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India’s Food Productivity Slashed By 25% Claim

April 3, 2021

By Paul Homewood



Let’s take another look at this study:




Warmer regions like Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced slows in crop productivity of between 26 percent and 34 percent, the study determined. The US only saw declines in growth of approximately 5 percent to 15 percent 


You will see that India is one of the worse affected countries.

We know that there is really only one factor which drives India’s agricultural output each year, the monsoon. Droughts are disastrous for India’s farming sector, and, regardless of floods, the more rain that falls the better harvests are.

If we look at the monsoon rainfall record, we see that major droughts occurred in :


















All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall based on IITM/IMD homogenous Indian monthly rainfall data


In other words, during that period of global cooling from 1965 to 1987, ten major droughts occurred, effectively once every two years. In the last 23 years there have been just five.


This is no coincidence. As HH Lamb explained in 1982, when the Northern Hemisphere cools, the tropical rainbelts get squeezed around the equator, with a corresponding decrease in rainfall further north, which led to prolonged droughts in the Sahel and across into Asia:



The study claims that India’s food productivity would have been 25%, if they still had the same weather as in the 1960s. But there is no conceivable mechanism why this should be so, given the monsoon data.

  1. Chris permalink
    April 3, 2021 1:42 pm

    What rubbish – the population has more than doubled / all fed I assume over the last 60 years

    Sent by CJ Matchette-Downes


  2. Broadlands permalink
    April 3, 2021 2:18 pm

    As a side comment, looking at the list it is interesting that the record El-Nino in 1997 and La-Nina in 1998 did not apparently affect the monsoons in India.

  3. Coeur de Lion permalink
    April 3, 2021 2:25 pm

    Breaking news. UAH global temp is down to
    0.01degsC below the 30 year mean. Has the ‘globe’ warmed since 1987?

    • dave permalink
      April 3, 2021 3:58 pm

      UAH changed their ’30-year mean’ base recently from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020. Simply a calibration matter, of course, but a bit confusing.

      If you think of this mean as a centered moving average, then it is the best estimate of the ‘temperature in 2005.’ I do not know about 1987, but March 2021 being the same as 2005 is just another way of saying it is only -0.1 C different.

      Of course, whether the ‘globe’ CAN be said to warm is another matter.
      In terms of a net influx of heat energy, it* can, but in terms of ‘temperature’
      it* can’t.

      On the issue of possible effects of a possible cause (climate and farm productivity in this case) people who do not study economics or business frequently get this wrong. Which is why we have cost accountants to get it right! The cost of an unfortunate development is not the apparent loss, but the cost to fix it in such a way that the loss is neutralized.

      For example you might have four equal fields in a farm and one of them gets flooded, in spring-time. The apparent loss is one quarter of your anticipated crop but the real cost is merely the price to drain the field dry and repair any damage. If that is not possible, perhaps you can farm more intensively on the remaining three. The key is always human ingenuity, working with whatever knowledge exists.

      We have already seen how effective ingenuity can be, with the methods of production of electricity in the UK. When coal started to disappear, it was ‘discovered’ that imports of gas could replace it, burning in neat, efficient, little plants. It has bought us some time before the barbarians win.

      * Depending by how you define “it,” of course. Including the hydrosphere to a depth of 100 meters? Including the hydrosphere to a depth of 3,000 meters?

    • GeorgeLet permalink
      April 3, 2021 4:41 pm

      I believe you are referring to:
      Watch, if this trend continues, the “climate change” scam artists will say the move to so called green energy is working. But sooner or late, hopefully sooner, the people have to wake up.

      • Mack permalink
        April 3, 2021 6:43 pm

        The only problem with the argument ‘green energy is working’ is that it demonstrably isn’t on any metric. The headlong rush in to renewable energy in the West over the past 3 decades has made not a jot of difference to the inexorable planetary rise of Co2 emissions since our departure from the Little Ice Age. And, if Co2 emissions aren’t being reversed, then ‘green energy plainly isn’t working’ as intended and the climeocracy won’t be able to prove otherwise.

  4. GeorgeLet permalink
    April 3, 2021 2:48 pm

    Where is your recent post that WHO announced record grain harvests?

  5. April 3, 2021 3:44 pm

    It is amazing the dreck that journals like Nature Climate Change are willing to publish these days. It is certainly fitting that this paper was published on April Fools Day:

    Meanwhile, in the real world, rising CO2 levels have made crops both more productive and more drought-resistant. Those are two of the reasons that drought-triggered famines no longer periodically decimate large regions of the world, including the Indian subcontinent.

    Elevated CO2 (eCO2) enables plants to use water more efficiently. It does so by increasing carbon uptake relative to transpiration. In other words, when grown with higher CO2 levels, plants need less water to get the carbon they need from CO2 in the atmosphere. That’s especially helpful in arid regions, and during droughts. Here’s a paper:


    “There have been many studies on the interaction of CO2 and water on plant growth. Under elevated CO2, less water is used to produce each unit of dry matter by reducing stomatal conductance.”

    That’s settled science. Yet, remarkably, most so-called “climate scientists” are ignorant of it.

    Rising CO2 levels are extremely beneficial in places like India, which used to be plagued by famines, most of them triggered by drought. These photos were both taken in India, but more than a century apart:

    Look at those potatoes! The large benefits of eCO2 for potatoes and all other major crops has been known to science for more than a century. The benefits are so dramatic that in 1920(!) Scientific American called anthropogenic CO2 emissions “the precious air fertilizer.”:

    The world is literally getting greener, largely thanks to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. Here’s a map:

    Here’s a National Geographic article, about how even the “Sahara” desert (really the Sahel) is greening:


    Images taken between 1982 and 2002 revealed extensive regreening throughout the Sahel, according to a new study in the journal Biogeosciences.
    The study suggests huge increases in vegetation in areas including central Chad and western Sudan. … “Before, there was not a single scorpion, not a single blade of grass,” he said. “Now you have people grazing their camels in areas which may not have been used for hundreds or even thousands of years. You see birds, ostriches, gazelles coming back, even sorts of amphibians coming back… The trend has continued for more than 20 years. It is indisputable.”

    Here’s another article about it, in New Scientist:

    The New Scientist article mentions dramatic improvements in yields of sorghum and millet, both of which are C4 crops. They are often grown in semi-arid regions, because of their low water requirements and high drought-resistance — which is greatly enhanced by eCO2, as this study reports:

    Over 31,000 American scientists (including engineers in relevant disciplines) have signed a petition affirming our conviction that:

    There is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.

    Chief among those “beneficial effects” is healthier, faster-growing plants. The effect is called “carbon fertilization.” A 2013 study found that in warm and arid environments over a 28 year period (1982-2010), as CO2 levels increased by 14%, foliage cover increased by 11%.

    NASA measures the greening trend, from satellites:

    Through all of human history until recently, famine was one of the great scourges of mankind. It was the Biblical “Third Horseman of the Apocalypse,” and the reason the Israelites fled their homeland for Egypt. But, thankfully, widespread famines are becoming a distant memory, and the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is one of the major reasons for that blessing:

    Here’s a paper about how elevated eCO2 benefits wheat:

    Perennial plants also benefit. Here’s what elevated CO2 levels do for pine trees:

    A 2011 University of Michigan study found that trees grow an average of 26% faster at 570 ppm, even with phenotypes optimized for current CO2 levels.

    eCO2 is most beneficial for C3 crops, but here’s a paper about how eCO2 benefits corn, even though corn is a C4 crop:

    eCO2 is especially beneficial for legumes, like beans, peas, and alfalfa, which are grown for their protein content. So eCO2 helps mitigate protein shortages in poor countries. Here’s a paper:

    In fact, thousands of studies show that eCO2 is highly beneficial for ALL major crops. Here’s a fantastic resource for papers on the subject:

    Scientific evidence is compelling that manmade climate change is modest & benign, and CO2 emissions are beneficial, not harmful. The major harms from CO2 are all hypothetical, and mostly implausible. The major benefits are measured, and very large.

    • bluecat57 permalink
      April 3, 2021 11:26 pm

      Thanks for all the links. It shouldn’t take me more than a month to get around to reading them all.

      How about just using common sense:
      1. The world’s population has more than doubled since 1960.
      2. 13% of the population is overweight and possibly obese.l
      How could food production be down?

    • April 4, 2021 2:43 am

      Thanks Dave. That’s a very useful resource.

    • David A permalink
      April 5, 2021 2:05 am

      Excellent comment David B. The only thing I would add is the increased CO2 had also made crops more frost resistant, and the mild warming is mostly an increase in the minimum T, also reducing frost damage. Oh, and growing area has expanded.

      • April 8, 2021 8:04 am

        “Increased CO2 had also made crops more frost resistant” — I did not know that. Do you have a reference? I know that “global” warming mostly warms cold winter nights at high latitudes, but I didn’t know higher atmospheric CO2 levels help plants resist frost damage. How does that work?

  6. P YARNALL permalink
    April 3, 2021 3:47 pm

    That transparent am I? Cheers P

  7. Curious George permalink
    April 3, 2021 4:45 pm

    Sahara was so badly affected. What exactly is the “food productivity” of Sahara?

    • bluecat57 permalink
      April 3, 2021 11:28 pm

      Well, like most things, what you think ain’t necessarily so.
      The first question to ask is, “Define Sahara.”
      Then, define “food productivity”.
      You would be amazed at how much agriculture there is in Los Angeles and Orange Counties in California. I’m betting that is true of a lot of places we perceive as “urban”.

  8. Jack Broughton permalink
    April 3, 2021 8:16 pm

    There are a lot of pseudo-science journals around that are seized on by the gullible UK reporters whose brief is to keep the fear-campaign going at all costs. Madeline Cuff in the “i” would publish Henny-Penny if a “scientist” sent it to her

  9. April 4, 2021 2:43 am

    Slashed food productivity and created climate refugees?

  10. tom0mason permalink
    April 4, 2021 8:02 am

    India has over the years move to a more intensive farming methods. More food grown on less land, even though the effects of the monsoon is still the major natural determinant of how well the crop productivity will be.
    Here are some good news stories from
    Agri Research
    Asia Pacific region records best performance in food affordability: Study

    New wheat variety doubles farmers’ yield in a Maharashtra village

    5 Govt schemes, promoting organic farming in India
    The big man-made stumbling block is India’s infrastructure for transportation, storage, and processing of all this food but India is well on the road for rectifying this. The future for India looks good for food production and not as Dan Avery and the club of dystopians would have it. India, like so much of the developing world is dragging itself from weather dependent boom/bust food production, and with its home built plant and animal husbandry research, gaining a more self-sustaining production and export capability — much to the upset of the globalists, big banks, and the so called ‘charitable’ relief industry.
    Improving import/export opportunities see

    “Participating Indian exporters will be able to connect to the Korean agri-food market, the 4th largest agri-food import-dependent market that has imported 21 billion USD worth of products from overseas in 2019. Korean market would be the new market with great business opportunities for Indian exporters. NODA Labs expects that SilkOne Interact will be the meaningful step for Indian exporters to reach Korean market during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.”

    Not quite the starving million that big banks and the UN would seem to want!

    • dave permalink
      April 4, 2021 9:47 am

      I fully agree that productivity has soared in agriculture – for a variety of reasons.

      But, to some extent, the increase in quantity has come with a decrease in quality.
      Modern ‘food’ is not always a ‘whole food,’ e.g. a food which meets all the subtle requirements of the body. It is necessary to be careful in the marke,t and to read the ingredients with an appreciation of scientific gobbeldy-gook, and to consider the degree of processing and excessive refinement.

      The demonization* of fats and animal foods before 1970 paved the way for the modern debilitating and addictive carbohydrate craze. Carbohydrate is just molecules of sugar tied together. Yet, almost all doctors will tell you to eat more of this, in repeated small meals.
      For your health!

      Brazil is particularly hard hit by Covid-19 at present.. How many people know that a quarter of their population have developed obesity, diabetes and glucose intolerance, in just a couple of decades of affluence? It makes them sitting ducks for a virus whose main, serious, effect is to further unbalance metabolic homeostasis.

      * Adopted into the CAGW religion.

      • dave permalink
        April 4, 2021 10:19 am

        To give an example (which one should always do):

        The ‘recommended daily allowance’ of elemental magnesium for an adult in the USA is an intake of 400 milligrams. The actual average intake, including supplements, is 300 milligrams. Magnesium is a ‘co-factor’ for 100 enzymes in the metabolic pathways controlling glucose metabolism….

  11. April 4, 2021 10:43 am

    If rainfall goes down, droughts are getting worse. If rainfall goes up, floods are getting worse. Sound the alarm!

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