Pleasant September
October 1, 2021
By Paul Homewood
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
For the most part, the month just gone was particularly pleasant, finishing up the 7th warmest on the CET record. However, this is not maybe as eventful as it sounds, given that September 1729, 1795 and 1865 were warmer.
There were a couple of hot days, the 7th and 8th, when CET maximums reached 28.3 and 28.2C respectively. However these temperatures were well below the 31.0 and 31.3C set on successive days in 1906:
The main reason for the high monthly average was the lack of any days colder than average until the last week.
In short, weather.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Clock the BBC’s latest attempt at Climate Science inviting you to put your postcode in and see how Climate Change “will affect your area”. It then goes on to show the spreadsheet/modelling effect of various changes in temperature. Apart from this blatantly misleading use of the word “will”, take a look at the number of people accredited at the foot of this mendacity….how many people does it take to lie about Climate Science in your area – quite a lot it seems.
Interesting as the Met Office have announced September the 2 nd warmest evah recorded according to Devon Live. Perhaps there records only now start in 1980?
The More Things Change . . . The More They Stay the Same . . .
Come on Paul, are you insinuating the Met office are being selective or exaggerating the facts in their latest missive, widely carried on various credulous media sites?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/warm-september-marks-start-of-autumn
Clearly the almost hottest September EVAH!
tonyb
One September can be dismissed as weather, but recent Septembers are significantly more likely to be in the very upper end of the mean CET range.
Since the late 1990s the warmth/density of very warm Septembers is clearly higher than at any other period in the entire CET.
And lets not forget the suffering in the UK when a heatwave hits the country.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/16083866/glamorous-racegoers-doncaster-st-leger-heatwave/
And your point is Mr Grim?
One has to be careful, that in eagerness to dismiss the baseless dangerous man-made climate change alarmism, that you don’t discredit yourself by refusing to accept reality. This September was exceptional, saved from being the warmest in the best part of 400 years by a couple of cooler days at the end, and very warm Septembers are a trend in the UK weather in recent years.
Mr Grim. Do you accept the LIA, and the recorded history of much colder conditions some 300-400 years ago across (at least) NW Europe?
If there is an ongoing warming trend since those times, surely warmer months today would be nothing unremarkable.
Which comes to the question of cause of this warming period.
If the earlier part of this 300-400 year warming period was due to an enhanced greenhouse effect caused by human CO2 emissions, then surely emissions of CO2 would have been beneficial. I have never heard it said that the climate conditions during the LIA were favourable compared to today. In that case, we’d be thankful for industrial CO2 emissions.
However, I’m not aware of any such suggestion, and it doesn’t really suit the MMGW narrative. If so, keeping the idea of adverse MMGW will need a different approach. It will need at least two causes of warming over the last 300-400 years: some cause for the earlier part, followed by the enhanced greenhouse effect in the latter part.
To take this alternative approach, it will be necessary to demonstrate what caused the earlier period of warming to get us out of the LIA, and then to demonstrate that this warming mechanism is not a significant contributor to warming today.
Sounds like a job for Occam’s razor.
Mr Grim that’s just silly. This September was only “warm” because of a couple of very hot days. It wasn’t “saved” by a couple of cool days, that makes no sense. They happened, that was the weather. To claim a trend you would have to show all sorts of things you are not showing.
And? We haven’t had any cold September’s in the last few years. It’s not “hotter” except in the average. Who cares? The records go back 350 years so that’s 35 ten year periods. Why is 35 enough to have seen every possible natural variation? A random walk can produce a run of warm September’s, just as an unbiased dice can produce run of sixes. If I threw a dice 350 times and at one point had a run of say 5,6 6,5,4,6,5,4,6,4 it wouldn’t be at all remarkable.
‘1961-1990 standard model??? Why not 1991-2020?
Day after day of warm sunshine with just a little rain South Wales. Lovely month. Superb.
Whilst ‘nice’, warm Septembers play havoc with my summer pruning of Apple trees. The last bud left tends to burst, some even start to blossom – which means lost fruit the next year and a second round of pruning is required to get back to a dormant bud as the burst ones just rot over winter.
It’s just one climate disaster after another.
Why do you prune in September? I prune in winter for Apples and it never fails to produce a good crop….
Late summer pruning of new growth on apple trees restricts growth on trained fruit trees and encourages spur/fruit bud production and fruit ripening. Winter pruning is for major (re)formative pruning and encourages vigorous growth.
Very basic stuff.
Absolutely right MGN as I did a training course on summer fruit tree pruning at the beginning of last month and have the winter pruning course to come next January. If your trees are mature summer pruning is a must. Winter pruning is to reshape trees that have been neglected. This applies to any pip fruit tree. Stone fruits must be pruned in summer during dry spells to avoid disease.
BBC News Channel Saturday October 2nd at 7.30pm. Watch a special Climate Show…… I am sure it will be unmissable……..
What’s striking is the total absence of hot September days between 1960 and 2002 (at a guess). Over 40 years. If the hot days are caused by warm air being pulled up from the south, it suggests that didn’t happen during that period. Part of the AMO?
Note UAH for September is up to 0.25degs above 30 year mean. Disappointing. When will Ls Niña kick in?
It already is according to Allen McRae. He posted a link in a BTL post at WUWT showing La Nina 3-4 region now has a -0.6 measurement and that surface waters across the entire Pacific are cooler than average.
I would have thought 0.25 of a degree is well within 1 SD of the mean, so basically normal.
Looks like summer might be coming back for some after the current unsettled spell, more pleasantness, how will we cope?
https://twitter.com/SJJB55/status/1443908913611558915
Over on notrickszone Tokyo has had the coldest September in 30 years.
What? It’s almost as if if one place is a bit warmer than usual, another place is a bit colder. As if the energy in the atmosphere is unevenly distributed
Yes, certainly overnight temperatures have been mild, only just bought the horses in. September 2019 was very wet.