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The Impossibility Of The 1.5C Target

September 22, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

As you will recall, the Paris Agreement set a target of 2C warming from pre-industrial levels, but parties agreed to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. These of course were only “wishes”, and the Agreement had contained nothing of substance to meet either of these objectives.

Nevertheless, the upcoming COP26 is increasingly being presented as an opportunity to get global warming down from 2C to 1.5C. Even if you accept the basic premise of GHGs, this is a nonsense. As already pointed out, the national pledges made at Paris implied that emissions would carry on rising rapidly up to 2030, meaning that even 2C was not achievable. Now a new paper in Nature reveals just how far and how quickly emissions would have to be cut to meet the 1.5C target:

 

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https://www.eenews.net/articles/abandoning-60-of-global-oil-might-limit-warming-to-1-5-c/ 

 

Emissions in 2019 were 34 GtCO2, giving the world another thirteen years with a budget of 460 Gt. If emissions continue to rise as they have since Paris, that figure will reduce to maybe just ten years.

Even the developed countries, which account for only a third of all carbon dioxide, are unlikely to cut by more than 10% in the next ten years, so to meet the 1.5C target then would effectively mean zero emissions after 2030, plainly an absurd proposition.

To meet that carbon budget would imply a halving of global emissions this decade, and then halving again in the 2030s. There is simply no way this is going to happen.

But that won’t stop the myth of the 1.5C target being kept alive.

I predict that COP26 will come up with a last minute, “save the planet” deal, just as Copenhagen and Paris did, which will of course be nothing of the sort. Instead it will be a smokescreen to disguise the utter failure of the whole farrago.

My guess is that China will offer up some minor concession, probably centred around carbon intensity, but absolutely no commitment at all to reducing emissions this decade. India will offer even less, probably only some extra pledges on renewable energy, tied to hundreds of billions more in climate aid. Everybody will pat themselves on the back. And in five years time the absurd Matt McGrath will be warning once again that we only have x weeks to save the planet again.

Be warned. We will be told that the world has finally committed to keeping temperature rise below 1.5C, and we must therefore play our full part by destroying our economy. Meanwhile China, India and the rest of the developing world will carry on regardless.

We were told the same lie in 2015. Don’t fool for it again.

43 Comments
  1. Ann farmer permalink
    September 18, 2021 10:09 pm

    Please see copy of letter to the Daily [‘green’] Express:

    Dear Sir,

    A game of two halves? Green Protesters 1 Humanity 0

    Ex-Metropolitan police detective Mick Neville says the Insulate Britain protesters who blocked several junctions on the M25 motorway, leading to a vehicle collision in which a seriously injured woman was airlifted to hospital, were putting ‘jobs and innocent lives at risk’, stopping ‘people getting to work’ and blocking ‘deliveries to shops and businesses’. But he says what really ‘bewilders’ him ‘is the lack of immediate action by the police’, who were ‘standing around’ in their dozens, and although they ‘did make arrests’, they waited ‘hours to do it’, adding: ‘Imagine if a bunch of football supporters sat down in the middle of a main road? The police would be straight in to clear them away’ (‘Tell us if you need anything’, *Daily Express*, September 16, 2021). https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1491704/Insulate-Britain-M25-demonstration-Surrey-Police-woke-traffic-latest-climate-change-new-vn

    No doubt he is right, and the next time there is a call to ban anyone praying outside an abortion clinic – as happened recently when an MP proposed jailing anyone offering help to distressed and needy pregnant women to help them avoid abortion https://www.lifenews.com/2021/07/05/british-mps-attempt-to-legalize-killing-babies-in-abortions-up-to-birth-fails/ – we will find the official response to Insulate Britain or whatever green protest is happening on any given day a useful lesson in comparing attitudes to those trying to save life with those who are careless that their antics may cost lives. As the M25 protests showed only too clearly, the latter are tolerated and even offered help, with one officer telling the protesters: ‘“If any of you have any questions or are in any discomfort or need anything, just let us know.”’ Leaving aside the obvious dangers of the protest – not to mention the increased vehicle pollution caused – how many held-up drivers were ‘in discomfort or needed anything’?

    However, the green campaign, with its constant emphasis on the damage human beings are doing to the Planet, is a willing stooge of the population control movement from which it emerged, https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ecology-Twentieth-Century-History-Bramwell/dp/0300045212/ref=sr_1_6?dchild=1&keywords=anna+bramwell&qid=1615293678&s=books&sr=1-6 and although the Marxist tendencies of those who are happy to obstruct and hold up capitalism might seem to clash with the right-wing idea of population control, when it comes to culling population, Communist regimes have excelled themselves. Thus green propaganda serves their dual purpose of undermining Western economies and making Communism look positively beneficial.

    Unfortunately, too many Western institutions – including, sadly, the police, whose job is to curb crime, prevent disorder and save lives – are acting as the ‘useful idiots’ of both the extreme Right and Left of politics. Once again it looks as if the greens have won, and the result of this latest ‘environmental’ game will be Green Protesters 1 Humanity 0.

    Yours faithfully,

    Ann Farmer

    0203 842 8751

    277 Prospect Road

    Woodford Green

    Essex IG8 7NQ.

    On Sat, 18 Sept 2021 at 21:55, NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT wrote:

    > Paul Homewood posted: “By Paul Homewood As you will recall, the Paris > Agreement set a target of 2C warming from pre-industrial levels, but > parties agreed to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 > °C. These of course were only “wishes”, and the ” >

    • GeoffB permalink
      September 18, 2021 10:21 pm

      wow ann that’s a great long post and very relevant, but probably not a good idea to put address and phone number on,,, the green loonies may take it out on you.

    • Ian Wilson permalink
      September 19, 2021 9:30 am

      Well done! Did they publish it?

      • September 19, 2021 10:33 am

        The only relevant and sane national plan, at least for the UK, is to ignore the myth of AGW, confident that is just a myth and if that proves wrong, by any chance, no harm could possibly result from such a hands -off policy.

        Those making filthy lucre. from the climate scam would howl but why should we care?)

    • CheshireRed permalink
      September 19, 2021 11:19 am

      Unsure how plod is a useful idiot for the ‘Far Right’, (which barely exists in this country). I see zero equivalence compared to taking a knee or standing around while XR nutcases are given a free reign.
      Other than that, OK.

  2. Richard Greene permalink
    September 18, 2021 10:10 pm

    We already reached +1.5 degrees C., for a moment, at the peak of the 2015 / 2016 El Nino heat release. No one was harmed. No one even noticed. Of course that +1.5 is based on the official numbers that have to start with very rough estimates from ice cores, since there were very few weather stations in the 1800s.

    A good estimate would be actual warming of +2.0 degrees so far, since the cold 1690s, during the Maunder Minimum.

    The +1.5 and +2.0 degree C. targets are meaningless numbers not based on any science.

    Actual global warming in the past 45 years, which was measured with decent accuracy, was mild and harmless. Most affecting colder areas of the Northern Hemisphere, mainly during the winter, and mainly at night. There is no evidence that another 45 years of similar wglobal arming would be harmful. More CO2 in the atmosphere actually benefits our planet — because CO2 is the staff of life on our planet. More CO2 = more food = more life.

    • Broadlands permalink
      September 18, 2021 10:39 pm

      Richard.. the El-Nino and La-Nina is the ENSO’s sea surface heat. Not the air. There is no correlation between the monthly ENSO and Mauna Loa CO2. Nor is it even possible for man-made CO2 to affect it or any of the other parts of natural variability. Volcanic eruptions?

      Agree of course that the impact of our added CO2 has been minimal and hardly a “crisis”.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      September 18, 2021 11:41 pm

      Based on the ice core measurements the previous interglacial (under several names – I use Eemian) about 120-130 thousand years ago was warmer again than current times. This is cross-checked by the sea level being 6-7 metres higher than present levels (due to ice melting?). There were Homo sapiens alive then “living in harmony with nature”.
      During the Holocene Optimum humans settled in the Middle East were farming grains in areas now barren – it is unlikely that temperatures were lower then.
      In the Medieval Warming people were growing wheat near Trondheim in Norway, the same latitude as parts of Iceland where it seems the settlers also grew it, and they certainly grew oats and barley. Iceland only started growing barley again in 1924 following about 400 years when it was too cold, and they have started growing wheat again in the last 10/15 years (although with specially bred modern variety). It would seem that those early Viking settlers weren’t damaged by warmer weather, so why the hysteria about a prediction.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        September 19, 2021 7:59 am

        There were hippos in the Thames, with Neanderthals. Modern humans were still in Africa.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        September 19, 2021 9:25 am

        Not just Sapiens but also Neanderthals across Europe in the Eemian, widely acknowledged to have been 1-2 degrees warmer than now. But no runaway warming, no positive feedbacks, not obvious the Arctic was ice-free, not obvious the Atlantic currents stopped.

        In other words, the Eemian disproves the Alarmists completely. So why are we even discussing this?

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      September 19, 2021 8:00 am

      And the LIA was sooo good for humans…

  3. Robert Christopher permalink
    September 18, 2021 10:17 pm

    “We were told the same lie in 2015. Don’t fool for it again.”

    I don’t think readers of this site will, but thinking the British government will change direction is a forlorn hope.

  4. September 18, 2021 11:14 pm

    The 1.5 C target is entirely feasible. The best way to stay under it is to do absolutely nothing.

    That’s because real world ECS is well below 1 C/doubling, and there has been no warming this century so far, based on the snow line data.

    (It’s no wonder that China and India are flipping the bird at COP 26: they have real climate scientists, unlike the West, which seems only to have woke activists in white coats.)

    • September 19, 2021 10:39 am

      Mind you, Bruce, glaciers have been in retreat, at least as seen in Grindelwald, CH, but that is

      within historical events, entirely normal fluctuation.

  5. September 19, 2021 1:17 am

    How about the long term, at best, option of reducing population?

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 19, 2021 9:25 am

      After you.

  6. September 19, 2021 3:23 am

    “These of course were only “wishes”, and the Agreement had contained nothing of substance”

    Bingo!
    Nothing of substance

  7. cookers52 permalink
    September 19, 2021 5:57 am

    This is what the younger generation believe and making these changes is the action they want to take.

    At the moment it is the older generation who are to “blame” and Politicians just jump on the bandwagon. The coal industry was an easy target for closure, it was inherently dirty and messy, but all energy products have their own problems.

    I have no idea what the consequences of the net zero policies will be. My guess is, based on what’s happening is that the resulting mess will take a bit of sorting out.

    Ironically, net zero will make our civilisation more vulnerable to extreme weather events, but that’s what we have decided to do.

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      September 19, 2021 8:02 am

      Not me, mate. I’m making my own decisions and complaining like hell about Mr Nut Nut PM’s idiocy.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 19, 2021 9:37 am

      We? When exactly did we do that? And most who might think we should have no idea of the consequences because they have been lied to about cost and feasibility. And bevause they have no idea whatsoever about economics.

      We are already at least £1,000/year poorer every single year because of renewables and that figure will double. The knock on effects will be much higher. Then add in EVs, no flying, no gas cooking etc and the figure becomes- no exaggeration – easily £10,000/year or more per adult. And making us poorer directly makes us poorer indirectly. So let’s say we all become £15,000/year poorer.

      Have you any idea the effects that will have on employment, taxes, public services? We will have 1950s levels of GDP with 2021 levels of “cost”. The Great Depression will look like a Golden Age.

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        September 19, 2021 11:47 am

        Not to mention the pain and cost the succeeding generations are going to have to suffer when it comes to removing the thousands of old and useless wind turbines.

      • September 19, 2021 12:38 pm

        Do those in political charge know that?
        If they do, d UKo they care?
        If not, they deserve a one-way ticket to Siberia, or somewhere else less comfortable!

  8. September 19, 2021 8:12 am

    The world has warmed 1c since pre industrial times. But wasn’t it always the case that the AGW crowd said we could not have affected temperatures until the 1950s? When did that change?

  9. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 19, 2021 9:52 am

    Just before (failed) Katowice the IPCC produced SR1.5, remember? Universally shot down as an unscientific political document of immense length and wearying jargon. I read some of it, did you? Sank without trace. Already at one degree above etc etc. Half a degree? Go upstairs in your house to correct that. The idiots

  10. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 19, 2021 10:08 am

    Alok Sharma was just on the Andrew Marr show ludicrously claiming more renewables will safeguard/fix the current energy supply/cost issues, allowed, actually encouraged, to make the same assurance 2 or 3 times, unchallenged. Is he deluded/dishonest/insane?

    Meanwhile September 2021 mean CET is currently record hot, looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, it’ll come down a bit, but it’s still going to be right up there.

    • CheshireRed permalink
      September 19, 2021 11:30 am

      Kwasi Kwarteng was tweeting similar yesterday.
      A child could tell them more ‘renewables’ capacity introduced requires more reliable back-up!
      Too complex for government ministers to grasp, eh?

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      September 19, 2021 11:35 am

      COP26 president Alok Sharma said: “We do not see risks of supplies right now and prices are being protected.”

      “We have the energy price cap, we have the warm homes discount, to protect people at this particular time.”

      He said the situation showed that the UK needed to do “even more in terms of renewables”

      “That’s how we ensure you have a clean energy mix and you have security of supply in our country,” he said.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58615356

      Sharma is a disgrace, sold his soul to Satan. No one could be this stupid.

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        September 19, 2021 12:46 pm

        Suppliers are desperately increasing prices to any customers not covered by the xap. That means new fixed price deals, and industry and commerce. So your bill may be capped for now but the business you work for may not be able to afford its energy bill, and you could lose your job.

    • Colin MacDonald permalink
      September 23, 2021 12:13 am

      Record heat indeed, so we’re not using much gas for heat, the temperature so far this September is about the same as the average for July. So what happens next week if we get typical October weather? Rationing? Rolling blackouts?

  11. September 19, 2021 10:49 am

    BBC yesterday:
    Despite all the promises to take action, the world is still on course to heat up to dangerous levels.

    That’s the latest blunt assessment of the United Nations.

    Its experts have studied the climate plans of more than 100 countries and concluded that we’re heading in the wrong direction.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58600723
    – – –
    That’s it then. We’re all doomed! Doomed, do you hear? 🤣

  12. dennisambler permalink
    September 19, 2021 12:26 pm

    If only CO2 did what is claimed for it I could worry.

    I came across a paper from 1981 by James Hansen et al: https://climate-dynamics.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/hansen81a.pdf

    “The most sophisticated models suggest a mean warming of 2° to 3.5°C for doubling of the C02 concentration from 300 to 600 ppm. The major difficulty in accepting the theory has been the absence of observed warming coincident with the historic C02 increase.

    In fact, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere decreased by about 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970 ( a time of rapid C02 build up. In addition, recent claims that climate models over-estimate the impact of radiative perturbations by an order of magnitude have raised the issue of whether the greenhouse effect is well understood.”

    He then goes on to say that because temperatures in 1980 were the same as 1940, Global Cooling is disproved.

    1931-60 in the CET was warmer than 1961-90, the period still used as the anomaly baseline. If CO2 drives temperature, why didn’t it?

    • September 19, 2021 1:17 pm

      The major difficulty in accepting the theory has been the absence of observed warming coincident with the historic C02 increase. — Real world data can be such a pain.

      ‘Sophisticated models’? My aching sides…😆

      • September 19, 2021 1:37 pm

        CO2 is within 1% of its warming limit, even if CO2 level is doubled to 800 parts per million-
        Prof. Gerald Ratzer, McGill Universiity, Montreal, Canada.

  13. 2hmp permalink
    September 19, 2021 4:38 pm

    Financial pain is the only pain the Government understands – certainly not well argued correspondence. With a bit of luck the Treasury will soon be given the best argument for Boris to do a smart u-turn on both electric cars by 2030 and ground pumps soon after, when 80% of the UK population is not able to afford either.

  14. Brian Smith permalink
    September 19, 2021 6:10 pm

    Concessions from China? Looks like they’re not even going to turn up.

  15. September 19, 2021 6:42 pm

    The Chinese policy on.AGW is right.

  16. Jack Broughton permalink
    September 19, 2021 7:34 pm

    Even if one accepts the CO2 forcing factor, as David Coe showed here recently the ECS (response to doubling CO2) has been vastly overestimated historically (or should that be hysterically). It seems to me that 1.5 deg K above LIA would be good.

    The earth is merely recovering form the LIA and will start to cool again when nature decides (not mann).

  17. Eddie P permalink
    September 22, 2021 3:25 pm

    Don’t forget that 2C is a made up number and has no scientific base. Was chosen purely to give politicians a target. Also remember that a leading climatologist said that this has given rise to exagerated and alarmist claims to justify the spending.

  18. September 24, 2021 3:50 pm

    Reblogged this on Gds44's Blog.

  19. September 25, 2021 11:30 am

    The dominant proportion of the geological evidence for natural climate cycles, in multiple proxies, suggests now is a maximum in the short term cycles and cooling is more likely from here, or, more speficically in human lifetimes, a gradual reversal of the warming to cooling occuring, a short phase within the shortest cycles.

    But, the IPCC depends upon there being no natural change, because its models attribute what natural change we observe to CO2 to make their predictions, by crude correlation, noscience involved. So the reality of natural change means they are wrong before they start.

    Hence the desperate denial of natural cycles by IPCC Virtual reality climate science, now with Mann 2.0Ka of AR6. With the observed change as real and natural, there is no change to attribute to CO2. Here is some natural change:



  20. September 27, 2021 4:01 pm

    Reblogged this on boudica.us and commented:
    H/T gds44

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