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The Global Temperature Record (Part One)

June 28, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

From Tony Heller:

 

 

12 Comments
  1. Philip Mulholland permalink
    June 28, 2022 10:39 am

    The old saying is that “figures will not lie,” but a new saying is “liars will figure.” It is our duty, as practical statisticians, to prevent the liar from figuring; in other words, to prevent him from perverting the truth, in the interest of some theory he wishes to establish.

    Quote Investigator:

  2. Sylvia permalink
    June 28, 2022 11:15 am

    Why do these people get paid ??????

  3. June 28, 2022 11:38 am

    Tony is great at climate history, and at uncovering the shocking errors in homogenisation, but he lets himself down in this video.

    The initial graph is not well labeled, but is probably for LAND only, since Berkeley Earth (BE) only does land. The agreement between BE and the others is highly significant, because BE is immune to homogenisation errors, because it does not adjust data, it merely cuts it up into segments. It must be that the homogenisation errors in the others average out to nearly zero over the globe.

    The satellite data shown is probably global, which has more sea than land, and warming of the sea has been lower than for the land, Tony should have mentioned that.

    He also uses drought-related heatwaves in Australia to insinuate that the 1940s warmth was global, but AFAIK it did not apply in the Southern Hemisphere, the heatwaves then in Australia were just hot weather.

    The only warming known to be global is that of the late 20th century.

    • ThinkingScientist permalink
      June 28, 2022 4:45 pm

      Comparison of HadCRUT4 NH, SH and Global to BEST land/ocean index:

      https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4nh/plot/hadcrut4sh/plot/best/plot/hadcrut4gl

      The only time series of those four that departs from the others is the HadCRUT4 SH and then only in the 21st century. All the other warming appears to be universally global over the entire record.

      That seems to contradict what you said.

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        June 29, 2022 4:52 pm

        [ Berkeley Earth ] is immune to homogenization errors because it does not adjust data , it merely cuts up into segments ”

        That is not true either and I submit you must have known what you wrote was false . I suspect Climanrecon performed a cursory internet search saw a few preliminary words in an old abstract and posted that nonsense . Rhode and Hausfather inform us that Berkeley adjust temperature data ” in addition ” to breaking or slicing records ” where the data itself suggests a break in the record ” Robert Rhode gave a talk in 2018 on ” the development of Berkeley Earths homogenized , gridded daily land surface temperature product ” https://judithcurry.com/2015/02/09/berkeley-earth-raw-versus-adjusted-temperature-data https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018-16495.pdf

    • Ulric Lyons permalink
      June 28, 2022 10:54 pm

      “warming of the sea has been lower than for the land”

      Only during the warm AMO phase which reduces low cloud cover, during the colder AMO it was the reverse with the sea warming faster:

      https://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/uah6/plot/uah6-land/plot/uah6/to:1994/trend/plot/uah6-land/to:1994/trend/plot/uah6/from:1995/trend/plot/uah6-land/from:1995/trend

      “He also uses drought-related heatwaves in Australia to insinuate that the 1940s warmth was global, but AFAIK it did not apply in the Southern Hemisphere, the heatwaves then in Australia were just hot weather.”

      The AMO envelope is global, heatwaves are just hot weather.

      https://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut4nh/from/plot/hadcrut4sh

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      June 29, 2022 6:50 am

      ” Tony is great at climate history and at uncovering the shocking errors in homogenization but he lets himself down in this video …………” The initial graph is not well labelled but is probably for LAND only ”

      . Tony is not the only one adept at exposing stupid errors and lies . So am I . Tony announced in his presentation that the “initial graph ” – a well labelled composite of four temperature series – NASA Goddard , NOAA , Berkeley Earth and the embarrassing ,error strewn Hadcrut dataset audited by John McLean as a PhD student – is the one featured on the NASA website . Did you turn off the audio watching his video ?

      ” The agreement between BE and the others is highly significant ”

      Is it really ? How so ? NASA’s Gavin Schmidt inadvertently let slip the lie that these temperature series are ” independent ‘ of one another in one of Tony’s more impressive videos : ” NASA Confirms Their Own Conspiracy Theory ” Schmidt admitted in an email that NASA derives their temperature data from NOAA . The agencies have indeed colluded in the peculiar ‘homogenized ” congruence of their temperature datasets . Mindful of the Climategate email that discussed removing part of the “1940’s blip ” pondering ways this could be rationalized , one only has to compare the undulating 1999 NASA US land temperature chronology to the 2016 and later versions to see the data has been unethically adjusted . The 1930’s and 40’s warmth has been scaled downwards for no legitimate reason . NASA tried the same ‘trick’ with the Icelandic long term station temperature data compelling Paul Homewood and Malcom Roberts to make enquiries and lodge complaints with the DMI . If the homogenization methodology was warranted why did NASA reinstate the original Icelandic station datasets ? Reputational considerations in the aftermath of the controversy it would seem .

      ” He also uses drought related heatwaves in Australia to insinuate that the 1940’s warmth was global ” …..

      Tony made no such assertion You misrepresented him. Rather his argument concerned the pan regional heat and aridity of the 1930’s – not the `1940’s He contested the statement : ” The 1930’s were warm in the United States but they were cool globally ” at the beginning of his presentation .

      “Warming for the sea has been lower than for the land ”

      That’s interesting . One of the more infamous and damning Climategate emails – attributed to climatologist Phil Jones if I recall correctly although I could be mistaken – revealed the SST’s south of a certain latitude were in his words ‘ mostly made up ” He said it . Fabricated . Moreover, John McLean’s audit of the Hadcrut4 data revealed the ship measurements for tropical latitude and southern hemisphere ocean temperatures well into the 1950’s were so sparse as to be worthless

      ” The only warming known to be global is that of the late 20th century ”

      That is a revisionist falsehood . Although not in perfectly synchronous geographical entirety much of the Medieval Warm Period was indeed global. This was confirmed years ago [ 2013 ] by a temperature reconstruction map encompassing both hemispheres . You have not so much let yourself down with your ‘analysis “. as made an absolute fool of yourself

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        June 29, 2022 6:53 am

        You or the ‘moderator’ in your place as you enjoy your holidays may edit my comments Paul … Climanrecon misrepresented Tony

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        June 29, 2022 6:56 am

        You or the moderator in your place whilst you are on holidays may edit my comments Paul

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        June 29, 2022 10:16 am

        Corrections in order : Paul Homewood queried the Icelandic Met Office [ not the DMI ] Malcom Roberts questioned NASA’s Gavin Schmidt . https://youtube.com/watch?v=xMc1o2+UBds

        The Medieval Warm Period was global in extent Climanrecon . Notice the preponderance of red [ signifying warmth ] balloon signposts spread across the globe in this comprehensive temperature reconstruction [ a collation of over 1000 studies ] of the MWP https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/12/more-evidence-that-the-medieval-warming-period-was-global-not-regional/

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      June 29, 2022 8:44 am

      The satellites measure atmospheric temperatures, not sea or land. So complete nonsense.

  4. Tim Spence permalink
    June 28, 2022 4:55 pm

    There’s no such thing as a global temperature, just a constant flux of energy betweem land and ocean, so we’ll never know where the heat is hiding. H/T Trenberth.

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