Don’t get caught out by the weather- Met Office!
By Paul Homewood
Does the Met Office think we’re all babies?
Research undertaken by the Met Office in recent years shows that two thirds of people have been unprepared for severe weather conditions, despite regularly checking the forecast.
Whilst millions in the UK will be keeping an eye on the forecast this summer with a view to staying closer to home, the Met Office is working with leading organisations to help the public make the most of the weather, as well as stay prepared in case of severe weather.
Lack of preparation has been singled out as a reason for being caught out by severe weather. With much of the country likely to be changing their habits in light of restrictions on international travel, the Met Office’s WeatherReady initiative aims to help people make the most of the summer weather, while also taking small steps to be prepared for severe weather conditions.
WeatherReady is run in collaboration with Cabinet Office and aims to help the public and businesses stay safe and enjoy the weather throughout the year. Working with partners, the Met Office hopes to help the public to get the most out of summer, while staying safe.
Will Lang, Head of Civil Contingencies at The Met Office said, “WeatherReady advice can make a real difference in preparing for severe weather.
“Across the year, being WeatherReady means taking different steps. As we move into summer, particularly with many people likely to stay in the UK this year, it’s important that people stay prepared by keeping an eye on the weather forecasts, and taking a few simple steps to minimise its impacts.”
Working with expert organisations around the country, the Met Office has pulled together specialist advice for the general public on the WeatherReady website, including information on preparing for long car journeys, how to keep cool in hot weather, UV, how to stay safe in the sun, and much more.
If the Met Office has enough money to waste on rubbish like this, never mind employing a Head of Civil Contingencies (whatever that is), then it is time their budget was cut.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
You couldn’t make this up. Unbelievable hog wash.
You can … They have !!!
And trouble is, the sheeple believe in the unbelievable – because since the 1980s the education system has stamped on critical thinking, they have no frame of reference.
One minute a ‘nanny state’ in fear of ridicule and litigation. The next minute the state really couldn’t care less.
Dual diagnosis.
One wonders whether this is a reflection of the general ignorance of the public with regard to weather events. No wonder they’re all convinced by the climate changers.
The young are often divorced from Nature. Combine this with the desire to look cool or tough and that provides much of the reason for inappropriate clothing.
Add in that many of the young don’t even think it through and you have the reason why many are like the young waiter who served us with coffee yesterday, who confirmed they got soaking wet walking home, even though the forecast had been predicting the bad weather for several days.
Jobs for the Boys. There must be millions of useless idiots employed in the pursuit of climate change alarmism, many receiving grants as well as government handouts. I suppose these are the green jobs promised by Biden and Boris.
There’s no such thing as weather – only inappropriate clothing.
As an allotment gardener (i.e. involving a bit of a walk from home as well as the gardening) a decent weather forecast in plain English is one of life’s necessities, but recent Met Office forecasts on line, especially longer term ones are as clear as mud in their contradictions between headlines and content. And I can look out the window and see the mud for myself! And they are going to advise us on how to prepare?
I’ve often wondered whether weather forecasts are any better now than they were 30 years ago when we didn’t even have satellites to inform.
Is there any metric for the accuracy of local weather forecasts?
Am thinking that fir cones and bits of seaweed are probably as useful for local weather forecasting. And if not – at least they can go in the compost bin! These days I find the best method is to remember to now-and-then stop weeding and look over my shoulder to check what the clouds are doing and then work out if it’s a dash for the polytunnel or a run for home that’s imminently required.
Tish, the broadcast ones on Radio4 are even worse. I find the on-line ones quite good, I reckon about 90% accuracy. You can actually track the forecast weather across a region using a slider for the satellite prediction over time.
You can narrow the forecast to quite a small town, although the BBC search engine is dire. You have to persist. It seems to have an obsession with airports for some reason. If you are going to London for a day it always offers you the weather for Docklands.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2649258
Thanks for that.
My rock-climbing chums prefer the Norwegian site, YR Weather. It updates frequently and I’ve found it accurate enough for my cycling.
Many thanks.
If only there was an organisation possessing a state-of-the-art £multi-million SUPERcomputer that could accurately forecast the weather.
But it isn’t good enough, so they are going for one even bigger and much more expensive, (running on Windows 10 :)). I wonder who suggested Microsoft to the government?
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-awarded-12-billion-uk-met-office-supercomputing-contract-atos-files-legal-challenge/
February 22, 2021.
“Atos says it was unfairly excluded from supercomputer tender due to undisclosed requirements around processors
Microsoft has seemingly been awarded the contract for the Met Office’s new £1.2 billion supercomputer, with Atos filing a legal challenge against the deal. Last year the Met Office announced it would spend £1.2 billion (US$1.56bn) on building the world’s most powerful supercomputer dedicated to weather and climate. The first phase is due to begin in 2022, with a second phase (2028) proposing to expand it a further threefold.
Atos IT Services UK Ltd is claiming the secretary of state for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and the Meteorological Office breached procurement laws when choosing to award the contract to Microsoft in January. This is the first public mention of a company being awarded the Met Office supercomputing contract.
Atos is asking the High Court to set aside the contract decision and declare that it should have been awarded the project, as well as damages because it was wrongly excluded on the basis of undisclosed requirements and therefore breached procurement law.
Update: A Met Office spokesperson told DCD that the Court has lifted the injunction, allowing it to proceed with its supercomputer procurement.
“We will continue to robustly defend our selection decision at any future hearings and remain confident that any issues can be worked through,” said the spokesperson. Microsoft wouldn’t confirm or deny whether it had won the tender, only advising DCD to contact the Met Office.”
The BBC reported on it but didn’t mention the Microsoft angle, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51504002
But they do ask, “And will it help with climate change?”
That’s the aim, with the digitally-simulated atmosphere also run far into the future to explore the effects of a hotter world.
The effects of the rise of 1C over the past 150 years are still not fully understood, let alone those of bigger increases to come.
It should mean researchers can add more detail to their projections, weaving in factors such as the way nitrogen reacts with the carbon in the air.
And as the UK moves towards its target of net zero emissions by 2050, there’ll be a chance to explore different options for how the country uses the land.”
It seems it will use so much electricity they are talking of housing it in Iceland or Norway to use hydro-power. Presumably they don’t have enough confidence in wind turbines or solar panels, because they won’t know whether the wind will blow or the sun will shine.
Carbon nitrate? Has the BBC got any more information on this compound?
Better computer models …. who knew that was missing
Supercomputers only give you the same erroneous result, but microseconds earlier.
Or as more first boss used to call my moder detailed models – spuriously accurate.
Yet more evidence of the “nanny state” culture that has become the norm for successive governments of all political parties since “Teflon Tony” first became prime minister in the late 1990’s
I don’t know about the UK but here in South Australia there is some scepticism about the predictions of the Bureau of Meteorology about the weather next day, based on experience lately.
Mind you, I can remember the outburst of an ABC racing caller years ago who was marooned in the broadcast box by unforecasted torrential rain. The studio controller went off for a cup of tea and allowed a rant of about 15 minutes about the skill and accuracy of the forecasters and how they should look out the window some of the time. He also recommended a length of wood with a bit of rope nailed to one end. “When it moved the wind was blowing, and when water dripped off it, it was raining etc”.
Nowdays they use a computer to get things wrong.
I figure they removed the advanced study they made about what bears do in the woods.
It is rare that you can rely on Met forecasting for the next day let alone a week or more in advance. During May the forecasts have only been notable for their absolute ineptitude. Admittedly I live on the north coast of an island and variables abound but instead of being open and upfront about the significance of multiple variables the Met Office seems to congratulate itself at every turn. It seems odd to me that even though most people must recognize how inconsistent weather patterns are the Met Office gets away with forecasting long range climate change
With its direct link to the Cabinet Office is looks as if Carrie Symonds now runs the Met Office as well.
Note that AGW has moved on from being called “Climate Change” to “severe weather” or “extreme weather”. It’s no longer even a pretence of being science to being openly prole control.
Research undertaken by the Met Office in recent years shows that two thirds of people have been unprepared for severe weather conditions, despite regularly checking the forecast.
Haha…”despite regularly checking the forecast”
That’s because the Met Office forecast (guess) changes overnight and once or twice even during the day…there is no forecast, just a best guess that’s updated as they look out the window, so no surprise that if people are relying on a Met Office forecast fir the days weather they’re getting caught out.
How did I survive??? When doing fieldwork for my PhD in plant ecosystems, I had 58 15x25m plots in the Gettysburg Basin over diabase rock. It took me 5 days to do them all. One memorable day, it was pouring the rain, but I was working on the dbh (diameter breast height) of trees in my plots. I was wearing a backpack w/ all my equipment and had a clear poncho so that I could hold my clipboard w/ the data sheet and write on it underneath w/o getting it soaked. The most fun was when I realized that I had misread my corner plot stakes AND had done the trees between 2 plots. I had to scrub that and do the correct one. A truly memorable day and not one I hoped to repeat.
But here I am 36 years later, no worse for the rain that day, nor the many rainy and snowy days which have followed.
My best tip for dodging rain showers is to look at loops of rainfall radar maps, such as this one:
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/radar?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&CREG=ukuk_free
AFAIK the Met Office does not provide such a service.
Interesting that on their ‘weather ready’ website they bemoan the ‘estimated’ 2000 people per annum perishing in heatwaves each year in the U.K. whilst conveniently omitting to mention, according the the cabinet office’s own figures, the 35,000 who pop their clogs each winter due to freezing their t**s off. In this context only people dying with an ice cream in their hand seem to count as victims of ‘extreme weather’.
In a small way I’m with the Met Office on this one.
I occasionally go out with a local walking group and I’m the only one who has any idea of what the weather is going to be like as I’m the only who knows to look at the Meteosat rain radar – just shows how knowledgeable or interested most people are!!!!
Yes but rain is not “extreme weather”.
Good point, Im often reminding a friend who has to use a bike ( epilepsy so cant drive), check the direction the rain comes from first, but its not ingrained so he doesnt.
‘Research undertaken by the Met Office in recent years shows that two thirds of people have been unprepared for severe weather conditions, despite regularly checking the forecast.’
Research? Who are they kidding? What a ridiculous statement.
What “severe weather conditions”? This all seems to be completely imaginary.
57 degrees F and drizzle is not extreme.
Removing the need for people to think for themselves to which far too many respond enthusiastically!
“while staying safe”
Is this a joke? What weather do we need to be worried about in terms of our safety in the summer?
Are they completely mad or just desperate to find some sort of propaganda to churn out that mentions extreme weather?
The peculiar thing I have noticed about the BBC’s on-line forecast, now provided by Meteo not the Met Office, is that winds in the thirty mile an hour bracket just do not exist. If there is a storm forecast, the winds do not rise from the teens through the twenties and thirties up to storm force. They mysteriously jump the thirties into 40mph+ where they then experience a much smoother transition up the scale once more before subsiding – but again missing all speeds in the 30mph+ decile.
Weird.
Worse still, they are BLACK WINDS!!
I’m still wondering if there is any way to find the trend of accuracy of weather forecasts. Certainly, the 3-day forecasts are usually nonsense and the 5-day ones in the Sunday papers are wrong by the Monday. My impression is that forecasts were more accurate when they relied on meteorologists know-how than computers, but I’d like to see a scientifically based assessment if one exists.
Warning of severe weather events, you mean like barbequeue summers?