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No Wind Friday

December 17, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

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High pressure is settling in now for at least the next week, not only in the UK but also over much of NW Europe.

Hardly surprising then that wind power has disappeared to virtually nothing here, just 0.62 GW:

 

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https://grid.iamkate.com/

 

We are now dangerously reliant on interconnectors, not least because wind power is also falling in countries like Germany and Denmark:

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In Germany, demand is currently running at 70 GW, leaving a shortfall of 10 GW with generation at 60 GW.

Poland, France and Spain have little to spare, which means that the rest of Europe is largely dependent on Norway and Sweden, which together have a surplus of 13 GW.

Given that this surplus all comes from hydro and nuclear (Sweden), there will be no easy way to increase this when the demand for it inevitable arises.

45 Comments
  1. subseaeng permalink
    December 17, 2021 3:34 pm

    The UK as a whole will only wake up to this when the lights (and everything else) goes off for significant periods during the winter. Throw another log on the wood burner and light another candle!

  2. Joe Public permalink
    December 17, 2021 3:46 pm

    Piss-poor solar performance too. From a million installations rated at a total of 13GW.

    • Curious George permalink
      December 17, 2021 4:20 pm

      He promised a Saudi Arabia of wind, not solar.

  3. George Herraghty permalink
    December 17, 2021 3:50 pm

    A short, simple presentation for Boris, the BBC and the Deluded:
    The Impossibility of Windmills, including hydrogen conversion, by Jan Smelik, an expert, Dutch engineer who actually does know what he is talking about:
    The impossibility of wind power in a very visual and graphic way —

    • jimlemaistre permalink
      December 17, 2021 4:24 pm

      Thank you George for this Video and to you Paul for keeping the truth Front and Center.

      Bringing the TRUTH forward about the ‘Fairy Tails’ of ‘Greening’ the world is long overdue !
      This video should be a must see for every sensible soul ! Sadly Common Sense, Logic and Scientific Acumen are not widely distributed among members of ‘The Big Green Propaganda Machine’ or among our Political Elite or their advisors. Public sentiment rules.

      To add a little more . . . Windmills are the Ultimate in embedded costs and Environmental Destruction. Each one weighs 1,688 tons (the equivalent of 23 houses) and they contain 1,300 tons of concrete, 295 tons of steel (Concrete and Steel = 15 % Global CO2) 48 tons of iron, 24 tons of fiberglass, and the hard to extract rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Each blade weighs 81,000 pounds and will last 15 to 20 years, at which time it must be replaced. We cannot recycle used blades.

      There may be a place for these technologies, but we must look beyond the myth of zero emissions. I predict EVs and windmills will be abandoned once the embedded environmental costs of making them replacing them and operating them become apparent to all.

      We all need to do our part with these comments, this video and some common sense.

      We must all be Exposing ‘The Embedded Costs’ of Going Green. Learn respect for OHM’s Law and power losses as HEAT from generation, transmission and storage of Electricity.

      https://www.academia.edu/64085546/Electric_Cars_The_Untold_Story_

  4. Joe Public permalink
    December 17, 2021 3:51 pm

    LCP Energy report:

    “High wholesale and balancing prices set to continue into the next week (day-ahead prices over £1400/MWh today).

    The STOR market also clearing at all-time-high prices, as the high opportunity cost of not participating in wholesale and balancing drives up ancillary market prices.”

  5. Broadlands permalink
    December 17, 2021 3:55 pm

    There is no shortage of wind and hot air coming from the green protestors. Maybe when it gets real cold and the biofuel shortages keep fuel prices up, they might get the message that being green doesn’t do much but destroy property and block progress.

    • Joe Public permalink
      December 17, 2021 6:15 pm

      “There is no shortage of wind and hot air coming from the green protestors.”

      Oh today there is, their silence is deafening! 😉

      • James Neill permalink
        December 17, 2021 6:19 pm

        What about Parliament?

  6. December 17, 2021 4:03 pm

    Chickens and roost comes to mind. It is the result of about 20 years of dysfunctional governments. It has taken that long for successive politicians to ruin the most important infrastructure in the country.

  7. December 17, 2021 4:11 pm

    So, all the environmental terrorists promoting this travesty, won’t be able to heat their homes, turn on their lights, or charge their cars. Boris will be delighted that you’ll have to stay at home and remain in the dark.

    When will the world realize that just 2% of the atmosphere is CO2 and 0.12% of that is man-made? The sane retake the world, PDQ.

    • Peter F Gill permalink
      December 17, 2021 4:34 pm

      No jchr12, the figure is closer to 0.04% and for reasons that would take a lot of explanation mankind’s contribution can be safely neglected but just to make it clear it is a lot less than the figure you quote.

      • jimlemaistre permalink
        December 17, 2021 4:44 pm

        You are correct Mr. Gill 0.04 % and furthermore . . .

        M. Ragheb in Global Climate Variation, Change and Energy Use, 2019 on pages 16 and 17, he spells out clearly the natural sources of CO2 and man’s contribution. Of the 186 billion tones of CO2 entering the atmosphere annually, 180 billion tones come from nature and 6 billion tones are man’s contribution. My simple math says 6 divided by 186 is 3%. He did not do this calculation in his text.

        The IPCC in its own research produces a similar finding in a published graph “Global Natural and Anthropogenic Sources and Absorption of Greenhouse Gasses in the 1990’s”, finding, CO2 from natural causes is 793 billion tones, Man-Made sources is 23 billion tones. 23 divided by 793 is 2.9%. Again, no calculations are presented for summary or review.

        This ratio of Natural CO2 versus Man-Made CO2 is never brought forward mathematically, in context, in any discussions of the causes for Climate Change.

        From . . . https://www.academia.edu/49537285/Climate_Change_A_fresh_Perspective

      • Peter F Gill permalink
        December 17, 2021 5:04 pm

        The simple calculation is simply wrong for reasons to do with Henry’s Law. The full calculation is complicated and time dependent. Not the place for a detailed discussion here.

      • jimlemaistre permalink
        December 17, 2021 5:19 pm

        My comment suggested 3 % is added by Humans to the 0.04 % of the CO2 in the Atmosphere . . . 0.0012 %. Nature produces the rest.

  8. Peter F Gill permalink
    December 17, 2021 4:31 pm

    I wonder where the figures are for all those non-publicised diesel generators are? If in “other” they can hardy come to the rescue. How about agreed turn offs by industry limiting total demand to circa 40GW? In round number terms we are at more than Pareto 80:20 for conventional/Renewables. It is currently nearer 90% (sum of CCGT, Nuclear, Interconnectors, Coal, Pumped storage and Hydro) 10% (sum of bad joke Biofuel, Wind and solar). All this and we are in a warm air mass for the current anticyclone.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      December 17, 2021 6:12 pm

      Most of them are connected at distribution level networks as embedded generation, and thus they are seen as demand reduction, not generation, in the same way as embedded wind and solar from the point of view of the grid. It’s another of those sweet little lies. But it also means we get a misleading impression of spare capacity.

      • Peter F Gill permalink
        December 17, 2021 7:46 pm

        Thanks for the clarification. Any idea of the total GW available from the diesel kits?

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      December 19, 2021 8:10 pm

      Hi Peter, as IDAU points out these diesel generators are connected to the lower voltage distribution networks. Though the are not clearly visible they can be indirectly seen. The link below is for UK Power Networks ( the Distribution Network Operator for the south east excluding London i.e. the old SEEBoard area) and also for my area sun station of Canterbury North.
      https://dsodashboard.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/d/jnTAkg7Gz/ukpn-dso-dashboard-grid-supply-areas?orgId=1&var-GSP=CANTERBURY%20NORTH&refresh=15m
      Scroll down and it will show details of the connected generators and current output. This particular site is unusual as it has Offshore wind (Kentish Flats) connected whilst most other offshore wind is grid connected. You can navigate around this site for the other main sun stations.
      Another fascinating link is this one that you can zoom in to the cabling network right down to small transformers up on “H” poles.
      https://openinframap.org/#2/26/12

      • Peter F Gill permalink
        December 20, 2021 10:11 am

        Thanks Ray. Interestingly UK Power Networks is owned by the Chinese. Gives one a warm sense of security. Funnily enough there is a small transformer on an H pole right next to some land we own which is not shown on you second link. It is good to know that not all information useful to those who may wish to disrupt our power supplies is readily available. Regards Peter

  9. Alastair Dodwell permalink
    December 17, 2021 4:43 pm

    Cant be good that in mid December – heading to the shortest day of the year and Solar is producing more power than Wind. Not good at all.

  10. John Hultquist permalink
    December 17, 2021 5:38 pm

    https://www.radar-live.com/p/atmospheric-pressure.html

    Have a look.

  11. Chaswarnertoo permalink
    December 17, 2021 6:29 pm

    Well, nobody ever saw this coming and warned the morons….

  12. Nicholas Lewis permalink
    December 17, 2021 7:21 pm

    No need to worry Dutch have fired up their coal to make sure out lights don’t go out.

  13. miket permalink
    December 17, 2021 7:44 pm

    Interesting to see that, at the time Paul has shown, Coal is providing 3 times as much power as Wind. I wonder what answer Greens have for that?

  14. Gamecock permalink
    December 17, 2021 8:30 pm

    But . . . but we were told, “It’s always windy somewhere.”

      • Sobaken permalink
        December 18, 2021 3:26 pm

        Thinking about it, building a 50 GW power line from Britain to the Philippines is probably still more practical, in terms of material and labour cost as well as energy losses, than using battery storage or power to gas.
        Not that any of the three solutions (to the self-inflicted problem of reliance on wind) will ever be implemented.

    • Peter F Gill permalink
      December 17, 2021 9:52 pm

      Yes, Don Swifthook used to argue this all the time. Of course it required lots of long range interconnectors. I was not convinced.

  15. December 17, 2021 10:31 pm

    I have a problem with the way those numbers are presented
    although I agree with the conclusions.

    I am not expecting to see GW cos that is not a proper metric for power outputtted
    I expecting to see GWh
    to say what was the total power output was.

    I suppose GW could have been used either to say that was the average over an hour
    or if it’ a snapshot for what was happening for a specific second
    but they way gusts on an off I expect the next minute could be a different figure.

    • December 18, 2021 8:30 am

      Stew,
      the importance of GW is a measure of balance of supply to demand, which essentially is what frequency is.
      Adding hours gives a measure of longer term performance, but frequency is the most important figure for if supply is lower than demand to an extent it exceeds 0.5Hz from nominal then power goes of to some area, how large the area is depends on many factors often not controllable.

      You mention wind gusting, wind generator output is a cube law to wind speed which, in such conditions,gives an unstable output. Not a big problem when wind output is low, but harder to control in situations of low demand and high gusty wind.

  16. Willem Post permalink
    December 17, 2021 10:42 pm

    This is a great article that illustrates the utter futility of using wind turbines to power modern economies.

    This has been predicted by energy systems analysts for decades, but, no one listened, until recently.

    Idiots in Brussels want to cut themselves off from cheap Russian gas, sign no long term contracts with Russia, etc., not allow the use of Nordstream2.

    The idiocy of it all is off the charts.

  17. Ray Sanders permalink
    December 17, 2021 10:45 pm

    I’ve got a really good idea, why don’t Germany shut down 8.11GW of reliable nuclear power?
    What could possibly go wrong?

  18. 1saveenergy permalink
    December 17, 2021 11:55 pm

    I’m alright Jack !!!
    We’ve got a gen-set, 1,000 liters of fuel & a mains/gen changeover switch, plus oil/gas & solid heating.

  19. cookers52 permalink
    December 18, 2021 12:10 am

    My immediate thoughts are who is controlling this and what demand forecasting are they using..

    We are not in the EU.

  20. John Peter permalink
    December 18, 2021 8:25 am

    The enquiry into the daft events last Xmas in Downing Street should be replaced with a time limited enquiry about how we got to where we are and how we get back out of the looming energy crisis.

  21. Phoenix44 permalink
    December 18, 2021 9:31 am

    Most importantly it’s not clear that even a very large increase in wind capacity would produce much increase in generation. If demand increases by 25% with a shift away from gas and petrol, we will be utterly buggered.

    • Peter F Gill permalink
      December 18, 2021 11:40 am

      @Phoenix44: Your use of technical terms may confuse people. Maybe, for the layman, you could have put “left in the cold with no means of transport other than self propulsion”. However, for those of us conversant with technical terms I agree that your use of just two words conveys the thought precisely.

    • Gamecock permalink
      December 18, 2021 12:09 pm

      It’s a trick. “Capacity” for windmills is the ability to extract energy from the wind. Though it sounds the same as the capacity of a coal/gas plant, it is not. Indeed, the capacity of a windmill has as much to do with where it is placed* than with how it is made.

      “The energy is in the wind, not in the windmill.”

      *All the good spots are already taken.

  22. steve permalink
    December 18, 2021 12:23 pm

    Currently wind is producing 3% of UK power needs !!!,
    Coal is 4%, Gas 56% Nuclear 14%. Interconnectors producing 16% !!!!

  23. Cheshire Red permalink
    December 18, 2021 5:30 pm

    Telegraph carrying an article on this subject.

    Logical, reasoned and informed BTL comments are absolutely slaughtering ‘renewables’, which is encouraging.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/18/lack-wind-sparks-new-fears-green-energy-revolution/

    PS I have a sub’ – if you run this article I can copy the whole article for everyone.

    • jimlemaistre permalink
      December 18, 2021 6:28 pm

      Loved the article . . . The comments that followed were a Hoot !!

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