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Greenland Temperatures & The AMO

June 13, 2021

By Paul Homewood





It’s not new, but it’s worth going over it again.

We have seen how Greenland temperatures rose sharply in the 1920s, and remained at levels similar to the last decade until the 1960s, when they fell equally sharply. This change in climate is closely interlinked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which switches from cold to warm phase, and back again, roughly every 50 to 60 years:




If we put the temperature and AMO graphs together the correlation is immediately obvious:




(I have centred the the 10-year average temperatures, to align with the smoothed AMO trends, which are also centred.)

What is significant about the last few years is that Greenland temperatures have begun to fall despite the AMO flatlining.

It is absolutely clear that Greenland temperature trends are determined by the AMO, and that carbon dioxide has little or no effect at all.

  1. AC Osborn permalink
    June 13, 2021 8:09 pm

    The problem now is that the AMO is no longer the “controlling factor”, it is now the quiet sun.
    If the AMO turns down during the quiet sun we could see the temperatures there fall of a cliff, or a Glacier.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      June 13, 2021 9:56 pm

      It’s both. And a dozen other things besides. Possibly with a bit of CO2 thrown into the mix and just maybe a very minute contribution from humanity.
      One thing is certain: climate has changed in the past an awful lot more than it will in the next century — barring some cataclysmic event over which we will have no control at all!

  2. Phoenix44 permalink
    June 14, 2021 9:35 am

    I don’t know how they are measuring the AMO but I imagine it’s rather imprecise. It would be a big surprise therefore if it had in fact turned down in line with the temperature changes. Using a ten year average on a trend with a relatively sharp peak will tend to miss the true peak.

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