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Greenland Ice Loss “Worse Than We Thought”

September 2, 2022
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By Paul Homewood

 

It’s worse than we thought!!

 

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https://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-the-greenland-ice-sheet-its-losing-ice-faster-than-forecast-and-now-irreversibly-committed-to-at-least-10-inches-of-sea-level-rise-185590

I won’t bother copying the whole article, it’s just the usual mixture of lack of long term perspective, computer models and emotionalism.

But below are some of the key segments:

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Yes, this is what glaciers do!

 

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Perhaps instead of subjectively focussing on the last 30 years, he should actually look at the longer term trends. Greenland’s climate is certainly warmer than it was in the 1990s, but equally it was also “significantly cooler” then than it had been 40 years before:

 

 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/image-74.png

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The simple reality is that Greenland’s ice cap has been slowly melting since the middle of the 19thC, which scientists know was the coldest epoch since the ice age. And as you would expect from the temperature profile, the ice melt between the 1930s and 50s was at a similar rate as now:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/image-178.png

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/11/25/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-no-faster-than-last-century/ 

 

The article then goes on to spew the nonsense that Greenland’s climate has been stable for the last 6000 years, until 1990:

 

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Not only is this an absurd claim, it is an unscientific one, particularly damning given that it was written by a Professor of Glaciology.

There is widespread scientific evidence that Greenland’s climate was warmer than now in the early Holocene. Of particular relevance are Kelly & Long’s studies, which have found that the Greenland ice sheet receded tens of kilometers within its present day margins during the early and mid- Holocene; and that the ice sheet and glaciers reached their maximum extent since the ice age during the 19thC:

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https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-dimensions-of-the-Greenland-Ice-Sheet-since-the-Kelly-Long/bcc6b18b209f45d15382c5f29a113dc970594978#paper-header

Finally let’s tackle the claim that it’s all “going to get a lot worse”. For instance 10.8 inches of sea level rise, (he does not say when, but presumably this century). The current rate is a far from scary 0.04 inches a year:

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Yet the rate of ice melt since satellite measurements began in 2002 show that the rate has if anything slowed, which is consistent with the flattening off of temperatures in the last decade:

 

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Note that the author mentions the summer of 2012, but does not mention recent cold and snowy summers, when the ice cap has increased in size.

In summary the evidence clearly shows that:

1) Current temperatures in Greenland are not unprecedented, either on a 20thC scale, or a Holocene one.

2) Temperature measurements only began during the Little Ica Age, the coldest era since the ice age.

3) The ice sheet is smaller now than for much of the Holocene.

4) Proper satellite measurements of the ice cap began after 40 years of significant cooling.

The article ignores all of this, but finishes:

 

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Such political statements simply detract from the scientific credibility of the article.

21 Comments
  1. David Bains permalink
    September 2, 2022 2:07 pm

    Is point 3 correct?

  2. Broadlands permalink
    September 2, 2022 2:12 pm

    “Fossil fuels and emissions must be curtailed now”? How then are we supposed to continue the transition away from those fuels to manufacture and install the renewables and get to electric transportation? What sort of “green” vehicles will be used.. Magic carpets?

  3. September 2, 2022 2:23 pm

    Is it possible to “…. detract from the scientific credibility …” when there is none to start with?

  4. Nicholas Lewis permalink
    September 2, 2022 2:30 pm

    Never let a good story get in the way of the truth.

  5. Mikehig permalink
    September 2, 2022 3:19 pm

    This is an aspect of the scaremongering which puzzles me.
    We are often told that the world is going to get a lot hotter and this will melt lots of ice. My hazy memories of schoolboy science suggests that melting ice takes a lot of energy and the warming medium cools down. I often prove this to myself with a refreshing sundowner.
    So I wonder whether the projections of warming take into account the heat lost to melting ice or – as I suspect – does the CO2 miracle molecule allow double-counting where the same amount of heat does two jobs?

    • Broadlands permalink
      September 2, 2022 3:27 pm

      That’s why they changed the name of the problem from global warming to climate change. No matter what happens, warm or cool…it’s an existential crisis and climate emergency.

    • September 2, 2022 3:39 pm

      In their books, it’s not just 2 jobs but infinite. That pesky CO2 molecule keeps on absorbing more IR and gets hotter and hotter, and no amount of that energy transferred to warm other things up ever diminishes the amount of energy it has absorbed. It somehow absorbs all, heats all, yet never relinquishes anything in the process.

  6. markl permalink
    September 2, 2022 3:47 pm

    Chicken Little is coming home to roost.

  7. Martin Brumby permalink
    September 2, 2022 4:44 pm

    Ah yes. The cool, rational, studied voice of true empirical science:-

    “…mesmerized by a mindblowing scene of natural destruction.”
    “ a frothing maelstrom flinging ice cubes of several tons high into the air. The resulting tsunami inundates all in its path as it radiates from the glacier’s calving front.”
    “ I have witnessed some gobsmacking changes. The past few years in particular have been unnerving…”
    “ that irreversible commitment to sea level rise would triple. That’s an ominous portent given that these are climate conditions we have already seen, not a hypothetical future scenario.”

    Are you sure this was a real Professor, familiar with the scientific method?

    Not Greta Thunberg’s excitable younger sister (age 9¾) on speed?

    Can’t imagine Will Happer or Dick Lindzen going off like a ten bob alarm clock, like this incompetent twerp.

  8. alexei permalink
    September 2, 2022 5:26 pm

    Confusing. It was only yesterday I read:

    Over the past twelve months, Greenland’s surface gained more ice than the 1981-2010 average for the fourth time in the last six years.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2022/08/more-than-twice-as-fake-as-the-previous-model/

    • Cheshire Red permalink
      September 2, 2022 5:58 pm

      Indeed. Tony Heller has been across the Greenland SMB data for a while now.

      It’d be no surprise for him to produce another Greenland video demolishing the Conversation claims.

    • Matt Dalby permalink
      September 3, 2022 9:41 pm

      It shouldn’t be at all confusing, as the statement that Greenland gained more ice than average this year is a fact based on real world data. The claims made in the article are sensationalist speculation based on dodgy models that are used to push a political agenda.

      • alexei permalink
        September 4, 2022 12:03 am

        I was simply drawing sardonic attention to the contradictions! After more than 30 years of climate scepticism, I’m well aware of the alarmists’ sensationalism………

      • woodburner0 permalink
        September 4, 2022 3:14 am

        Well said!

    • stevejay permalink
      September 4, 2022 4:09 pm

      Yes, I read that too. More likely the truth.

  9. Graeme No.3 permalink
    September 2, 2022 11:00 pm

    There have been ice core samples from bores that are used to show the temperatures for the last 800,000 years. That convinces me that the Greenland ice shelf is pretty stable, given the thousands of years previously with higher temperatures couldn’t melt the ice. (Yes, I know that the central ice is in a depression).
    I also assume that the idea that glaciers are “a river of ice” is correct, so what causes rivers to flow more? More ice at the top?
    So I am convinced that these prats don’t know what they are talking about.

    • M E permalink
      September 5, 2022 7:01 am

      Long ago we were taught glaciers were fed by more snow and pushed forward and or downward by the accumulation of compressed icecrystals. When they reached the lowest point , often the sea or a lake , the icecrystals broke off in that spectacular manner described. In our new world view glaciers are stable until something warms them.

  10. Stephen Burchell permalink
    September 3, 2022 6:03 am

    Greenland is called Greenland for a reason.
    It has been much warmer in the past,grew crops,the Vikings knew this.

  11. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 4, 2022 9:49 am

    His last political remark is born of a depth of lefty ignorance and unthinkingly following the climate change zeitgeist. Here’s something he should know.
    “There is absolutely no chance whatever that the rise in atmospheric CO2 at c. 2ppm a year will be checked”. (Unless we get global cooling?)

  12. Up2snuff permalink
    September 4, 2022 6:04 pm

    PH: “Yes, this is what glaciers do!” (ie. ‘calve’) Glaciers also evaporate.

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