Heatwave temperature threshold raised in England by Met Office
By Paul Homewood
Have the clowns at the Met Office nothing better to do with their time?
Forecasters have raised the temperature at which a heatwave is declared in several areas of England.
The Met Office defines a heatwave as when an area experiences daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding a certain level for three days in a row.
Eight counties have had these limits raised by the forecaster by 1C.
Announcing the change, experts said climate data showed "undeniable warming" in the UK accompanying increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
The new limits are:
- 28C (82F) in Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire
- 27C (81F) in Lincolnshire
- and 26C (79F) in the East Riding of Yorkshire
What defines a heatwave is linked to historical climate data. The UK has been experiencing rising average temperatures in recent years as a result of global warming.
Previous thresholds used data from 1981 to 2010, but the new limits are based on the period between 1991 and 2020, the Met Office said.
‘More frequent heatwaves’
The Met Office’s heatwave thresholds vary in the UK between 25C to 28C, with London previously the only area to have a limit of 28C.
Most South East counties have a threshold of 27C, while many central areas have a threshold of 26C.
The rest of England, as well as all of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland still fall under a 25C threshold.
Dr Mark McCarthy, head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre – the body which manages the UK’s climate records – said climate statistics over time have revealed an "undeniable warming trend for the UK".
"Temperature rise has been greatest across parts of central and eastern England where they have increased by more than 1.0C in some locations, while further north areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland have seen temperatures rise by closer to 0.7C," he added.
Dr McCarthy said while heatwaves are "extreme weather events", scientific research that "climate change is making these events more likely".
The scientist explained a 2018 Met Office study showed that heatwaves are 30 times more likely to occur now than in 1750, because of higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60908169
So, at a stroke, we will now have fewer heatwaves because the Met Office has upped the threshold.
For some reason, they also think it news that summer temperatures are slightly higher now than during the Little Ice Age! And why no mention of the fact that we have fewer extreme cold spells of weather?
The whole concept of a “heatwave” is in any event meaningless. If 28C means a heatwave in Surrey, why does Yorkshire have one when the temperature reaches 26C?
There is the usual attempt to grossly deceive the public about death tolls:
“In the summer of 2019 there was an increase in deaths when the UK experienced a heatwave, with a record temperature of 38.7C that July.”
As I reported last year, the death toll in the summer of 2019 was much smaller than any other season. Moreover, summer deaths as a proportion of annual deaths was less in both 2019 and the hotter summer of 2018 than in most other summers of the last decade:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/07/20/bob-wards-fake-claims-of-heatwave-deaths/
It is not clear whether the above statement comes from the Met Office or the BBC. But if it is the former, the Met Office should be thoroughly ashamed of propagating this lie.
Despite the Met Office’s attempts to scare the public, the boring reality is that our summers are turning into Mediterranean ones:
https://www.ecad.eu/utils/showindices.php?7i2tp35metlup39dagohkc971i
And I am sure most of the public would much prefer a nice, sunny summer to the cold, wet one we had to endure in 2012. That is why they will continue to ignore the Met Office’s heatwave warnings.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
TBH, I’ve never really thought before of what constitutes a “heatwave”. A heatwave sounds unwanted and perhaps dangerous but 3 consecutive days of 28C sounds like good weather to me and what many of us fly off to the Med to experience them, so it doesn’t sound like the general population would be too concerned. The Met and the BBC will create dramatic headlines about it of course.
Yes. 28°C and “heat” reminds me of the record snow in Antarctica during their last “heat” wave.
When I lived and worked in Cairo through the 1990s official heat wave warnings were issued at 35 degrees C.
In West Virginia, we call that a nice day. Now if you are in South Carolina, you might have some pretty high humidity as a mitigating circumstance.
We go to Greece every year to “chill out” in the sun, regularly mid 30s during the day. We have experienced some really hot temperatures. 37Deg C at 2300 in Rethymnon a few years back.
“…what consitutes a “heatwave”…”
Originally, when even schoolboys knew that most weather comes to a locality by courtesy of travelling masses of air, the term was written “heat wave” and meant the following:
“An extensive slow-moving air mass at a relatively high temperature.”
(Presumably, “relative” to the air being pushed away.)
It should have been left at that; but the meaning has been “extended” to the imprecise:
“A continuous spell of abnormally hot weather.”
Enter the Meterological Office, with its arbitrary numbers and pompous pronouncements.
(Definitions from Collins Dictionary.)
Of course they have nothing better to do. Being funded by taxpayers they feel they have to do something. Issuing fatuous and inaccurate press releases is something so that’s what they do. They can then claim that’ve done something to justify their ludicrous salaries and gold plated pensions. How much money would we save if the Met Office had to raise all its funds on a commercial basis I wonder ….
These experts seem to get everywhere. Are these the same experts who advised our useless government and civil service for the past two years?
Only past two years?????
More than likely the same, having no idea about immunology is the same to them as having no idea about climate. After all, a humanties degree means you don’t have to remember all that factual stuff. You can just spout opinionated nonsense and nobody can challenge you.
Expert: ex means “has been” and spurt is a drip under pressure
Anybody who has spent all their life in the UK, with its temperate climate, has no idea what real heat and real cold are. I welcome a heatwave, but it seems we will be getting fewer of them. Bring on some real warming.
“Despite the Met Office’s attempts to scare the public, the boring reality is that our summers are turning into Mediterranean ones:”
Not the Mediterranean I know!
Surely this is ‘good’ news? The Met will be announcing FEWER ‘official’ heat waves.
Fewer opportunities for HOTTEST EVAH rubbish?
PHEWER! WOT A SCORCHA! ‘s you mean?
@Cookers52
Not the UK Summers I’ve been experiencing either
Has the MET shot itself in the foot without realising it? Raising the threshold will mean that it can be claimed in future that heatwaves have decreased unless the climate obliges with hotter days. Something that it seems very reluctant to do.
Reinforcing the narrative, part of the on-going “nudges” to keep “global warming” in the public mind. It’s policy, like naming storms. If there were no constant narrative, public belief in AGW would be difficult to maintain.
That’s why they shifted the emphasis to “climate change” instead of global warming. No matter what happens they will be right. AGW CO2 is the problem…the control knob.
For balance our local paper warns “Weather experts are expecting wintry showers to hit Suffolk and north Essex later this week with a chance of snowfall across the region.”
Global warming or Global cooling? I know it’s just weather just like the last few warm days were.
“The UK has been experiencing rising average temperatures in recent years as a result of global warming”
There has been no increase in trends of maximum, minimum or mean temperatures in the UK for at least 23 years 4 months. Their statement is a lie.
https://www.weather-research.com/weather-and-climate
As with dealing with the cold, dealing with heat is mostly a matter of preparation and appropriate behaviour. The good folk of Alice Springs in Oz have no problem in dealing with temperatures of 40C and more, without dropping like flies. They expect such temperatures and deal with them.
Hola NeilC,
Being a very recent subscriber to “not a lot of people know that” I was so relieved to read your your very detailed link to” weather research.com”
I have , for many years, never belived the buncum emmitting from the “scientists” starting from the debunked Anglian Universities’ forecast of doom and gloom.
What I am really finding hard to get my head around is, “what is to be gained by all those who are spending the false messages.”
One, I suppose, is the billions in subsidies given to the windmill builders which are very inefficient, unreliable and only provide about 10% of the UK’s needs.
Another puzzle is,” why have so many of the “intelligencia” have climbed on board the band wagon”.
I hope I can still be around to see all the egg and all the faces of this cultist movement.
Britain and the U.S. are the only effective barriers to One World Government. Climate Change is a tool to destroy their economies, ending their resistance. It is working well in UK. Progress has been slow in the U.S., but the current Idiotinchief supports it.
“Intelligencia” have climbed on board the band wagon” because they support One World Government. Some know Climate Change is phony, but they all like the effect of getting people to accept their own demise. The Left cynically embraces any cause that will further their agenda. Their hearts aren’t into any of their causes; causes are merely tools to exploit.
Peterson’s Dictum: “If you can’t figure out what someone is doing, or why, look at the outcome. And infer the motivation. If it produces mayhem, perhaps it was aiming at mayhem.”
Thank you for the dictum! Most appropriate
What chance do we have of getting this lie recognised as such and being formally withdrawn? Net Zero?!!
“undeniable warming” in the UK accompanying increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Most so-called greenhouse gas is water vapour, as they well know. ‘Accompanying’ doesn’t mean anything in terms of causation.
I arrived in Southampton in 2019 from New York where it was around 105F and humid. Most people find that humidity is the main reason for discomfort. Arizona hot and dry at 110F is livable in the shade. It was certainly pleasantly hot during my stay in the UK. So it is all relative regarding heat.
Just starting from 1981? I suppose that makes sure that they exclude the long hot summer of 1976 then!
Forecast for my corner of Surrey on Thursday morning is for snow! Oh, well…there were 2 weeks in April last year when it snowed and for 3 weeks we had blossom destroying frosts.
Growing up in Sussex in the 1950s, we had summer nights so hot you could not sleep, gorse fires on the South Downs, peat fires all over the Weald. Apart from 1976, I cannot recall any summer as hot as that over recent decades. I note from Paul’s graph that there is only 0.5degC difference with respect to those hot summers of the late 1950s. Hardly evidence of run-away climate change…..
Posted this elsewhere earlier today.
On the pages of the BBC website there is an article on why the Met. Office are changing their definition of a heatwave by raising the limit by 1C.
The change, they say, is because climate data showed “undeniable warming” in the UK accompanying increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Claims that warming is ‘accelerating’ are not justified by data, at least not in Britain.
The Met’s own figures for CET temperatures show that for the last ten years the annual average temperature has shown nothing but normal variations. In fact, far from there being an ‘undeniable warming’ temperatures have gone from a high of 11.03C in 2014 to a low of 10.1 last year.
Yet more climate change scaremongering.
We were at Edinburgh railway station last Wednesday afternoon awaiting the late arrival of our connecting train to Aberdeen, when the display board gave the reason: “Delayed due to a speed restriction because of high track temperatures”. The outside temperature that afternoon was about 17 degs C. Scotrail apparently have their own definition of a heatwave!!
That would be one of the empty trains which have been belting up and down past our door to Aberdeen for the last 2 or more years.
This is especially so on the Dundee to Arbroath shuttle which runs every 40 minutes – mainly empty – all day at a taxpayer subsidised rate of £40 million last I heard.
Perhaps if the Met.Office intended to use only a selection of non UHI sites,then a Temp. recorded as a heat wave may have some slight relevance.But as it is,if and when they record a heat wave temp. value,it will be totally meaningless.Heathrow or Cambridge come to mind.