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Greenland Ice Cap Mass Gains Above Average Again

September 1, 2022
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By Paul Homewood

Greenland’s ice cap year has officially ended, and the surface mass balance (SMB) has added over 100 Gt more than the 1981-2010 average:

 

https://i0.wp.com/polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20220831.png

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

This excess of ice has been solely due to reduced summer melt. The melt season began about three weeks later than usual, and cold, cloudy weather for much of the summer kept melt below average.

Four of the last six years have ended up with above average SMB.

Courtesy of Tony Heller

https://realclimatescience.com/2022/08/more-than-twice-as-fake-as-the-previous-model/

As always, note that these calculations exclude glacial loss, which is measured separately by the DMI:

 image

AMO

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/image-74.png

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/06/12/greenland-temperatures-2021/

Greenland’s climate is heavily influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO. Temperatures in the last two decades are similar to those of the 1920s to 40s, and both periods correlate with the warm phase of the AMO. In between these periods occurred a much colder interlude, in turn coinciding with the cold phase of the AMO:

image

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/

The maps below show the contrast in temperatures between warm and cold phases:

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/10/11/atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation/#:~:text=The%20Atlantic%20Multi-decadal%20Oscillation%20is%20a%20cyclic%20phenomenon,patterns%20occurring%20at%20different%20times%20of%20the%20year.

23 Comments
  1. magesox permalink
    September 1, 2022 10:34 am

    After all the media hysteria about heat waves over the U.K. and continental Europe, it’ll be very interesting to see if the total Northern Hemisphere results for summer 2022 are within normal bounds and/or may even show a cooler than average year. Greenland has clearly been cool at times as has Alaska (the latter judging by my anecdotal personal experience of 12C days in July getting drenched).
    Will the BBC and Sky report on any such “normal” data? Will they hell.

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      September 1, 2022 11:22 am

      The DMI Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic 1958 – 2022 shows that tere was no heatwave north of 80′.

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      • Ian Magness permalink
        September 1, 2022 11:28 am

        Thank you Ben (?). Great graph – tells a story.
        I see this year, yet again, has shown some “extreme” temperatures in the first 75 or so days of the year. Funny how the meeja always get so excited about these normal occurrences but shut up when numbers revert to the averages later.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        September 1, 2022 1:18 pm

        Ian,
        Ben is fine, my nom de plume was a local mountain when I was a lad, my version of the Mountains of Mourne.

        I look at the DMI charts every morning, along with GridWatch. The latter to see how windy it will be for my bike ride to Lidl for breakfast croissants

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        September 1, 2022 2:22 pm

        Looking very quickly at other years it appears that the first quarter is extremely variable versus the average, then settles down to be generally pretty close to the average. That makes sense.

      • Coeur de Lion permalink
        September 1, 2022 3:28 pm

        As we approach the autumn equinox it looks as tho Arctic ice will bottom out over five MKm2 for the first time since 2006. Cross yr fingers

    • Matt Dalby permalink
      September 3, 2022 10:26 pm

      http://www.climatereanalyzer.org shows temperature anomalies on a daily basis. These are based on models not observations, however weather models are pretty accurate a day or two in advance. I check the figures several times a week and all summer, indeed for at least the past year, the Northern Hemisphere has been well above average (generally in the range of +0.6-+1.0 degrees). However the Southern Hemisphere has been consistently below average, often -0.4 or -0.5 degrees. I have yet to see any explanation for this large difference, and am certain that carbon dioxide can’t cause warming in one hemisphere and cooling in another. The Southern Hemisphere cooling isn’t due to the Hunga-Tonga eruption as values similar to this year’s frequently happened last year.

  2. Gamecock permalink
    September 1, 2022 10:59 am

    Greenland ice mass down. Greenland ice mass up.

    Tide gauges don’t care. There is no Greenland ice mass signal. At current levels, it is irrelevant.

  3. September 1, 2022 12:17 pm

    Really bad news for the global warmists. Facts are such pesky things……

  4. johnbillscott permalink
    September 1, 2022 12:35 pm

    I read recently the Greenland melt would cause a 1 foot rise in the ocean,

  5. Cheshire Red permalink
    September 1, 2022 1:05 pm

    Good to see that AMO graph as it’s long been obvious to anyone paying attention that Greenland’s climate ebbs and flows with the AMO.

    That wrecks the ‘ CO2 climate change’ narrative so MSM willfully mislead the wider public to keep the racket alive.

  6. Baz permalink
    September 1, 2022 1:22 pm

    I also read the article that predicted a foot rise in the ocean level. Time span unknown but it would happen by the end of the century if I remember correctly. Danish led study. Computer modelling of course.

  7. September 1, 2022 2:19 pm

    I wonder how long we have to wait to hear this from the BBC or their partners in climate religious propaganda at the Grauniad?

    • that man permalink
      September 1, 2022 4:10 pm

      Don’t hold your breath….

    • dennisambler permalink
      September 1, 2022 5:45 pm

      Damian Carrington right on cue:
      “Major sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice cap is ‘now inevitable’
      Loss will contribute a minimum rise of 27cm regardless of what climate action is taken, scientists discover”

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/29/major-sea-level-rise-caused-by-melting-of-greenland-ice-cap-is-now-inevitable-27cm-climate

      And it isn’t just Greenland, oh no:
      “Mountain glaciers in the Himalayas and the Alps are already on course to lose a third and half of their ice respectively, while the west Antarctic ice sheet is also thought by some scientists to be past the point at which major losses are inevitable. Warming oceans also expand, adding to sea-level rise.

      “There is growing support in the scientific literature for multi-metre levels of rise within the next 100 to 200 years,” said Colgan. A collapse of the colossal east Antarctic ice sheet, which would lead to a 52-metre rise in sea levels over millenia (sic) if it all melted, could be averted if rapid climate action is taken.”

      • dennisambler permalink
        September 1, 2022 5:48 pm

        Guardian footnote to the Carrington article…

        “There can be no more hiding, and no more denying. Global heating is supercharging extreme weather at an astonishing speed.

        Guardian analysis recently revealed how human-caused climate breakdown is accelerating the toll of extreme weather across the planet. People across the world are losing their lives and livelihoods due to more deadly and more frequent heatwaves, floods, wildfires and droughts triggered by the climate crisis.

        At the Guardian, we will not stop giving this life-altering issue the urgency and attention it demands. We have a huge global team of climate writers around the world and have recently appointed an extreme weather correspondent.”

        Aren’t all their correspondents extreme?

      • September 1, 2022 6:43 pm

        Haha!

        Reading this latest religious pronouncement from the unhappy humourless upper middle class holier than thou socialists who infest the Grauniad, I see the following “Loss will contribute a minimum rise of 27cm regardless of what climate action is taken, scientists discover”.

        So then tell me WHY are we wasting trillions of dollars and quids on things which will not have any effect? Surely the money should be ONLY spent on mitigation or am I as dull witted as those writing this climate porn?

        Me thinks lots of things do not add up. Me thinks they had better continue with their support of the asininity which is the denouncement of mathematics and science as racist, otherwise there will one day be a reckoning..ho hum!

    • September 2, 2022 8:28 am

      Definitely not!

      • M E T permalink
        September 2, 2022 2:12 pm

        Thanks for your post on this

      • M E R permalink
        September 2, 2022 5:39 pm

        Here’s ‘The Conversation’s’ monological reply to my inviting response to your critique:

        Hello M⁠a⁠r⁠k,

        Your comment on ‘What’s going on with the Greenland ice sheet? It’s losing ice faster than forecast and now irreversibly committed to at least 10 inches of sea level rise’ has been removed.

        There are several reasons why this may have occurred:

        Your comment may have breached our community standards. For example it may have been a personal attack, or you might not have used your real name.
        Your comment may have been entirely blameless but part of a thread that was removed because another comment had to be removed.
        It might have been removed for another editorial reason, for example to avoid repetition or keep the conversation on topic.
        For practical reasons we reserve the right to remove any comment and all decisions must be final, but please don’t take it personally.

        If you’re playing by the rules it’s unlikely to happen again, so feel free to continue to post new comments and engage in polite and respectful discussion.

        For your reference, the removed comment was:

        Would author or editor care to reply to this critique of the article? https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/09/02/greenland-ice-loss-worse-than-we-thought/

        For more information you can read our standards.

        Kind regards,

        The Conversation

  8. David permalink
    September 2, 2022 9:49 pm

    In all these references to arctic ice in Greenland and hot air near the pole are we forgetting that the Mercator projection greatly exaggerates the importance of these areas. The actual North Pole is vanishingly small!

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