Sir James “Make It Up As You Go Along” Bevan
By Paul Homewood
Sir James “It’s The Climate Stupid” Bevan has been up to his tricks again!
It is an honour to speak to an organisation as prestigious and historic as the Royal Society. So historic that some would argue than when it was founded in 1660, we were in a previous epoch – the Holocene – to the one we are in now, the Anthropocene.
New epochs don’t come around that often. The Holocene began more than 11,000 years ago after the last glacial period and saw the dawn of human civilisation. Before that the Pleistocene lasted for 2.5 million years. It saw both major climate change and a massive extinction of life forms: those two facts are connected.
The Anthropocene – the epoch which started when humans first began to have a significant impact on Earth’s climate, geology and ecosystems – is itself a much-contested concept. There’s a live debate about when it started. Some argue that we should go as far back as 10,000 or so years to the shift from hunter-gatherers to settled farmers. Others say the Anthropocene truly began about 250 years ago with the industrial revolution, as the western world’s new fossil fuel-powered economy began to drive up global temperatures. And there are those who prefer to wait until the 1950s, when the acceleration of fossil fuel use, deforestation, ocean acidification, urbanisation, industrial-scale agriculture, habitat destruction, species extinction and wide-scale natural resource extraction made it finally incontestable that we had now significantly modified our planet. But whenever the Anthropocene did start, what no-one seriously contests is that we’re in it now.
He starts by discussing the “Anthropocene”, a concept that most serious scientists think is a joke.
He then goes to simply make up his own “facts” about what the impacts of a changing climate are::
The impacts of the changing climate
We are seeing that change in the climate already.
Temperatures are rising. The 21st century has so far been warmer overall than any of the previous three centuries. The UK’s top 10 warmest years since records began have all occurred since 2002. Those rising temperatures are causing rising sea levels as glaciers and the ice caps melt. And they are causing more extreme weather, including more violent, frequent and longer lasting rainfalls, droughts, fires, flooding and coastal erosion.
In England, three of the five wettest winters on record have happened in the last eight years. In the last decade our winters have been 12% wetter than they were in the three decades from 1961 to 1990. In the storms of 2020 and early 2021, water levels on many of our major rivers smashed previous records. Which is why on 16 February 2021, the Environment Agency had more flood warnings in force (594) across the country than ever before. Meanwhile in other parts of the world this summer we’ve seen further violent weather, with catastrophic flooding in Germany that killed some 200 people, deadly Hurricane Ida in America and devastating wildfires in Siberia, Canada, Greece and the United States.
Drought risk is rising
Climate change is also increasing drought risk, the subject of our debate today.
In England, May 2020 was the driest on record The Environment Agency’s estimate is that summer rainfall is expected to decrease by approximately 15% by the 2050s in England, and by up to 22% by the 2080s; and that by 2100 in the south-east we will increasingly see temperatures above 35°C, and sometimes 40°C.
Hotter drier summers and less predictable rainfall – two effects of a changing climate – plus over-abstraction of water for industry, agriculture and the public water supply as the population grows, is a toxic combination.
It means that if we don’t take action, by 2050 the amount of water available in England could be reduced by up to 15%; that some rivers will have up to 80% less water in summer; and that we will need around 3.4 billion extra litres of water a day to meet the needs of people, industry and agriculture. Welcome to drought risk in the Anthropocene, UK-style.
We can safely ignore the nonsense about extreme weather, something which even the IPCC have been unable to identify. But let’s take a closer look at his specific claims for England:
In England, three of the five wettest winters on record have happened in the last eight years. In the last decade our winters have been 12% wetter than they were in the three decades from 1961 to 1990. In the storms of 2020 and early 2021, water levels on many of our major rivers smashed previous records. Which is why on 16 February 2021, the Environment Agency had more flood warnings in force (594) across the country than ever before.
His claim that three of the five wettest winters on record have happened in the last eight years simply is not true. According to the Met Office, only one of the five has occurred recently, that was in 2013/14. The other four occurred in:
1876/77
1914/15
1989/90
1994/95
Moreover, the 10-year averages are no higher now than in earlier periods, notably the 1910s and 20s, and 1990s. The 1961-90 period, used by Bevan for comparison, was an unusually dry interval.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/England.txt
He also claims record numbers of flood warnings. But this simply reflects modern EA working practices, just as “record river levels” have more to do with concreting over of natural drainage systems than climate change.
He then goes on to discussing summer droughts:
Climate change is also increasing drought risk, the subject of our debate today.
In England, May 2020 was the driest on record The Environment Agency’s estimate is that summer rainfall is expected to decrease by approximately 15% by the 2050s in England, and by up to 22% by the 2080s; and that by 2100 in the south-east we will increasingly see temperatures above 35°C, and sometimes 40°C.
Quite what one month, May 2020, tells us about “climate” is beyond my simple mind. May 1895 and 1896 were virtually as dry, and overall it is evident that there is no trend in May rainfall:
But what about summer as a whole? Far from getting drier as he claims, English summers are wetter now than in the 1970s to 90s.
He also claims that summer rainfall is “less predictable”. This is an absurd comment, even by James Bevan standards. As the Met Office chart below shows, English summers have always swung from very wet to very dry. The idea that the Met Office has ever been able to predict summer weather in advance is ridiculous.
How on earth the head of the Environment Agency can keep getting away with making up facts to suit himself is a mystery.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Isn’t fact free post-modern science wonderful.
No data? No problem – Just use Mr Babbage’s magic prediction machine
What are Sir James Bevan’s scientific credentials?
None, from his CV. A degree in Social Anthropology does not really cut it
“There’s a live debate about when it started.” “But whenever the Anthropocene did start, what no-one seriously contests is that we’re in it now.”
This is utter, utter bollocks!
I’m in a couple of geoscientists’ forums and simply nobody on these believes that the Anthropocene has any scientific basis or credibility at all. True, there are a small number virtue-signalling geoscientists (usually in the public arenas and thus with career axes to grind) who do claim to believe in this in public but the idea that this particular piece of “science” is somehow “settled” is highly misleading, delusional rubbish.
A couple of years ago the international union for stratigraphy, which classifies geological time, agreed that we’re now in the Maghalyan (spelling may well be wrong). This is named after a region of India from which a cave stalactite was recovered and studied. This revealed that the current time period is one of overall modest cooling that began roughly 4,200 B.C. and despite overall cooling shows fairly brief periods of warming e.g. the Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warming and current slight warming.
I’ve filled in their survey at uK.Gov, not that it will make any difference
Two points. The term “anthropocene”, like the term “global heating”, was invented to promote the idea that something new and urgent is happening, namely a climate emergency caused by mankind. It has no rational basis whatsoever. Secondly, I am going to guess that Sir James’ speech originated as a draft by a relatively junior member of staff who looked only for examples to strengthen an agreed line. As the draft passed up the chain the bias was amplified until all objectivity was lost. How else could Sir James ignore March 2013 (coldest for maybe 100 years), record number of night frosts, some very harsh, in April 2021, a cold, wet May in 2021, snowy and cold January 2010, exceptionally cold December 2010 – in fact 2010 as a whole – all in the 21st century? Before we know it he will be telling us that our children will never see snow!
Without historical ‘Context’ any statement can be shown ‘correct’.
Cold . . . The Nile froze in 829 . . . the Black Sea (a Salt Lake) in 800 and 801 AD . . . (Pidwirny, 2006).
How Cold was That ?? Average day time temps at this time of year in the Nile Delta average 23 degrees . . . Ya wanna talk about Cold . . . look at history !!
How on earth the head of the Environment Agency can keep getting away with making up facts to suit himself is a mystery.
Having his own climate ‘facts’ is a vital part of having his own climate opinions, as with all alarmists.
…plus, his salary!
Bevan is a classic case of – what ex-forces personnel on here will recognise – ‘bullshit baffles brains! He runs off such a whole list of ‘things’, it’s difficult to know where to start. But, if we start at the beginning with his argument for declaring – without the authority of the relevant authority – that we are in the Anthropocene because ‘climate change’: he goes on to say:
So, if there was ‘climate change’ in the past why aren’t those eras named? Especially as ‘those two facts’ are only ‘connected’ by coincidence. If you’re going to talk physics you need proof. But then, the only proof he probably understands is a Macallan cask strength.
Sir James Bevan, a former career diplomat, would appear to be merely another example of the type of bought and paid for ‘civil service shill’ parachuted into organisations such as the EA to do his political masters’ bidding. This speech clearly demonstrates his weapons grade ignorance of a subject in which, given his status, the humble man in the street would, normally, presume he might have some professional expertise or practical experience. Which, of course, is the intended impression. ‘Oh look, the head of the EA says we’re in climageddon and it’s all our fault so it must be true. Let’s buy a heat pump and help change the weather……’
A classic example of the intellectual corruption demonstrated by ‘The Blob’. It’s no wonder that a) he couldn’t hold down a job in the income generating part of the economy and b) why this country is in such a shit state. But never mind, he’s a good chap and one of ‘Us’ so let’s give him a gong
Yep.
During WW2 Goering famously said that if you could persuade someone that a fiction was a fact by constant debate, for two months; whatever documentary, or newsreel evidence was seen or any other evidence to the contrary, would be disbelieved.
I had such a discussion last night with family members it ended with them being totally unconvinced that it was a hoax. ‘
To paraphrase: ‘They are experts, you are not!’
The German people were repeatedly told that the Jews were bad for Germany and for national security were being re-settled in their own communities, that would be mutually beneficial both to the Jews and non-Jewish people.
German citizens had to be taken to see the gas chambers, concentration camps, the starved survivors and mass burial sites for themselves before they accepted the gruesome and barbaric truth!
Perceived climate change, will be much worse than the Holocaust, if anyone, disagrees, consider this?
The West is refusing to use fossil fuels any more than is absolutely necessary, nuclear is also not an option. Meanwhile, Putin controls the gas supplies to Europe, has an alliance with China and is about to annex most of Eastern Europe. China is re-arming and will undoubtedly invade Taiwan and then to add insult to injury, is building 50+ coal-fired power stations!
A moron could see which way this is heading, but apparently Western governments cannot. The situation is identical to the rise of the Nazis, annexation of sovereign states and countries on the flimsiest of motives. An increase in members of their armed forces, completes what is obvious!
Andrew
About to annex most of eastern Europe. No he’s not. Where do you get that from? What do you call most of eastern Europe?
Ah, the old ‘experts’ routine. The counter is to ask was it not experts who said that thalidomide was safe for pregnant women to take. Did experts also not say that diesel cars were better than petrol cars. Yes, I know there is whole argument over diesels and particulates but in this case it is something they will know about and you are dealing with simple folk with no depth of understanding. And to wrap up you can agree that indeed you might not be an ‘expert’ and why would they listen to someone who has nothing financial to gain from this over somebody who makes money from the scam.
Sooo True !
Of course the Royal Society has now been taken over by the non-scientific greenblob.
At one point in this speech article, I stopped reading because it was too much of the usual wild alarmism junk but I decided to read a bit more by skimming it. And lo and behold, there it was……water
I have a simplistic view of communism. It is a system where a government agency decides what is available. Another agency decides what is needed by which group. A third agency decides what will be made available to whom. Then make it work to their satisfaction. Don’t even think about questioning the process or even seriously trying to understand it or you will very much regret it.
So this guy I have never heard of before but seems to head a very important and powerful government agency claiming to have the full weight of the government behind him starts talking about water.
He says his agency has already made great progress on determining how much water is and will be available in the U.K. It also is well into the process assessing which groups need how much water. Apparently, they are now beginning to put into place the controls necessary to manage existing water supplies and access to them under this approach and have laid out the plans to regulate all current and future sources.
It seems that he feels the Soviet system of separate agencies handling the process was just too transparent and insists that all the functions of managing the the nation’s entire economic output as well as the water supply should be under his control. Importantly, anyone who doubts his wisdom is evil whether out of malice or ignorance so don’t even think about examining the entire proposition.
Good read. Sure glad I don’t and never will live in the U.K. Which is something I never, ever thought I would say.
All water is local. Remote government cannot handle water.
Millions will die.
Communism is just great – on paper.
Anthropocene ? – doesn’t he mean Ineptocene
Maybe Sir James can pontificate on this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59800032
US snowstorms: California and other western states battered
Every downside has an upside:
“One benefit of the storms in California will be to replenish the Sierra snowpack. It accounts for about 30% of California’s fresh water supply and had been at dangerously low levels after weeks of dry weather.
The state’s department of water resources reported on Christmas Eve that the snowpack was now between 114% and 137% of normal ranges, with more snow expected to fall.”
No doubt this has been caused by excess CO2 in the atmosphere.
But, but, US Govt says California is in a mega-drought! So their computers are saying there is no snow. And if the computer says so it must be true!
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
CA mega-drought latest…
US snowstorms: California and other western states battered
Published 29 minutes ago
Almost 30in (76cm) of snow fell in California over a 24-hour period ending Sunday morning, causing road closures, including a 70-mile (112km) stretch of Interstate 80 into Nevada.
Avalanche warnings are in effect across six states.
Over the weekend, southern California was hit by rainstorms, which saw power lines snap and streets flooded.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59800032
I’ve been just north of LA since mid December and have yet to put on a T-Shirt and have been watching the rain most days. There was one day where it rained heavily all day long and they are still talking about the drought. I’ve looked at the 10 day forecasts for here and Canterbury, where I live, and they are very similar. It’s weather and it changes. Thats all.
This guy is soooo far out of date. We moved into the Anthopocene 8,000 years ago, and we moved to the Adjustocene 40 years ago. I expect us to move into the Idiocene in the next few years. Watch ‘Idiocracy’, it’s where we’re headed (use FF, it’s not that funny, just prescient)
The cene is just moving faster and faster, due to Climate Breakdown. And no FFS, it’s not Global Heating, we’ve moved on to Climate Breakdown! Keep up!
Idiocracy is one of my favourite films, whilst full of rather crass American humour, it certainly appears that given its time set we are definantly heading that way! I understand it didn’t make mainstrean cinema due to its critical views on American corporations.
I can’t find any reference to his qualifications. Since he used to be a diplomat, I assume he has no scientific qualifications or experience.
Also, I wonder if he is related to Aneurin Bevan?
BA Honours in Social Anthropology from Sussex
No wonder he speaks such garbage about matters scientific
Sir David King the former Chief Scientific Advisor talked as much nonsense and annoyed probably more people despite having scientific credentials.
Thanks for the info. Social Anthropology not particularly relevant to environmental science, and certainly not to climate change, which is basically physics.
If you want to read about “The Anthropocene” go to WUWT and search for it.
David Middleton and others have put up many posts.
This Bevan character must be a fool, or has a way to make money from his speeches.
I think what is really shocking, is that this pseudoscientific bullshit was presented A) by the chief exec of the Environment Agency and B) at the Royal Society.
https://pin.it/3U5EWwf
Perhaps the diplomat’s junior staff should have shown him the temperature charts over the past 2000 years and explained how the Vikings set off the warming and cooling during the mediaeval warm period followed by the little ice age and how the Victorians hastened the present warming while CO2 was low. The present Hot Air Period does seem to be increasing.
I viewed some of The Perfect Planet – the bit on the weather – recently and Sir David Attenborough said much the same nonsense. It doesn’t take much to get him “banging the drum”. Nor did it stop Sir David King from sprouting nonsense, like Sir James, so it looks like becoming a knight is a symptom.
And in my small list of Climate Change© predictions I notice warnings in 1970 and 1971 from different scientists about water will be rationed by 1974. Also a series of warnings by Tim Flannery about various parts of Australia (Sydney, Perth, Adelaide) running out of water e.g. Adelaide being abandoned by 2009 and Perth by 2010. The dams in Sydney, which were never going to fill again are discharging excess water at present.
Its one of several favourite predictions being recycled by DimWits.
Well, in South Africa, SOME dams are running dry – especially the ones that weren’t built because some favoured contractor ended up stealing the money. Most of the other remaining dams have refilled from their ‘historic’ low levels – mainly because it’s the rainy season! Weather is cyclic!
It is time the BBC thought police got involved.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-59452614
Wow . . . scary stuff . . .
Australia 2021.
Perth, Western Australian capital, had its hottest Christmas Day on record.
Darwin, Northern Territory capital, had its coldest Christmas Day on record.
Climate changer????
iggie:
Perth BOM records are a mess, with changes in the location of the station. The original was, I believe, in Kings Park a large park with lots of greenery on a peninsula exposed to the mouth of the Swan river (quite wide at that place). So any figures from that time wouldn’t include an Urban Heat Island effect, nor the modern (instantaneous) instruments.
They were in a burst of hot weather with winds coming from the NE hot inland (not at all unprecedented).
Sat. Dec. 25 max. 42.8℃
Sun.Dec 26 max. 43.5℃
Mon.Dec 27 max. 35℃
Darwin was being lashed by a tropical storm, fortunately not a hurricane as originally hyped up by the BOM. Fairly common up there about Christmas time and since 1974 (which flattened most of the town) there are better building regulations. (Darwin was also flattened by hurricanes in 1938 and the late 1890’s, also (before its name change) in the 1850’s). Proof? that the weather is changing?
Graeme
If you haven’t already come across this, it’s a good analysis of WA weather, etc here.
https://www.waclimate.net/perth-bom-history.html
The idea the models can predict the volume of water in individual rivers in 2050 is a delusion of the highest order. It is simply fantasy, complete and utter fantasy.
It’s embarrassing really.
More hot air and stupidity from a mere government bureaucrat.
I’m SO disappointed. He didn’t mention the gnashing of teeth in his nightmarish scenario!!