delusional.

  11. December 7, 2020 5:06 pm

    All they have in their sorry shop window, all they have EVER had has been model based. They shy away from real data at every opportunity for one very good reason because you can fix the input of “moggles” to give the output you want.

    The other shocking aspect to this which shows the total contempt both the political activists in the MetOffice and the “impartial” BBC have for the general public when they recycle their garbage claims. Is that really all they have after 40 years of scaremongering? Do they think no one notices? Upsetting children today telling them there COULD be no more snow in 40 years, that Polar Bears COULD drown that Pacific naturally sinking atols COULD submerge and when none of it comes to pass where are the recriminations? Both the BBC and the Met office MUST be held accountable for their claims which are opinion pieces.

    The degree of wilful dishonesty on show here exhibited by these two partners in crime needs to be called out and people made to account for this dishonesty. Both the BBC and the Met office are tainted, clearly so and sadly it needs to be made public that neither can be trusted with the result that public funding for both needs to be suspended immediately pending an independent enquiry.

    I counted the word “could” used 8 times in this propaganda fluff piece. They simply DO NOT KNOW and based on their previous WRONG predictions a normal person would expect they would be more cautious but in the world of deceit that we now inhabit there is no penalty or consequence in store for those who use their positions of authority for political purposes and lie without compunction.

    EVERY unnecessary usage of models when real data is available MUST carry a statement of caution.

    Every time I think I have seen it all the weasels surprise me again! The priests and profiteers of doom!

    • mjr permalink
      December 7, 2020 6:11 pm

      now, where have we had problems with models elsewhere this year? Ah yes, Ferguson and 500000 covid deaths. and the BBC just lap it up

  12. jack broughton permalink
    December 7, 2020 6:09 pm

    This is part of the preparing of the plebs for harder-times …. to save the planet of course.
    The economic fall-out from Covid is also being prepared……. As Winnie the Pooh said “Beware, beware, be VERY, VERY WARE”.

  13. dennisambler permalink
    December 7, 2020 6:11 pm

    This is all part of the constant re-inforcement of the warming paradigm, part of the Global Reset, the UN Sustainable Development Goals, etc. Facts have never been important, it doesn’t matter how many times the claims are refuted, they just keep repeating the same mantras.

    The Met Office is now part of the BEIS and has to provide pseudo-scientific backing for the Boris Greenery, which he will spout at this week’s “Global Climate Summit”, as a taster for next year’s COP 26 in Glasgow, https://ukcop26.org/

    This is dated 24 September 2020:
    “UN chief and UK premier announce December climate summit”
    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/09/1073392

    “With the COVID-19 pandemic having disrupted plans to hold the annual international UN climate meeting – known as the COP – this year, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom have announced that they will instead co-host a “landmark global event” on 12 December, the fifth anniversary of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

    The December event will be held amid signs that the world is off-track to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and that a carbon-free economy is long overdue.

    “The climate emergency is fully upon us, and we have no time to waste, Mr. Guterres said in a statement. “The answer to our existential crisis is swift, decisive, scaled up action and solidarity among nations”.

    The aim of the event is to rally momentum and call for much greater climate action and ambition. National governments will be invited to present more ambitious and high-quality climate plans, as well as COVID recovery plans, new finance commitments and measures to limit global warming to 1.5C.”

    Note how the 2 deg C has morphed into 1.5C. Two degrees was first mentioned by economist William Nordhaus in 1975:

    CAN WE CONTROL CARBON DIOXIDE? William D. Nordhaus June 1975 http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/365/1/WP-75-063.pdf

    In 1990, the UN AGGG (United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases), was asking for no more than a 1 degree rise in global temperature. That in turn traces back to the Villach Conference of 1986, and the subsequent Bellagio Conference in 1987, when some of the main proponents of the AGW meme were present, and have been driving it ever since. That then changed upwards to 1.5 degrees and again into 2 degrees. After Paris, 1.5 degrees is the new mantra for the activists.

  14. Tym Fern permalink
    December 7, 2020 6:22 pm

    Could, could, could, could, could, could, could….

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      December 7, 2020 7:32 pm

      …not (perhaps?)

  15. Mr T permalink
    December 7, 2020 6:52 pm

    The first graph, the Mean Central England Temperature Annual anomalies 1659 to
    6 Dec 2020 looks remarkably like a hockey stick to me.

    • December 7, 2020 8:02 pm

      It would be a rather bent one if it went back to the Middle Ages!!

    • A C Osborn permalink
      December 8, 2020 10:56 am

      Do you know what a Little Ice Age is?

    • NeilC permalink
      December 8, 2020 1:59 pm

      I really dislike the use of anomalies. You get a far better idea of reality if you plot the real numbers. The CET has risen 1.08C in the last 360 years, coming out of the Little Ice Age. That is 0.03C per decade wow!

      https://www.weather-research.com/weather-and-climate

  16. Stonyground permalink
    December 7, 2020 7:36 pm

    When I was growing up in the 1960s and 70s snow fall was a rare and exciting event. It has certainly become rarer still over the past 25 years or so, 2010 being an exception, but so what? The weather goes in cycles and there isn’t any reason to think that winters will just carry on getting milder, we just have to wait and see. Judging by their track record, the most likely thing is probably the opposite to whatever the doomsday modelers have predicted.

    Oh the weather outside is frightful,
    But the fire is so delightful,
    And since we’ve no place to go…

  17. John Dawson permalink
    December 7, 2020 7:49 pm

    I am just watching the Panorama programme and screaming at they way it is being framed – right now a discussion of overheating flats in Hayes is followed by “if emissions keep increasing we could see Hayes go from highs of 32C now to 40C by 2070”, shock, horror etc.

    Ifs and coulds everywhere…….infographics of temperature that go from pale red to deep red…. where is the balance in this diatribe?

    • G.D.P. permalink
      December 8, 2020 5:24 pm

      take no notice everyone knows they can’t tell you next weeks weather although 60 years time

  18. December 7, 2020 7:59 pm

    I am buying a thick coat.

  19. Ben Vorlich permalink
    December 7, 2020 8:05 pm

    He who pays the piper calls the tune. The MO is taxpayer funded, the government is in charge of the purse strings. CV19 has shown that people can be scared into doing things that 2 years ago might have seemed impossible. The population has to be scared into accepting energy rationing to save th planet, as opposed to saving the NHS.

  20. December 7, 2020 8:16 pm

    I’ve just put another log on the fire to combat this global warming thingy.

  21. Gary Kerkin permalink
    December 7, 2020 8:24 pm

    Anyone care to wager that children in 2021 will have seen nothing but snow and ice?

  22. Mack permalink
    December 7, 2020 9:04 pm

    I think now’s the time to bulk buy snow shovels, skis, sleds, de-icer etc etc. There will be a killing to be made soon enough. We’re in a La Niña, a solar minimum and the AMO will be lurching negative soon and, contrary to the eternal wisdom and ouija forecasts of the seers at the Beeb and the MO, Northern Hemisphere snow/ice extent is higher now than in those balmy days of the mid 1980s when co2 was only 350ppm. Interesting times lie ahead.

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      December 7, 2020 10:41 pm

      Yep, I’m buying new skis.

  23. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    December 7, 2020 9:34 pm

    Your great Island is going to be cut loose from the underlying rocks and floated to about 36° North Latitude, somewhat west of the Strait of Gibraltar. The slowness of this will be unnoticed because of annual deaths and replacement. Even a 2020 baby will be 80 years old and Historic Britain will be thought of like Atlantis.
    How else can one change the climate of a place near the northeast of the Great Atlantic Ocean?

  24. It doesn't add up... permalink
    December 7, 2020 9:51 pm

    I note the BBC has difficulty distinguishing between data and model projections. It elides the one into the other. So projections become the data. We know the answer before taking any measurements…

  25. roger permalink
    December 7, 2020 10:37 pm

    planned nepotism?
    This time the MO will not fall into the trap of being in post as the ifs mays and mights reach prediction date unfulfilled.
    Not only the present incumbents will be long ago retired, but their successors and their successors children will be retired by 2100.
    Generations yet to be born will be called to account for the sins of their grandfathers!

  26. It doesn't add up... permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:02 am

    Josh gives it a joshing by cartoon:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cartoonsbyjosh/status/1335874014204612608

  27. Angusmac permalink
    December 8, 2020 5:53 am

    Paul, I think that you posted this in 2013. David Viner of the CRU at the University of East Anglia, said in March 2000 that,

    “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event”.

    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

    It seems that David Viner was wrong then and that the Met Office are wrong now.

  28. StephenP permalink
    December 8, 2020 8:15 am

    I am afraid that we will see a surge of this kind of scaremongering right up to COP26 next September.
    Anyone who saw the Winterwatch programme recently about the 1962 – 1963 winter would soon lose their enthusiasm for snow, however exciting it might be, especially those who have to work in such conditions. (Interesting times!)
    I also wonder how well we would cope with similar weather, especially if we have gone down the EV route.
    As I understand it lithium batteries do not work too well in sub zero temperatures.
    In December 1981 there was a snowstorm which brought down power lines. We were lucky to get electricity back within 24 hours as we were on the same circuit as the local hospital, but neighbouring villages were not reconnected for a week.

    • dennisambler permalink
      December 8, 2020 2:03 pm

      The Met Office still uses 61-90 as a the base line for its temperature anomalies. Guaranteed warming.

  29. Phoenix44 permalink
    December 8, 2020 9:13 am

    So if it gets warmer it will be warmer? If only I was clever enough to do climate science.

  30. Gerry, England permalink
    December 8, 2020 10:24 am

    Let me guess – this was based on RCP8.5. It has already been shown that this scenario is utterly ridiculous, and in fact even the lowest scenario is above observed reality, especially in the latest CIMP6 models they will be using for the next IPCC report. I expect the next report to be even more detached from reality in response to the last being used to shoot down the likes of XR. If so, it might tip a few more of the moderates to jump the IPCC ship if they have any integrity. The majority of competent and pre-eminent scientists left years ago when they found the published report had been changed from what they had said.

  31. Ian Simpson permalink
    December 8, 2020 6:44 pm

    I remember the doom laden reports of no snow in the Alps/Dolomites, within a lifetime or so, from the mid 1980’s onwards. Very conscious that climatic influences never static, but there has always been variation in snowfall throughout Europe in our experience. Galtur and elsewhere in the western Alps in 1999 saw catastrophic snowfall and the wooden crosses all over these resorts are testament to the loss of life due to massive avalanches. This week is scarily reminiscent of that time, and so early in the “season”

  32. JCalvertN(UK) permalink
    December 9, 2020 5:50 pm

    I’m looking forward to snowy winter now.
    Such pronouncements tend to work like the Gore Effect

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