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BP Energy Outlook 2022

June 26, 2022

By Paul Homewood

BP’s Energy Outlook 2022 is now out:

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https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html

Here’s the highlights:

It’s based around three scenarios. They stress these are not in any way predictions:

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These are the three:

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This , I guess, is the key chart:

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In my view, both the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios are pie in the sky. Some countries may have promised to get to Net Zero, but have no plans of how to do it.

Nor has BP or the IEA shown how any of this is remotely achievable technically. All BP have done is assumed that the world’s economy can run largely on wind and solar power.

Which leaves us with the New Momentum, which itself assumes that current aims and ambitions will be met. Even then, emissions in 2050 will still be higher than they were in 2005, and only a quarter lower than now.

The New Momentum also seems to be wildly and unrealistically optimistic, as it assumes that energy consumption will level off in the 2030s, because of energy efficiency gains:

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There is absolutely no evidence to support this. It is true that in western developed economies, energy use has levelled off in recent years, but this is largely because maturing economies tend to expand into low energy intensive sectors whilst moving away from high intensive ones.

Certainly there have been advances in energy efficiency, but these have tended to be cancelled out by increased demand. For instance, take cars – fuel efficiency has improved in leaps and bounds in recent decades, but fuel consumption has remained at high levels as more cars are on the road.

The idea, however, that energy consumption in emerging economies like China and India will soon level off is absurd.

The corollary of all this is that energy demand will continue to remorselessly rise for decades to come. Even the substantial increases in wind and thermal capacity assumed by BP under the Net Zero scenario will do little more than meet this new demand.

To put things into perspective, BP reckon that electricity consumption will double by 2050:

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They also project that wind and solar capacity will increase by about 20,000 GW under the most optimistic scenario. But this will only generate about 26000 TWh, which is enough to supply the extra demand, but no more.

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Given that their assumptions for energy demand are absurdly optimistic, it is plain that fossil fuel usage will still be high in 2050, even under Net Zero projections.

Finally, to reemphasise a point I made earlier, this is how BP envisage our power generation in 2050, which they say will account for a half of total energy consumption:

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So, we will reliant on highly intermittent wind and solar power for about 70% of the world’s electricity by 2050!

I don’t know which world BP is living on, but it certainly is not this one!

Instead of feeding governments’ and UN agendas here, BP should be spelling out the real world, technological obstacles to this crazy Net Zero agenda.

Otherwise we will simply continue down the path of economic ruin, while the rest of the world carries on as before.

31 Comments
  1. Tim Leeney permalink
    June 26, 2022 7:57 pm

    They’re holding their breath, and meanwhile don’t want their shares blitzed. I look forward to their Energy Outlook 2023, which should be very different.

  2. Broadlands permalink
    June 26, 2022 8:00 pm

    “Instead of feeding governments’ and UN agendas here, BP should be spelling out the real world, technological obstacles to this crazy Net Zero agenda.”

    The real world will continue to require using fossil fuels from oil for transportation. To make the transition from conventional vehicles to electric vehicles. All the rest doesn’t matter as it will be part of that transition. We cannot imagine and calculate lower emissions on charts and expect to complete a transition….in the real world. Charts and graphs are a different world.

  3. catweazle666 permalink
    June 26, 2022 8:04 pm

    It won’t make any difference, if we utterly ceased to emit CO2 tomorrow, the rate of increase in the atmosphere would not change by so much as a single ppm/year.
    This can be easily checked by comparing the amount emitted during the two years of the “pandemic” which was considerably reduced to business as usual with the atmospheric CO2 concentration graphs, the rate of change of which didn’t even twitch.

    • Coeur de Lion permalink
      June 28, 2022 7:49 am

      And notice the idiosyncratic shape of Moana Loa sawtooths which was unaffected as was extent.

      • catweazle666 permalink
        June 28, 2022 6:00 pm

        Indeed, not as much as a twitch….

        It is also interesting to estimate the gradient of one of the negative phases of the graph and consider the y value where it will intersect with the x axis…

  4. Brian Smith permalink
    June 26, 2022 8:10 pm

    The disappointing aspect of this is that BP, and other companies of similar stature, employ some of the best brains there are.

    Somehow, through corporate pressure perhaps, BP are persuading these fine minds to put their names to absolute twaddle.

    Ignoring the dishonest delusion of reducing energy demand, electricity currently accounts for a third of the UK’s energy consumption and renewables about 10% of that (in a good year) so from where are the rest of our energy needs being met?

    It is perfectly reasonable to write mankind’s history as an energy consumption vector where year in year out, decade after decade, century through century, we have consumed more energy.

    For the scientists and economists at BP to signup to this nonsense is a tragedy and a reverse of everything we have gained since the Age of Enlightenment first dawned.

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      June 27, 2022 10:20 am

      The situation is even worse than you portray it! From the IEA data UK final energy consumption is Gas 41.2%, Oil 31.9%, Biofuels 9.7%, Nuclear 8.4%, Wind and solar combined 5%, Coal 3.4% and Hydro 0.4%.
      So given that biofuels are just burning stuff anyway, total non combustion renewables come in at just 5.4%. So only the remaining 94.6% for the Greens to magic up.
      https://www.iea.org/countries/united-kingdom
      If you go to a world basis non hydro or combustion renewables come in at under 3%.

  5. Robert Christopher permalink
    June 26, 2022 8:11 pm

    BP = Beyond Parody

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      June 27, 2022 5:49 am

      Yep, sadly. Time to sell, go woke, go broke.

  6. MrGrimNasty permalink
    June 26, 2022 8:17 pm

    The insanity is spreading to farming, the UK looks set to become the Thailand of agriculture!
    CimateFile was pushing so called regenerative farming today. Each field has to be set aside for 4 years to prepare the soil with herby planting or something, and they readily admit yields will drop and cost will rise. So no food production for 4 years, more land taken from nature, and more pressure on the cost of living. No doubt the full weight of Boris will get behind this brilliant new fad!

    • June 26, 2022 9:18 pm

      Regenerative farming went out of the window when fertiliser could be made from fossil fuel. It was called “fallowing”. They used to have windmills too.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        June 26, 2022 9:44 pm

        No, it’s not really the same thing at all, it’s more like organic farming. The initial fallow period is a one-off.

        Some of the ideas are fine, like using waste organic matter to improve the soil, but some are Russian roulette with famine, like going entirely chemical free just for the sake of it.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        June 26, 2022 9:54 pm

        The three-field system of crop rotation was employed by medieval farmers, with spring as well as autumn sowings. Wheat or rye was planted in one field, and oats, barley, peas, lentils or broad beans were planted in the second field. The third field was left fallow

        Two thirds of land in production one third out.

    • Aaron Halliwell permalink
      June 27, 2022 3:28 pm

      Even the Archers was on about regenerative farming last week – real fantasy farming!

  7. June 26, 2022 10:20 pm

    More like No Momentum…

    We must accept we won’t meet 1.5°C climate target, says report

    Social, political and technological inertia mean the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures is likely to be missed

    ENVIRONMENT 23 June 2022
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2325599-we-must-accept-we-wont-meet-1-5c-climate-target-says-report/
    – – –
    But the show must go on, in the usual deluded places 🙄

  8. John Hultquist permalink
    June 27, 2022 4:31 am

    Headline in 2050:
    What couldn’t be done, wasn’t.

  9. June 27, 2022 4:52 am

    Amd what if sustaoned fusion is achieved and becomes a reality by 2030 and commercially available by 2050?

  10. June 27, 2022 4:53 am

    And what if sustained fusion is achieved and becomes a reality by 2030 and commercially available by 2050?

    • W Flood permalink
      June 27, 2022 8:07 am

      Aye, and whit if the blue sna’ fa’s (old Scottish saying from an old Scot)

  11. europeanonion permalink
    June 27, 2022 9:06 am

    As is mentioned, many are on board for climate objectives but few have plans. BP are signalling pleasantries which is good PR. Today I received an email from Churchill Insurance telling me how to live a healthy life, Sure antiperspirants are attached to disability, Sky attached to race. Virtue is all about us from corporations, which may lead the cynical to think it must be good business to describe yourself as caring; while who knows what ruse the boards of these companies will contrive next year.

  12. Jules permalink
    June 27, 2022 11:49 am

    BP are expecting a new battery technology to be invented, as we have done for the past 30 years.

  13. D Hynes permalink
    June 27, 2022 1:35 pm

    ‘Otherwise we will simply continue down the path of economic ruin, while the rest of the world carries on as before.’ Yet this seems to be precisely what the global elite are pursuing. Their ideology of global ‘equity’ in reality, means ‘levelling down.’ This involves the transfer of wealth from developed nations to developing nations, and at best, the retarding of developed nations, while the rest catch up. This isn’t about climate, it’s just a global form of Marxism or socialism. Most, if not all western government leaders, are all signed up to this WEF agenda. They of course, will continue to live their lavish elite lifestyles, so their policies won’t affect them. Democracy will have no place in the proceedings. During the Covid lockdowns, we saw the claws of totalitarianism being flexed through the velvet paws of government. They were testing their strength against the compliance of the masses. Many of the restrictions imposed, will also very conveniently serve their ‘net zero’ agenda. The current cost of energy and fuel crisis is largely manufactured and self-inflicted, through net zero policies.

  14. Gerry, England permalink
    June 27, 2022 1:56 pm

    The recent round of German auctions to bid to build windmills saw packages left with no bidders. Add that to the current anti-windmill sentiment in communities, they won’t be adding much to their collection of windmills anytime soon.

    • Dave Andrews permalink
      June 27, 2022 4:45 pm

      Wind Europe recently (14.6.22) put out a press release ,mainly about a growing shortage of suitable ships to build offshore wind farms, which said

      “In the first quarter of 2022 all five European wind turbine manufacturers were operating at a loss” and

      “Shortage of FIVs, WTIvs and CLVs poses risk for project development world wide.”

      (FIVs are Foundation Installation Vessels. WTIVs are Wind Turbine Installation Vessels and CLVs are Cable Laying Vessels which connect the turbines to the mainland}

      As more and more offshore wind farms are being planned, and the turbines are getting bigger there will soon be a shortage of available and appropriate vessels to install them.

      • ULF WESTBERG permalink
        June 27, 2022 9:32 pm

        Shortage means higher prices- in addition cost of materials are going up as well. I do not see cheap electricity at the horizon.

  15. D Hynes permalink
    June 27, 2022 1:57 pm

    ‘Otherwise we will simply continue down the path of economic ruin, while the rest of the world carries on as before.’ Yet this is precisely what the global elite are pursuing. Their ideology of global ‘equity’, involves the transfer of wealth from the developed nations to the developing nations, while at best, retarding the developed nations, while the rest catch up. This isn’t about climate. It’s just a form of global Marxism or socialism, imposing ‘levelling down’ strategies. Most, if not all western government leaders are signed up to this WEF agenda. They of course, won’t be affected by their policies, and will continue to live their exclusive and lavish lifestyles. Democracy will play no part in the proceedings. During the Covid lockdowns, we saw the steely claws of totalitarianism being flexed by the velvet paws of government. They were testing their strength against the compliance of the masses. Conveniently, the restrictions imposed, will also serve their net zero agenda. We are already experiencing the effects of the astounding cost of energy and fuel crisis, largely created by western governmental schemes. That some millions of their own citizens will die of hypothermia, will not trouble their consciences. This is, after all, their ‘great leap forward.’

  16. It doesn't add up... permalink
    June 27, 2022 2:44 pm

    The Net Zero scenario should be labelled Societal Collapse.

  17. Vernon E permalink
    June 27, 2022 2:59 pm

    Yes, DH, and its called UN Agenda 30 For Sustainability and our political contenders are all signed up to it.

  18. davidrussell22 permalink
    June 27, 2022 7:05 pm

    I’ve loaded up on fossil fuel investments. Doubled my money in 15 months and get dividends, too.

  19. ULF WESTBERG permalink
    June 27, 2022 9:29 pm

    Since 2000, Evert 1 kWh of solar or wind is accompanied by 3.4 kWh of fossile fuel. First the must catch up.

  20. June 27, 2022 11:19 pm

    The data is still only 2020, nothing from 2021!

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