IEA World Energy Outlook 2022
By Paul Homewood
https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022
The IEA has published its latest annual outlook.
As usual it is based on several scenarios:
The only relevant one is the first, STEPS, which is looks at what governments have actually said they will do. This, by the way, includes Joe Biden’s recent bill, the ludicrously named “Inflation Reduction Act”.
The APS is little more than fairy tale, where governments have promised things like Net Zero eventually, but have no plans on how to achieve it. It is easy for politicians to make silly promises for things in twenty or thirty years time, when they will be long gone.
The key chart is below. Despite the IEA’s optimistic assumptions throughout this report, fossil fuel consumption remains very high even in 2050. Indeed it is still around the level of 2015, when the Paris Agreement was made:
And this is reflected in the projections for CO2. Ignore the pre-Paris baseline, which was never realistic. Under STEPS, emissions in 2050 will only be 12% lower than today. Clearly this proves just how little the world as a whole has actually done, despite the grandiose declarations at Paris and Glasgow.
There were two fundamental flaws underlying the succession of COPs beginning at Paris:
1) Developing countries, including China and India, were effectively exempted from taking any action to reduce emissions.
2) No agreements were made for what would happen after 2030. Countries may or may not hit decarbonisation targets made for 2030, but no further pledges have been made for emission cuts thereafter.
And that is why even the IEA have been forced to accept that the world will still be heavily reliant on fossil fuels for many decades to come.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“Despite the IEA’s optimistic assumptions throughout this report, fossil fuel consumption remains very high even in 2050. Indeed it is still around the level of 2015, when the Paris Agreement was made.”
“And that is why even the IEA have been forced to accept that the world will still be heavily reliant on fossil fuels for many decades to come.”
The reason for that should be obvious. We cannot continue to make the transition to renewables and to electric transportation without using conventional vehicles that run on fossil fuels to do the work. Lithium guzzlers cannot replace gas guzzlers in making, delivering and installing solar, wind or nuclear energy sources. Some reality would help.
Reducing fossil fuel use from 80% to 60% by 2050 is going to achieve NetZero?
Yea, right. And the planet will be lucky to reduce fossil fuel use by low single digits by then never mind 20%.
What are these people smoking?
All they have to do is convince people educated in government schools. How hard could that be?
It will get harder when there is rioting outside. Which us I suppose why the XR types are getting their retaliation in first.
Decarbonisation, like wind turbines, electric cars and tattoos, for example, have nothing good to offer us, only unjustified pleasure.
(A great article.)October 29. 2022
THE GLOBAL WARMING
HOAX
By: Terry M. Campbell
Revised: October 24, 2022
(Emphasis added)
To set the record straight, man influencing climate change is a complete HOAX. Below all of the lower-numbered weather cycles are embedded in each of the higher-numbered weather cycles.
1st cycle – 24-hour or one-day cycle – rotation cycle
2nd cycle – 365¼ day or one-year cycle – orbital cycle
3rd cycle – 11-year cycle with sliding variable beginning–sunspot cycle
4th cycle – 26,000-year cycle – axis wobble cycle
5th cycle – 100,000-year cycle – expanding/contracting orbit cycle
We are slightly past the middle of the 100,000-year 5th cycle (about the mean average distance from the sun). We are currently leaving the warming trend and entering into the cooling phase of the predictable 4th cycle (26,000-year cycle–axis wobble). The current tilt on the earth’s axis is causing the warmer summers and cooler winters in the northern hemisphere. This is all normal, we humans have absolutely nothing to do with the climate.
(And it goes on from here. Too long to include.)
Link please?
That’s more like it!
HOAX it is, and a complete waste.
This is all wishful thinking, the previous investment in “renewable energy” has not even kept pace with growing demand, let alone reduced fossil fuel use.
Although there are claims that it has been reduced by 1% at a cost of over $3Trillion.
Looking at Fig 1.9 we can see the covid drop in 2020 but they believe that we will see peak coal use midway through this decade. Anyone else agree with that? Seems highly unlikely to me. Oil use continues to grow slightly from the current level and gas use appears stable going forward. But the share of fossil fuels as shown by the yellow line is on a downward trend which I doubt is realistic as very little non-fossil fuel generation is being built.