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BP Energy Review 2021

July 18, 2022
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By Paul Homewood

The BP Energy Review came out while I was on holiday, and I have now had a chance to look at it.

To some extent, last year was a mixed bag. In 2020, of course, energy consumption plummeted during lockdown. However, the world was still struggling to get back to normal economic levels in 2021.

It seems an age ago, but in the UK for instance we were still in semi lockdown until May. Most of Europe and the US were slower still in recovery. As a result, energy consumption, while higher than 2020, was still not back to 2019 levels in most of the world outside of China:

 

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Unsurprisingly, we see a similar pattern in CO2 emissions:

 

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We won’t get a clearer picture till next year, but what we can see is that emissions in China and India show no signs of abating.

A couple more charts.

Wind and solar power continue to contribute tiny amounts of the world’s energy.

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The second chart neatly encapsulates why oil prices have been rocketing in the past year:

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Oil production fell away during 2020, partly because of lockdowns and partly because of the rock bottom prices triggered by those lockdowns. However it has been slow to get back to pre-pandemic levels, while demand has been increasing again. Indeed US production in 2021 is actually slightly less than in 2020.

It also needs to be noted that oil consumption has been increasing by 1% a year, for the decade up to 2019. Oil prices will remain high until production returns to 2019 levels and more.

Finally, let’s deal with the Russia factor. The numbers show that Russia produced more oil last year than in 2020, so we cannot blame last year’s prices rises on Putin, as Joe Biden wants to. I suspect when we see the figures for this year, they will confirm the suspicion that Russia has maintained output levels, and is simply exporting more to China and India to counter the western embargo.

FOOTNOTE

The natural gas data makes interesting reading.

Globally, output has already returned to 2019 levels.

Whilst Russian has cut its exports to Europe by 13% from 2019 levels, its output has actually risen since 2019.

The difference has been made up partly by increased exports outside of Europe, mainly China, and reduced imports from CIS states.

16 Comments
  1. In The Real World permalink
    July 18, 2022 11:25 am

    Not directly on topic , but a news item came out a day or so ago .

    The Ipswich power station , which was coal and closed down some years ago , is now the site for 96, [ I believe ], diesel powered generators .
    Local news had them applying for permission to double the amount of hours running they were allowed every day .
    Although the news said Gas Powered , [ which is probably considered greener ,] , I am fairly sure they are still diesel .

    This is probably because there is going to be widescale blackouts this coming winter , and a bit of forward planning [ very unusual ] , is going on to try to hide the insanity of NET Zero .

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      July 18, 2022 1:44 pm

      Hi ITRW, they are definitely diesels. UK Power Networks register of embedded generation (generators that are connected to the distribution network rather than the national HV transmission grid) clearly indicates them as “Fossil Oil”.
      They likely serve two purposes, the first is, as you rightly say, we are likely to have extreme difficulties in sourcing enough power in the winter and will be scratching around for any available power. However if the situation is bad, the operating time restrictions can be lifted anyway.
      The second reason is evident if you look at the daily/monthly graphs on gridwatch.
      https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
      Look at the daily/weekly graph showing solar/pumped/bio etc and you will notice little peaks of pumped hydro generating just as the solar starts kicking in and later in the day as it tails out. At these times solar output is extremely erratic and the PSH is being used to even out the blips. As more solar comes on (the owners of this site also own solar farms – surprise, ,surprise) the problem exacerbates possibly beyond the PSH capabilities. For this reason they are after their start time made earlier to 6:00 a.m.. Essentially they are looking to run 6 to 8 in the morning and the latter two hours around sunset for both the late winter/early spring and late autumn/early winter days. This is where they will make big bucks knowing they can use up all their running days and still be called on in extreme in the winter to avoid blackouts.
      The people who run these companies are real chancers who know how to extract every last penny by playing the system.

      • In The Real World permalink
        July 18, 2022 2:22 pm

        Thanks for that explanation Ray .
        .We can not expect to get the truth from the media , So having all of the facts in place is very handy for showing up the lies that we constantly get from them .

      • Julian Flood permalink
        July 19, 2022 3:05 am

        Ray, they are businessmen
        Their job is to look for ways to make money by taking advantage of opportunities which come from wherever.

        Mismanagement of the Grid is not the fault of businessmen, still less those actually keeping it working day to day.

        It’s our STEM-illiterate politicians. They are damaging it’s resilience and then paying STOR suppliers to hide that fact.

        JF
        (While I’m here, let me reveal my inner Icke, turquoise track suit and all. There is a post at TCW Defending Freedom blog on 27 June detailing a possible ignored warming mechanism.)

  2. Athelstan permalink
    July 18, 2022 12:12 pm

    It’s OK everybody, the Con party prospective candidates for dear leader are all on the green gravy train and because bill dictated it. That dreadful Penny is promising loads of green jobs and the crackpots drill ever deeper into the political merde. In reset to carbon zero catastrophe – arriving right now, the message reads clear: despair and blackouts this winter.

    • chriskshaw permalink
      July 18, 2022 12:47 pm

      Surely the prols can influence and get Kemi anointed?

    • Robert Christopher permalink
      July 18, 2022 1:22 pm

      Tory leadership hopeful Kemi Badenoch brands net zero ‘unilateral economic disarmament’
      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/kemi-badenoch-net-zero-tory-leadership-b2121209.html

      That sounds pretty clear to me.

      And, while Suella Braverman has been eliminated, in her challenge, she did write “In order to deal with the energy crisis we need to suspend the all-consuming desire to achieve net zero by 2050. If we keep it up, especially before businesses and families can adjust, our economy will end up with net zero growth. We don’t want to end up like the Germans, going cap in hand to Putin for heating and power.”
      https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/two-candidates-for-uk-prime-minister-make-untrue-claims-about-net-zero

      So don’t dismiss right-thinking politicians, they are few and far between.

      • Athelstan permalink
        July 18, 2022 4:49 pm

        Kemi, is by far the best of a very bad lot however, sad to say that, the bad lot in Parliament have the chop. Thus, I do not think the Kemi Badenoch will be allowed to reach the ‘play off’ and alas.

  3. Philip Gauntlett permalink
    July 18, 2022 1:42 pm

    And BP plan to reduce oil and gas production by 40% this decade.

  4. July 18, 2022 2:49 pm

    Off-topic, but proof that Heathrow temperatures should be discarded in the Great Temperature Record Quest. On the other hand Cambridge NIAB may be OK, in which case the highest ever temperature in the South-East was around 38C on 25th July 2019, and it looks like that won’t be exceeded today, maybe tomorrow.

    The figure below shows Heathrow and Cambridge-NIAB 12-month averageTmax relative to the regional average provided by Berkeley Earth. Heathrow is not homogeneous, but Cambridge is, the step in Heathrow temperatures around 1969 was probably due to a relocation, and there was a recent step around 2015. Nearby RAF Northolt temperatures may be more reliable.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      July 18, 2022 5:50 pm

      Interestingly that first step might coincide with the opening of Terminal 1 at Heathrow. The rise in the mid-1980s might be coincident with the opening of T4 and the decline after the mid 1990s asspciatrd with changes in engines and aircraft, in particular the introduction of modern 2 engined replacements for older 4 engined aircraft – the B777 was introduced in 1994 – and the introduction of the Airbus short haul family. The later step may relate to changes in runway use but more likely the closure of T1 in 2015. It would be quite fascinating if the two steps both relate to T1! It’s quite possible therefore that you can read the life of Heathrow/aviation in that temperature record.

  5. July 18, 2022 4:41 pm

    Today of all days – our wind turbines on a go-slow again.

    https://gbcmn.nationalgrideso.com

  6. July 18, 2022 5:16 pm

    “Whilst Russian has cut its exports to Europe by 13% from 2019 levels, its output has actually risen since 2019.”

    Surprise, surprise. 4:39pm BST today, “Russia’s Gazprom tells Europe gas halt beyond its control” and declares force majeure.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-gas-supplies-europe-2022-07-18/

    https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-gazprom-europe-idAFL8N2YZ387

    Interestingly ‘only’ Nord Stream 1 was affected. What a pity German Greens chose to reject the paperwork for Nord Stream 2 AFTER the pipeline had been completed last year.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      July 18, 2022 5:39 pm

      The highest temp on netweather so far is 38C but the Cambridge lab roof has at least matched 3 years ago when the botanic gardens broke the record. I’ll be surprised if the UK record doesn’t fall. Tomorrow promises more.

  7. July 18, 2022 5:44 pm

    Omnologos (who exposed the 28-gate attendance list) reports another irony today:

  8. July 18, 2022 5:55 pm

    Closing a main rail line, ostensibly because of high atmospheric temperatures, and imposing speed limits on others, as well as all the road restrictions and cancelled flights, has but one agenda – reducing energy usage and emissions. What used to be called “reducing the carbon footprint”.

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