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Six Month Summer? No, Just More Junk Science

March 11, 2021

By Paul Homewood




Unless measures are taken to curb climate change, summers in the UK and the rest of the northern hemisphere could last for six months come 2100, a study warned.

Researchers from China used historical climate data and modelling to determine how the seasons have shifted in the past, and will likely alter in the future.

Changes could also see winters shrunk down to the span of just two months — with far-reaching impacts on agriculture, human health and the environment.


‘Numerous studies have already shown that the changing seasons cause significant environmental and health risks,’ said paper author Yuping Guan.

Disruptions to the established seasonal cycles causes, for example, birds to shift their migration patterns and plants to emerge and flower at different times.

This can lead to mismatches between animals and their food sources — disrupting ecosystems.

False springs and late snowstorms can also kill off budding plants — while longer summers cause us to breathe in more allergy-triggering pollen, and disease-carrying mosquitos to be able to increase their range.

Changing seasons will also lead to more severe weather events — including heatwaves and wildfires in summer and cold surges and winter storms on the other side of the year.

‘Summers are getting longer and hotter while winters shorter and warmer due to global warming,’ said paper author and physical oceanographer Yuping Guan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

‘More often [now], I read some unseasonable weather reports — for example, false spring, or May snow, and the like,’ he added.

In their study, Dr Guan and colleagues analysed historical climate data on the Northern Hemisphere that was collected daily from 1952–2011 in order to determine how the length and onset of each season has been changing with time.

The team defined the start of each summer as being when temperatures reached the hottest 25 per cent for that year, and winter as the onset of the coldest 25 per cent of temperatures.

Building on this historical dataset, the researchers next used climate change models to predict how the timing of the seasons will likely shift in the future.

Back in the Fifties, the four seasons arrived in the Northern Hemisphere in a predictable and fairly evenly distributed pattern.

However, the team found that, on average, summers grew in length from 78 to 95 days between 1952 and 2011, while winters shrank from 76 days to 73.

Spring and autumn were also seen to decrease in duration — falling from 124 to 115 days and 87 to 82 days, respectively.

As a result of these shifts, the team noted that spring and summer are now starting earlier than they used to, while autumn and winter are beginning later. 


This is very curious. They are not talking about average temperatures being higher, it is instead specific to each year. Note:

“The team defined the start of each summer as being when temperatures reached the hottest 25 per cent for that year, and winter as the onset of the coldest 25 per cent of temperatures”

So it does not matter to the analysis if May temperatures, for instance, have been rising. It simply means that “summer-like” temperatures are occurring earlier than they used to, and also later in autumn – summer-like being a function of that year’s daily temperature data.

It is very simple to check this allegation against the actual data for CET.

For a start, monthly mean daily maximum temperatures are not any higher now than they have been in the past in either May or September. Indeed in the latter month, they have been lower in the last decade:






Averages of course don’t tell us everything, but we can also analyse the number of “summer days” in each month. This tells us quite categorically that they are not becoming more frequent:





It is worth noting that the study runs from 1952 to 2011, and the 1950s and 60s appear to have been a much cooler interlude, which has therefore distorted the results. We do know that picking this period will also exclude the 1920s to 40s in North America, when heatwaves were far more prevalent than now, at the same time drawing trends from the much colder period in the 1960s and 70s. Consequently the whole of the NH analysis is badly corrupted.


Clearly, as far as the UK is concerned at least, this study is worthless junk, and its conclusions baseless.

  1. Harry Passfield permalink
    March 11, 2021 10:38 am

    O/T, Paul (sorry), but AEP’s at it again in the DT today, banging on about hydrogen being our salvation.

  2. grammarschoolman permalink
    March 11, 2021 10:39 am

    Well, that might save the tourism industry…

  3. March 11, 2021 11:18 am

    I have been listening and ignoring this crap for years! In the 90’s we were told in 20 years I would be able to grow grapes in my hometown of Newcastle upon Tyne, 30 years later the weather/climate remains unchaged! Likewise with the other prediction that the Costa del Sol where we have holidayed since 1991 would be a desert, with climate refugees heading North! That hasn’t happened either!.

    What is it going to take to convince the so-called experts and the general public that this is propaganda without any factual basis whatsoever?

  4. Robert Christopher permalink
    March 11, 2021 11:31 am

    Six month summer?

    I’m looking forward to the increased daylight hours!

    Should improve the Solar Farm figures no end. 🙂

    • bobn permalink
      March 11, 2021 2:04 pm

      Yes, The promise of a six month summer is thrilling – bring it on. Oh damn, Paul, why did you dash my hopes with the truth that the climate is going to stay cold and miserable.

  5. Peter Yarnall permalink
    March 11, 2021 11:37 am

    Coming from China, this would be laughable if it were not for the fact that when the west’s economies has all but closed down in order to “curb dangerous emissions”, China would be the only country to have a manufacturing industry and the rest of the world would be clamouring for it’s goods.
    Whatever we say about the Chinese, stupid they are definitely not!

  6. March 11, 2021 11:39 am

    And their projections must be right, after all they’re relying on modelling

    • M E permalink
      March 13, 2021 3:37 am


  7. Jack Broughton permalink
    March 11, 2021 11:44 am

    Peer reviewing integrity is long dead where climate change is concerned. This foolish document should never have been published anywhere that claims to be a serious science publication! The climate has only existed since the 1950s: OMG LOL.

  8. Jack Broughton permalink
    March 11, 2021 11:48 am

    Another interesting thought about journalists. They manage to find obscure and foolish publications to make headlines but miss all the GWPF and NALPKT documents that show the madness of the climate policy and the disastrous implications of the policy ……… just wondering?

    • March 11, 2021 12:14 pm

      Journalists are only interested in headlines and their personal bylines. Facts are of no interest to them. It’s a sad fact of life that bad news always attracts more attention. As a part of our evolutionary background we are effectively programmed to use emotions as the first filter for any news. This means that we have to recognise that people hear the bad news first and loudest, even if the majority is good

      • StephenP permalink
        March 11, 2021 2:18 pm

        The old journalist’s proverb: If it bleeds it leads.

  9. March 11, 2021 11:55 am

    I thought our climate was dependent on geography, latitude and the north Atlantic Jet Stream.

    My advice, buy a warm waterproof jacket, to wear all the year.

  10. johnbillscott permalink
    March 11, 2021 12:19 pm

    I am sure there is not an overriding political reason for this Twaddle as i am sure China would never want to add to the Global Change Panic to accelerate the destabilization of Western economies.

    No doubt Gummer is re-calculating his projections on this.

    • NeilC permalink
      March 11, 2021 1:50 pm

      Sounds more like Ferguson 🙂

  11. NeilC permalink
    March 11, 2021 1:46 pm

    Based on the trend in the CET that will be rise in temperature of about 0.24 Deg C PHEWWW

  12. Broadlands permalink
    March 11, 2021 2:16 pm

    What is the 20th century mean value for CET? How does it compare with the global mean temperature calculated by NOAA…57°F..13.9°C?

    • NeilC permalink
      March 11, 2021 3:48 pm

      9.53 Deg C 1900-1999

      • Broadlands permalink
        March 11, 2021 10:01 pm

        So the 20th century CET is a bit cooler than the contiguous US…11.12*C in 1949. Both are cooler than the NOAA global mean of 13.9°C. And that means much cooler than the Northern hemisphere over the same period. Nothing global about the warming. Never has been.

    • NeilC permalink
      March 11, 2021 3:50 pm

      Forgot 10.32 Deg C

  13. europeanonion permalink
    March 11, 2021 2:28 pm

    Did this last storm period, which failed to materialise here, have a name?

    • Honesty permalink
      March 13, 2021 4:12 pm

      No. The 100MPH winds recently were more severe than storm christoph but didnt get named.

  14. M E permalink
    March 13, 2021 3:44 am

    I thought the seasons were determined by the position of the earth as it orbits the sun. The S Hemisphere points toward the Sun and causes summer days to grow longer. Further on round the orbit and here we have equinoxes . How has that orbit been changed?

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