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Bank of England used false data and discredited scenarios to exaggerate climate costs

May 26, 2022

By Paul Homewood


Net Zero Watch calls on the Bank of England to withdraw its discredited climate stress test report:






London, 26 May – Net Zero Watch has called on the Bank of England to withdraw it latest climate stress test report as critics expose the bank’s use of false data and discredited scenarios.

Experts have criticised the Bank of England’s (BOE) climate stress test for adopting discredited projections of a global temperature change of 3.3C by 2050. This BOE projection far exceeds the IPCC’s SSP5-8.5 scenario – an extreme scenario which in itself is generally regarded to be extremely unlikely.

The BOE projects a baseline scenario of a global temperature change of 3.3C for 2050 – far above the IPP’s worst case scenario (see red star outlier in the annotated IPCC scenarios chart).

By using the most extreme and most unlikely scenario the Bank of England has grossly distorted the cost estimates for climate impacts in the next 30 years.

The BOE cites a study by Knutson et al. 2020 in its projections for tropical cyclones, but mispresents its findings: The BOE erroneously claims that the “global frequency of very intense tropical cyclones (category 4–5 storms) that tend to drive property damage is also projected to increase.”

As Prof Roger Pielke Jr. has pointed out, the study the BOE uses in its projections for tropical cyclones (Knutson et al. 2020) comes to the very different conclusion: “In summary, author opinion was divided on whether the global frequency of very intense (e.g., category 4–5) TCs will increase or not.”

The BOE claims that up to 7% of insured UK houses may be uninsurable by 2050 because of increased flood risk. But there is absolutely no evidence for this dramatic rise in uninsurable houses, merely what participants from the insurance industry think might happen. In reality, the number of homes damaged by flooding each year is numbered in the thousands, even in a bad year.

The BOE also claims that general insurers will suffer higher claims for wind-related damage. However this runs counter to UK Met Office data which shows that storms in the UK have been declining in strength since the 1990s.

Met Office: State of the UK Climate 2020, Fig. 40

Net Zero Watch director Benny Peiser said:

According to empirical data published by MunichRe and the World Bank losses from climate and weather-related events have been falling significantly as a percentage of GDP in the last 30 years, despite a rise in global temperatures.
The Bank of England’s climate stress test is fatally flawed. Unless it is withdrawn the bank’s reputation and credibility will be severely damaged.”

  1. May 26, 2022 10:37 am

    BoE is playing the climate propaganda game for financial reasons it won’t be explaining in public.

  2. Robert Christopher permalink
    May 26, 2022 10:52 am

    Either the Bank of England is being subversive or it is taking the graph at face value.

    When the bill is in the trillions, and will greatly affect everyone, simply accepting the projection, ignoring all dissent, is naive in the extreme.

    I’m going for the former, especially on the evidence generated by similar operations, and a dearth of competent, independently minded Scientists and Engineers involved with any of these scams.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      May 26, 2022 11:10 am

      Robert, I doubt it is about the science. As ever with these ‘elites’ it’s all about the money to be made.

  3. Mack permalink
    May 26, 2022 11:56 am

    I dare say that the Governor of the Bank of England (along with the bosses of all of the other major western central banks), used similar flawed data to come to the conclusion that massive quantitive easing alongside subverting investment in reliable energy providers would only result in ‘transitory’ inflation when the wheels came off. The ‘Weimar’ award for economic prudence will shortly be adorning the desk of a certain Andrew Bailey in Threadneedle Street methinks.

  4. Cheshire Red permalink
    May 26, 2022 12:26 pm

    Paul, no doubt you will’ve seen the HSBC exec’ giving his recent climate change risk speech, for which he’s been suspended.

    How about you take his points a step further and collate on one post all the pertinent graphs, to show there’s no climate crisis whatsoever?

    Global T in absolute form over past 100 years.
    Weather and climate mortality rates.
    Life expectancy.
    Child mortality.
    Crop yields, including per acre yields.
    Poverty and wealth rates.
    Inequality rates.
    Sea level rise rates.
    Global sea ice extent.
    Arctic and Antarctic T’s.
    Any others as req’d.

    The point is alarmists howl at these metrics but unless they’re damaging to humans, and they’re not due to endless adaption and innovation, then ‘climate change’ is rendered moot.

    We’re losing the battle of facts over alarmists propaganda.

  5. Gerry, England permalink
    May 26, 2022 12:37 pm

    You would have thought the climate stupidity would have stopped now that the greenie incompetent Mark Carney has gone. Seems we have another incompetent at the helm who has completely failed to get a grip on cheap money supply and now just shrugs his shoulders about controlling inflation.

  6. jimlemaistre permalink
    May 26, 2022 2:01 pm

    Blessings to ‘NetZero Watch’ . . . may they thrive and Prosper. Environmentalist Propaganda has gained such a broad based foothold in society it is almost laughable, until we realize how deep and how broadly it has been swallowed. Is our climate changing?. . . Yes. Is this unusual? . . . NO. between 350 BC and the year 100, planet Earth experienced even greater extremes. As it did from 950 to1350. History . . . Not magic . . . NOT denialism . . . Fact !

    My thoughts . . .

  7. Penda100 permalink
    May 26, 2022 2:33 pm

    So the BoE that is unable to give an accurate forecast of inflation in 1 or 2 years time (and that is something that it supposedly knows something about) but is confident about global average temperatures in 30 or 70 years time – something that it knows diddly-squat about.

    • jimlemaistre permalink
      May 26, 2022 3:18 pm

      Well said !

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