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The Ice Free Arctic–Part II

September 27, 2022

By Paul Homewood

Arctic sea ice extent hit its annual minimum on 16th September this year, at 4.65 million sq km, according to NSIDC. This is virtually the same as last year, and you have to go back to 2014 to find a greater extent, and

there is considerably more ice around this year than in 2007 and 2008.


There was a climate shift in the Arctic in 2007, when warm Atlantic waters entered the Arctic basin and ocean currents pushed a lot of the thicker multi-year ice out through the Fram Strait, which lies between Greenland and Svalbard, into the open Atlantic Ocean, where unsurprisingly it melted.

Since 2007, much of the ice has consequently been thinner, new ice, which naturally tends to melt away in summer.

Climate scientists with an agenda to peddle jumped on the bandwagon then, and predicted that the ice would just carry on melting. However, they ignored the lesson of history.

The Atlantic Ocean regularly goes through such cyclical events, with cold and warm phases lasting about 50 to 60 years. The cycle is called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation , or AMO, and it is known to have been occurring for at least the last thousand years.

Back in the 1970s, climate scientists were extremely concerned about the growth in sea ice in the Arctic, which occurred during the cold phase of the AMO. The leading climatologist of his day HH Lamb wrote in 1982:

“a greatly increased flow of the cold East Greenland Current has in several years (especially 1968 and 1969, but also 1965, 1975 and 1979) brought more Arctic sea ice to the coasts of Iceland than for fifty years. In April-May 1968 and 1969, the island was half surrounded by ice, as had not occurred since 1888.

Satellite monitoring of Arctic sea ice only began in 1979, at the depth of the cold period. Unsurprisingly, the climate mafia always use this period as the baseline, pretending it used to be the “norm”. That way they can attempt to fool the public that the warming in the Arctic and loss of ice since then is due to man-made global warming.

What is astonishing however is that these buffoons are still in a job and living off the taxpayer.

In any other field of science, to be so consistently wrong for so long would have quickly led to a well earned oblivion.

  1. David A permalink
    September 27, 2022 2:29 pm

    But the models say it shouldn’t be there!!
    So they could be wrong (yet again)! Now there’s a surprise…….or not.
    Bet the Beeb doesn’t broadcast the truth that Paul has posted.

  2. Chris Davie permalink
    September 27, 2022 3:10 pm

    All well said, but two small comments – the graph of the AMO needs some units on the vertical axis and I see you have used the curve of ice volume which, as you have mentioned, is influenced by much of the ice being relatively recently formed. On the other hand, I see that the Arctic ice area (as opposed to extent or volume) was the highest minimum this year for several years.

  3. cookers52 permalink
    September 27, 2022 3:49 pm

    “In any other field of science, to be so consistently wrong for so long would have quickly led to a well earned oblivion”

    No Paul, they normally are made Fellows of the Royal Society, and receive a Knighthood.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 29, 2022 10:52 am

      In the public sector if you fail you are usually promoted to a better job.

  4. Tim Spence permalink
    September 27, 2022 4:02 pm

    DMI has the minimum extent at over 5m km2 but they use a different method of measurement. As for NOAA their AMO graph doesn’t have units for the y axis in the raw data, such attention to detail in offical data.

    When the extent reached its maximum in March in was 15m km2 which means it was 107% full because the Arctic Ocean is smaller at 14m km2.

    Interesting how the volume and extent are out of phase at their maximums,
    Max extent March, Max volume May but for the minimum they go back in phase. That’s especially weird when you understand the daily extent is at the mercy of wind and ocean currents but always seems to hit its minimum in the 3rd week of Sept.

  5. Stuart Hamish permalink
    September 27, 2022 4:22 pm

    Arctic sea ice has stabilized since 2008 and as Paul astutely observed , the 1979 start date is a deceptive chronological ‘truncation trick ” …If I may add one qualification : 1979 is the year denoting global satellite coverage . Arctic sea ice extent was still mapped by satellite in the 1960’s and early 1970’s and this data was cut and pasted onto the standard post 1979 series by Tony Heller to illustrate the deceptive mainstream narrative

  6. ancientpopeye permalink
    September 27, 2022 4:43 pm

    Of course there is, however don’t let the facts get in the way of green garbage.

  7. Dave Andrews permalink
    September 27, 2022 5:38 pm

    Lamb also noted that the coalport at Spitsbergen (Svalbard) was open to shipping for 3 months of the year before 1920 but for over 7 months of the year by the late 1930s. So considerable warming of the Arctic area in early 20thC

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      September 27, 2022 6:01 pm

      Very famous rapid warming event, local though. Still not really satisfactorily explained.

  8. John189 permalink
    September 27, 2022 6:36 pm

    I can’t locate the reference at the moment but I believe that during the construction of the Trans Siberian Railway in the 1890s parts* made in Newcastle-upon-Tyne were shipped to the route via the Arctic Ocean and the River Ob. *From memory these consisted of the panels of a large ferry to be bolted together in Siberia and powered by boilers built in St Petersburg for use on Lake Baikal. Even in the cold 1890s the north-east passage was open in summer, at least as far as Obdorsk.

  9. avro607 permalink
    September 28, 2022 12:29 pm

    @dave andrews above:see Pauls blog on March 10 2018-“The Changing Artic Nov 1922,where an expedition from Norway measured the waters off Spitzbergen,normally at 3 deg C,now 15 deg C.That was Aug. 1922.Dr. Hoel and C apt.Ingebrightsen made many comments about the disappearing glaciers and warm water species of fish in abundance at that time.
    Newspapers down the eastern seaboard of the USA,made comments on how warm water fish had disappeared and been replaced by cold water fish.
    I do not know how to put Pauls blog onto this one,so perhaps Paul or one of you cleverer guys than I ,could do that.
    Its worth a read.

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