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Little Progress On New Climate Targets For COP26

October 19, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

 

Carbon Action Tracker, the outfit who keep track of government climate targets and policies, have found that very little progress has been made in updating the 2030 targets agreed in Paris:

 

 

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The momentum on updating 2030 targets for climate action has stalled since May, with no major emitters putting forward stronger climate targets, and the 2030 emissions gap has barely changed, according to new analysis released today by the Climate Action Tracker.

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Only one country – The Gambia – is rating as having overall climate action that is consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5˚C warming limit according to the CAT’s newly-updated rating method.

“In May, after the Climate Leaders’ Summit and the Petersburg dialogue, we reported that there appeared to be good momentum with new climate action commitments, but governments then had only closed the emissions gap by up to 14 percent,” said Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner organisation.

“But since then, there has been little to no improvement: nothing is moving. Governments have now closed the gap by up to 15%, a minimal improvement since May. Anyone would think they have all the time in the world, when in fact the opposite is the case.”

The CAT has updated all of the country ratings under its new ratings system, launched today, where it now gives ratings on a wide range of actions: an overall rating, the domestic target, policies and action, fair share, climate mitigation finance (either on providing mitigation finance, or detailing what international support is needed), and land use and forestry (where relevant). The CAT has also begun rating net zero targets.

  • Of the 37, countries assessed by the CAT only one – The Gambia – is rated as having overall climate action that is 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible.
  • In another seven, overall climate action is nearly sufficient, meaning they are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, but could be with moderate improvements. Three countries, the EU, Germany and the US, have significantly updated their targets with a raft of new policies, and while the UK’s domestic target is 1.5˚C compatible, its policies and international support don’t match.
  • This leaves three quarters of the countries the CAT assesses with significant gaps in climate action.

“Of particular concern are Australia, Brazil, Indonesia Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Viet Nam: they have failed to lift ambition at all, submitting the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than those they put forward in 2015. These countries need to rethink their choice,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a CAT partner.

“The IPCC has given the world a ‘code red’ warning on the dangers of climate change reinforcing the urgent need for the world to halve emissions by 2030. An increasing number of people around the world are suffering from ever more severe and frequent impacts of climate change, yet government action continues to lag behind what is needed. While many governments have committed to net zero, without near-term action achieving net zero is virtually impossible,” said Hare.

On the policy front, coal remains an issue, with China and India both with huge coal pipelines. South East Asia is also of concern, with Indonesia, Viet Nam, Japan and South Korea still planning to forge ahead with the most polluting of fossil fuels.

Gas is still falsely being promoted as a “bridging fuel” and needs to be phased out as soon as possible, yet Australia, the world’s largest gas exporter, is still pouring cash into expanding gas. Even the EU still has plans to commit funding to new gas infrastructure.

“Gas is a fossil fuel, and any investment into gas today risks becoming a stranded asset. And while interest in green hydrogen has grown exponentially, there is still a large number of hydrogen projects in the pipeline where it’s produced from gas. Hydrogen produced from gas still produces carbon, and is inconsistent with reaching net zero,” said Hare.

CAT-Graph-EmissionsGaps2030-PNGMedium-2021.05

https://climateactiontracker.org/press/analysis-despite-code-red-on-climate-target-update-momentum-at-a-standstill/

 

In simple terms, even with the updated pledges made so far, global emissions are still expected to be at least as high in 2030 as they were at the time of the Paris Agreement.

Carbon Tracker say that emissions need to be cut by 50% by 2030 if we are to stay on course for 1.5C. Plainly this is pie in the sky stuff.

They cling to the rather naive belief that emissions will rapidly fall after 2030, with most countries close to Net Zero by 2050. But even they have cottoned onto the fact that most countries’ Net Zero goals are no more than political virtue signalling, with little practical input:

“There needs to be alignment between 2030 targets and net zero goals for the latter to be believable. Our assessment shows that most net zero targets are formulated vaguely and do not yet conform with good practice. Robust short-term targets and pathways towards achieving them are required to fully realise their ambition.”

The whole purpose of COP26 is to review and agree the updates to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), originally agreed at Paris. Given the lack of any real progress, the whole jamboree in Glasgow seems to be a complete waste of time.

38 Comments
  1. October 19, 2021 11:44 am

    The whole notion of a climate target is make-believe. As is that of ‘Climate Leaders’.

  2. Gary Gould permalink
    October 19, 2021 11:47 am

    I would also add at the end “… waste of time and money”

    • October 19, 2021 12:31 pm

      Who are paying for all this cr@p from the IPCC, including COP26? Is it not a complete waste?
      Gret-oid lies about climate emergency and the sufferings of people worldwide deserve to be ignored, totally. Yet people in GOVT and the gullible get worried.

      Why not disband the IPCC and indeed the whole U.N. by ending funding?
      Donald Trump could yet do it. Could it have any drawbacks?

      • Mad Mike permalink
        October 19, 2021 5:16 pm

        Weren’t the Chinese instrumental in setting up the IPCC with the help of Maurice Strong?

  3. Jack Broughton permalink
    October 19, 2021 11:55 am

    This fantasy report has a graph of CO2 output that ends in 2015: this is weird!
    More luvvy-luvvy reports appearing every day as the fanatics ramp-up the hype for COP 26, COP 27 etc. None of these asks to see any actual proven evidence of climate change, as the belief cannot be questioned.

  4. cookers52 permalink
    October 19, 2021 12:15 pm

    The gullible are handing out millions to those who promise to save the planet.

    Right on cue the snake oil salesmen have emerged to accept the cash.

    We then celebrate success!

    • Douglas Dragonfly permalink
      October 19, 2021 12:26 pm

      So snake oil is acceptable ?
      I believe you are correct but all this seems to be distraction politics. Designed for the chosen ones to obtain wealth and privilege while pretending to put out a fire that is in fact non existent.

  5. Mack permalink
    October 19, 2021 12:38 pm

    Well done Gambia. With a per capita GDP of @$800 what’s not to like? And, if we carry on suiciding our economy with even more green crap our current per capita GDP of @$41,000 will be just a long, distant memory. Who would of thought that the Flinstones was a socio-economic model and not a kid’s cartoon? And, is it me, or is Boris looking suspiciously like Barney Rubble these days? Yabbadabbadoo!

  6. Mike Jackson permalink
    October 19, 2021 12:58 pm

    “Anyone would think they have all the time in the world, when in fact the opposite is the case.”
    But we do have all the time in the world, Niklas! It’s you that is running out of time. The longer this farce keeps running the closer we get to the next downturn. I only hope I’m still around when this attack of Lysenko Syndrome finally gets its come-uppance!

    • October 20, 2021 8:37 am

      Which ‘fact’ was he claiming this time?

  7. Patsy Lacey permalink
    October 19, 2021 1:07 pm

    meanwhile 30,000 are descending on Glasgow completely oblivious of their carbon footprint. They’ve even coerced HMQ,and two gullible heirs to the throne to join the jamboree. What an absolute farce

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      October 19, 2021 4:18 pm

      Evil, not farcical.

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      October 20, 2021 11:52 am

      Oh, I’m sure they’ll all be offsetting their carbons, on expenses naturally.
      Plus, when you’re saving the planet, you’re allowed to do First Class Flights.

  8. Harry Passfield permalink
    October 19, 2021 1:08 pm

    I give in! BJ is no longer a Conservative; he has proclaimed his Green credentials and his green ambitions. In the news just now he is heard saying that, ‘Green is good! Green works!’

    • October 19, 2021 1:39 pm

      But the Friends of the Earth and Green Party say it is not enough – so it mus be too much.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 20, 2021 9:03 am

      If he believed what he says then why do we need a these regulations, laws and bans? Why do we need a Plan?

      How often have we heard politicians proclaim that what they want is right and good and better? And how often have they been right?

  9. Matelot 65 permalink
    October 19, 2021 1:13 pm

    So now is the time to freeze any more economy – wrecking actions by the two leading groups until the lower two lists play catch-up. Otherwise we are just giving work to the slackers….aren’t we?

  10. Ilma630 permalink
    October 19, 2021 1:20 pm

    The headline question over all this is still “Why?”. To date, no politician has given an evidence-based answer, i.e. data says, just a belief-based one, i.e. “scientists say”. What was the RS motto again?

    • John Hultquist permalink
      October 19, 2021 5:22 pm

      Relief Society: Motto – – “Charity never faileth”

      • John Hultquist permalink
        October 19, 2021 5:25 pm

        Or maybe this one:
        Nullius in verba

      • Ilma630 permalink
        October 19, 2021 6:12 pm

        (RS – Royal Society: ‘Nullius in verba’, or ‘take nobody’s word for it’)

  11. Harry Passfield permalink
    October 19, 2021 1:30 pm

    At long last BBC allow a sceptic voice on WATO to put the case against heat pumps! I particularly liked his analogy of where we would be if the government of the day had decided that only VHS recorders would be allowed and that everyone would have to buy one.

    It also occurred to me, is the government going to ban Calor gas? I can see a few years down the road cowboy plumbers plumbing in gas bottles to houses who don’t want ASHP.

  12. John Winward permalink
    October 19, 2021 1:31 pm

    Relieved to see my country of residence is Critically Insufficient.

    • Tim Leeney permalink
      October 19, 2021 3:17 pm

      How about insufficiently critical?

  13. Coeur de Lion permalink
    October 19, 2021 3:04 pm

    The only suffering in developing countries is a lack of electricity. Fix that and then the birthrate. Greta should be told

  14. ANH permalink
    October 19, 2021 3:46 pm

    As there is no need to reduce CO2 the lack of action is a good thing.

    • Ilma630 permalink
      October 19, 2021 4:03 pm

      The UK govt will still keep pressing to introduce Net-Zero/Zero-Carbon[SIC] policy though.

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      October 19, 2021 4:19 pm

      CO2 is still dangerously low. Would be better at 800 – 1000 ppm.

    • October 19, 2021 4:49 pm

      Latest wild ideas costing billions, trillions, whatever…

      Briefing: The Heat and Buildings Strategy
      Tuesday 19th October 2021 | Net Zero Watch
      https://www.netzerowatch.com/briefing-the-heat-and-buildings-strategy/

      You will obey!

      • Ilma630 permalink
        October 19, 2021 5:52 pm

        Have the ‘powers that be’ even thought of how much resource it would take to convert the nation’s domestic gas heated properties to heat pumps, e.g. 26m in say, 5 years? It’s going to take hundreds of thousands of fitters doing nothing else. Is that even physically possible?!

  15. October 19, 2021 5:00 pm

    There’s that word again, “ambition”. Which really means ruthless cuts in energy usage to satisfy an overcooked climate model cluelessly implemented by politicians who will either cause massive price increases on those who can least afford it or see energy suppliers go bankrupt through price controls. Either way its going to be a long cold winter.

  16. EppingBlogger permalink
    October 19, 2021 5:28 pm

    Don’t the compilers of the chgart realise Germany is in the EU?

  17. tom0mason permalink
    October 19, 2021 6:07 pm

    Despite “Code Red” on climate, target update momentum at a standstill therefore it will be upped to “Code Trotsky”, failing that then there are calls for a definitive move to “Code Stalin”!

    “Code Stalin” is when nations like Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland, and Vietnam (who have failed to lift their ambitions), may be marched to the gulag. Some of these nations my be rendered ‘inert’ by installing massive numbers of UN Peace Keepers, ‘UN approved NGOs’, ‘Agenda 2030’ facilitators and bureaucrats, along with audits, investigations, and reports by both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

    🙂

  18. TREVOR COLLINS permalink
    October 20, 2021 4:47 am

    greetings from New Zealand. 30000? will they all be issued with a CARBON TRACING CREDIT CARD?? FROM TREVOR

  19. M E permalink
    October 20, 2021 7:02 am

    Can anyone tell me if the Queen and the PM are required to be at places where heads of

    government who are invited to Britain are assembled , as a matter of Protocol…. It’s Diplomacy !!

    How many heads of government will be assembled for the photo opportunities? .. I haven’t been keeping up with the guest list. ( Can’t be bothered)
    Prince Charles and other family members would be expected to take up some of the burden of being pleasant to foreign dignitaries who warrant their carefully graded notice. A handshake here, a nod there, a pleasant smile to the group. Protocol will be in full force,..equerries everywhere. A Diplomatic event of the first order.

  20. tom0mason permalink
    October 20, 2021 8:46 am

    One of the funnier outcomes is EU & UEFA’S COP26 OWN GOAL as reported by Guido Fawkes (https://order-order.com/2021/10/18/eu-uefas-cop26-own-goal/ )

    Ursula von der Leyen launched a new campaign with UEFA ahead of COP26 to tackle climate change, arguing that “Team 🇪🇺 (Euro) is delivering with #EUGreenDeal”*. UEFA’s press office boasts:

    Football greats Luís Figo of Portugal, Italy’s Gianluigi Buffon and French duo Delphine and Estelle Cascarino turn on the skills for campaign ad that shows everyone has a role to play in defeating the environment’s toughest opponent.”

    Just one problem…

    As the FT’s EU correspondent points out, UEFA’s own tournament and team sponsors include Gazprom, Volkswagen and Qatar Airways. Perhaps if the EU want us to believe they’re serious about tackling climate change, they should put their money where their mouth is and tell UEFA to ditch these polluting sponsors. Guido won’t hold his breath…
    [my bold]

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 20, 2021 9:08 am

      And its main competition involves teams flying all over the continent on private jets! And expanding its competition ever eastwards so that teams are flying 3,000 miles to Kazakhstan! Plus of course the fans.

      So a poorish family can’t fly to the sun once a year and actually useful business people can’t fly on business but millionaire footballers can fly every week to play a game.

  21. Phoenix44 permalink
    October 20, 2021 9:00 am

    I love the “even the EU”!

    The same people with the same predictable responses and beliefs doing nothing g jobs on huge salaries probably paid by governments.

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