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BBC Blame Global Warming For India’s (Not Unusual) Heatwave

May 18, 2022
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood

 

 

The BBC’s Climate Check this month homes in on the Indian heatwave:

 

 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/61483012

 

As usual, there are the weasel words, “Scientists believe climate change is making heatwaves worse”.

Ben Rich tells us that the heatwave started early this year in the Delhi region, with supposedly the hottest April in Central and NW India, and makes big play of that so-called Delhi record temperature this week, which we now know is fake.

He also mentions this Met Office study:

 

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/southern-asian-heatwave-attribution-study-2022

So let’s start by looking at Spring temperatures in Delhi, at Safjardun, which is classified by the Indian Met Dept as it “Base Station” in Delhi, ie their most reliable, high quality, long running site.

 

image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_IN022021900_15_0_1/station.txt

We obviously don’t know how this year will turn out, but March/April are already over a degree down on 2010. It seems extremely unlikely that May 2022 will be hotter than May 2010 either, certainly not by enough to beat the 2010 spring numbers.

But regardless of this year, the long term spring temperatures at Delhi clearly don’t support the Met Office’s claim that climate change made the 2010 heatwave more likely. That year was clearly an outlier, and otherwise there is no trend at all to Springs becoming hotter. Probably the opposite in fact; the run of hot springs in 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943 and 1953 have not been repeated since.

What we do know about this year is that April’s temperatures in Delhi were only the fifth highest since 1931, behind 2010, 1941, 1948 and 1952. It also ties with April 1973, so it is in no way exceptional, or part of any trend.

image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_IN022021900_15_0_1/station.txt

And that “record” in Delhi?

 

 

 image

 

As we know, the temperature at Safdarjun peaked at 45.6C this week, well below the record of 47.2C set in 1944. Temperatures of 45C and over are not uncommon there. In 1944, for instance, there were five such days, and the following year there were eight. In the last thirty years, there have been 48 days.

According to Weather Underground, that temperature of 45.6C on Sunday is the only one so far to top 45C (113F):

image

In other words, the BBC is making a big play of what is just the sort of regular heatwave in India that comes along every few years.

A lot of the BBC’s climate propaganda is designed to take advantage of the public’s lack of knowledge. To most people, understandably, temperatures of 114F must seem unnatural, something they simply cannot comprehend. They are only too ready to believe the lie that global warming is responsible.

17 Comments
  1. Brian Smith permalink
    May 18, 2022 6:41 pm

    I imagine you’ve made the usual complaint in expectation of the usual response?

    Have you ever complained to Ofcom about the BBC’s climate/weather reporting?

  2. May 18, 2022 7:32 pm

    A Met Office Attribution Study means using an unvalidated computer model with various assumptions to get the answer the MO wants – I.e. it’s worse than we previously thought – send us more money and a bigger computer.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      May 18, 2022 8:23 pm

      Phillip: I heard Rowlatt on R4 this morning extolling the virtues of the MO’s report and the fact that it was based on MODEL input. Being a NON-sceptical ‘journalist’ (ha-ha!) he never questioned the report being based, not on data, but on scientivist’s computer models – and their totally non-biased assumptions. /s

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      May 18, 2022 9:23 pm

      It’s modeling Begging the Question. Nothing more than that/

  3. Sean Galbally permalink
    May 18, 2022 7:47 pm

    The BBC is a left wing / woke biased organisation and they admit it. That is the main reason for abolishing the licence fee. It does not fulfil its charter.

  4. Broadlands permalink
    May 18, 2022 7:58 pm

    “The chances of a record-breaking heatwave in north-west India and Pakistan has been made over 100 times more likely because of climate change says a Met Office study”

    Climates are always changing. The Met Office knows that but is trying to avoid attribution…calling it global warming. That is supposedly the result of our use of carbon for energy to make our lives better. Making our lives worse by taking away our carbon fuels to reach zero emissions by 2050 seems to be their preference? More money won’t help.

    • Gamecock permalink
      May 19, 2022 11:49 am

      “Climates are always changing.”

      Name one that has changed in the last 100 years.

      Weather changes; climates don’t.

  5. Frank permalink
    May 18, 2022 9:00 pm

    Maybe there is another complaint here against Rowlatt?
    The BBC Today programme had two broadcasts today 18th May one at about 6.45am and one at 8.08am with justin Rowlatt.
    The below is taken verbatim off the recording of the items.

    BBC Today Programme 18th May 2022 had two items. Broadcast 1. 6.45am Martha Carney “The Met Office have said that heat waves in South Asia have been made
    100 times more likely because of climate change. Temperatures that have been predicted to occur once every three hundred years could now be experienced
    three times a decade. People in the region are currently experiencing very hot weather as our Climate editor Justin Rowlatt now reports”
    JR ‘Dozens of people have reportedly died of heat stroke in Pakistan and India as a heat wave has raised temperatures to 51 celsius in some areas, and more
    record breaking heat is expected into the weekend. This kind of extreme weather has been made far more likely in the region by climate change, the UK Met
    Office says. Without human induced climate change, a heat wave like the record breaking one in 2010, would happen roughly once every three hundred years
    it says, but with todays climate we could see one every three years. If climate change follows what the Met Office believes is the most likely path, the region will
    be experiencing severe heat waves almost every year, the study found.’

    Broadcast 2. 8.08am MC “Dozens of people are thought to have died in a heatwave in India and Pakistan, as temperatures have risen to 51 celsius in places.
    The UK Met Office says that this kind of extreme weather has been made more than 100 times more likely because of climate change.
    We can talk to Justin Rowlatt BBC our Climate Editor. Hello Justin, tell us more about this research.” JC ‘What the Met Office have done is they have looked back
    to a record breaking heat wave that happened in April/May 2010 and the combined temperatures in those months was the hottest it had been since 1900. So
    they used that as a kind of benchmark for record breaking heat waves, and then they used computer models to look at how likely the impact of climate change
    had on the probability of events like that happening. and what they found was that if you strip out the human inputs on the climate, then events like that would
    happen probably once every 312 years, but in the current climate, the climate we have created by pumping greenhouse gases and so forth into the atmosphere,
    they are more likely to happen once every three years, and they also looked at if you look at forecasts of how they expect climate change to put graphs to the
    end of the century they found that India and Pakistan should expect heat waves like that record one in 2010, every single year. So a really clear signature of
    climate change on the events we are seeing in India now.’ MC “And if climate change does follow the way the Met Office are predicting it what kind of temperatures
    can Pakistan and India expect in the future.?” JC ‘Well the benchmark of course is that 2010 heat wave so we are talking about temperatures very similar to
    what India and Pakistan are seeingright now. and as you say in Jokavatobad in Pakistan 51 degrees celsius, on Saturday New Delhi the Capital saw temperatures
    over the weekend of 49.2 degrees centigrade. These are really extraordinary and frankly unliveable temperatures, and now once every three years, and by the
    end of the Century every single year, India and Pakistan can expect temperatures this high. This is a really dire warning of how the climate is changing right now’

    • dennisambler permalink
      May 18, 2022 11:53 pm

      “Temperatures that have been predicted to occur once every three hundred years could now be experienced three times a decade.”

      This is the same lack of understanding and knowledge they have when talking about flooding:

      https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/100-year-flood

      “The term “100-year flood” is used in an attempt to simplify the definition of a flood that statistically has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year. Likewise, the term “100-year storm” is used to define a rainfall event that statistically has this same 1-percent chance of occurring. In other words, over the course of 1 million years, these events would be expected to occur 10,000 times. But, just because it rained 10 inches in one day last year doesn’t mean it can’t rain 10 inches in one day again this year..”

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        May 19, 2022 9:19 am

        Exactly. Three times in 100 years doesn’t mean once every 33 years. The three times might occur in 3 consecutive years but not for another 97 years. If you are trying to see if 100 year events have become more frequent you need hundreds of years of data.

        It’s basic stuff. If I throw a dice hundreds of times, I will get a run of sixes at some point.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      May 19, 2022 9:31 am

      The Met Office are simply modeling their assumptions, then claiming the models proves their assumptions are right. It’s totally circular. The problem they are having is that these heatwaves have happened before. So now they have to claim they are happening more often. But that’s actually impossible to prove by one event or over a short time period (3-5 years). So instead we get the model saying its going to happen once a year. Utter junk.

  6. Phoenix44 permalink
    May 18, 2022 9:14 pm

    “The chances of a record-breaking heatwave in north-west India and Pakistan has been made over 100 times more likely because of climate change says a Met Office study.”

    What does that even mean? And what does it happening prove? If it happened 3 times in 5 years that might prove something, but once proves literally nothing. This is junk, utter and total junk.

  7. May 18, 2022 9:40 pm

    Attribution science is junk, simple coin tossing sheds some light. I could concoct a theory that something (global warming perhaps) is making coin tosses biased, it doesn’t matter which way. Even a tiny bias would make long enough sequences of either heads or tails much more likely, whichever one you want.

    All you have to do is wait for a long enough sequence of the one you claim is becoming more likely, then ahah, the bias makes this 100 times more likely.

  8. Graeme No.3 permalink
    May 18, 2022 11:27 pm

    By accident this morning I saw the ABC news (National for Australia) and they claimed that the last 5 years (presumably worldwide) had been the hottest ever. Utter garbage for locals who have been talking about mild summers for the past 2 years; but we have an election going on with frantic efforts to persuade voters to back Nett Zero A.S.A.P. by one side of the spectrum (and we all know which side the ABC is on).

  9. Jack Broughton permalink
    May 18, 2022 11:53 pm

    The ITV “news” had the same junk science: why are they all so scared of having someone on who questions their “science” and who is controlling / financing the pseudo-science?

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