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Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years

October 12, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

 Yet another study gives the lie to the claim that hurricanes are getting worse because of climate change:

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

 

It is significant that all of the study’s authors are acknowledged to be leading experts on hurricanes, unlike the theoretical climate scientists who regularly claim that hurricanes are getting worse because their models and theory tells them so.

13 Comments
  1. October 12, 2021 11:33 am

    And even acknowledged hurricane experts still have to make some assumptions, e.g. what is the period of ‘multidecadal’, and that ‘greenhouse gas warming’ is a thing.

  2. Phoenix44 permalink
    October 12, 2021 12:01 pm

    The 95% range shows that for virtually all of the 20th century the major hurricanes have been worse than now. Tying to blame aerosols and other stuff for “hiding” climate change is absurd. Did they have to say that to get published or do they actually believe it?

  3. October 12, 2021 1:20 pm

    Internal variability has ‘masked’ greenhouse warming? That old chestnut isn’t cutting the mustard any more, if it ever did.

    Internal climate variability is a thing, whereas greenhouses in the atmosphere…not so much.

  4. Harry Passfield permalink
    October 12, 2021 1:27 pm

    I just caught the start of WATO where they were covering the government’s review into the Covid response. They wheeled out Jeremy Hunt who came up with a nugget: (paraphrased) ‘It’s as if scientists adopted a group-think attitude and were afraid to go against the prevailing orthodoxy’.
    I thought to myself, that’s exactly the opening line to any review of how CC has been followed.

    • Mack permalink
      October 12, 2021 2:25 pm

      Great point Harry. The MPs, in their report on the Covid debacle, stated, “We accept that it is difficult to challenge a widely held scientific consensus. But accountability in a democracy depends on elected decision makers taking advice, but (also) examining, questioning and challenging it before making their own decisions.’ Reflecting their new found zeal for critical thinking and honest enquiry, I wonder how many MPs have rigorously questioned the advice of the ‘Year Zero’ nutters in ‘consensus’ science before deciding to send us back to the Stone Age then?

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        October 12, 2021 3:42 pm

        But there was no widely held consensus on Covid. That in itself is a false claim. The trouble was, some voices were heard much more and much more loudly than others, the same as – initially at least – in climate science. The simple, basic fact about “science” is that without a long history of published research being replicated and reproduced and shown to be useful for forecasting accurately things, there is no “science” to follow. But politicians and the media love to trumpet “the latest research” as fact when in truth the latest research is far more likely to turn out to be false than older work that has stood up to various testing. And with covid politicians should have understood there were no experts, there was no science and pretty much everything was unknown.

  5. richard permalink
    October 12, 2021 1:40 pm

    Hurricanes-

    NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dyamics Laboratory (GFDL): “Leaders in Climate Model Development and Research.

    For about a decade (or even longer), GFDL has annually updated their statement on hurricanes and climate change. This excerpt from their 15 August 2019 update lists some of their negative findings about current hurricane activity.

    “We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero. In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.“-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic. …
    “The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s. …
    “While major hurricanes show more evidence of a rising trend from the late 1800s, the major hurricane data are considered even less reliable than the other two records in the early parts of the record. …
    “In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.“

  6. It doesn't add up... permalink
    October 12, 2021 2:09 pm

    It seems that wind farms are contributing to global stilling.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603171247.htm

    Expect Denmark and Germany to complain about UK farms upwind of theirs.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      October 12, 2021 4:02 pm

      Idau…..in a rather tongue-in-cheek comment to Phillip Bratby some years ago, I did wonder how long it might be before enough turbines could take a noticeable amount of energy out of the weather systems. Hmmm.

  7. It doesn't add up... permalink
    October 12, 2021 2:13 pm

    Tomorrow is the big day for Peter Ridd:

    October 7, 2021 by Peter Ridd, Organizer
    Dear All,
    The High Court decision will be handed down on Wednesday 13th October at 10 am. I’ll send an update shortly after the decision is made available on Wednesday.

  8. Cheshire Red permalink
    October 12, 2021 2:28 pm

    Sea level rise acceleration – Fail
    Hurricane intensity & frequency – Fail

    Warming Antarctica – Fail
    Collapsing Greenland – Fail
    Runaway warming theory – Fail

    Two more to file and forget alongside other recently exposed climate myths. Can’t help but make you wonder about the rest of their supporting claims to AGW.

  9. October 12, 2021 3:22 pm

    OT lib smear in today’s Telegraph Suzanne Moore article
    The trouble comes when people cannot tell the difference between facts and feelings and produce a whole world of “alternative facts” usually drawn from “deep research”
    – a couple of Youtube videos.
    Climate change denial depends on similar nonsense.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2021/10/12/cant-persuade-us-views-now-turning-thuggery/
    It’s outside the paywall so all is visible including the comments.
    .. Most of 968 are negative as it defends libmobs warriors Packham and J Vine
    smearing their opponents as “thugs”.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 12, 2021 3:36 pm

      It’s a back to front world! One of the real problems is that people like Moore simply have no idea that we lack real knowledge and understanding of the climate. There is far more that we don’t understand than we do, and far more that we can’t model properly than we can. Then they confuse models with facts and forecasts with reality. If only she did some research before insulting those who have a far better understanding of the problems with climate science.

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