The Summer of 2022
By Paul Homewood
It’s been a summer of record breaking hype, if little else.
We have been hearing for weeks that this summer has been unprecedented, how it “proves” global warming, and how it is a template for the future.
It turns out after all that it was none of these things, and was in fact no hotter than 1976:
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Average mean temperatures were actually below those of 2003, 2006 and 2018:
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
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Statistically, this summer tied with 1976. (The Met Office have previously stated that “Usually we will only quote statistics to the nearest 0.1C as differences smaller than this could result from small numerical differences arising from the statistical calculations”.) This summer finished at 15.72C, while 1976 was 15.70C
Summers like 1899, 1911, 1933, 1947 and 1983 were only a fraction of a degree cooler.
More significantly, daytime temperatures this summer were significantly below 1976. It is, of course, daytime temperatures which have dominated stories of the heatwave.
In contrast night time temperatures are artificially raised by the UHI effect, which is not taken into account by the Met Office.
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
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There have of course also been a lot of overhyped claims about the drought, again with the intention of persuading the public that it was caused by climate change.
But as we can see below, there have been four drier summers in England & Wales – 1995 was the driest, followed in order by 1976, 1869 and 1983:
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
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We have always had hot and dry summers from time to time in Britain. While it is true that summers now are warmer on average than a few decades ago, there is no evidence whatsoever that individual summers are getting hotter . Neither are summers getting drier.
CORRECTIONS
Please note that the final paragraph has been slightly reworded for clarification.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“Statistically, this summer tied with 1976.”
And yet summer ’76 went on for months, this year we barely got a fortnight up in Yorkshire.
Lies, damned lies, statistics and computer models.
We didn’t have many “Fan Days” in Derby either, about four I think. Certainly fewer than last year.
We also had rain in July, around the 20th on a couple days and in August
and the less said about the Solway the better where my fruit blossom and leaves were burnt brown by the perpetual cold spring wind and my prize dahlias were equally tortured and spoiled into July.
Paul,
You say “this summer finished at 15.72C” but the Telegraph says 17.1C. Apologies but what data sources are being quoted and/or what am I missing?
Some figures are for UK wide, some for England I expect, I misread the MO article at first.
It has been an excellent summer for fruit where I live. I have never seen so many apples on my trees and the soft fruit (blackberries etc) have never been so abundant or delicious. My neighbouring farmer harvested his grain crops with no problems and we had enough rain to keep the grass growing (albeit not as green as usual). If this is “climate change”, we need more of it.
” where I live ”
Spring was wet, cold, and windy. Fruit trees did not get pollenated, but the grasses and brush loved it.
I’m guessing that I’m 7,600 k (4,700 mi.) east of you but can’t get rid of those pesky ’00’s without more information.
I live in Devon, in the S-W of England.
I’m 60 miles ENE of Mt Rainier, WA State
Please could you address our annual conference on October 8th on the climate change scam? Please email us.
“Little warming in last 46 years” would also be a valid headline! Just why does the Met Office bend the facts, is it all part of the great reset plot? I always believed all the lies about global warming were just to ensure research grants were available and to make loads of money for the likes of Gore, Grantham, Soros. I now think the WEF plan is actually happening and governments are complicit in removing our freedoms. Canada, Australia, Holland, USA together with UK are all in on it, as is our next King!
” Just why does the Met Office bend the facts ” ?….
Peter Thorne of the UK Met Office inadvertently told us why – with a sense of foreboding – in a Climategate email : ” the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it “
it has never been about ‘saving the planet’:
The United Nations has been one of the organizations leading the manmade climate change push. The paragraph below, from the February 10, 2015 Investor’s Business Daily article “U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare” seems to state the goal clearly.
Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism. “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.
Are the UN aligned to the WEF then….? FFS WHY?
A rare moment of truth from Figueres. Read her book “The Future We Choose” and you will see clearly on page 55 that she does not know the difference between energy and electricity. Why take any notice of anyone so ignorant and stupid – no matter what job she does for the UN? Or maybe that is a good indication of how bright she is…
As we see with the House of Lords, NGOs, Quangos…….. and the UN people are ‘appointed’ for who they know not what they know!
In the list of driest years, 1983 should read 1993! Beyond that, peerless research as usual, Paul!
seventeen degrees Celsius? That is a long way from being “hot”. Even 62 °F is lower than what is required in schools and other places.
To get a summer actually hotter than 1976 would mean looking in the history books before 1976.
Drinks were the bet: Three scientists were at a golf driving range trying to hit a marker way out in the grass. The botanist took her swing, and the ball landed an arm’s length to the right. The physicist took his shot, and the ball landed an arm’s length to the left.
The climate scientist said “I guess I pay for the drinks. I can’t do better than your average.”
Only the climate-obsessed think a good summer needs to be ‘blamed’ on something 🙄
C’mon Paul. You know we’ve had a record-breaking summer. We’ve had a few bee-eaters visit Norfolk.
Again.
I was running a factory in 1976 and I remember trying to keep it cool enough to be sensible. But the heat went on and on and on. Day and night.
Equally I was running a different site in late ‘90s say 96,7,8 and we had long hot summer days – maybe not such high peaks but the heat started early and kept going all day. If I didn’t get the place well ventilated at dawn we all melted.
There must be cumulative “volume” way of comparing heat – like “degree hours” as temperature times number of hours at that temperature. Or, “degree minutes” as area under the plot of temperature every minute, day and night. Lots of options. Just comparing max temp per day is almost useless.
Our “killer heat” lasted about 36 hours across two days. So two days as far as the records go, but just one uncomfortable night.
The best tert is CET whereby UHI IS taken into account. in that regards 2018 became cooler than 1976 according to my email exchanges with the Met Office. I hope Pail will have the chance to compare CET figures between 1976 and 2022.
cr this is the official Met Office site: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
If you add the summer months up it’s average is over 17C, even taking into account that it hasn’t updated for the last couple of days of August yet. It’s notable that they use 1961-1990 as a base line for calculating anomalies – looks scarier that way!
I already posted, they have yet to finalise August, but 2022 mean VET was no more than joint 4th hottest, behind 2018, 1826 and 0.4C behind 1976, even though they recently fiddled 0.1C off 1976.
CET.
The last couple of days of August in this bit of Central England weren’t particularly warm, as commented on by East Midlands weather reporters. The start to September was described as cold today
That’s why I said no more than joint 4th hottest. It might drop back a few places when they finally crunch the data.
I think it would be very interesting to ascertain the volume of tarmac etc today compared to 1976. There are numerous motorways, industrial parks, housing estates, theme parks etc which didn’t exist back in the earlier part of last century.
Anyone who has driven along the M25 on a hot day then turned off into a more rural junction will recognise the vast change in temperature. Similarly numerous heat absorbing tall buildings now fill our cities. They must slowly radiate heat at night and the net effect of all this is to make urban areas warmer at night so temperatures have already got a head start when the sun comes up again.
Met office write up.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/joint-hottest-summer-on-record-for-england
‘Joint?’ Is this some kind of British English?
What does ‘joint hottest’ mean?
“What does ‘joint hottest’ mean?”
Joint first in sexiness?
I remember 1976 vividly, and 2022 ain’t no 1976! Nor no 1884! My grandmother was born in August of that year and I was brought up with the knowledge that she was born in the middle of a scorcher.
None of this childish fake-science journo rubbish matters. Nature is turning colder and that is that.
I made a few videos on this subject
The UN IPPC definition of Climate Change is – “Global warming is defined in this report as an increase in combined surface air and sea surface temperatures averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period.”
The UK/Europe has seen a couple of ‘hot’ summers in the past 30 years, with nothing out of the ordinary otherwise, hardly evidence of Climate Change.
Where is the Climate Emergency?
Sorry to sound smug but we baby boomers have had it all. And now in the autumn of our years we have warmer summers. I loved the “heat wave”this year , however short lived. What’s not to like about Mediterranean weather?
But averages of geographical averages of max-min tell you nothing, particularly where high temperatures were caused by warm air from Africa rather than “summer”. Was it actually hotter than 1976? You can’t tell from max-min data.
Footling about with o.1 degrees is beside the point. What’s unmistakable is that the predictions of imminent doom by heat made over the last thirty years have proved bogus. As in fake. As in hysterical lying.
I’m over here in West Houston, TX and we are told that we had record breaking heat and drought. Some days were indeed warmer than usual due mainly to the relative humidity being lower and the atmosphere had less mass to be heated. We need a “temp” measurement that can manage the water vapor influence in a proper way. The rain in the last 2 weeks has returned us to near normal annual rain fall .
Wet and dry bulb thermometers?
“…relative humidity…”
I have no problem with the modern type of forecast: “High 29 C, Will Feel like 32 C.” Can then indulge in the usual inane pleasantries with the neighbours; “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity!” or, in the winter,”Watch out for that wind-chill!”
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We need a “temp” measurement that can manage the water vapor influence in a proper way.
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There is a set of calculations to identify the energy content of the air. My calculations for the Coningsby (UK) highest recorded air temperature of 40.3 Celcius (19th July 2022) indicated that the energy content of the air was lower than the previous record (Cambridge 25th July 2019, 38.7 Celcius). My view is that this undermines the belief that increased energy content = increased air temperature = global warming.
To summarise: at Coningsby (19th July 2022, 40.3 Celcius), the energy content of the air was lower than at Cambridge (25th July 2019, 38.7 Celcius) but the air temperature was higher. Perhaps other contributers could have a go at the calculations.
“…the calculations…”
What sort of calculations are you doing?
Calculations that are outside of my comfort zone. There must surely be a contributor who is confident to state the energy content of the air at Coningsby when 40.3C was measured and at Cambridge when 38.7C was measured. I’ll dig up my source material re: relative humidity.
I could not find an online calculator that could undertake the calculations in one step.
I used https://www.timeanddate.com/ for historical weather data at Coningsby and Cambridge.
“…the energy content of the air…”
‘Energy content’ can refer to different concepts – internal, latent, kinetic, chemical,…The one we want here is kinetic. ‘Kinetic’ is the one directly related to temperature. Absolute temperature and the mean kinetic energy of the molecules of an (ideal) gas are directly proportional. Therefore a typical molecule of the air at Coningsby at 40.3 C (312.3 K) had a kinetic energy which was greater than a molecule of the air at Cambridge at 38.7 C (310.7 K) in the proportion,
312.3 : 310.7
i.e. the kinetic energy was 0.5 % greater. *
But ‘the air’ has not been defined yet. The only logical meaning for our immediate purpose is ‘the air actually present for the moment in an unchanging space at a definite location.’** The number of molecules in this ‘air’depends on the ambient atmospheric pressure. The number is directly proportional to the pressure – whatever the measured pressure is, and however it is being sustained through gravity and the workings of the atmosphere.
I do not know what the ground pressures were at Coningsby and Cambridge, for these ‘records.’ If the pressure at Coningsby happened to be 1% less than at Cambridge the energy content in a standard volume would be 1% less because there would be fewer molecules; and if 1% greater the energy content would be 1% more.
The relative humidty does not come into the calculation directly. It does so indirectly, since water vapour is lighter than the other main consituents of the atmosphere. But all we need is knowledge of the resultant, the actual pressure.
* Assuming the measurements are genuine.
** Say, ‘the cube of space 10 meters length by 10 meters breadth by 10 meters height around you when you are standing in your garden.’ Since measured temperature is always very local it would seem futile to treat of larger volumes.
Thanks for discussion. I guess what i am getting at is that we are trying to use temperature as a measure of the effect of GHG… but the measurement is impacted by the humidity. But its impact is both as a GGH warmer and as a component with high heat capacity. The pressure is also important as we see with lapse rate (and repeated often by Greek named chap Christos or such like on Dr Judith Curry’s site)
@ dave , I’ve attempted to assemble a detailed coherent, concise argument in my own words, but failed dismally. This pdf from 2011 provides some words
Click to access nt-77.pdf
” Presently, air temperature is the key metric for assessing climate change and more specifically global warming over land. A huge body of studies dealing with surface air temperature trends suggest that at global scale, an increase took place over the last century (e.g. 1-5). This widely scrutinized warming observed at the surface and in the troposphere is associated with anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the climate system (6-8), although natural effects have also been suggested as being important (e.g. 9).
However, warming is related to atmospheric energy content and temperature is only one of its components, as emphasized in some studies (10-13). Another component which plays an important role in the warming process is atmospheric moisture content, which has been reported to have increased during the past decades (14-20), although recent studies suggest that this increase has stopped (e.g. 21) and even reversed (e.g. 22). A broader assessment of warming could, therefore, take into consideration moist enthalpy, which includes both temperature and moisture and denotes the heat content of air. ”
This is the data that I used:
Coningsby, 19th July 2022
40 centigrade
1009 millibars
16% humidity
Cambridge, July 25th 2019
38 centigrade
1009 millibars
35% humidity
I excluded wind speed from my calculations, is this significant?
timeanddate shows windspeed as follows:
Coningsby, 19th July 2022
19mph
Cambridge, July 25th 2019
11mph
Almost everyone asks why the BBC or the Met office or sundry others continue to blame climate change . As with most things in life, money,politics,or both.
Believers such as the BBC and the Met Office are entrenched in their beliefs. “Group think” also plays a role, as does peer pressure and the fact that to be a non-believer could be professional suicide in some sectors.
Here’s one for you:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/no-named-atlantic-hurricanes-for-most-of-july-and-august-first-time-since-1941-forecaster_4704244.html?