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September Arctic Sea Ice Trends

October 8, 2022

By Paul Homewood

We looked at the Arctic sea ice minimum for this year a couple of weeks ago. But the average for September as a whole is much more relevant.

In fact it shows very similar results this year, with average September extent slightly below last year, but otherwise the highest since 2014, and also much greater than in 2007:

Note the grossly misleading trend line, loved by all Arctic alarmists! Their trend cannot conceal the fact that the ice extent stopped declining in 2007.

The ice could remain stable for the next century, but DMI’s overall trend line would still show a long term decline decline.

  1. Matelot65 permalink
    October 8, 2022 10:12 am

    Seems a strange starting point? What happened before 1981, like back to the 1920s?

    • John Cook permalink
      October 8, 2022 10:31 am

      I’d guess 1979/80 was a peak year.

    • Ian Johnson permalink
      October 8, 2022 10:56 am

      I’d say that’s when satellite measurements started. Anything before then doesn’t suit the climate change narrative. Observed data is an inconvenient truth for the alarmists.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      October 8, 2022 9:48 pm

      Satellite measurements started before 1979 but that year had maximum ice, so a decline is always shown. (Remember 1979 was a very cold winter in North America and peak “Ice Age coming” time).

      In March 1959, the submarine USS Skate (SSN 578) became the first submarine to surface through arctic ice at the North Pole. Skate and USS Seadragon conducted the first two-boat rendezvous at the North Pole in 1962. HMS Dreadnought surfaced at the North Pole on March 3, 1971.

      On March 9, 1986 the U.S. Navy nuclear-powered attack submarines USS Connecticut and USS Hartford surfaced through three feet of ice near Camp Skate. The Royal Navy fleet submarine HMS Trenchant surfaced on March 14 to join the American boats. Later 3 british subs made a rendezvous there.

      There have been numerous other visits, including by Russian ones.
      Will they may need to install traffic lights?

  2. that man permalink
    October 8, 2022 10:54 am

    Afore ye go…..
    Heads-up from NetZero Watch:
    —or even third-world status….
    Have a good hol.

  3. Ben Vorlich permalink
    October 8, 2022 11:06 am

    That graph has never looked like a straight line to me.
    Flat 1979 – 1996, decline 1997-2006, flat 2006-?
    There’s not enough data to know anything about how the Arctic Sea behaves in long term cycles

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 9, 2022 8:53 am

      Me neither. There seems to have been a lack of colder summers (or maybe cold winters) from around 2000 and that may now be stabilising. Prior to that it looks like just variance, not trend.

  4. October 8, 2022 11:12 am

    This battle of the trends is a very effective tool for the Communist inspired Alarmists.

    If one were to very much slow down an average car trip to say a life time; then one could easily generate many a total panic by cherry picking what was recorded on the speedometer.-; particularly if you propagate the fact that “speed kills”.

    I never take note of these trend graphs; they are designed to send a message and usually a duff one. Take it from me-; a trend graph which fails to provide ACTUAL base temperature is not worth a carrot.

    For instance what on earth does a rise of 1.5deg.C TARGET mean if you don’t mention the starting figure? Would you get duped by that?

    It seems the worlds elite Politicians have swallowed it, with not one daring to say what the temperature must be in the year 3000.🤔🤯.
    Best hang on to your sanity.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      October 8, 2022 11:47 am

      The starting figure was sort of roundabout roughly before the industrial revolution. Whether our industrial revolution or the German one or the American one is hard to say which makes the 1.5° figure (recently downgraded from an equally pluck-it-out-of-the-air-and-see-if-it-squawks 2°) whatever you care to say it is.

      • October 8, 2022 1:05 pm

        Yes indeed. I look at all those snowy robin infested Christmas cards and guess it must have been pretty cold in those days; but the scientists seem very reluctant to tell me.

    • October 8, 2022 8:35 pm

      And cite the temperatures in Kelvin. C and F ranges are not useful for scientific work. A graph of temperatures in Kelvin would go a long way towards ending the global warming hysteria.

      • October 9, 2022 5:09 pm

        Thanks hadn’t thought of that. Yes could possibly help.

        Another aspect I have in mind is that temperature is NOT a very good metric to use where climate matters are concerned. This being due VOLUME being the inverse of temperature in the gas laws.

        This very much crops up where water evaporation is involved; as absorbed radiative energy in a large body of water results in the energy being converted into the large increase in volume (denoted by the misnomer of Latent Heat) in the Vapor produced at CONSTANT temperature.
        For this reason amongst others Engineers use the term Enthalpy rather than energy; for this then includes other factors In the energy balance not involving temperature. For instance: If one moves a rock uphill a bit then it has increased Enthalpy due to the increase in Potential energy; but with no temperature increase.
        Don’t know what you think about that; but for I would like to discuss this aspect with someone willing to bend an ear away from politics.

  5. Gamecock permalink
    October 8, 2022 11:21 am

    ‘Their trend cannot conceal the fact that the ice extent stopped declining in 2007.’

    That’s sad. I want to see the Arctic Sea open to shipping half the year.

    • dave permalink
      October 8, 2022 11:46 am

      If the Arctic Ocean WERE open for the whole summer, the cost-saving to World Shipping would be immense, and it would be a bonanza for Canada and Alaska! But it isn’t likely to happen. Clear historical cycles indicate that the Arctic should become increasingly inhospitable over the next fifty years, basing this prediction on clear historical cycles.

      • dave permalink
        October 8, 2022 12:31 pm

        “Clear historical cycles” twice. Homer nodded.

  6. C Lynch permalink
    October 8, 2022 11:56 am

    I understood that there was reliable satellite data on Arctic ice back to the early 1970s but that ice extents were low at that point. Coincidence therefore that an an extremely anomalous year of high ice extent was used as the starting point? I doubt it.

    • bobn permalink
      October 8, 2022 1:15 pm

      Yes, I have a graph going back to 1925 but the site wont let me paste.
      The Arctic ice was less than now from 1930 to 1960. It grew from 1953 to 1979 and then went into a slow decline which stopped in 2007.
      Hmm, that old 30yr cycle we observe everywhere. AMO anyone?

  7. Coeur de Lion permalink
    October 8, 2022 4:06 pm

    And the appallingly sad crash of polar bear numbers from 8000 on the ‘fifties to c.31,000 today – all caused by climate change,sorry, global warming.

  8. October 9, 2022 9:32 am

    Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report
    Updated: September 28, 2016

    This data shows ice volume “is accelerating downward,” Wadhams said. “There doesn’t seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.

    “By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. … (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free.”
    – – –
    What went wrong?

  9. October 9, 2022 1:39 pm

    Here’s the September arctic ice results

    16 yr. Plateau September Arctic Ice 2022

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