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Climate Catastrophe In The 17thC – Geoffrey Parker

April 9, 2021

By Paul Homewood


I reviewed this book a few years ago, but it is worth running again:




As the name suggests, this concentrates on the period when the Little Ice Age was at arguably its nadir, the 17thC, and describes how it affected not just Europe, but many other parts of the world.


Amazon’s blurb sets the scene: 

Revolutions, droughts, famines, invasions, wars, regicides – the calamities of the mid-seventeenth century were not only unprecedented, they were agonisingly widespread.  A global crisis extended from England to Japan, and from the Russian Empire to sub-Saharan Africa. North and South America, too, suffered turbulence. The distinguished historian Geoffrey Parker examines first-hand accounts of men and women throughout the world describing what they saw and suffered during a sequence of political, economic and social crises that stretched from 1618 to the 1680s. Parker also deploys scientific evidence concerning climate conditions of the period, and his use of ‘natural’ as well as ‘human’ archives transforms our understanding of the World Crisis. Changes in the prevailing weather patterns during the 1640s and 1650s – longer and harsher winters, and cooler and wetter summers – disrupted growing seasons, causing dearth, malnutrition, and disease, along with more deaths and fewer births. Some contemporaries estimated that one-third of the world died, and much of the surviving historical evidence supports their pessimism.



Amongst these catastrophic events, Parker lists:  


Early 17thC

1) West Africa, from the Sahel in the north to Angola in the south, suffered a prolonged drought between 1614 and 1619.

2) Catalonia suffered “the year of the flood” in 1617.

3) All Europe experienced an unusually cold winter in 1620/21, when many rivers froze so hard for 3 months that they could bear the weight of loaded carts; even the Bosphorus froze, an unheard of event.

4) Japan suffered its coldest spring of the century in 1616, while the sub tropical region of Fujian in China had heavy snowfall two years later, another extremely rare event.

5) Droughts in five years out of six between 1616 and 1621 almost the destroyed the new colonies in Virginia.

6) After a few better years, the summer of 1627 in Europe was the wettest for 500 years, followed by the “year without a summer” in 1628, when it was so cold that many crops never ripened.

7) Between 1629 and 1632, much of Europe suffered excessive rains, followed by drought.

8) Conversely, northern India suffered a “perfect drought” in 1630/31, followed the next year by catastrophic floods.

Parker notes that “all of these regions experienced dramatic falls in population



9) After some better weather in the 1630’s came three of the coldest summers experienced in the northern hemisphere. The cold affected both west and east coasts of America, while both the Canadian Rockies and Mexico suffered severe and prolonged drought.

10) Abnormal droughts also affected the other side of the Pacific. Java, for instance, experienced the longest drought recorded during the last four centuries between 1643 and 1671. The drought also extended to the Philippines and nothern China, while Japan had a run of long winters.

11) Back in Europe, disastrous droughts hit Catalonia, Egypt and Anatolia. The Nile , for instance, dropped to the lowest level ever recorded in 1641.

12) In contrast, Istanbul was hit by bad floods in the same year, when Macedonia also suffered so much rain and snow during the autumn that “many workers died through the great cold”.

13) Early in 1642, Seville was flooded, in the middle of the wettest period ever recorded in Andalusia, between 1640 and 1643.

14) Much of northern Europe suffered uncommonly cold and wet weather, during this same period in the early 1640’s, including England, Ireland, France, Hungary, the Low Countries, Germany and Alpine regions, where glaciers advanced to their furthest extent in historical times.

15) Further afield, South America did not escape the effects, with major droughts in Chile, and significantly colder weather in Patagonia during the 1640’s.

16) As had happened three decades earlier, much of West Africa suffered severe, prolonged droughts in the 1640’s.

17) After a series of poor harvests in the 1630’s, in Japan 500,000 died during the “winter of unusual severity” of 1642/43.

18) The decade ended with another bout of extreme weather around the globe. In Britain and Ireland, an “unheard of “ wet summer, which destroyed the harvest, was followed by the Thames freezing over.

19) Other parts of NW Europe also suffered unusual precipitation that year. In the German town of Fulde, 226 days of rain or snow were recorded, followed by “six months of winter”. While appalling weather in France delayed the grape harvest in 1648, 1649 and 1650, drove bread prices to the highest levels in a century , and covered central Paris in floods for much of the spring in 1649.

20) Across in China, the winter of 1649/50 seems to have been the coldest on record.



The 1650’s brought no respite.

21) In the Dutch republic, so much snow fell in early 1651 that the state funeral of William II had to be postponed, and then the combination of snowmelt and a storm tide caused the worst flooding for 80 years.

22) Catastrophic flooding also affected the Seine and Vistula, while, conversely, the longest recorded drought occurred in the southern France regions of Languedoc and Roussillon, 360 days without rain.

23) The “landmark winter of 1657/58” was said to be the severest in memory in England, but also affected other parts of the northern hemisphere, from Massachusetts, where the bay froze over, to the Netherland, Germany and Austria. This was the winter when the Swedish army, with artillery, marched 20 miles across the Danish Sound from Jutland to Copenhagen.


Concentrations of extreme events

24) Parker makes the point that the 17thC not only saw extreme climatic events, but also unusual concentrations of them. For instance, of 62 recorded floods of the Seine in and around Paris, 18 occurred in the 17thC. In England (and probably elsewhere in NW Europe), “bad weather ruined the harvests for five years from 1646, and again between 1657 and 1661”.

The Aegean and Black Sea regions suffered “the worst drought of the last millennium in 1659


1660’s and after

25) In 1675, much of the northern hemisphere experienced a “year without a summer” (again!). The Thames regularly froze over during the 1660’s and 70’s culminating in the winter of 1683/84, when a street was built across, with booths and thousands of people walking over.

26) Poland experienced frost on several summer days in 1664, 1666 and 1667. Further south in Moldavia, in the summer of 1670, “terrible floods, frequent showers and heavy rainfall raged for three months on end, destroying all types of crop”

27) In 1686, a military engineer in Romania described how “for three years now I have not seen a single drop of rain”.

28) In Russia, tree ring, pollen and peat bog data show that springs, autumns and winters from 1650-80 were some of the coldest on record. During the same period, the winters in the Yangsze and Yellow rivers of China are said to be “the coldest spell recorded in the last two millennia”.

29) In the 1670’s it was so cold in Egypt that people had to start wearing furs.

30) Droughts had gone so long in the Sahel that Lake Chad fell to its lowest ever recorded level in the 1680’s.



Perhaps this century can best be summed up by what Parker has to to say about population changes.

ScreenHunter_1385 Nov. 26 19.02

I think we can draw certain things from this analysis by Geoffrey Parker:


1) Both in the severity of the cold and the climatic effects, the Little Ice Age was a truly global phenomenon, contrary to what is sometimes claimed.

2) The century was noteworthy for the concentration and severity of extreme weather.  

3) Climatic effects, such as droughts in Africa and India, are consistent with theories developed by many 20thC climatologists such as HH Lamb, but also others. These state that as cold air spreads down from the Poles, the weather belts are squeezed towards the Equator, resulting in wetter tropics, desert belts moving Equator ward, monsoon failures in India, as well as wetter weather in temperature latitudes.

4) The wealth of evidence pulled together by Parker confirms much of what both Lamb and Brian Fagan have said about events in the Little Ice Age.


For some reason, so much of what happened during the Little Ice Age seems to have been conveniently forgotten by many of today’s climate scientists, who would like us to believe it never really existed. Meanwhile, there are many who seem to want to  return to the climate of those days.


You cannot make any global generalisations, but can anybody seriously suggest that the climate of the 17thC was in any way better than today’s?

Given the unusual plunge in temperatures, not only during the 17thC, but also from the end of the MWP, as early as the 13thC, can there really be any surprise that temperatures have somewhat recovered since?  


Geoffrey Parker’s book can be bought here.

  1. Honesty permalink
    April 9, 2021 3:25 pm

    That’ll begin happening this year and probably continue until the first signs of palm trees on the centre of Europe appear. Mark my words.

  2. Penda100 permalink
    April 9, 2021 3:45 pm

    And all they had to do to “correct” the climate was to release more CO2. Aren’t we lucky that we know so much more today.

  3. dearieme permalink
    April 9, 2021 3:50 pm

    The late 17th century was known in Scotland as King William’s ill years.

    Dearth and famine.

  4. Beagle permalink
    April 9, 2021 4:15 pm

    I bet at the time the scientists were saying we need to breed more cows, the cow farts will create a much warmer climate.

  5. David Parker permalink
    April 9, 2021 4:48 pm

    I make no comment

    Parliament and climate change

    It was always like this, history repeats itself almost perfectly, the UK Parliament passed the first climate change act in 1662, Charles the second was on the throne. Perhaps we should ask the Bishop of St David’s to once again lead us in prayer.

    Samuel Pepys 21st jan 1661

    It is strange what weather we have had all this winter; no cold at all; but the ways are dusty, and the flyes fly up and down, and the rose-bushes are full of leaves, such a time of the year as was never known in this world before here.

    House Of Lords 11th jan 1662

    The Fast to be observed in Westm. Abbey, and the Bp. of St. David’s to preach.
    ¶Whereas His Majesty hath been pleased, by Proclamation, upon the Unseasonableness of the Weather, to command a general and public Fast, to be religiously and solemnly kept, within the Cities of London and Westm. and Places adjacent: It is ORDERED, by the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, in Parliament assembled.

    Samuel Pepys 15 jan 1662

    fast day ordered by the Parliament, to pray for more seasonable weather; it having hitherto been summer weather, that it is, both as to warmth and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which do threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost the last winter; and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time to this day

    Unfortunately, the majority of our political class don’t do ‘history’, political, geological or literary. If they had, they would know that the world is not suffering a current climate emergency. In fact, climatically, we have lived through rather benign times over the past 10,000 years that has enabled mankind to flourish. The only tipping point on the horizon is not a negligible spike in human induced global warming but the major population centres of the planet being crushed under a mile of ice when the next glaciation kicks in, as it surely will. Certainly we can all do more to tackle the very real issues of pollution, environmental degradation and habitat loss but warm and fluffy politicos virtual signalling the advanced economies into abject poverty in a futile attempt to change the weather is, simply, madness.

    • John Palmer permalink
      April 9, 2021 5:07 pm

      Absolutely, David, spot-on. Parker’s book is a first-class work, if a rather heavy, read.
      Very sad to hear about the passing of HRH Prince Phillip today. He was firmly on ‘our’ side in these matters, unlike his lad. I gather they had many a discussion on this.

      • 1saveenergy permalink
        April 9, 2021 7:50 pm

        Charley Chump is the result of breeding from a restricted gene-pool.

      • Vernon E permalink
        April 10, 2021 1:25 pm

        John: I agree with you “heavy to read”. I bought it and failed to finish. Too much of it devoted to China which didn’t really interest me.

    • NeverReady permalink
      April 9, 2021 5:09 pm

      No relation to the author?

      • David Parker permalink
        April 9, 2021 6:34 pm


  6. NeverReady permalink
    April 9, 2021 5:15 pm

    Several years ago I managed to obtain a .pdf that I can only describe as a compendium of written weather records from all over the world going back to the year dot. It was absolutely fascinating.

    Unfortunately the laptop it was on died a couple of years back and i’m blowed if I can even remember what it was called.

    Don’t suppose anyone has any idea, i’m pretty sure I got it from a link on here. What reminded now was the references to Pepys, some of whose missives were included in this text.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      April 9, 2021 11:24 pm

      I think there was a reference to it in Ian Plimer’s book Heaven + Earth.

  7. April 9, 2021 5:51 pm

    I have about 30 climate books relating to historical events. There are many more in the Met Office library and archives where I often go for research.

    So I know all this, YOU know all this, but why can’t we convince those that shape policy to take any notice of the huge amount of data available on climate history?

    Never ready

    I think you may be referring to this

    If you scroll down you will see a number of climate references including a compendium of dates of events for hundreds of years. It has been reordered in recent years so may look different to the version you remember.


  8. Stonyground permalink
    April 9, 2021 5:57 pm

    I have a book about the little ice age. I found it slightly bizarre that the last chapter was basically a load of standard climate alarmist boilerplate. I couldn’t understand how the author could be familiar enough with the details of our changing climate and the horrific extremes of weather that had occurred in the past and not recognise that climate alarmism was nonsense.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      April 9, 2021 11:05 pm

      That would be Brian Foley. I have 4 books of his, all detailing climate changes then the last chapter is always as you describe.
      But I don’t recall that he has written anything since 2009 when those e-mails were leaked.

  9. Mack permalink
    April 9, 2021 6:54 pm

    This excellent tome should be required reading for every MP, Met Office mandarin and environmental journalist. Once they’ve done so they’ll understand that the word ‘unprecedented’ has no relevance in the modern lexicon as pertains to describing recent weather events, and that reducing Co2 to pre-industrial levels is equally irrelevant in trying to achieve a more benign climate.

  10. April 9, 2021 8:49 pm

    A lengthy weather report for 1844
    Warwickshire County Record Office reference CR3222/1
    The state of the weather has always been a crucial consideration for farmers, preoccupied as they are with crop yields and livestock husbandry. Both the length and the content of this report bear witness to this.

    The heat of the summer with light showers made for good harvest weather, while the steadier rain of subsequent months onto soil already warmed by the sun was conducive to the sowing of winter wheat. In contrast the severe frosts early in the following year devastated the bean crop and the heavy rains in later months levelled the crops of wheat. In 1844 the most salient feature of the year came in the dry months from late March to the middle of August. In the searing heat of that month pools and wells almost dried up and pastures shrivelled away, causing cattle to die. As Battle Farm was a mixed farm, with the production of wheat and other cereals appearing to take greater precedence, the impact of this crisis was likely to be of rather less importance than might have otherwise been the case.

    Given the current concern of possible global warming, there is a popular conception that seasons long past were more clearly defined. This is not always supported by the weather reports gleaned from the newspapers and diaries of the 19th century, as illustrated by the description of the very mild December at the bottom of the report, (which continued into early January of 1845).

  11. April 9, 2021 8:51 pm

    climate catastrophe 2021, not a particular fan of French wine but another apricot harvest gone what will we do?

  12. April 9, 2021 9:07 pm

    Lots of stuff here about historical weather in Warwickshire.

    It appears as though extremes of weather were common throughout history, but all these records need adjusting!

  13. Graeme No.3 permalink
    April 9, 2021 11:08 pm

    the first evidence of a frozen Bosphorus was noted during the time of Herodotus
    three successive freezing events are indicated between 7-17 AD.
    another freezing event was reported in 401 AD
    the third cold period extended from the mid-8th to the 13th century, during which the Bosphorus and even parts of the Black Sea were repeatedly frozen
    The fourth cold period began early in the mid-17th century (Maunder minimum)
    These four periods are more or less coeval with the phases of glacial advance in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Historically, Bosphorus frozen three times in 673,801,802 AD. One of these was so severe that people and animals could walk across the ice to Asia. The ice was thick enough to destroy a wharf and damage a bit of the sea wall.

    floating ice masses were present in Bosphorus strait in 739, 753, 755, 762, 928, 934, 1011, 1232, 1620, 1669, 1755, 1823, 1849, 1862, 1893, 1929, 1954.

  14. Duker permalink
    April 10, 2021 4:48 am

    A bit of news from ‘this week’
    French winemakers count cost of ‘worst frost in decades’

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