Flashback – Met Office Predict Wet UK Summers
August 5, 2022
By Paul Homewood
The Met Office has been busy trying to convince people that this year’s drought is linked to global warming.
But the same clowns were claiming nine years ago that global warming would bring wetter summers:
Britain should brace itself for a continuing trend of soggy summers, according to Met Office scientists, who have predicted that the natural warming of the Atlantic jet stream coupled with higher levels of greenhouse gases means that summers will be wet for a decade.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/06/19/uk-weather-met-office-wet-summers-decade-_n_3463853.html
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Comical. Their idea of a prediction seems to be that whatever’s happening at the time will keep on happening, but get worse.
It doesn’t actually specify which decade!
They create a trend from two data points- at most! They basically don’t know what they are doing with data. It’s just embarrassing really.
These bu99ers can create a trend from only one data point – or even no data points at all!
Actually oldbrew – persistence is not a bad forecasting strategy. Keep forecasting the same until it changes, then you only get it wrong once.
Weather forecasts beyond two or three days are problematical.
I think they even find the next day taxing…
My hope of rain was dashed this morning when weather-forecast removed it from their forecast for 15 August.
I’ve been looking at long range forecast, too. They claim that next Friday, 12Aug, the dew point is going to drop below 70F. First time in at least a month. Temps haven’t been so bad this summer, but humidity has been awful.
I am not sure where you are Gamecock? but did you mean 50F. Outside here in NW England the dew-point is 48F as we speak.
Right now, dew point where I live in SC is 74 °F.
Gamecock: I assume you are in South Carolina.
40 years ago my wife and I parked ouf camper at Myrtle Beach in a very hot August. At 11:00 pm the local news came on and said the current weather at MB was 90F with 95% humidity! We called it Summer. ☺
We often say, “It’s not the heat; it’s the humidity.”
The Warmists have been running this strategy for decades – predict every possible outcome on different occasions, then whatever happens they can say “We warned you!”.
It’s good politics, but they call it science, which it isn’t.
It looks like Net Zero is progressing apace with no idea of any reform. The “Electricity Networks Strategic Framework: Enabling a a Secure Net Zero Energy System” is published today. Extracts: ” …need to upgrade our transmission and distribution networks to get that electricity to where it’s needed, including the undersea infrastructure to connect up to 50GW of offshore wind the government is aiming to build by 2030.” “…..a near doubling of investment to upgrade the grids to handle millions of new electric vehicles and heat pumps, delivered at no extra cost to consumers through their bills….” Link to the Document: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1096283/electricity-networks-strategic-framework.pdf
“…delivered at no extra cost to consumers through their bills”
Speechless…
It must be true. The year previously even the Grauniad reported:
“For scientists at the Met Office’s world-renowned Hadley research centre in Exeter, the question was not just how fast Greenland was melting, but something much trickier. They have been crunching through years of data from dozens of satellites, trying to establish whether the conditions in the Arctic circle are related to the record-breaking washout of a summer in the UK.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/aug/08/shape-of-british-summers-to-come
Sorry …..missed the link to the Appendix explaining how the Net Zero Strategic Framework will be delivered. Here is the link: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1096248/electricity-networks-strategic-framework-appendix-1-electricity-networks-modelling.pdf
If global warming is the cause, why only a decade? Why not permanently?
I think the Met Office operates using the random prediction method.
The trouble is so many of these pieces are written by people who have an agenda which has nothing to do with climate. Today’s Telegraph has a ridiculous piece by Ambrose Evans Pritchard. Like the Met office he doesn’t seem to what CO2 is or can and cannot do to the climate.
The reassuring thing about AEP’s piece is that whilst he writes interesting articles, he is always wrong, about everything. So read it with the calm certainty that none of what he speaks of will ever happen.
AEP is a believer in AGW and CO2 induced climate change and like any true believer (aka religious fanatic) will refuse to accept any evidence that casts doubt over the certainty of his beliefs. Having affirmed his faith, he is then compelled to accept unchallenged anything that can make his belief in a CO2 free future come true – compressed air energy storage, cheap green hydrogen, solar power from the Sahara and even solar panels at UK latitudes. I am sure psychiatrists have a word to describe this delusional behaviour and he should probably be pitied and treated for it.
Don’t look now but Greenland ice seems to have forgotten to melt this summer. Member how it was all supppsed to have melted by now. (See South Park memberberries)
I get amused by all the claims of Greenland ice melt, while SLR rate remains unchanged. Proving it DIDN’T melt, or that it just doesn’t matter.
A couple of years ago there was an unusually warm Atlantic circulation which was blown up by the media as , ” billions of tons of Greenland ice sheet melting , and will soon all be gone “.
If you actually looked at the figures , it showed that , if the melt continued at that rate , and it did not get cold in the Winters again , then in 12,000 years the Greenland ice sheet would be half gone .
So , as usual , it is all just Green Loonie propaganda .
The Met Office should be renamed? The Make It Up As You Go Along Office is much more appropriate!
The Met Office is already rebranded. An internet search for the Met Office brings up “Weather and Climate Change – Met Office” and a link to the official homepage.
It’s alarming to discover that essentially they have no idea of the cost or scale of the work needed to upgrade the low voltage network that delivers power to homes. Their estimates remain very imprecise, and they are relying heavily on demand management – the ability to impose 15GW of power cuts.
Should have been a reply to Frank.
Hence “Smart Meters” with the ability to disconnect us plebs so the private jet set can still keep the lights on in their walled enclaves…
Have you never read Alice?
Why on earth do we continue to fund this Agency, whose outputs over the past several decades, despite huge public investment in ultra-modern and huge computers, has broadly been unwaveringly poor.
Was it not that some years ago,a dame somebody or other,was explaining to us plebs that warmer weather causes more evaporation,and thus more rain.There is nothing like a dame …dum de dum…..
From 2014:
“UK will see wetter, milder winters and hotter, drier summers due to global warming, scientists predict”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/25/climate-change-uk-weather-wet-dry-met-office
“according to Met Office scientists, who have predicted that the natural warming of the Atlantic jet stream coupled with higher levels of greenhouse gases means that summers will be wet for a decade”
They actually predict drier summers with rising CO2 forcing via a positive influence on the AMO. The run of wet summers they put down to natural variability and mention a cycle of 10-20 years.
NAO not AMO
Met Office has also predicted drier summers, as the Grauniad was keen to tell us in 2009:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/jun/18/uk-weather-climate-impact-report
Drier summers, wetter summers – if they cover all the bases then they can’t be said to be wrong. Just that their forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.
The fact that our summers are highly variable has nothing to do with it, of course. Remember the scorching July of 2006, only to be followed by the summer floods in 2007?
Ah !,you jogged my memory Ulric:Dame Julie Slingo I think.