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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2022

December 4, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

 

The Atlantic hurricane season has now officially ended.

On a global basis we have only a few decades of consistent and reliable data for hurricanes. [NB: Hurricanes are referred to as Tropical Cyclones generically. In the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific they are named as hurricanes. In other regions they are labelled as typhoons and cyclones. For simplicity’s sake, I will refer to them as hurricanes in this post]

However hurricanes which have made landfall on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts have been well recorded since the middle of the 19thC, although some area such as Florida and Texas were still sparsely populated until the 1880s meaning some may still have been missed until then.

For years scientists at the US Hurricane Research Division (HRD) have been carefully compiling and re-analysing the wealth of records available in the past, and their data clearly shows that there are no long term trends in the frequency of hurricanes, or major hurricanes (Cat 3 and over):

image

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https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Data on the intensity of hurricanes, ie atmospheric pressure, also fails to reveal any increasing trend:

 

image

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

According to the data however, there has been a noticeable increase in hurricane frequency in the Atlantic Ocean in the last three decades:

 

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https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#atlantic-tcs-by-year-satellite

However as HRD point out, many storms in the middle of the Atlantic were simply never spotted before the satellite era:

 

The Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT) extends back to 1851. However, because tropical storms and hurricanes spend much of their lifetime over the open ocean (some never hitting land) many systems were “missed” during the 19th and early 20th Centuries (Vecchi and Knutson 2008). Starting in 1944, systematic aircraft reconnaissance was commenced for monitoring both tropical cyclones and disturbances that had the potential to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. This did provide much improved monitoring, but still about half of the Atlantic basin was not covered (Sheets 1990). Beginning in 1966, daily satellite imagery became available at the National Hurricane Center, and thus statistics from this time forward are most complete (McAdie et al. 2009). For hurricanes striking the USA Atlantic and Gulf coasts, one can go back further in time with relatively reliable counts of systems because enough people have lived along coastlines since 1900.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#atlantic-tcs-by-year-pre-satellite

All of this is really so self evident that I should not have to mention it. Yet year after year, the climate fraudsters deliberately ignore this fact, and claim that hurricanes are actually becoming more common.

A comparison between 1922 and 2022 rather says it all:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1922.html

image

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

In 1922 there were five tropical storms (incl three hurricanes) officially declared, compared to fourteen this year (eight hurricanes). But in 1922, all five were close to land, and thus easily spotted. This year by contrast most of the storms were out in the middle of the ocean.

Did we never get hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic in the past? Of course not.

When the data is corrected for these missing hurricanes, research shows that these false trends disappear:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2022/10/image-5.png

Fig. 2

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5/figures/2

You may have noted a dip in hurricane frequency in the 1970s and 80s. The recovery in hurricane numbers since then is often wheeled out by the BBC as “proof that global warming is making hurricanes worse”. In fact the decline and recovery is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the natural ocean cycle which is known to have been occurring for at least the last 1000 years. During the cold phase, hurricanes tend to be less frequent and severe, as NOAA explain:

image

 https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/faq/amo_faq.php

Interestingly there have been attempts recently, notably in IPCC reports, to link the 1970s decline to aerosol pollution. However this ignores the fact that the AMO is a known cycle, and the hurricane record shows similar AMO related ups and downs before 1970.

Either way, of course, the increase in hurricane frequency since 1995 has nothing to do with global warming and is not part of any long term trend.

Finally a quick look at global hurricane trends, courtesy of Ryan Maue:

https://climatlas.com/tropical/

Bear in mind these are 12-month running totals, so are relevant for comparison purposes at any time in the year.

Total for both all hurricanes and major hurricanes are close to the lowest on record.

17 Comments
  1. December 4, 2022 12:14 pm

    Well researched and well stated, Paul. But we expect nothing less from you.

  2. Harry Passfield permalink
    December 4, 2022 1:21 pm

    Jeez! I am, as ever, in awe at your analyses, Paul. Thank you for investing your time.

    • chriskshaw permalink
      December 4, 2022 2:15 pm

      Indeed, i read Roger Pielke’s Substack and this analysis meets or probably exceeds his! I really appreciate your efforts and am a frequent silent “listener” to the comments! Joan and Harry are frequent contributors and i see you et al as old friends just keeping me sane. Thank you contributors, you probably do not realize that your erudite retorts are like salve to my brain.

  3. December 4, 2022 2:55 pm

    Most if not all media forecasters got their fingers burnt with over-prediction of Atlantic hurricanes this year, whether pro-alarm or not. Still plenty of unknowns in climate world 🙂

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      December 5, 2022 9:07 am

      If they don’t understand the formation of very large, well-studied phenomenona such as hurricanes well enough to make reasonably skillful forecasts, there is no chance that they understand the 1,000s of smaller, less well-studird complex interactions that make up weather. Indeed, that we can’t predict with any great accuracy the effects of La Ninas on European weather shows how almost completely useless the discipline is. But let’s destroy our economies and societies just in case.

  4. December 4, 2022 3:39 pm

    Off topic

    Just read on blackout news how Iceland is making 7 million Euros a year selling green energy with in the EU. Cleverly this requires no cable to connect it. Yes, they are selling REGOs and effectively legally being paid twice for the electricity generated.

  5. dearieme permalink
    December 4, 2022 3:57 pm

    I was about to suggest that ships’ logs would have recorded mid-ocean hurricanes until I realised that the ships in question might well have sunk.

    That’s what a statistician might refer to delicately as a “selection effect”.

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      December 5, 2022 2:48 am

      Perhaps a selection effect on your part ‘dearie’ as you have not considered the spectrum of possibilities . I would imagine the vessels closer to island ports would have found refuge there and still logged the storms in the captains journals. On reflection this means the ships further out to sea may not have catalogued all the hurricanes with perfect accuracy. The paleo-ecologist Kam Bi Liu has indeed collated the ships log entries and local newsletters chronicling Atlantic hurricanes and East Asian typhoons and the results are intriguing ..There were maximums during the Little Ice Age when surely ocean temperatures were cooler so warming seas are not necessarily a pre-requisite for cyclone formation or intensity . The Australian newspapers excellent environment editor Graham Lloyd noticed that Hurricane Irma 2017 over Atlantic ocean temperatures 2C below the standard threshold and this was at the end of an 11 year duration US landfalling ‘hurricane hiatus ” Another northern Australian paleo-tempest study using oxygen isotope proxies published in Nature Communications showed landfalling cyclone peaks were dated 500 – 1500 years ago while the modern era is the weakest in the time series ..Did you get that ? ..These results are not remotely commensurate with misleading global warming extreme weather disaster narratives ..Nor the Bureau of Meteorology’s 1970 – 2021 Australian cyclone chronology that clearly shows higher cyclonic intensity and frequency prior to 1990 even when the BoM’s stated caveats of storm reclassification changes and global satellite coverage are incorporated ..Another detail I noticed in Ryan Maues global hurricane index is at least 80% of the peaks coincide [ why not run Maues time series with El Nino columns studding the graph Paul ?] with double or split year El Nino events in the Indo – Pacific which happens to be the largest ocean basin and hurricane generator on the planet ….This may be a selection effect however for reasons previously outlined although regardless it suggests natural meteorological and climatic cycles are influencing hurricane ACE and frequency – not the carbon dioxide molecule in the Earths atmosphere

  6. John Hultquist permalink
    December 4, 2022 5:36 pm

    I agree with the first 3 comments. 👍

    A few years ago, when the ‘hurricane crisis’ was just spinning up I came across Hurricane Catarina, the one and only South Atlantic tropical cyclone. Readers may be interested.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Catarina

  7. mjr permalink
    December 4, 2022 5:53 pm

    hope we get a good rebuttal tomorrow to the Earthsh*t lies and garbage. It starts with Prince William (he who has just thrown his godmother under the bus) who hopes this will all lead to a “stable” climate. Has climate ever been “stable”?

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      December 4, 2022 8:21 pm

      He needs to learn. Throwing a godmother under a bus has less effect than dropping a virgin into a volcano on The Climate©. Sadly, some of “the scientists” who carry on about the weather haven’t progressed past that point;
      they demand sacrifices from the public.
      Hmm…Carry on about the Climate has a certain ring.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      December 5, 2022 9:02 am

      “Climate” doesn’t exist as used in this context. And what time period do we look at to work out our averages? The 50,000 – 100,000 years between Ice Ages maybe? And averages? They do not describe anything and are simply human constructs. Natural processes don’t work in averages – they cannot as they are simply useful mathematical fictions.

      • December 6, 2022 3:06 pm

        I think we should ditch the idea that there are two distinct things we currently call “climate” and “weather”. This “divide” is entirely fictitious. Instead, we should see everything that happens as being part of a massive continuum spanning all time ranges and geographical extents. So instead of “climate” we start using a term that encompasses all meterological events from those taking millions of years to those taking seconds.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        December 6, 2022 4:40 pm

        Scottish Sceptic, the issue is that concepts that had some use such as “climate” have been taken to be reality when they were just useful notions to aid in understanding. As you say, reality is a continuum but that’s hard to study. Breaking down climate into chunks to make study easier is fine provided you remember that’s what you’ve done. But of course now we’ve taifn our simplified models to be complex reality with all the errors that entails.

  8. Ardy permalink
    December 4, 2022 8:28 pm

    I think Willaim Happer has them nailed, he calls climate change zelots a suicide cult. If they are successful and the CO2 levels fall them we could get famine and starvation due to plants not being able to support our population.

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      December 5, 2022 3:51 pm

      Just watched that. Very good. Thanks for the link.

  9. December 6, 2022 2:44 pm

    For some odd reason I’ve just been looking at the supposed link between vaccines and various conditions. And yet again, I am utterly appalling by the mob like lynch mob mentality of those like the lancet/BMJ who seem to have no interest in the real facts. Everything I read was unsupported assertions of what coud easily be a genuine piece of research albeit too quick to jump to a conclusion. As for my own conclusion: we genuinely don’t know, and we will not know any time soon, because there is a deliberate attempt to stop us knowing.

    So, after some genuine pondering about what the facts were, it’s nice to find a simple case of “absolutely no trend in hurricanes”.

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