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How China Dominates The EV Battery Market

August 15, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

The IEA have just published a report into EV battery supply chains:

 

 

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https://www.iea.org/reports/global-supply-chains-of-ev-batteries

Below are some of the highlights:

 

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So far, battery prices have been insulated from raw material prices, as manufacturers normally arrange forward contracts. But it is inevitable that prices will soon start to rise. Indeed the IEA estimate that the average price this year will be 15% higher than last.

Given that batteries account for a third of the cost of an EV, it is hard to see them becoming price competitive with petrol models by 2030. Remember as well that car manufacturers will need to recover the huge capital costs incurred by them in switching over to EVs. With a captive market soon arriving in the UK, they can really charge what they want!

Meanwhile the western world will grow ever more dependent on China.

26 Comments
  1. GeoffB permalink
    August 15, 2022 5:01 pm

    China also makes all the solar panels, we are heading for a dystopian future. Our existing manufacture of internal combustion cars is already being run down by insane legislation on total emissions of carbon dioxide by individual manufacturers. With China holding a monopoly, what do you expect will happen when China invades Taiwan and we sanction them by not buying any more Chinese goods.
    I worked in China for 6 years transferring electrical component manufacturing, running the Chinese factory for 2 years. We eventually transferred all our machinery over, leaving no capability in the west. Profits soared, the bean counters were happy. What fools we were, the lure of cheap labour, no taxes until 3 years of profit, duty free imports of raw materials as long as the production was exported…now the West is totally dependent on China (and India) for another critical electrical product. Fuses, low voltage, miniature and sub miniature, the ones in your house wiring and inside your computer and tv.
    I am sure switches, capacitors, resistors must all be made in China, and if they invade Taiwan, they get the chip industry, particularly the specialist chips used in vehicles and white goods. I guess its going to get a lot worse….

    • John Hultquist permalink
      August 15, 2022 5:22 pm

      ” if they invade Taiwan, they get the chip industry, ”

      Two scenarios:
      a – A non-violent capitulation, changes occur somewhat like in Hong Kong.
      b – A destructive war similar to Ukraine with structures ruined, skilled people scattered, and capital gone.

      What else ‘b’ might entail, and the consequences are more than I want to imagine.

  2. Malcolm permalink
    August 15, 2022 5:46 pm

    Ever since 1980 I have saying all this. We were slowly cutting our own throats. The politicians and bankers laughed loudly at me saying, “ You are a sentimental Engineer who knows nothing about commerce. Say after us, ‘the future is free trade and globalism’ then learn it Mr Engineer how wrong you are.”

    I think time has proved me right. But they got rich.

  3. August 15, 2022 5:58 pm

    Paul

    This is another of those article where readers of your blog will be shaking their heads and muttering’ But we knew all that years ago!”

    As Geoff says, they also make most of the worlds solar panels ironically using vast amounts of coal, then we Brits import them thousands of miles and erect them at a latitude whereby the sunniest locations get around 1750 hours of sun per year. Unfortunately very little of that in the winter when needed let alone at night.

    But surely our elite also know all these things that sceptics already do? yet why do they persist in this foolishness? Truly Green ideology must be very powerful and dulls the mind

  4. Athelstan permalink
    August 15, 2022 6:16 pm

    The reinvention of the PRC as the good guys a stunning achievement of political sleight and manipulation after the Tianamen slaughter and the west bought it. Flooding the west with, the fragrant grease or at least the media and politicians all swallowed it ‘china free’ and the globalists self congratulation at them hugging their new partners, also somewhat stunning but not in a good way

    As we discontinued to sow, so did they reap and now the whirlwind beckons but the west sold off all its defences and wit.

  5. August 15, 2022 6:23 pm

    One of the biggest risks companies face is the risk that new products they develop won’t be popular with customers. As European, US, Australian and other governments write regulations and create subsidy mechanisms to define what consumers can buy, they eliminate this market risk which creates enormous opportunities for the low-cost producer. Given China’s emphasis on reliable, low-cost energy, low labor rates that undercut the west plus securing the raw material supply chain, they have significant cost advantages. Supposedly the subsidies given to electric vehicles by the Inflation Reduction Act are set aside for domestic labor and domestic manufacturing. It will be interesting to see what loopholes will be found that were written into the bill to get around the domestic set asides.

  6. 2hmp permalink
    August 15, 2022 6:41 pm

    Boris – and Carrie – made the ridiculous unthought through decision to ban ICE vehicles when no one wanted an electric vehicle except cranks. Now normal people are buying into this farcical product which will be undriveable unless a stupendous increase in electrical energy is found by 2030. Pull the other leg Boris. Thank goodness he has gone.

  7. Mack permalink
    August 15, 2022 6:49 pm

    China has just about every country in the West by the ‘short and curlies’. For all of his bombast and narcissism, Trump was one of the few politicians to recognise this and try and rectify the problem. That ended well. Unless there is a serious change of course by our elites, I suggest we all sharpen up on our Mandarin. Chin chin.

  8. GeoffB permalink
    August 15, 2022 6:56 pm

    local news here in Newcastle on Tyne…
    Battery maker Britishvolt says construction of its multimillion-pound Northumberland gigafactory will continue in a limited capacity until February.

    The start-up manufacturer, which recently received assurances of Government funding for the plant, was responding to further reports of uncertainty surrounding the project. It comes after last week’s assurances from the company that work is continuing, following suggestions activity had stalled on site.

    Britishvolt hopes to produce more than 300,000 lithium-ion batteries a year at Blyth, making it the second gigafactory in the North East after the Envision AESC plant at Sunderland. The factory aims to create 3,000 direct nd 5,000 indirect jobs once fully operational.
    my comment.
    GeoffB
    9 HRS AGO
    As I have commented before, 3000 jobs at the factory and 5000 in support operations, just does not add up, that is a mammoth cost. A fully automated factory, with few employees or making them with cheap (slave) labour in China is the way to go. Destroying the Internal combustion engine manufacturing across the West, to reach the mythical Net Zero seems like a rather short sighted plan.

  9. Tim Spence permalink
    August 15, 2022 7:08 pm

    Well Mack, the Biden administration seems to be working for them for sure but Chyna is not content with controlling the West, it has Africa stitched up too.
    At least we’ll get a laugh in the West when we see loads of EV’s broken down.

  10. Gamecock permalink
    August 15, 2022 7:10 pm

    The regulatory state prevents development in the U.S.

    China’s trump card is limited regulation.

  11. Kim permalink
    August 15, 2022 8:36 pm

    Maybe the only way out of the prison we find ourselves is to start detaching from technology. Difficult I know but how refreshing! China is not the problem just another player in globalist cabal.
    Cellphone Exports by Country

    Below are the 15 countries that reaped the greatest dollar amounts selling mobile phones by value on international markets during 2021.

    China: US$127.9 billion (48.4% of total cellphone exports)
    Vietnam: $39.1 billion (14.8%)
    Hong Kong: $32.3 billion (12.2%)
    United States: $12.6 billion (4.8%)
    Germany: $5.7 billion (2.1%)
    Czech Republic: $5.4 billion (2.0%)
    Singapore: $5.3 billion (2.0%)
    South Korea: $4.93 billion (1.9%)
    India: $4.87 billion (1.8%)
    Austria: $3.7 billion (1.4%)
    Slovakia: $3.4 billion (1.3%)
    Netherlands: $2.7 billion (1.0%)
    Sweden: $2.1 billion (0.8%)
    Italy: $1.5 billion (0.6%)
    Belgium: $1.2 billion (0.4%)
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/cellphone-exports-by-country/
    Convenience will be the death of us.

  12. Coeur de Lion permalink
    August 15, 2022 8:43 pm

    Does the Government know about this?

  13. markl permalink
    August 15, 2022 9:44 pm

    Remember when “outsourcing” was the buzzword in manufacturing during the late 20th century? Those who participated in it were supposed to get increased profits while the people who were displaced from work were supposed to move on to better “service sector” jobs requiring increased responsibility and pay. Look what really happened. We were duped but the corporate leaders don’t see it that way despite the people having less money to buy their products. Made in … insert country name here … has taken on new meaning.

  14. Sapper2 permalink
    August 16, 2022 7:42 am

    Well, the situation in UK is one of policies made by our dimwit politicians, gently eased into position by group-think civil servant advisors and extensive lobbying by vested interests. At no stage has any critical analysis or effective challenge taken place of the processes that have led us to our current national predicament.
    The solution is simple. Laws are made by man; laws can be undone by man. A (proper) declaration of National Emergency with an immediate striking down of the plethora of laws and associated rules and regulations should take place, based on the fact that the green agenda, as opposed to common-sense environment betterment, is no longer affordable and poses a threat to the well-being of the Citizens of this Nation. The emphasis is now to be on security: of our realm; of our food production; of our wealth creation industry.

    ‘Nuffield said.

  15. August 16, 2022 9:47 am

    No equality here…

    Public EV charging costs seven times more!
    Tuesday 16 August 2022

    Charging an average EV at home cost nearly £208 a year, compared to more than £1,450 for public charging, according to a new report

    https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/08/16/public-ev-charging-drives-bills-1260-higher-than-home-charging/

  16. Richard Jarman permalink
    August 16, 2022 10:48 am

    AND YET …. all of the UK political parties extol how the green economy will provide extra jobs and extra growth – is this a fantasy?

    • Penda100 permalink
      August 16, 2022 11:55 am

      Not completely. It’s just that the extra jobs and growth will be in China.

  17. Gerry, England permalink
    August 16, 2022 12:51 pm

    Talking of battery cars, watching Van Der Valk last night the sponsor of the programme was Cupra. Has anyone ever seen Cupra on the road? The most common battery car I see is a Tesla by a huge amount. How can Cupra afford a prime TV sponsorship if you never see their cars?

  18. Susan Ewens permalink
    August 16, 2022 12:53 pm

    The “Extra Jobs” much bruited by Green proponents are less than worthless to us unless accompanied my a much higher level of productivity than those they are supposedly replacing. Otherwise these “Green wages” are just another cost, another drain on general competitiveness – the British disease for more than a century.

  19. Carnot permalink
    August 16, 2022 2:34 pm

    Time to look at the 36 stratagems

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems

    My employer had a love affair with China. Make China happen. At every juncture we got screwed, Chinese fashion.

    They have stitched up the west like an oven ready turkey. Our manufacturing base is being de-based brick by brick and the car industry is falling into the same trap. Slowly sucked into the maelstrom of our own creation.

    We will be lucky to retain a few assembly lines for vehicles. They (the Chinese) have just about conquered the renewables industry, for what it is worth, and cars are next.

    Meanwhile our goevernments sleep walk us into oblivion, worrying more about woke issues and not offending the LGBTQ++++++ mob than thinking about what we are going to do with a rising population that is so thick and stupid that they think that money grows on trees.

    The Chinese makes things happen. The west is wondering what happend.

  20. Dave Andrews permalink
    August 18, 2022 5:32 pm

    The President of Toyota, Aiko Toyoda, is on the record as saying

    “the current business model of the car industry is going to collapse” if the industry shifts to EVs too quickly

    “Japan will run out of electricity in the summer if all our cars are running on electric power”

    “infrastructure needed to support a 100% EV fleet would cost Japan 14 – 35 trillion yen or $135 billion – $358 billion”

    “Most electricity is from coal and gas” “The more EVS we build the worse carbon dioxide gets. When politicians are out there saying ‘let’s get rid of all cars
    using gasoline’, do they understand this?”

    https://climate changedispatch.com/toyota-warns-were-nowhere-near-ready-to-jettison-gas-powered-vehicles/

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