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National Trust’s climate change threat map–a “load of old codswallop”

March 5, 2021

By Paul Homewood


h/t Philip Bratby/Dave Ward


 Another utterly absurd contribution from the National Trust:




A "game-changing" new map shows the threats climate change may have on the UK’s stately homes and landscapes.

The National Trust warns the number of its sites facing a high level of threat from issues such as coastal erosion, extreme heat and flooding could rise from 5% to 17% over the next 40 years.

Its map plots a worst-case scenario where nothing is done over that time to drive down global carbon emissions.

The charity says planning for the worst will help it protect sites effectively.

The map is intended to help highlight potential future hazards in heritage or countryside sites across England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

National Trust

The map shows the different potential climate change threats – including the risk of overheating and humidity

Interventions can then be made to reduce the hazards – such as planting trees to provide shade in higher temperature areas, or restoring peat bogs to prevent flooding.

The worst-case scenario shows:

  • High heat and humidity would hit the south-east of England, with a third of National Trust sites in the region experiencing at least 15 days above 30C (86F) a year
  • Storm damage, landslides and flooding would become common and more widespread, particularly in the north of England and Wales
  • Coastal erosion and flooding will increase in Northern Ireland, potentially leading to more landslides around locations such as the Giant’s Causeway

The charity wants to plant 20 million trees before 2030, and said the map will ensure trees are planted where they are needed most.

National Trust director for land and nature Harry Bowell said: "This map is a game-changer in how we face the threat climate change poses to the places we care for.

"While the data draws on a worst-case scenario, the map paints a stark picture of what we have to prepare for. But by acting now, and working with nature, we can adapt to many of these risks."

The charity says staff are already taking action to cope with rising temperatures:

  • Heat-tolerant plants are being grown at Ham House in London, which the map warns could often face 40C (104F) heat by 2040
  • At Lyme Park in Cheshire, which was hit by a major flood in 2019, trees are being planted on moorland to slow the flow of water and reduce flooding risks
  • At Mount Stewart in County Down, where rising sea levels have contributed to coastal erosion, a shelter against incoming water has been made
  • At Malham Tarn, in the Yorkshire Dales, where a 18th-Century barn collapsed due to soil shrinkage, teams will plant trees and use specific plants to manage the water table

The map plots the impacts of extreme heat and humidity, landslides, coastal erosion, shrinking and shifting ground due to wet and dry conditions known as "soil heave", and high winds, in 2020 and 2060.


Note the words “could”, “worst case scenarios”, and a map without any data to back it up.


Let’s take a few of the nonsensical claims:


 1) High heat and humidity would hit the south-east of England, with a third of National Trust sites in the region experiencing at least 15 days above 30C (86F) a year


There is no trend towards hot days becoming more frequent in England, or in the south east in particular (Rothamsted):





At Rothamsted, there have been 102 days of 30C and over  going back to 1916. In the last decade there have been 15 days.


2) Storm damage, landslides and flooding would become common and more widespread, particularly in the north of England and Wales

The example of Lyme Park in Cheshire is given, which received 19mm of rain in one day, so let’s look at Buxton, about 20 miles away:






None of the indicators suggest that rainfall is becoming more extreme. Buxton is high up in the Peak District, so rainfall totals would be much higher usually. However Shawbury, 40 miles south in Shropshire is comparable to Lyme Park, and daily rainfall totals of 19mm are commonplace there.



3) At Malham Tarn, in the Yorkshire Dales, where a 18th-Century barn collapsed due to soil shrinkage, teams will plant trees and use specific plants to manage the water table

Evidently 18thC barns have never fallen down before! However data shows that Malham is not getting drier.

Malham is located on a limestone plateau, so the soil would naturally drain quickly.


4) Coastal erosion and flooding will increase in Northern Ireland, potentially leading to more landslides around locations such as the Giant’s Causeway

The nearest tide gauge is across the St Georges Channel, at Millport in Scotland. Sea levels there are rising at just 1.6mm a year, but are no higher now than at the start of the record in 1970.



The Giants Causeway is reckoned to be 50 million years old. The idea that 2 inches of sea level rise is going destroy it is absurd.


Clearly the National Trust have money to burn. Maybe they should contribute some of it instead to the bill for Net Zero.

  1. grammarschoolman permalink
    March 5, 2021 2:33 pm

    Surely they should be pleased if all these bastions of slavery and colonialism are going to fall down.

    • Duker permalink
      March 5, 2021 6:08 pm

      A lot of them did fall down, only a fraction has lasted this long. Hadrians Wall- the 10% still remaining- was mostly rebuilt in late Victorian era. For residential homes , leaking roofs and fire is a bigger risk.

  2. Philip Mulholland permalink
    March 5, 2021 2:38 pm

    I don’t know why they don’t just add a meteor impact crater to the list of hazards.

  3. Ian Magness permalink
    March 5, 2021 2:43 pm

    “National Trust director for land and nature Harry Bowell”
    Reading this site would make him very irritable…
    Highly appropriate person for this study as it is absolute, unmitigated carp.

  4. March 5, 2021 2:44 pm

    Had to look that up.



    Learn to pronounce




    “I think that’s a right load of old codswallop”

  5. March 5, 2021 2:47 pm

    Oh the National Trust touting for money again!

  6. JimW permalink
    March 5, 2021 2:49 pm

    Paul, you use facts, they have been replaced by computer model output, you know this. If we needed any confirmation, just look at the majority of the psyop ‘data’ produced daily for the covid emergency. Pick any analogy from 1984 doublespeak and it exists today.
    Its hard to believe but we are on the edge of an anglosphere totalitarian regime, with dual religions of climate emergency and public health overruling everything else.

    • March 5, 2021 3:03 pm

      Jim, never before the climate fraud did I see such an abuse of data (model output is not data).

  7. March 5, 2021 3:00 pm

    If they are not wasting money on this nonsense then they are wasting it on asking marxists and people with an unbalanced view of history to “advise” them on which parts of our history to erase.

    This garbage is based on models which are WRONG and NOT REAL DATA. Secondly REAL scientists NEVER discuss extremes from the output of models as outcomes, NEVER! Any REAL scientist who did that would become unemployed very quickly. REAL scientists discussing the results of modelling present ” a most likely outcome” with an uncertainty range either side of it. When modelling YOU decide what that range will because it is not real data. The extremes of that range are NOT discussed except to present the range of possible outcomes (no matter how unlikely the extremes are).

    It is time the membership DEMAND that the whole board resign en masse as being clearly incompetent and incapable of conducting the normal business of the charity.

    Why does the National Trust not just get on and do its job???

  8. Broadlands permalink
    March 5, 2021 3:14 pm

    “Its map plots a worst-case scenario where nothing is done over that time to drive down global carbon emissions.”

    Once more. Lowering CO2 emissions does NOT lower what CO2 has already been added which is now over 415 ppm. And because our global emissions cannot be stopped instantly the amount will continue to increase in declining amounts but could reach 500 ppm or more. The best-case scenario is a likely natural lowering of global temperatures which may already be taking place. That’s what happened between 1940 and 1975.

  9. Cheshire Red permalink
    March 5, 2021 3:19 pm

    This article was part of BBC 5 Live’s early-morning propaganda in the 8am news today, complete with ‘further details’ from a breathless ‘reporter’.

    Since when has the NT doing routine work been headline news material?

    • Duker permalink
      March 5, 2021 6:10 pm

      News is a commodity now like flour or orange juice , even heaven forbid, steel, except it has the shortest shelf life

  10. subseaeng permalink
    March 5, 2021 3:38 pm

    I have been a member of the NT for many years now and have enjoyed the history, houses, gardens and parks, however this latest nonsense it it for me, no more of my silver pounds will grace their accounts. I am appalled at all this latest right-onery(?).

  11. Kevin Long permalink
    March 5, 2021 3:57 pm

    Just as laughable as the Scotsman Nov 2019 claiming that Climate change was a threat to Scottish tourist attractions such as The Royal Yacht Brittannia because of rising sea levels!!

    • Jack Broughton permalink
      March 5, 2021 5:02 pm

      Its only March, that one is from April 1st surely!!

  12. M. fraser permalink
    March 5, 2021 5:16 pm

    As they are known as a landlord, ‘the national front’ just get more ridiculous. They could start by employing adults, people who question and engage in proper research, not another one of my British pounds will I send their way. They may have a change of policy when they are feeling the benefits of ‘financial climate’ change!

  13. Dave Ward permalink
    March 5, 2021 5:42 pm

    “Or restoring peat bogs to prevent flooding”

    That’s going to be difficult when they’ve been irreparably damaged by 1,000 ton concrete foundations for useless wind turbines…

  14. Penda100 permalink
    March 5, 2021 6:01 pm

    No money to open property, no money to pay staff. But paying for stupidity (and codswallop) – no problem.

  15. tom0mason permalink
    March 5, 2021 6:14 pm

    This reminds me of the tosh and nonsense that the UK Forestry Commission put out 10 years ago ( ) where they opined that future tree planting would take due regard of the high number of droughts that the future would bring. And yes they went on to spend tax-payer money on that endeavour ever since.
    Of course like this National Trust idiocy the BBC praised and hyped it to the hilt.

    True headline should be ‘National Trust fakery earns them money!’

  16. March 5, 2021 6:34 pm

    As Trust members for many years, we have watched it become more and more ‘woke’. We have also noticed that many of their full-time staff (not volunteers) are very young, often girls, with job-titles that make you think ‘What’s the point of that?’

    However, as the NT’s income falls, hopefully they will realise that they cannot afford the luxury of these ‘non-jobs’, and concentrate on fewer, ‘back to basics’ jobs.

    We too have decided to give up our membership because of the direction in which they are going.

  17. Harry Passfield permalink
    March 5, 2021 7:36 pm

    Can someone advise? I’m a NT member paying a monthly DD for the privilege. Am I OK if, in order to get shot of the NT I just cancel the DD with my bank? I can’t find any way of telling them to bog off.

    • dennisambler permalink
      March 6, 2021 8:41 am

      Just cancel the DD. You could always write to Head Office and tell them why. They presumably have one somewhere.

      • stevejay permalink
        March 8, 2021 8:44 am

        National Trust, Heelis, Kemble Drive, Swindon, SN2 2NA.

  18. March 5, 2021 8:58 pm

    The thing is the UK Parliament declared a Climate Emergency, the NT are just following fashion.

    • Jack Broughton permalink
      March 5, 2021 9:18 pm

      The West Midlands Council have declared a climate emergency which I have questioned as apart from alongside the river Severn, which has flooded regularly for many years, there is no area that could be damaged by “climate change” unless we start having plagues of locusts and climatic rats.

      Climate Emergency = spend our money on stupid and non-beneficial projects.

  19. March 5, 2021 10:27 pm

    So the worst case scenario is 15 days a year or more over 30C. This is routine in many parts of the world. Even if it happens somewhere in the UK, what’s the big deal?

  20. avro607 permalink
    March 5, 2021 11:48 pm

    T0 Harry above.Yes you can cancel D/D,s.I use on line banking to do it.If you are not on line,then give your bank a call.
    I have just cancelled two on line, no problem.

  21. Lorde late permalink
    March 6, 2021 12:26 pm

    Everyone is engaged in mass hysteria. No body seems to be able to think for themselves.

  22. David permalink
    March 6, 2021 1:28 pm

    The worst thing about this is the many people working for the Trust with non jobs. Is the information about what they are paid and what their job titles are available to the public?

    • Stuart Brown permalink
      March 6, 2021 4:40 pm

      David – why not start with their annual report?

      “Every year this report also includes details about the salaries paid to our Director-General and executive team. In the 2019/20 financial year our Director-General, Hilary McGrady, who leads a large and complex national organisation, with an annual income of more than £681 million, and with more than 53,000 volunteers and 14,000 permanent and seasonal staff earned a salary of £195,700.”

      The 10 strong team Executive Team all earn over £100K pa. They may well be worth every penny; I’m not saying otherwise. They claim to be apolitical, and I agree it is part of their remit to educate us plebs as well as maintain their properties, but for me the climate change stuff and ‘Addressing our histories of colonialism and historic slavery’ are beginning to get a bit too much like an agenda. I’m still a member for the moment though, on balance.

  23. It doesn't add up... permalink
    March 6, 2021 2:26 pm

    The National Trust has become a threat to our heritage.. it is merely looking for excuses to cancel it.

  24. avro607 permalink
    March 6, 2021 6:25 pm

    I have been researching “climate change” for about 12 years now,and I think it was ten years ago that I cancelled my NT membership because of some comments in the monthly magazine that was sent to me.
    I cannot recall what they said,but it was obvious to me even at that time,that they had moved to a consensus position.So bye bye.
    The RSPB suffered a similar fate when they plonked a windmill in their backgarden,seemingly ignorant of the death toll on the birds and bats by windmills.
    Some of us who do this research in an attempt to provide an antidote to the spreading of the Green poison here in the UK,and across the World,call it “The Greatest Lie Ever Told”.
    It is heartwarming to know that so many of you search for,and wish to promulgate the truth.
    My especial thanks to Paul for this site,and the incredible amount of work that he does.

  25. March 7, 2021 6:54 pm

    Northern Ireland and Scotland is still rising because of post glacial rebound.
    After having many kilometres thick ice pressing the ground into the Earth’s mantle for millions of years the ground is rising having been relieved of all that mass.
    Thus raised beaches.
    But there must have been catastrophic, unprecedented, sea rise in the past. Just ask the Doggerlanders.

  26. Lorde Late permalink
    March 8, 2021 9:32 pm

    We must be the only sensible people left! I left Greenpeace some years back when they started protesting outside the LandRover factory,even though they used the vehicles all around the world to assist with their efforts!
    Ive left the NT as well. The world is going bonkers.
    Thank you Paul for your efforts in keeping us informed.

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