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“Big increase in weather disasters over the past five decades”-Claim BBC

September 6, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

This is another fairy tale to scare the kids which comes around once a year without fail:

 

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The number of weather-related disasters to hit the world has increased five-fold over the past 50 years, says the World Meteorological Organization.

However, the number of deaths because of the greater number of storms, floods and droughts has fallen sharply.

Scientists say that climate change, more extreme weather and better reporting are behind the rise in these extreme events.

But improvements to warning systems have helped limit the number of deaths.

As global temperatures have risen in recent decades, there has been a significant uptick in the number of disasters related to weather and water extremes.

In the 50 years between 1970 and 2019, there were more than 11,000 such disasters, according to a new atlas from the WMO that charts the scale of these events.

Over two million people died as a result of these hazards, with economic losses amounting to $3.64 trillion.

"The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change," said WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas.

"That means more heatwaves, drought and forest fires such as those we have observed recently in Europe and North America. We have more water vapour in the atmosphere, which is exacerbating extreme rainfall and deadly flooding. The warming of the oceans has affected the frequency and area of existence of the most intense tropical storms," he added.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58396975

 

 

In fact, according to the BBC’s own chart, the number of disasters has declined in the last decade, hardly supporting their story.

But why do disasters seem much more common now than in the 1970s, when even the IPCC says there is no evidence that weather is getting more extreme? Simple- better reporting systems mean that we record weather events now that would have been missed in the past.

We have, of course, been down this road before! The WMO data comes from Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) database EM-DAT. CRED, who only began publishing data in 1998, themselves warned in 2004 that earlier data was incomplete:

 

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/09/07/the-international-disaster-database/

Despite this warning, false claims that weather disasters are on the increase keep being made. Last year, it was the UN, and the before it was the left wing IPPR. And as surely as night follows day, their claims are faithfully trumpeted by the BBC and the rest of the gullible media.

21 Comments
  1. mjr permalink
    September 6, 2021 1:00 pm

    usual BBC bullsh*t and lies..
    also , just watching bbc2 politics show with an interview with the lunatic woman founder of XR. (called Gail .. shouldnt she change her name to Hurricane given the “worsening weather” ) She came up with the usual existential falling off a cliff scare stories. No facts
    Not a critical or taxing question to her (how is the diesel car going?) and the panel of muppets discussing the days points also had no questions .. it was all about whether the XR movement are popular or not.
    So basically an advert for XR
    Journalism? Ha!

    • dennisambler permalink
      September 6, 2021 5:12 pm

      She is a government plant: https://nowhere.news/index.php/2019/04/01/dr-gail-marie-bradbrook-compassionate-revolutionary-for-hire/

      “It is unclear precisely when, or more importantly how Gail transitioned from molecular biophysicist to collecting causes like a declining civilisation accumulates laws; but what we do know is that for the past two decades, she has been a favoured ‘activist’ of the British State, at least when it comes to their ‘digital inclusion’ and ‘universal internet access’ agendas.

      The fact of the matter is, Dr Gail Bradbrook is one of the UK State’s go-to ‘experts’, chosen to give (the right kind of) evidence at various parliamentary hearings and committees.”

      BEIS Committee question Extinction Rebellion
      14 June 2019

      https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/365/business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committee/news/97280/beis-committee-question-extinction-rebellion/

      “Following the Prime Minister’s commitment to the UK cutting carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and the publication of the Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC) report, the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee examine the rationale for going faster to hit the net zero target, hearing from witnesses including Gail Bradbrook, Extinction Rebellion, Isabella O’Dowd, Climate and Energy Specialist, WWF, and Baroness Bryony Worthington, Environmental Defense Fund.”

      • europeanonion permalink
        September 6, 2021 8:48 pm

        When Boris goes looking for support for his mad cap adventure amongst the common people to show how his message is getting through, he has to cosy-up to those loveable Rag Week perpetuals, XR. If that is the level of realty we are dealing with, if that gives him some sort of satisfaction about the progress of his plans, will the last person leaving Britain switch the lights off please? We don’t want any waste.

  2. bobn permalink
    September 6, 2021 1:12 pm

    Prior to 1998, the whole operation of EM-DAT was hit and miss. EM-DAT’s definition of a disaster now includes extremely tiny, local events.
    It simply is not conceivable that such tiny events would have been always recorded or lassed as a disaster in the past.
    A modern ‘disaster’ is officially called such if it meets only one of the following 4 criteria
    1. 10 or more people reported killed
    2. 100 or more people reported affected
    3. Declaration of a State of Emergency
    4. Call for international assistance

    So once again they are comparing apples with penguins. The Stats before 1998 are NOT comparable with Stats after 1998.

  3. September 6, 2021 1:48 pm

    Paul, thanks for digging into this. I had assumed that it was the same database as the infamous IPPR debacle, but I was hoping someone else would find out for me so that I wouldn’t have to.

    “Since 2005, the number of floods across the world has increased by 15 times, extreme temperature events by 20 times and wildfires seven-fold.”

    IPPR’s results as reported on the BBC news website (February 2019).

  4. September 6, 2021 1:55 pm

    “When people are fanatically dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kind of dogmas or goals, it’s always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt.”
    – Robert M. Pirsig, author and philosopher (6 Sep 1928-2017)

    The BBC is a fanatical organisation dedicated to the destruction of the British way of life.

    It’s not CO2 stupid.

  5. Chaswarnertoo permalink
    September 6, 2021 2:04 pm

    Is that true or did you hear it on the BBC?

  6. Broadlands permalink
    September 6, 2021 2:16 pm

    It has never been about the science. It’s all political (some even religious). Why would any sane group of people want to meet constantly at locations all around the world to demand we take CO2 down to ZERO…then go further to NET-zero… with the goal of eliminating what has been our most reliable source of energy just to lower the Earth’s temperature by half a degree C? How can that make any sense?

    I realize that there are few, if any, of those people here. But those kinds of questions need to be answered by those who are protesting and writing all of this scary media stuff day after day.

  7. September 6, 2021 2:35 pm

    Reblogged this on Roald J. Larsen and commented:
    If we compare to the 30’s – temperature has been falling by over 0, 5 C. If we look at the last 3 decades there’s been no change, i.e. there’s no natural climate change and even less man-made.

    That means any changes in the number of disasters has to be due to better reporting and bias in what is being reported (some of these people really, really do need a climate problem to be able to defend their salary).

  8. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 6, 2021 3:52 pm

    I know this has been covered before, but if you didn’t laugh………..

    “Ofgem said mass take-up [of EVs] would lead to lower bills even for those who did not own an electric vehicle.”

    How do they get away with this gross lie – our bills are going up rapidly, instead of going up 100% in 5 years they might only go up 98% in 5 years – that is not a lower bill!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/04/electric-car-rollout-will-push-energy-prices-households/

    • Broadlands permalink
      September 6, 2021 4:12 pm

      Well it must be true for those who don’t or didn’t even own a vehicle. A bicycle with a motor? More nonsense from the media.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 7, 2021 8:35 am

      It’s the same lie as Brexit – GDP will be “lower” – when what they are actually saying is lower than it would have been, not lower than it us now. And of course they omitted to say that we would still have the vast majority of GDP growth, so that without Brexit GDP in 20 years would be 160% higher but with Brexit “only” 154% higher – 6% lower!

      Everything is a lie, from pretty much anybody anywhere.

  9. bluecat57 permalink
    September 6, 2021 4:32 pm

    In the past, say pre-1950, didn’t every significant weather event cause a “disaster” for someone?

  10. Harry Passfield permalink
    September 6, 2021 4:41 pm

    Ah, this is good-cop – bad-COP26.
    Anything for headlines.

  11. Malcolm Skipper permalink
    September 6, 2021 5:19 pm

    “Scientists say that …….. better reporting (are) behind the rise in these extreme events.”

    Perhaps if reporters like Matt McGrath stop reporting, there may be a reduction in the number of extreme events.

  12. dennisambler permalink
    September 6, 2021 6:04 pm

    In the Little Ice Age, witchcraft was blamed for the devastating climate:
    Fagan’s The Little Ice Age (Basic Books, 2000):

    “Witchcraft accusations soared, as people accused their neighbors of fabricating bad weather…. Sixty-three women were burned to death as witches in the small town of Wisensteig in Germany in 1563 at a time of intense debate over the authority of God over the weather.”

    “Almost invariably, a frenzy of prosecutions coincided with the coldest and most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the eradication of the witches they held responsible for their misfortunes.”

    The Aztecs were more extreme than the weather:
    “When rainfall and agriculture had resumed, [after long droughts] the Aztecs responded by massively increasing the number of human sacrifices to their rain god Tlaloc. It is thought that hundreds of thousands of people were sacrificed.”

    Click to access extreme_weather_extreme_claims.pdf

  13. cookers52 permalink
    September 7, 2021 4:23 am

    In the last 50 years world population has doubled, but deaths from extreme weather events have dropped substantially. Vulnerability is lowest evah.

    Numbers of extreme weather events recorded has risen 5 times in the last 50 years.

    Struggling with understanding how this is a problem.

  14. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 7, 2021 8:29 am

    As ever the data disproves the claim. There’s clearly no direct relationship between either CO2 or temperature in the chart. It just shows an increase until it shows a decrease. And as ever, why is shown by decades and not as a linear chart? Presumably because that would show a lumpy or even a cyclical pattern. Probably with one correlation to anything except El Ninos.

    Climate doesn’t know its the 1990s. These charts are fraudulent.

  15. Phil O'Sophical permalink
    September 7, 2021 10:59 am

    “their claims are faithfully trumpeted by the BBC and the rest of the gullible media.”
    Far too generous, Paul. They are not gullible, they are bought and know exactly what they are doing. As criminal in its own way as the Covid scam, though the impact is less immediate.

  16. ThinkingScientist permalink
    September 8, 2021 9:55 am

    So if EM-DAT is only valid for records post 1998, that means on the BBC graph only the last two decades 200o-2009 and 2010-2019 are valid for any comparative purposes.

    So the record clearly shows a slight decline from the period 2000-2009 to the period 2010-2019.

    • ThinkingScientist permalink
      September 8, 2021 10:31 am

      BBC complaint submitted

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