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Atlantic Hurricanes Fact Check

February 7, 2021

By Paul Homewood

I mentioned ICECAP’s new Climate Claim Fact Checks yesterday. It is worth looking at the section on hurricanes in greater detail:

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http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate

 

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9 Comments
  1. February 7, 2021 11:30 am

    The ‘lulls’ don’t matter, obviously. Sound the alarm! 🙄

    • February 7, 2021 7:37 pm

      Yes, as McKitrick pointed out: If you’re going to blame CO2 for an active hurricane season, you have to give CO2 credit for the 11-year hiatus.

  2. Patsy Lacey permalink
    February 7, 2021 12:06 pm

    completely off topic sorry but look at fluff piece from Anne-Marie Trevelyn (Energy Minister) in Sunday Telegraph entitled “The switch away from oil and gas tops my to-do list” . The last line is a shocker
    “IF IN GOVERNMENT POLICY WE ARE CREATING AN UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE I WANT TO KNOW ABOUT IT AND TO KNOW ABOUT IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

    • Devoncamel permalink
      February 7, 2021 12:29 pm

      I think we can help her with this.

  3. Gamecock permalink
    February 7, 2021 1:06 pm

    I cringe at the use of major hurricanes as a measure of anything. They are big; they get noticed. They are also extremely rare. Freaks, not indicators.

    The U.S. Gulf/Atlantic coast line is 3,500 miles. The landfall of a hurricane at any one place is unusual, on average, years apart. When it comes to majors, extremely rare. E.g., Savannah, GA, hasn’t seen a major hurricane in 35 years.

    I get it that major landfalls is a way to true up the data, since we really don’t know much about hurricanes from over 50 years ago. But majors are so far out on the curve you are using freaks to define the norm.

    Additionally, the difference between a hurricane and a major are local weather conditions. A regular hurricane doesn’t become a major hurricane because of ‘climate change,’ it becomes a major because of fronts, water temperatures, etc. NHC path models have no parameter for ‘climate change.’

    • Broadlands permalink
      February 7, 2021 2:06 pm

      from Wikipedia…
      Hurricane Sandy was not the first to hit New York: A 1938 storm ‘The Long Island Express’ pounded the Eastern Seaboard. The storm formed near the coast of Africa in September of the 1938 hurricane season, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Long Island on September 21. Long Island was struck first, before New England, Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec, earning the storm the nickname the ‘Long Island Express’. The winds reached up to 150 mph and had waves surging to around 25–35 feet high.[The destruction was immense and took a while to rebuild. The western side of the hurricane caused sustained tropical storm-force winds, high waves, and storm surge along much of the New Jersey coast. In Atlantic City the surge destroyed much of the boardwalk. Additionally, the surge inundated several coastal communities; Wildwood was under 3 feet (0.91 m) of water at the height of the storm. The maximum recorded wind gust was 70 m.p.h. at Sandy Hook.

      Hurricane Sandy gets all the media attention while the 1938 edition is not even mentioned. It doesn’t fit the AGW narrative very well, if at all.

  4. Broadlands permalink
    February 7, 2021 2:28 pm

    A very detailed study of the 1938 hurricane is available…

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/66/9/1520-0493_1938_66_286_host_2_0_co_2.xml?rskey=FgOVCO&result=2

  5. tom0mason permalink
    February 7, 2021 3:46 pm

    Fact checked —
    “In Hertford, Hereford, and Hampshire, hurricanes hardly ever happen.”

    However the torrents of rain, hail, sleet, and snow have not confined themselfs to the Spanish plains.
    “‘urricanes gettin’ worse?”, my fair lady says “No, I say Mrs Higgins and anyone else what wants to ‘ear it!”

    I think she’s got it!
    🙂

  6. February 7, 2021 7:34 pm

    While that study focused on Atlantic hurricanes, the pattern is confirmed elsewhere; eg. Japan

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