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Hurricane Activity Close To Lowest On Record In Last Year

May 30, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

 

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https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1530266767141965824?mc_cid=0d96a9d0ee&mc_eid=4961da7cb1

Meanwhile the Met Office keeps on peddling the old lie about global warming:

 

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https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/05/27/more-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead/

33 Comments
  1. Chaswarnertoo permalink
    May 30, 2022 1:37 pm

    The met. Office. Never knowingly correct since Slingo.

    • chriskshaw permalink
      May 30, 2022 5:19 pm

      Not correct? They covered every potential outcome! They could never be wrong

  2. May 30, 2022 2:25 pm

    “With climate change raising global temperatures”?????
    Has someone at the Met been smoking Weetabix? Isn’t the claim “supposed” to be that the warming of the planet is supposed to do all this magical stuff with climate change NOT the other way around or is physics as fluid as gender these days?

    I have been of the opinion that they just make it up as they go along…every once in a while they let slip…..

  3. Phoenix44 permalink
    May 30, 2022 2:40 pm

    So…there’s an increase but we can’t see it. But there’s an increase…

    Because we think there should be.

    It gets shakier and shakier.

  4. May 30, 2022 3:13 pm

    There’s ‘hurricane activity’, then there’s Pielke’s ‘major hurricane activity’.

    2021 hurricane season ran out of storm names for the second year running
    For the third time on record, and the second year running, the number of storms exhausted the 21-name hurricane name list (though there have not yet been any storms requiring the use of the alternative name list in the event of overflow).

    It’s also the sixth consecutive year of above-average hurricane activity.
    https://news.yahoo.com/2021-hurricane-season-ran-storm-015521247.html

    • Janice Moore permalink
      May 30, 2022 4:44 pm

      A “storm” is rarely a “hurricane.”

      You will need to provide data to prove your claim.

      So far, the DATA presented proves Paul Homewood is correct

      and you are

      mistaken.

      • May 30, 2022 5:06 pm

        I’m quoting the news report, so any mistake is theirs.

      • May 30, 2022 5:11 pm

        This is the Weather Report’s data, which Yahoo used.

      • May 30, 2022 5:20 pm

        Sorry, that’s the forecast. This is the one …

        It’s from the Weather Network’s 2021 Atlantic wrap-up article. Hurricanes rated average but storms were on the high side.

      • Climate Heretic permalink
        May 31, 2022 4:39 am

        I wonder why they are running out of hurricane names.

        There are 2500 Christian names (from the bible) approximately. How about world wide ‘baby names’?[1] One site lists 127,649[2].

        This article describes where the hurricane names come from. There is a strict procedure established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to name storms[2]. So there you have it with the WMO coming up with the lists no wonder why they run out of names for hurricanes.

        [1] https://list.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_Biblical_names
        [2] http://www.yougowords.com/names/
        [3] https://babynames.com/blogs/names/hurricane-names-2022-2026/

        Regards
        Climate Heretic

      • dave permalink
        May 31, 2022 8:03 am

        ‘oldbrew’ is looking at the Atlantic. That is just ONE of the SIX basins
        where Hurricanes (a.k.a Tempests, a.k.a Cyclones, a.k.a Tropical Cyclones) occur.* GLOBAL figures involve adding up the statistics from all six basins.This makes for some confusion, since the Southern Hemisphere develops Cyclones with a six-month offset to the Northern (the timing of local summer). Hence the use by Maue of running averages.

        “Tropical cyclones derve their energy from warm water…”

        No, they do not. They merely concentrate pre-existing atmospheric vorticity.

        *What’s in a name? ‘Hurricane’ comes through Spanish from ‘Juracan’ the name of the Storm God of the Taino** people inhabiting the Caribbean when Columbus arrived, akin to Arawak ‘kulukani’, thunder.

        **Probably not what they called themselves.

    • May 30, 2022 6:44 pm

      Pielke is quite right right on that, what’s your beef with it!?

      • May 30, 2022 10:41 pm

        I don’t have a beef with it. Confusion arises when ‘hurricane activity’ and ‘major hurricanes’ are regarded as the same thing. Major ones are categories 1-3 I believe. It’s quite possible to have few major ones but average or more of lesser stuff.

      • dave permalink
        May 31, 2022 8:27 am

        “Major ones are categories 1-3 I believe.”

        No; 4 and 5 are. But, whenever one has a continuum any boundaries one adopts for convenience do not have fundamental significance.

        People should regard a tweet as an invitation to go the original source.
        ‘Maue ACE’ will get you there in this case. The terminology is slightly,I agree.

        The Law has a concept of ‘best evidence.’ Do not present copies to the Court when the original can be obtained.

      • dave permalink
        May 31, 2022 8:29 am

        ‘slightly’ should be ‘slightly confusing.’

      • dave permalink
        May 31, 2022 10:18 am

        The graph that Pielke provides has to be read (for the latest data):

        “In the last 12 months, in the whole world, 36 tropical storms have reached hurricane* intensity of which 15 were Major and the difference (21) were ordinary ones.”

        And similarly for earlier data.

        The overall special metric that Maue keeps up, is ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy**) and includes a contribution from Tropical Storms which stay as such.

        A couple of years ago, the propaganda was concentrated on the fact that there were a record number of tropical storms in the Carribean. What was NOT told to the believers was that this was because an unusual number of tropical storms DID NOT STRENGTHEN INTO HURRICANES and so were not removed from the category of mere storms.

        *Whether locally called a hurricane (the Americas) or a typhoon (NW Pacific)
        a willy-willy (Australia) or something else.

        **It is a metric or index, not a measurement. One has to look up the details to
        decide whether it is a good approach.

    • David Wojick permalink
      May 30, 2022 8:15 pm

      Named storms include mostly tropical storms of less than hurricane strength. They also now include storms anywhere in the Atlantic, like off Africa.

      • David Wojick permalink
        May 30, 2022 8:21 pm

        And no matter how short lived. As Joe Bastardi says, they are naming everything they can.

      • dave permalink
        May 31, 2022 10:31 am

        “…names…”

        Belief in Magic! If you name something it comes to life.
        Alternatively if you discover the existing name of something you can conjure with it.

    • Climate Heretic permalink
      May 31, 2022 4:42 am

      Sorry last reference in last paragraph should be a [3]

      Regards
      Climate Heretic

  5. May 30, 2022 3:19 pm

    OT over the last week there have been 4 instances of horse racing meetings being abandoned because horses have slipped on bends in the track. Latest being Lingfield today.

    Get yourselves ready for the inevitable cry of ‘Climate Change’ affecting the weather and therefore changing the turf conditions!

  6. Gamecock permalink
    May 30, 2022 3:48 pm

    ‘Julian Heming is the Met Office’s expert on tropical cyclones. Commenting on this year’s forecast he said: “What is interesting this year is that the forecasts issued by many different agencies are all indicating an above-average season. As they are all pointing in the same direction this gives us a higher degree of confidence.”’

    Since everyone is making the same guess, it is now fact. Who needs science when you have consensus?

    ‘With climate change raising global temperature levels it could be expected to see an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone activity.’

    Storms couldn’t care less about global temperature levels. It’s the sea under them that matters.

    There’s another half truth in the Met Office report:

    ‘sea surface temperatures above 26°C are necessary to sustain them’

    A sea surface temperatures above 26°C, even 36°C, will NOT sustain a tropical cyclone. It requires such temperatures to a depth of up to a hundred feet to sustain the storm. Surface temp alone is meaningless. Most reports of high sea surface temperature (OH MY!) are of the surface only. Unless they also state to what depth, it is bogus reporting in the context of tropical storms.

    And more: the world is predicting higher number of storms due to existing La Niña ENSO conditions. No crystal ball required; it is known weather behavior. So the Met Office makes this BOLD prediction of higher number of storms, and gives us the climate science sacrament of attribution in Climate Change.

    It’s all so juvenile.

    • ThinkingScientist permalink
      May 30, 2022 3:56 pm

      “As they are all pointing in the same direction this gives us a higher degree of confidence.”

      Er, or they have all made a Type 1 prediction error in statistics, resulting in a less accurate prediction with high confidence.

      We’ll see won’t we? If they are all wrong at the end of the season we will know they are completely clueless. It will be funny to quote back at them if its average (or less) season.

      • dennisambler permalink
        May 30, 2022 4:17 pm

        But it won’t make any headlines, it will be ignored by the MSM.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        May 30, 2022 5:14 pm

        If their guesses are essentially random, then every so often their guesses will all align. If I asked people to guess what number I was going to throw on my dude and most said “3” I wouldn’t be claiming that made a 3 more likely!

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      May 30, 2022 5:12 pm

      But climate change isn’t raising temperatures. Temperatures (using UAH satellite data) are lower now than they were a few years ago. So lower temperatures should mean fewer hurricanes.

      They seem to be getting very confused between what they claim are trends and what’s happening year on year. Or

  7. Ben Vorlich permalink
    May 30, 2022 4:15 pm

    Because this will be all over the BBC, Guardian and all other alarmist media (all of it) and everytime there’s the possibility of a strong sea breeze on the American coast it will be an above average hurricane season.

  8. markl permalink
    May 30, 2022 5:31 pm

    If I remember correctly, the last time the USA weather ‘experts’ predicted worsening, to catastrophic, hurricanes we went almost a decade without a cat 3.

  9. It doesn't add up... permalink
    May 30, 2022 6:15 pm

    We know what the end of season report will do. It will make dramatic comparisons with last year’s exceptionally low figures, and claim that things are getting drastically worse, even though in reality the figures are likely to be little different from the long run average.

  10. Devoncamel permalink
    May 30, 2022 8:27 pm

    That second statement could be summarised as ‘more of the same’. Thanks Met Office.

  11. Coeur de Lion permalink
    May 30, 2022 10:14 pm

    Climate Chsnge causing global warming? No, it’s climate change that causes climate change. ‘Unprecedented ‘ climate change phenomena like the Brisbane rainfall and the Brazilian snowfall are caused by climate change. We have to control climate change not global warming because the globe is not really warming and so it’s difficult.

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