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No BBC , There Were No Record Excess Deaths This Summer

October 16, 2022

By Paul Homewood


Hurricane Ian left 131 people dead in its wake, but according to the BBC that was nothing compared to the death toll which resulted from a few hot days in Britain this summer!




As the UK endured record high temperatures of 40C this summer, there were around 3,000 more deaths in the over-65s than usual in England and Wales – the highest figure since 2004.

Many happened during the hottest days towards the end of July and in early August.

The data comes from a report by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Experts say it shows just how dangerous hot weather can be.

"These estimates show clearly that high temperatures can lead to premature death for those who are vulnerable," said Isabel Oliver, chief scientific officer at the UKHSA.

"A warming climate means we must adapt to living safely with hotter summers in the future."

There were five heat-periods between June and August 2022 – defined as days when the average temperature is greater than 20°C in central England.

During those periods, there were 3,271 excess deaths – 6.2% above the five-year average – out of a total of 56,303 deaths in England and Wales.

As you may suspect, the BBC is trying to mislead you. As the article goes on to explain, deaths quickly fell below average in the days following those hot spells, indicating that the heatwave merely triggered deaths a few days before they would have happened anyway:



In other words, they did not die of the heat, but because of dementia and other underlying conditions. No doubt, we would expect to see the same sort of daily spikes following a spell of cool, wet weather in summer.

The actual data from the ONS tells a much more nuanced story.

For a start, although the age-standardised mortality rate in August 2022 was up on the previous year, it was below that of 2016, suggesting that it was not weather related:

Figure 1 Mortality rates for August 2022 were statistically significantly higher compared with August 2021 in both England and Wales

And when we look at excess deaths, we see that deaths have been rising above the five-year average since March, after being below during the winter. Clearly this trend is not weather-related: there are other factors at play.

Figure 7 In England, year-to-date excess deaths in 2022 were lower using the 2016 to 2019, and 2021 average than the 2015 to 2019 average, because of the second wave of COVID-19 in 2021

This trend also shows up in the ASMRs, for instance England Males, with this summer having the highest rate since 2016. Again, there is no evidence that the rise this summer is heat-related, because the summer of 2018 was just as hot, yet had one of the lowest death rates:


And as ever, we find that, heatwave or no heatwave, seasonal death rates this year were again the lowest in the summer:


If the BBC believes that heat causes excess deaths in summer, maybe they could explain why many more people die during the pleasant weather during spring every year?




It has been commented that the 2020 summer ASMR is the lowest of the lot, which appears strange in the middle of the pandemic!

This explanation from ONS helps:

“Following this, overall mortality rates generally decreased to a low of 749.3 deaths per 100,000 people in August 2020, which was significantly lower than the August ASMR for all prior years, despite the onset of the coronavirus pandemic that year. This could be a mortality displacement effect, where people’s deaths were brought forward to earlier in 2020 during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, who would have otherwise died during August.”


  1. Harry Passfield permalink
    October 16, 2022 7:36 pm

    ‘estimates’?? The ONS says, ‘estimates’?? Well, I estimate that they’re all a load of idiots. Give me the million-pound grant and I’ll prove it – or die (eventually) trying.

  2. Martin Burlin permalink
    October 16, 2022 7:37 pm

    Can’t wait to see what they write if we have a really cold snap, with all that snow, that the BBC claims, we will never see in the future.

  3. Joe Public permalink
    October 16, 2022 7:51 pm

    For context:

    July 2022, The Lancet Planetary Health, “Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis”:

    “The small-area assessment estimated that each year in England and Wales, there was on average 791 excess deaths (empirical 95% CI 611–957) attributable to heat and 60 573 (55 796–65 145) attributable to cold, corresponding to standardised excess mortality rates of 1·57 deaths (empirical 95% CI 1·21–1·90) per 100 000 person-years for heat and 122·34 deaths (112·90–131·52) per 100 000 person-years for cold.”

  4. Martin Brumby permalink
    October 16, 2022 7:54 pm

    It is extremely likely that the majority of excess deaths was caused specifically by the NHS / UKHSA / Government / Opposition / Sage and their gross mismanagement of the Covid Plandemic and, particularly the Gene Therapy / Bioweapon “Vaccines”. The death count is mounting, to the great satisfaction of all the bodies listed above and also including the BBC.

    A couple of decent hot days? Don’t be so silly. How many of the dementia cases were provided with a fan or air-conditioner, or even an ajar window?

    • October 16, 2022 8:31 pm

      I reckon dementia patients tend to forget to drink and nursing staff tend not to provide extra salt. BOTH contributors to death.

    • Gamecock permalink
      October 16, 2022 9:21 pm

      There are over one hundred million Americans who didn’t get the jab. And NOT ONE of them regrets it.

      • Realist permalink
        October 16, 2022 11:24 pm

        I rather suspect most people only got the jab because otherwise they could not travel rather than actually being at risk of the pandemic that never was.

      • John Hultquist permalink
        October 17, 2022 3:30 am

        “And NOT ONE of them regrets it.”
        Especially the dead ones.

        “otherwise they could not travel”
        Most Americans are used to getting shots to protect their health and I suspect this carried over to covid. Some that wanted or needed to travel with a need for masks and shots did so. Percentage unknown, but not “most.”

      • Gamecock permalink
        October 17, 2022 10:53 am

        Dear John, more people with the shot died than people without the shot.

      • October 17, 2022 11:04 am

        Oh those deplorables again!

      • Gamecock permalink
        October 17, 2022 11:29 am

        “According to recent data from over 8,000 Walgreens stores in the United States, the unvaccinated have the lowest incidence of COVID-19, and vaccinated people are more likely to test positive.

        Indeed, it is the pandemic of the vaccinated.”

      • October 17, 2022 11:58 am

        Count me in….I believe my last injections against disease were in 1968 when we traveled to Australia via Japan and Thailand. Prior I had the 3 together after birth, smallpox and polio. Have not even had a cold since I added zinc to the vit. D. Stopped wearing a mask in Dec. 2020.

        Stores had signs that unless you were “fully vaccinated” you had to wear a mask. But they never said for what, so I sailed right in knowing that smallpox and polio had not a chance with me.

      • Gamecock permalink
        October 17, 2022 3:22 pm

        Joan, I think the elites have poisoned the well for vaccines. As you and I experienced personally, the smallpox and polio vaccines worked very well. I have a great grand father buried in Fayette County, WV, who died of smallpox. Edmond had two outbreaks of smallpox late 19th and early 20th centuries, that literally decimated the population.

        Growing up in Aiken, SC, 1953-1967, I knew several people who had been crippled by polio. Every kid knew what an “iron lung” was.

        No one dies of smallpox anymore. Few get polio any more.

        The legacy of the Covid vaccine is it doesn’t work very well, and has serious – even fatal – side effects. As Hultquist said, “Most Americans are used to getting shots to protect their health and I suspect this carried over to covid.”

        This won’t happen in the future. ‘Vaccines’ will forever more be suspect.

  5. chriskshaw permalink
    October 16, 2022 8:03 pm

    There is a Substack poster who has just undergone training in recognizing dis and mis- information. Might be of interest to Paul.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      October 16, 2022 9:03 pm

      If you’ve been interested in the subject for a while, Nazi uniform wearing Cook, his fraudulent 97% consensus paper, and the laughable propaganda skeptical science site are very old news.

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      October 17, 2022 12:00 am

      If you are looking for ‘dis and mis- information’ –
      John Cook’s “Skeptical Science site is a great place to go … it’s full of it !!!

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        October 17, 2022 6:02 am

        John Cook the cognitive psychologist fond of photoshopping himself as a Nazi officer as some sort of ” in house ” Skeptical Science joke …… Can he share the insights into his and Lewandowskys personalities with us ?

  6. October 16, 2022 8:31 pm

    The age standardised summer deaths chart shows the lowest illustrated excess deaths per 1000 in 2020. Perhaps I have missed something but wasn’t a global pandemic raging at the time?

    • October 16, 2022 9:40 pm

      The figures exclude COVID, which implies that deaths from COVID were grossly overstated

    • October 16, 2022 9:51 pm

      According to the ONS:

      “Following this, overall mortality rates generally decreased to a low of 749.3 deaths per 100,000 people in August 2020, which was significantly lower than the August ASMR for all prior years, despite the onset of the coronavirus pandemic that year. This could be a mortality displacement effect, where people’s deaths were brought forward to earlier in 2020 during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, who would have otherwise died during August.”

      Also see Fig 3, which shows how how low mortality rates fell in the summer of 2020

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 17, 2022 11:02 am

      Not in the UK, no. Covid deaths were at virtually zero then – actual Covid rather than registered Covid as various analyses of hospital admissions show.

  7. catweazle666 permalink
    October 16, 2022 8:53 pm

    First we’re told that “During those periods, there were 3,271 excess deaths” and then that the number comes from an “estimate” from the ONS.
    Not 3,721 or 3,723, 3721.
    A fine example of False Precision Syndrome there!

    • Gamecock permalink
      October 16, 2022 9:23 pm


      I want to see the 3,721 death certificates.

  8. Mark Hodgson permalink
    October 16, 2022 9:24 pm


    JIT has also discussed this at Cliscep.

  9. Nicholas permalink
    October 16, 2022 9:42 pm

    The BBC are institutionally dumb.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      October 16, 2022 9:56 pm

      It was the last episode of Frozen Planet II tonight, I can guess what it was like. DA goes full climate doom on the last program of each series these days.

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        October 17, 2022 9:15 am

        …but only to be continued through the (now) abysmal CountryFile.

      • Coeur de Lion permalink
        October 17, 2022 9:45 am

        I loved the end of Blue Planet where we had the death of the Great Barrier Reef, flooded Miami streets and sea shells in a fizzing bath of acid

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      October 17, 2022 6:19 am

      The BBC is institutionally corrupt – not dumb …. The BBC has always been a conduit for British government and intelligence services policy and propaganda and today that means ‘Net Zero ” advocacy , the climate emergency narrative and ‘green espionage ” ….The Information Policy Unit and its ‘useful lies ” was never really disbanded

      • Gerry, England permalink
        October 17, 2022 1:39 pm

        If you take money from the evil Bill Gates you have to deliver be that climate lies, vaccine lies, etc.

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        October 18, 2022 8:25 am

        Its strings attached money from the government that has corrupted climate science and journalism Gerry …..Starting
        33 years ago the East Anglia Climate Research Unit at the heart of the Climategate scandal were expected to deliver on data manipulation and the BBC revisionist series ” The Trick ‘ painted them as martyred saints

  10. Gamecock permalink
    October 16, 2022 10:27 pm

    ‘There were five heat-periods between June and August 2022 – defined as days when the average temperature is greater than 20°C in central England.’

    68°F. Are you the same people who defeated the Nazis 75 years ago?

  11. cookers52 permalink
    October 17, 2022 12:37 am

    The people who died on hot days were mainly old with pre existing morbidity.
    As I know personally common medications given to lots of us old folk make us dehydrated, and in hot weather that can be dangerous.
    I nearly succumbed, blood pressure went really lowest, but realised what might be happening and sought urgent medical intervention.
    So I’m still here.

    • Gamecock permalink
      October 17, 2022 7:17 pm

      Interesting. My millennial (nee 1988) son’s bout with Covid had only one serious symptom: debilitating dehydration. Emergency room put him on IV for a few hours, which fixed him up fine. Little sore throat for a few days afterwards.

      I was impressed that the E doctor figured out instantly what the problem was. He SAVED MY SON! Eventually, I realized he was seeing a lot of Covid cases, so he knew dehydration was a common symptom. It wasn’t magic, it was experience.

  12. HotScot permalink
    October 17, 2022 1:49 am

    I don’t give a monkeys about data when we know these numbers are in the midst of a covid crisis, and emerging vaccination crisis, from which no one knows how many people died.

    Meaningless bilge from the BBC.

  13. cookers52 permalink
    October 17, 2022 4:55 am

    If you read what Sara Caul (head of mortality ONS) says then there are no excess deaths due to the heatwave, it appears that the very hot days were challenging for those close to death, so they died.
    In consequence the following days had less excess deaths.
    ONS estimate excess deaths in 2022 compared to a 5 year average, the 5 year average used is 2016-19 and 2021. 2020 is missed out due to COVID-19 deaths skewing the data.
    As always there is uncertainty in the methods ONS use but they chose to compare against a simple 5 year average so the public could better understand. There are much more complex ways of working out excess deaths but the uncertainty remains.

  14. Steve permalink
    October 17, 2022 6:36 am

    The record temperature for 2022 was fiddled, as usual. I was in east London during the 40C spell and on the road going to the supermarket in late afternoon at the peak the car thermometer showed 37C. In the shade on the north side of my house it was 32C.
    As pointed out above, the excess deaths followed the booster jab roll out.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      October 17, 2022 11:16 am

      “When I use a number,” as Humpty Dumpty didn’t say, “it means what I want it to mean …”
      I have three thermometers scattered around the place — my “official” one which is on a windowsill that never gets the sun, a “garden” one which is in full sun but angled so that the bulb never is, and a movable one which is moved about to catch highs and lows in different spots.
      Our record “official” high for the 12 years we have been here is 38°. Since we are in south Burgundy a 40° temperature in the UK sounds either freakish or unreliable! The max on the garden one is 46° which also suggests that an ‘honest’ 40° in the UK could be questionable. The ‘movable’ one has recorded 58° in the suntrap by the garage at late afternoon!
      I only cite these figures to demonstrate just how useless “the temperature” is as a means of ‘proving’ anything. As far as I know it was long since established that heatwave deaths were ‘borrowed’ from subsequent weeks while it is winter cold which is the genuine killer.
      Any (allegedly) reputable organisation that tries to link heatwave mortality to climate change is simply being dishonest. And must know it.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        October 17, 2022 11:45 am

        I wouldn’t dispute the fact we had 1 or 2 freak hot days and a lot of station records fell, weather is random/chaotic and does that! I’d also argue that with all the ever increasing UHI we reached the point where recording 40C somewhere was inevitable.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        October 17, 2022 1:47 pm

        The ‘record’ high was at RAF Coningsby which would be a contaminated site. Funny how rarely the ‘RAF’ bit gets mentioned…

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        October 17, 2022 4:57 pm

        RAF Coningsby. Just the same time as a flight of 4 Typhoons took off. Funny, that.

  15. kjbirby permalink
    October 17, 2022 7:34 am

    Take any ‘estimate’ by the ONS with a pinch of salt: on their Covid webpage they state that 30 percent of Britons are currently wearing a face mask out-of-doors, when it’s perfectly obvious to even the casual observer that it’s more like one in 500!

  16. Pancho Plail permalink
    October 17, 2022 9:15 am

    The point many people seem to miss is that the record high temperatures did not occur uniformly over the UK, and in fact only broke the record at one specific location.
    The high temperatures were across a swathe of England that is sparsely populated and so will have hit comparatively few people.

    • Coeur de Lion permalink
      October 17, 2022 9:50 am

      26degs and raining in Plymouth

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      October 17, 2022 11:05 am

      Exactly. Did these supposed deaths correlate with temperature? Impassioned know as the excess deaths don’t appear in the data if broken down into small enough regions to match temperature.

      So we probably have the Exposure Fallacy once again.

  17. Matthew Clarke permalink
    October 17, 2022 9:48 am

    I wouldn’t trust the BBC if they told me night followed day !
    Why would I believe made up headlines about the weather, which they continuously lie about, like everything else?

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      October 17, 2022 5:01 pm

      Bolshevik BS Corruption.

  18. Phoenix44 permalink
    October 17, 2022 10:58 am

    And as increases in longevity have slowed or perhaps stopped, deaths will rise back to the levels of the pre-longevity increase. In effect we have “banked” thousands of deaths which will now be drawn down probably quite quickly. And of course the last 3 years are all over the place in terms of deaths.

  19. europeanonion permalink
    October 17, 2022 12:27 pm

    Sit out in freezing weather, you might experience euphoria, by which time it will be too late. For the BBC assertion to carry weight each case of premature deaths would need analysis by a coroner. Were those involved mindful of heat exhaustion or did they carry-on with their normal exercise routines say? There could have been so many instances of self-neglect in their summation as to invalidate the pronouncement. Individuals maybe have been so adoring of the pleasant environment, as opposed to our normal rag-bag of conditions that they overdid their sun indulgence. This is a mast year and the crop of wild fruit is at immense levels here. Perhaps nature is trying to tell us something.

  20. It doesn't add up... permalink
    October 17, 2022 1:28 pm

    It seems to me that the modelling for this is completely arbitrary, and has proceeded without proper analysis of the data. Much emphasis has been placed on 2022 without really establishing proper comparisons with the effects of heat in earlier years. Was there a spike in exces mortality in 1976?

    The idea that a daily average temperature should act as an on off switch at a threshold level is equally absurd. It seems likely that if there is an effect, it will become more prevalent as temperatures rise, and that a heat stroke effect would tend to kill within quite a short period. The starting point needs to be to look at scatter plots of deaths against temperature on the day, then one, two days etc. prior until it is plain that there is no residual effect. This needs to be done across a good number of years so that the risks of confounding factors are reduced. It might then be possible to see if excess deaths are a short term phenomenon, advancing death by days or at most weeks, or whether they represent more serious shortening of life.

    Clearly indoor temperature is likely to be the important metric, so overheated homes may need at least passive cooling measures, if not air conditioning, if a significant effect can be found.

    This earlier work struggled to find a significant heat death effect

    It is rather entertaining, opiates in its methodology.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      October 17, 2022 1:29 pm

      how did better otivated become entertaining opiates?

  21. Ben Vorlich permalink
    October 17, 2022 1:51 pm

    I think that I’ve read several times that for heatwaves dearhs are brought forward weeks or days with a decline once the heat has passed, as in this case.
    Paris 2003 was similar compounded by the fact it was over a long period in August when France goes on congé annuel leaving aged family without support. Getting anything done in France in August is virtually impossible

  22. Harald permalink
    October 17, 2022 3:38 pm

    Those blaming the Covid VACCINES for excess deaths are far closer to the truth than anything involving some warming in the atmosphere. The liars in the media are trying to hide all these vaccine related deaths in any manner possible.

    • Gamecock permalink
      October 18, 2022 1:47 am

      Older people with the vaccine drop their guard. They presume the vaccine works, and they can resume their normal behavior.

      Potentially a fatal mistake. A nasty trick the government has played on them.

      • dave permalink
        October 18, 2022 6:37 pm

        “…drop their guard…”

        What? You think we oldies should stay locked in our bedrooms until we fall off our perches?

        Utter rubbish.

        What we DO have is a now permanent situation; every week, a thousand excess deaths are taking place in England and Wales which have nothing to do with being infected by the mild Omicron variety of Covid-19. The death rate has gone up by an astonishing 15% and it is staying up. No prizes for spotting the reason. And no, it is not because the NHS is ‘undertreating’ cancer.

  23. cookers52 permalink
    October 18, 2022 6:47 am

    In my view there is nothing wrong with the ONS estimate of excess deaths and when they occurred, also ONS explain in some detail how this led to lower than expected mortality following the hot days.
    Excess mortality during the pandemic is a subject of much speculation and research. ONS produce a wide ranging analysis of excess deaths due to Covid, and largely use information from death certificates, which can be problematic as death certificates are far from a perfect data source. However ONS explain in detail how some uncertainty remains, but in my view in simple terms choosing the numbers from whatever source show that covid-19 has killed around 150k -200k people in UK since the start of pandemic. The overwhelming majority of these deaths are old people, and ONS are showing a fall in life expectancy as a result.

  24. cookers52 permalink
    October 18, 2022 7:18 am

    A paradox of pandemic mortality statistics is that during the first 2 years of pandemic(lockdowns etc) mortality in the U18 age group (children) was 6% lower than expected so even though the paradigm is that children were badly affected by pandemic restrictions it appears to have been good for their health.
    If you are over 70 like me the pandemic mortality statistics are very depressing and it looks likely that the much maligned Prof Ferguson estimate of 250k deaths will actually become reality, and all the vaccines and lockdowns did was delay the process for a bit.

  25. dave permalink
    October 18, 2022 10:14 am

    …”much maligned Prof Ferguson…”

    You mean ‘much malignable.’

    Professor Ferguson in the (‘it must be true’) Guardian newspaper, 2005, talking about coming deaths from the “bird flu:”

    “Around 40 million people died in [the] Spanish flu outbreak,” he told the newspaper. “There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.” I like the dangling modifier ‘probably.’ That grammatical error is always a sign of a lazy and muddled brain.

    Actually there were three times more people on the planet in 2005 than in 1920, not six times, but a 100% error in a basic fact is quite accurate for him.

    It is now an historical fact that actual recorded deaths in the world from that bird flu outbreak amounted to 455.

    The Omicron variety of Covid-19 is so mild that you almost have nothing to worry about, unless you are over 80 [sic] and fat.

    What actually was said about Covid-19 by Ferguson was, technically, by the team he led at Imperial, and went along the lines of, ‘more than 500,000 people will probably die quickly in the United Kingdom if no special restrictions imposed.’

    I am one of those who believe that the Government ‘commissioned’ all the scary stuff AFTER the decision had been made to go nuts with lockdowns and masks.

    By the way, the price of natural gas in Europe has fallen out of bed – down from a panicky peak of 327 Euro to today’s 121 Euro per MWh. The market economy ALWAYS works if given half a chance. The Government might find it does not need to top-up the power companies’ revenues.

  26. TinyCO2 permalink
    October 18, 2022 10:46 am

    When considering heat wave deaths you can’t talk about seasons ie ‘summer’ While there have been warm periods during most summers, the key is how sustained and how hot those warm periods are. Most homes can protect against some heat, especially if the nights are cooler but this summer saw periods that saw no relief. The difference may even be amount of wind, to allow people to vent some of the heat at night. A better chart to show excess deaths is this Figure 1-

    There’s no obvious evidence that there was a particular drop in deaths post the heatwave spikes. While nowhere near as pronounced as normal winter deaths from cold conditions, there was a heat spike this summer.

    • TinyCO2 permalink
      October 18, 2022 10:49 am

      I’ll add that many hospitals don’t have air conditioning and conditions can be much worse than in homes. I would not be surprised if there was a spike in hospital deaths because of that.

  27. avro607 permalink
    October 18, 2022 11:25 am

    Yes Tiny.Some years ago ,France had a heat wave and many people died.An MP in the UK commented:see,told you so,people die inhot weather.
    The French said that they would install air conditioners in old folks care homes ,so that it would not happen again.
    The UK Govt. was silent,apart from the above comment.

    • TinyCO2 permalink
      October 18, 2022 1:47 pm

      All the way down the line they’ve been reluctant to mitigate against the effects of weather, even as they whine about climate change.

  28. October 20, 2022 9:51 am

    Thank heavens for the ‘safe and effective’ July heatwave of 2021 when nearly twice as many people died per day during the heat period than they did in 2022. Remember the climate changed summer of 2021? Temperatures ‘soared’ to a maximum of 32C for a day or two.

    “So, in 2021, there were 1858+185 (=2043) excess deaths in England and Wales from 16-23 July (8 days). This gives a daily excess death rate of 2043/8=255. Compare this to 10-25 July 2022 when the daily excess was 139. So, we must ask the question: why were so many more people dying in 2021 during a heat period in mid July (which was a lot less severe and prolonged than the heat period in mid July 2022)? If it was primarily heat stress which was killing people, this doesn’t make sense.”

    • TinyCO2 permalink
      October 21, 2022 2:36 pm

      If you can’t remember what was also killing people in July 2021, you might need to seek help…. oh except you don’t believe the answer. The max temperature isn’t the only issue in heat related deaths, it’s the duration. I accept that there are flaws in all sciences and especially in climate change but it really doesn’t help credibility to pretend that weather and/or disease don’t kill people.

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