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Hottest Month? Poppycock!

August 14, 2021

By Paul Homewood

More, disgraceful reporting by the BBC (complete with a disgusting use of a photo of the Turkish wildfires):


July was the world’s hottest month ever recorded, a US federal scientific and regulatory agency has reported.

The data shows that the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 0.93C (1.68F) above the 20th Century average of 15.8C (60.4F).

It is the highest temperature since record-keeping began 142 years ago. The previous record, set in July 2016, was equalled in 2019 and 2020.

Experts believe this is due to the long-term impact of climate change.

In a statement, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that July’s "unenviable distinction" was a cause for concern.

"In this case, first place is the worst place to be," NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement.

"This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe."

The combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 0.01C higher than the 2016 record.

In the Northern Hemisphere, land-surface temperature reached an "unprecedented" 1.54C higher than average, surpassing a previous record set in 2012.

Map showing temperature percentiles for July 2021

Meanwhile, back in the real world, July temperature anomalies even according to NOAA themselves are well below the peaks of 2015 and 2016, and barely higher than they were two decades ago:



And the claim that they know the world’s temperature to one hundredth of a degree is ridiculous. Far from the full global coverage implied by the BBC’s map above, below is the actual coverage:

Large parts of the world have no coverage at all, and much of the rest is affected by UHI. In contrast, satellites offer virtually 100% coverage, other around the poles, and are not corrupted by UHI. Data from these satellites indicate that atmospheric temperatures are no higher now than in 2002:

  1. Harry Davidson permalink
    August 14, 2021 6:34 pm

    Thank you Paul. I saw this in the Graun and it did not fit with what I had read about July. I appreciate the deconstruction of the falsehood.

    • August 14, 2021 7:09 pm

      It was also on Channel 4 News (of course, as they are more alarmist than the BBC and the Grauniad).

  2. LeedsChris permalink
    August 14, 2021 6:38 pm

    The difficulty now is that we are very far down the ‘rabbit hole’ of data modelling, interpolations and modelled estimates….. I recall reading that the number of real-life temperature gauges that are used by NOAA to form these maps has declined hugely since the 1960s and most of what you see on these maps over huge areas (especially all the Oceans, most of Africa and Asia and parts of South America) is made not from real data, but interpolations (ie modelled data). In that sense the monthly temperature comes straight out of the Alice in Wonderland World of “a month is as warm or as cold as I want it to be … and think I can get away with saying.”

    • Broadlands permalink
      August 14, 2021 7:45 pm

      Chris… that is correct. Back in 2009 Phil Jones (East Anglia CRU) wrote to me…

      “ The 1999 paper is only the second attempt to calculate the number directly from observations. It is within about 0.5 deg C from the only other study in the 1969/70 period – by Crutcher and Meserve and Taljaard. The reason for the differences (and why the accuracy is only expected to be within +/- 0.5 deg C) is because of areas without data in the base period – see the maps in the paper. These areas include large areas of the Southern Oceans, parts of the Antarctic, the central Arctic, central Greenland etc. To get values for these areas you have to make estimates and these introduce errors. Lapse rate estimates have to be used for mountainous regions such as Tibet and Greenland. So the bottom line is that 14 C number for the globe is probably only accurate to +/- 0.5.”

      “And the claim that they know the world’s temperature to one hundredth of a degree is ridiculous.” Indeed it is!

      • LeedsChris permalink
        August 14, 2021 9:15 pm

        Absolutely breathtaking isn’t it. It is undoubtedly the case that there is no way anyone could be able to know what the temperature of the world is to any accuracy possibly even of 1C. I think I recall seeing various estimates over the years of between 13-15C, so calculating these figures to hundredths of a degree is statistical nonsense.

    • Mack permalink
      August 14, 2021 10:42 pm

      Chris, I recall many moons ago, the Yanks claiming record heat records tumbling in Chad and excitedly announcing that it was indicative of global warming. The only problem being that, at the time, Chad didn’t have a single weather station that met WMO standards and the temps were guesstimated via ‘infilling’ from neighbouring countries. Chad is six times larger than the UK and, to date, has only 6 reporting weather stations. Would you say that only 6 stations, spread across an area of 1.2 million km2, would be able to give you an accurate guide to the ‘average’ temps of a country of this size? If the answer is ‘yes’ then congratulations, you are a climate scientist. If the answer is ‘no’, then you are just a poor scientist and there will be no grant funding for you thank you very much!

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      August 15, 2021 12:19 pm

      The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”

    • Mark permalink
      August 18, 2021 3:06 pm

      And the weather stations that were removed were rural and the ones left are on top of huge heat sinks like airports and downtown concrete jungles, so basically all they have is lies on top manipulated data.

  3. Robert Evans permalink
    August 14, 2021 6:44 pm

    This summer, temperatures in the arctic have been below normal, and have been this way for the last 20 years, The Antarctic shows above normal levels of sea Ice. These were the areas
    the IPCC said would show the most warming.

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      August 16, 2021 8:38 am

      Robert, as a follower of the DMI’s Greenland Ice, Temperature North of 80’N, and sea ice pages several things appear to be the case. This year the Arctic temperature chart has been much nearer normal with fewer excursions above average during the winter and, as you say a summer below average.
      The sea ice has been following the pattern of recent years.
      But Greenland has been very interesting. Several incidents of what the BBC would call unprecented mass gain (but they didn’t mention) and after the two days of unprecedented melt, where enough ice melted to cover Stoke Poges to a depth of three feet or whatever the metric was, it looks like summer is over on Greenland and their three hot days were at the end of July beginning of August. As I recall Greenland had a very short summer melt last year too; as this year late to start early to finish.

      I don’t know if it’s possible to see previous years charts on the DMI site,but Robert Felix at IceAgeNow (I miss his reports of cold events they were an antidote to the BBC’s constant stream of “we’re frying tonight” messages) has the chart from this time last year.

  4. MrGrimNasty permalink
    August 14, 2021 6:56 pm

    Yes, going by UAH 6/7 other Julys were essentially as hot or hotter, and the UAH global anomaly map (if someone can link, my browser doesn’t like it) looks nothing like the BBC inferno.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      August 14, 2021 7:02 pm

      Oh it was there already!

    • clarrie permalink
      August 14, 2021 10:09 pm

      you mean this one ?

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        August 15, 2021 9:41 am

        Yep, it seems to correspond far better with actual weather experienced, rather than global thermageddon.

  5. Spiro Ozer permalink
    August 14, 2021 7:05 pm

    You don’t explain why the BBC reporting is disgraceful or why the use of a photo of the Turkish wildfires is disgusting. We aren’t psychic.

    • August 15, 2021 9:15 am

      Because it’s using the deaths and losses of people for propaganda purposes. It’s called Climate Porn

  6. Up2snuff permalink
    August 14, 2021 7:13 pm

    As the NOAA satellite measurement of temperature has the UK much warmer than average during July 2021 – see first Global Measurement – it doesn’t say much for the accuracy of the NOAA satellite measurement. If I recall correctly, we had about seven days of heat out of thirty-one.

    • Mack permalink
      August 14, 2021 11:37 pm

      When everyone I know, who swallows BBC climate drivel unquestionably, bangs on about ‘it’s the hottest summer evah’, I merely invite them to look out of the bloody window. Cue embarrassed silence followed by ‘But it’s really hot in Italy, Greece and Turkey’ to which my standard response is, ‘That’s why the Brits take their holidays there. They get a real summer as opposed to the statistical one dreamt up by the Met Office practising ouija science with their runway and glasshouse adjacent temperature gauges.’ As a few swallows don’t make a summer, a couple of hot days interspersed with a few warm, soggy days is not evidence of ‘global heating’ wreaking havoc in the UK, it’s just a boringly traditional British Summertime of which generations of our citizens will be familiar.

  7. August 14, 2021 7:28 pm

    Still – look on the bright side. When they all arrive in their private jets for COP 26 at the end of October, they won’t be able to land because of the snow.

  8. Broadlands permalink
    August 14, 2021 7:37 pm

    In the US 48 states, the maximum mean monthly temperatures for July were in the 1930s.

    2021 was the 28th warmest. A cause of concern…because it wasn’t mentioned?

  9. Rasa permalink
    August 14, 2021 7:45 pm

    Who writes this shit. Who even has to time or interest to put together this shit.
    Explain the methodology of calculating a “world wide average” temperature last month and 147 years ago?

  10. Curious George permalink
    August 14, 2021 7:53 pm

    Lying is a progressive way of life.

    • 3x2 permalink
      August 14, 2021 8:17 pm

      I’m not sure that they lie, as such. They genuinely believe, in a cult like fashion, and don’t allow your opinion into the bubble.

      Take a look at the BTL comments here (for example) …

      • theolderguvnor permalink
        August 14, 2021 8:49 pm

        Global warming is from the same stables as the virus/ vaccine. It is most definitely a real plan to give the central banks ultimate control of both what we do and how we spend:

      • August 15, 2021 8:24 am

        That’s actually just a nutjob conspiracy theory. What’s your evidence?

      • Micky R permalink
        August 15, 2021 11:52 am

        “They genuinely believe, in a cult like fashion, and don’t allow your opinion into the bubble.”
        It ‘s almost as if it’s a belief system, driven by believers, seeking signs to support their beliefs.
        “It’s a sign! You must believe! Repent and wear sackcloth!” Perhaps some self-flagellation as well.
        History shows that belief systems are generally dangerous.

        Thanks to Paul for once again countering the believers.

  11. peter green permalink
    August 14, 2021 8:02 pm

    Its been a cool july for us in the highlands… courgettes are very small and barely worth picking……those people at the Beeb are a bunch of liars…..trying really hard to brainwash us all….. even scaring children and vulnerable people… an utter disgrace

  12. 3x2 permalink
    August 14, 2021 8:12 pm

    I have always had my reservations regarding the data sets’ but they were finally set in stone when, just before ‘Paris’, they miraculously found some ‘global warming’ down the back of a filing cabinet.

    The first illustration in your piece demonstrates just how they ‘found’ it. Global coverage where there was no coverage at all. Just make it up. Welcome to ‘The Adjustocine’.

    Truth is that it was just as warm in Iceland in the 30’s/40’s as it is now. Until you ‘take into account’ …

    • chriskshaw permalink
      August 14, 2021 9:01 pm

      Love the comment. Recommend “Adjustocene” with the e rather than the I, sounds like a protein otherwise

      • 3x2 permalink
        August 14, 2021 9:29 pm

        Still have the 2009 ‘raw’ and the 2009 ‘adjusted’. Taking 1.2 deg C from one to the other, but only for 20/30/40 really does show what they are up to.

        Haven’t downloaded 2021 temps, no need. Same s**t different day. Paul will probably agree.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      August 15, 2021 8:05 am

      Obama obviously sent the order out to fix the temperatures for Paris, to erase the pause in global warming. The infamous ‘pause buster’ paper by NOAA, Karl et al.

  13. August 14, 2021 8:55 pm

    “Large parts of the world have no coverage at all, and much of the rest is affected by UHIE”

    I’d bet that the UHIE accounts for most all of the IPCC claim that heat waves are trending much worse. Certainly are not in the US – even with it.

  14. Graeme No.3 permalink
    August 14, 2021 9:56 pm

    I am amused by the graphic showing southern Australia as warmer than average. Only yesterday several people commented on the unusually colder weather this winter.
    The temperature forecasts for this town (Mt. Barker) in the Adelaide Hills are regarded as ludicrous, but then the local weather station failed to meet the BOM’s own requirements, as did 48% of stations crowd surveyed across Australia (see Ken’s Kingdom). And if half the stations aren’t up to scratch what chance is there that the figures are accurate?

  15. Jackington permalink
    August 14, 2021 9:59 pm

    Who is “a US federal scientific and regulatory agency? Do they actually exist? – if so why?

  16. clarrie permalink
    August 14, 2021 10:05 pm

    Gotta luv how much of the blue measured areas, changed to pink and red.

    Was it done by a colorblind monkey ?

  17. 2hmp permalink
    August 14, 2021 10:20 pm

    There is little point in trying to contest these figures and their supposed cause. As Erasmus said,’ trying to suppress opinions which you do not share is a waste of time’. Let them learn the truth in due course…

    • David Wojick permalink
      August 14, 2021 10:43 pm

      On the contrary it is useful and important to point out the several
      deep fallacies in these numbers.

      • David Wojick permalink
        August 14, 2021 11:13 pm

        For example, it is a heavily adjusted, convenience sample, subject to lots of heat contamination on land and consisting of a lot of SST proxies on water, using an area averaging method that violates statistical sampling theory in several ways, that bears no resemblance to the satellite measurements.

        Pure junk.

    • Gary Kerkin permalink
      August 14, 2021 11:33 pm

      I notice there is no byline in the BBC (US & Canada) article which I suspect lends weight to your argument that the BBC is deliberately biased. For example I would expect the usual suspects (Harrabin, McGrath, Rowlatt) to be involved with an article of this nature. That they are not indicates a much wider, probably systemic, bias.

      I agree with David Wojick’s response to 2hmp that it is always useful to point out the fallacies and inexactitudes stated anonymously in BBC publications. Some people will read the criticisms and draw proper conclusions. My concern is that it is a slow process.

      In the meantime, Paul, thank you for your efforts to draw attention to the calumnies of the BBC.

  18. David Wojick permalink
    August 14, 2021 10:42 pm

    As I pointed out 4 years ago, these surface estimates are statistical junk:

    They measure nothing. Only the satellites measure global temperature and these measurements look nothing like the bogus surface stats.

  19. August 14, 2021 11:04 pm

    Reblogged this on Roald J. Larsen.

  20. August 15, 2021 3:33 am

    Poppycock it may be, but it is the only message Biden, BJ & the EU hear. Why can’t we get our message across to them

    • Gerry, England permalink
      August 15, 2021 11:01 am

      Because they only listen to people with ‘prestige’ and not people who are knowledgeable. A climate ‘scientist’ who earns their living from the scam has ‘prestige’ and will be invited along to ‘inform’ the morons in government. And it is verbal briefings as the morons are not able to read anything.

      The ‘journalist’ drink from the same well and unless it becomes a personality clash will promote the same lies.

  21. Martin Brumby permalink
    August 15, 2021 4:13 am


    For the same reason you won’t get a paedo to admit that his victim wasn’t really ‘gagging for it’.

    Truth and balance mean absolutely nothing to these people.

    “Don’t confuse me with facts, I’ve made up my mind!”

  22. John Hultquist permalink
    August 15, 2021 5:53 am

    Go to the link Paul provides, and note the orange oval over Western Canada & USA.
    I live in the center of that “hot spot”, and can attest that there was a very hot week. The only time I experienced a warmer temp was once in Tucson AZ in June. Maybe that was 1978, but I’m not sure.
    While many attribute the heat to global warming, Cliff Mass gave a detailed explanation of why it was a natural event. Of course he got blow-back, but his data and explanation make sense to me. {I’m not clueless about the atmosphere.}

  23. Phoenix44 permalink
    August 15, 2021 7:42 am

    Even if the data was absolutely accurate, so what? Are we supposed to believe that in a mere 150 years we have seen every single possible naturally occurring July temperature? Indeed if the Alarmists are correct we have perhaps only 50 wholly natural years of data. And that’s if we consider the early data reliable and accurate to one degree. The truth is there could have been many July’s hotter than this between say 1000 AD and now but we simply have no way of knowing if there were.

  24. Jay permalink
    August 15, 2021 8:29 am

    I have been doing lawn maintenance since i was 18….30 years ive been outside working all day everyday just about.
    I will swear by this to my dying days, it is not near as hot now as it was in the early 2000s.
    These past 3 summers here in the south have been mild and even cooler by a few degrees than any I can ever remember.
    I live in the deep South and its barely been in the nineties all summer..
    High 80s mostly..
    No global warming here..
    And hasnt the climate been changing since it started?

  25. Martin Brumby permalink
    August 15, 2021 10:20 am

    Just to remind everyone, when ever those with a shred of honesty and awareness point out problems from unusual cold, there is huffing and puffing and we are sternly told that “Climate” must be considered over a period of at least thirty years.

    You don’t hear that quite so often now they have ‘discovered’ that CO2 causes hot, cold, wet, dry, windy, calm, exciting & boring weather.

    But anyone whose IQ score is bigger than their hat size must be aware that a ‘hot’ year, month, week, day or hour means absolutely nothing globally.

    And that a wildfire on one, two, a dozen Greek islands isn’t caused by ‘Climate Change’ in turn caused by burning fossil fuel.

    Come back and poke me awake when ALL the Greek islands are ablaze.

    But even if they all were ablaze, I’m unlikely to take anything GangGreen says seriously.

  26. August 15, 2021 7:43 pm

    Reblogged this on Gds44's Blog.

  27. Tolerance4 permalink
    August 15, 2021 8:29 pm

    Thank you for this article revealing the truth. Adding to that: temperatures have only been recorded since the 1880s, so, you can’t really claim the world’s hottest temp. Only the hottest in the last 130 years.

  28. Peter permalink
    August 16, 2021 5:17 am

    I live in Korea. So on the red/white/blue temperature map of the NOAA, I search for the Korean peninsula. It shows quite red, meaning 3~4C warmer than usual.

    Well…. this year in Korea July was warm, just like any other July. However, it was not 3~4C warmer than usual. I would have noticed. Like a few year back when temperatures stayed around 36C (which is 3~4C more than usual) during the day for a few weeks.

    Now does NOAA get this wrong data on their map?

  29. Phoenix44 permalink
    August 16, 2021 8:04 am

    I’m curious – was it a record July in any country? As far as I’m aware, the lower 48 in the US was not a record, the UK was not, I’m pretty sure nowhere in Western Europe was and I believe Australia was cool. If no countries set records, how was the world a record?

  30. Todd Nelson permalink
    August 16, 2021 7:33 pm

    According to recorded temperature data, the average global temperatures have gone down by 0.5 degrees since 2016, after rising by 0.7 degrees since 1904. 1904 was chosen by much of the scientific community of the time, because that was the first year that there were enough reporting station worldwide to make the number an educated guess instead of a wild one. To this day there are not enough reporting stations on land to get more than 0.1 degree accuracy, There are many fewer reporting stations on the oceans, so accuracy there is even less than that of land based readings.
    According to all the raw temperature data I have been gathering from around the world, in 1850 the world was still recovering from the mini ice age, and that 1.1 degree temperature rise would agree with as many of the reporting stations as were around during that period. Back then the existing reporting stations would average the temperatures between them, a method still being used in areas with very few reporting stations.

  31. Broadlands permalink
    August 16, 2021 10:23 pm

    Sorry again… for some reason it won’t copy and transfer completely. Try a Google search.

    • Jack Broughton permalink
      August 18, 2021 7:50 pm

      Looks like a very interesting paper, but unfortunately it is a purchase one. Hard to justify unless one is at a Uni of government institution where these are provided free. Any ideas about how to make it available to the people?

  32. August 19, 2021 10:28 pm

    You state :”July temperature anomalies even according to NOAA themselves are well below the peaks of 2015 and 2016,”.
    Your statement is correct if you wanted to say monthly anomalies in 2915 and 2016 were higher than in July 2021.
    But it is not correct if you read from the graph that July anomalies were higher in any year represented in the NOAA graph.
    July 2021 had the highest monthly anomaly of all recorded July anomalies and thus is likely to be the warmest moth recorded via surface stations.

    • August 20, 2021 6:30 pm

      Which is precisely why they all use anomalies, because actuals are meaningless.

      And when you factor in margins of error, ststistically all you can say is that it tied with many other Julys.

      No serious scientific organisation would make the “hottest evah” claim, but of course NOAA are not one

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