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Crop Failures & The “Climate Disaster”

October 26, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

We looked at this phony Guardian report the other day:

 

 image

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/oct/14/climate-change-happening-now-stats-graphs-maps-cop26

One section deals with what it calls crop failure:

image 

It claims that once-a-decade droughts are becoming more frequent, in comparison with 1850-1900! This apparently comes from the IPCC, but who was counting droughts in the 19thC?

As with disaster databases, it is only in recent years that organisations have been set up to monitor humanitarian crises and provide aid. A hundred years ago, there was no internet, television or mobile phones to relay the news.

A famine in Madagascar would simply have happened with being noticed.

The Guardian then goes on to “prove” its point, by cherry picking droughts in Guatemala and Zambia, as if they had never happened before. They are not even in the same year!

 

image

 

The dip in agricultural production in Guatemala is evident in 2017, but the trend for both countries is remorselessly up.

 

chart

https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

If there was any truth in the Guardian’s apocalyptic version of events, we would see global food production staggering from one crisis to another.

But we don’t.

chart-1

 

The Guardian reckons that India and Pakistan will be particularly badly hit by crop failures, even in this decade:

 

image

But this goes totally opposite to what is actually happening there.

 chart-2

 

And long term monsoon trends clearly show that droughts are not becoming more severe or common in India, global warming or not. Most droughts are, in fact, associated with El Ninos, and not climate change:

https://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Monsoon/frameindex.html

30 Comments
  1. Bloke down the pub permalink
    October 26, 2021 11:54 am

    ‘Most droughts are, in fact, associated with El Ninos, and not climate change:

    As I recall, it was actually study of the droughts in India and their accompanying famines that first lead to study of the global nature of the ENSO cycle.

  2. Dr Ken Pollock permalink
    October 26, 2021 12:00 pm

    On a CPS conference, I have just asked Lord Deben (Chairman of the Climate Change Committee) what would happen if we don’t reach net zero by 2050. His answer mentioned Bangla Desh – many people live below sea level, so he implied, were at risk through the climate catastrophe. He did not mention 1. a similar % in Holland live below sea level – and are not worried and 2. sea level is rising about 1 foot per century. Not exactly urgent…Apparently those living close to the equator are most affected by the impending catastrophe. Maybe he should look at Paul’s statistics. Not much sign of danger there…

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      October 27, 2021 1:22 pm

      True Ken – Bangladesh is not threatened by the rising seas of an imaginary climate crisis and Lord Deben should honor the facts, not voodoo science. Urbanization , overpopulation and land subsidence are more pressing problems and Bangladesh’s delta is actually expanding as Himalayan river sediments replenish the coastal areas . This process has continued for centuries ” adding nearly 20 square kilometers a year ” according to morphologist Maminul Haque Sarkar . Sea level in the Bay of Bengal is rising at a rate of 1.3mm/yr ,considerably below the global average. The most catastrophic Bengal floods and cyclonic marine transgressions occurred in the 1980’s , the 1970’s and a spate in the 19th century when atmospheric carbon dioxide was much lower.

      ” Comparison of Landsat images taken in 1984 and 2007 showed a net land gain of 451 km2 in the Meghna estuary within that period …….[The ] historical evidence of large scale net annual land gains in the Meghna estuary suggests that land gain might exceed land loss resulting from the slow rates of sea level rise projected for the 21st century ”

      Sources : appinsys.com/globalwarming/Bangladesh.htm

      wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/24/bangladesh-the-deep-delta-blues/

  3. John Peter permalink
    October 26, 2021 12:09 pm

    ‘A famine in Madagascar would simply have happened with being noticed.’

    without being noticed?

    • Tim Leeney permalink
      October 26, 2021 12:16 pm

      Maybe “without being reported” would be better?

    • M E permalink
      October 26, 2021 8:52 pm

      Cables were used to convey business messages to Cable Offices until recently. Boys were employed to deliver them to offices in the City of London in the 1950s to my personal knowledge.
      There were cables laid in the 19thC. across oceans as far as India. North America and Australia.probably South America.
      Telegrams conveyed messages across landed areas. They were swift and private and could not be intercepted.

  4. William Birch permalink
    October 26, 2021 12:27 pm

    It good to read the Guardian on line as i don’t have to pay for the propaganda they purport to be news whilst being able to see fully their Fabian Globalist agenda. Thanks Paul for once again highlighting the crude misinformation that they persist in spreading.

    • Harry Davidson permalink
      October 26, 2021 12:43 pm

      But it has become steadily less interesting, less accurate, more shrill since Rusbridger left. Not that it was much cop with him in charge. These days I rarely manage to get past the first third of an article before the constant stream of inaccuracy becomes too much for me.

  5. richard permalink
    October 26, 2021 12:37 pm

    The never seem to mention the huge tracts of land taken out of agriculture use for bio fuels.

  6. richard permalink
    October 26, 2021 12:40 pm

    and once again the graphs illustrate that deaths from droughts have declined by over 80% since the 1930s as the world’s population has increased- https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters

  7. Chris Davie permalink
    October 26, 2021 12:49 pm

    I find it curious that after many millions of years during which huge variation in climate occurred (as seen in the geologic record), a species comes along that has the capability to measure those variations, albeit over only a very short period, and immediately comes to the conclusion that it alone is responsible for those variations!

    • October 26, 2021 1:44 pm

      To the guardianistas, everything ‘climate’ is unprecedented. A tad of history education would not go amiss, but, for example, reading Tony Heller’s site (https://realclimatescience.com/) to get some historical context would explode their brains though.

      • StephenP permalink
        October 26, 2021 2:29 pm

        What is it that the guardianistas would like to happen, and what do they think should be done about it?
        I get the feeling that they consider themselves to be part of the elite who would not have to submit to any changes in lifestyle.

      • Chris Davie permalink
        October 26, 2021 3:34 pm

        The Guardinista objective appears to be a comprehensive redistribution of wealth!

    • Crowcatcher permalink
      October 26, 2021 4:53 pm

      Plus the arrogance of believing that we are a species so very special that we should never be subject to any sort of natural change and forgetting that the Universe doesn’t care one little bit about our existence.

  8. Malcolm Bell permalink
    October 26, 2021 2:35 pm

    Does no one remember the year with no summer in much of Europe – 1816 – in which huge numbers starved? Nothing has been seen quite like it since.

    • October 26, 2021 2:57 pm

      Perhaps someone (Tony Heller?) could produce a comprehensive timeline of major weather/climate events over the centuries and the corresponding agricultural outcomes.

  9. mervhob permalink
    October 26, 2021 2:52 pm

    I fully agree with Chris Davie, the geological record shows that levels of CO2 were 8 times higher at the commencement of the Carboniferous. This persisted for 54 million years with no sign of a ‘tipping point’, other than that when the plants had eaten up the the excess CO2 and deposited their remain in anerobic conditions so it could not be returned to the atmosphere. At the end of this process, the CO2 levels were similar to today and the planet became much colder and drier. Oxygen levels were 35%, much higher than today, so giant insects fluorished and the risk of wildfire was much higher. Current human use of fossil fuel has only used a tiny proportion of the total quantity laid down, but CO2 is being used as a scapegoat for other forms of human activity – such as concreting over the planet, cutting down the trees that saved us in the Carboniferous, pumping out cubic miles of groundwater and pouring it on hot deserts and dumping vast quantites of waste, both human and industrial all over the planet. All these actions must have an effect on weather and its distribution over the planet. However, the crude, ‘steady state’ computer simulations, based on ‘forcings’ and ‘feedbacks’, created by some very limited mathematicians, are predicated on a singular a priori cause. That is not a credible way to predict the future!

    • Chris Davie permalink
      October 26, 2021 4:02 pm

      Some would say that of course these models are credible – they have been produced using some of the most powerful computers available! Of course, they do depend a little on certain assumptions as to how all those variables might interact in the future. So no basis for subjective bias then!

      • mervhob permalink
        October 26, 2021 8:49 pm

        Chris, all attempts to predict the future using linear algebra are doomed to failure, from Claudius Ptolemy onwards. There is no difference between computer software and linear algebra in practice – both are based on assumed algorithmic properites around an equals sign. When we try to apply such methods to natural systems that are highly non-linear, the model and reality will diverge. It took nearly 1500 years to discover the flaws in Ptolemy’s reasoning – by then the discrepancies were obvious and the model was improved by Kepler and Newton to include some real physics. But Newton could not solve the three-body problem and complained that the theory of the moon’s motion, ‘made his head ache’. Some French mathematicians, rather than attempting to resolve the problems Newton highlighted, replaced them with a system in which the problem’s were less likely – linear algebra. Programming such a system to run faster and faster on a computer does not improve the nature of the mathematical assumptions used – we can improve the accuracy by successive approximation but in the long term, the result will diverge from physical reality. There is no analytical (algebraic) solution to problems which have a high degree of non-linearity and however small the degree of approximation, the higher the number of variables, the sooner it will diverge.
        So, assuming that bigger and faster computers will improve the prediction accuracy is a fools paradise. What we need is better physical understanding of how the variables interact – and better mathematics!

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 26, 2021 5:44 pm

      There is no credible way to predict the future using models, unless that future is highly linear and we fully understand the mechanisms. Complex systems with non-linear processes that we hardly understand at all cannot be modelled in anyway that makes sense whatsoever. This is undeniable – no modeller would say it was possible. That so many continue to produce their climate models despite that is somewhat of mystery, Presumably some claim to understand the processes but we clearly do not and even then we are faced with complex and non-linear calculations that will deviate from reality almost immediately.

      Again, this is pretty much accepted outside of climate (and Covid) modelling.

      • October 26, 2021 6:04 pm

        Linear or predictably cyclic?

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        October 26, 2021 10:21 pm

        I very doubt if there’s a single cycle and if there are multiple cycles that they have the same period. And I doubt if its all simply cyclical anyway as there’s a large range of potential variables that seem essentially random.

        Abovcdhich makes starting conditions for ang model nigh on impossible too.

  10. Noel Roberts permalink
    October 26, 2021 3:42 pm

    A few years ago on TV, Attenborough went back to Madagascar to film again after 50 years. He found that the population has from 7 million to 20 million and 60% of the forest had gone. The population is now 27 million. Surely the problem here is not a climate one but a Malthusian one.

    • October 26, 2021 5:41 pm

      The problem is man made, but not a man made climate one. Did anyone see the Amazon Grand Tour (ex-Top Gear) program from Madagascar? The problem is a lack of development to protect them from the natural climate, e.g. to keep access routes open, and development can only happen with cheap, reliable energy for both transport and industry/commerce, the very thing those at COP26 etc. (inc. World Bank) want to ban.

  11. 2hmp permalink
    October 26, 2021 4:35 pm

    Paul Ehrlich said in 1970 that the planet would be unable to feed itself in the year 2000. He =must have ben a contributor to the Guardian.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      October 27, 2021 12:44 am

      What I remember was that he said in 1966 was that “the world couldn’t support a population of two & a half million”. Followed up by a prediction in 1968 or 69 about cannibals roaming the Mid West (of the USA) in 1975. He could well have predicted doom at later stages and I believe he still says so. His predictions are in line with those of The Club of Rome, the UN and the IPCC, not one have come true. But he is still believed by people like Attenborough and Gates.

      And the 1966 utterance I heard personally at a talk he gave at my University.

  12. Phoenix44 permalink
    October 26, 2021 5:37 pm

    Let’s do the numbers. Fifty years, once a decade average is five droughts. 1.7 a decade would have been 8.5. These are very, very small numbers to be claiming any kind of relevance from. Let’s say for example that there were droughts in 1849 and 1901, and already the unaffected munver would be 7 instead of five simply by increasing the reference period by 4%. The the difference between 7 and 8.5 is unlikely to signify anything. A running fifty year average might show something, but if it is highly correlated to El Ninos then we need to understand what is driving those rather than any purported correlation with temperature.

    This is why I remain sceptical. The “research” is so flakey. Very few claims actually stand up to much digging in the numbers.

  13. October 26, 2021 6:13 pm

    Weather.

    But Ii prefer referring to all this as either weather cycles, or weather patterns.

    Been here – done that.

  14. M E permalink
    October 26, 2021 9:09 pm

    With reference to news of climate a hundred years ago. That is only 1920s! There were cables laid across oceans in the 19thC and information to the City of London was available where financial interests were located. Other big cities like Liverpool where transatlantic shipping was of interest. So droughts were of interest and typhoons hurricanes floods were all known to the merchants and traders. They may not have been of interest to the Victorian newspapers where they were relegated to short reports in the business sections.
    https://www.company-histories.com/Cable-and-Wireless-plc-Company-History.html

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