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Megadroughts In Asia In The Little Ice Age

October 30, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

I came across this paper, which I have not seen before It is from 2010, but still highly relevant.

 

 

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The move of the ITCZ towards the equator during periods of global cooling is a well known phenomenon, and was responsible for the catastrophic Sahel droughts in the 1970s, a period when India also suffered several monsoon failures.

This is the climate which the climate establishment would like us to return to.

8 Comments
  1. Gerry, England permalink
    October 30, 2022 10:41 am

    In the MoS today there is a piece about French champagne houses buying up chalk downland in the South-East and the Bolney Estate in Sussex being bought by a large sparkling wine producer. An industry person claims that this is because our summers are warmer and provide a better growing temperature than the Champagne region as this has also warmer requiring earlier grape picking. I suspect that these claims are unlikely to stand up to scrutiny and that we probably could have grown grapes on our chalk dowland across Kent, Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire and possibly Wiltshire before the current wine boom. An increased return on the acreage is most likely behind the move to growing grapes.

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      October 30, 2022 10:53 am

      I read somewhere, possibly a french TV chanel’s English website, that there is virtually no land left in the Champagne Region to turn into vineyards. So a logical expansion to increase sales of fizzy wine.

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      October 30, 2022 12:46 pm

      Gerry, my home is surrounded by one of the most prestigious UK wine growers.
      https://simpsonswine.com
      Prior to that it was hop farms. It has nothing at all to do with change to the climate rather change to various agricultural “policies” (read subsidies, bungs etc) that have made wine growing much more profitable. As you say, the climate, deep chalk water aquifer and south facing slopes have always been good for vines here.

    • bobn permalink
      October 30, 2022 5:49 pm

      Grapes were grown, and wine was made in England for 1600yrs. Started by the Romans who brought wine vines to England and planted vineyards as far north as hadrians wall. There were still vineyards prospering at the time of the Domesday book in 1086. The most planted area seems to have been Northamptonshire. For a variety of cultural reasons vineyards declined; abolition of the Monasteries (all had wineries and were the wine schools of their day) being a big factor. Finally winemaking was destroyed by the puritan Oliver Cromwell who introduced prohibition and wiped them out. After the Restoration allowed vine growing we had lost all the skills (and were in the peak of the little ice age which wouldnt have helped) so it was easier just to be a nation of importers. We simply forgot we could do it. The revival of english wine over the past 3 decades has been through enthusiasm, a relearning of skills and regaining self-confidence.
      Even 20yrs ago it was common to hear the unpatriotic English moaning that you cant grow grapes or make wine in England despite the evidence of International award winning wines being made, though on small scales.
      The blinkers have now fallen, with the realisation that we always could do it if we just regained the confidence and skills.
      Same thing happened in New Zealand and Australia. In the 70’s monty python did a sketch about Aussie chateau bottled mud. In the 60s NZ was a net importer of wine because ‘everyone knew’ NZ could never make good wine.
      Well everyone was wrong about the potential for great wine from Aus, NZ and England! I rarely drink any wine other than English now (yes there are great english reds as well), and cant remember when i ate a cheese that wasn’t English, since England has more cheese varieties than France..
      Also i’m boycotting French products until they stop sending their garbage across the channel in small dinghys.

  2. Ben Vorlich permalink
    October 30, 2022 10:49 am

    Paul,
    You can spend days looking at the studies here
    https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrIYv9kHknq4&ll=-3.81666561775622e-14%2C118.89756200000005&z=1

    which are mainly identifying, or not, the MWP/MCA but a large number cover far longer periods.

  3. JBW permalink
    October 30, 2022 11:46 am

    Don’t forget that the ITZ is constantly on the move throughout the year and follows the Sun with a delay of around 1-2 months. North of the equator in our summer months. (July/August). Important for aviation as the thunderstorms associated with the ITZ are mega – often up to 50,000 ft, and closely packed. Deviations from track can be common. Not to mention the rain when trying to land with very few navigational aids!

    • October 31, 2022 11:20 am

      And an ITZ is: —: Complete the sentence please JBW.

  4. LeedsChris permalink
    October 30, 2022 3:46 pm

    This drastic climate change in SE Asia described in this article is also likely be at least part of the cause of the collapse of the Khmer empire in Cambodia and their capital of Angkor. At the height of the empire this was one of the largest cities in the world, but it was highly dependent on the monsoon and sophisticated management of water. This system collapsed as periods of mega drought and then flood occurred as the world moved from the medieval warm period into the little ice age.

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